Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Inductively coupled Ar/CH₄/H₂plasmas for low-temperature deposition of ordered carbon nanostructures

The study of inductively coupled Ar/CH 4/H 2 plasmas in the plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) of self-assembled carbon nanostructures (CN) was presented. A spatially averaged (global) discharge model was developed to study the densities and fluxes of the radical neutrals and charged species, the effective electron temperature, and methane conversion factors under various conditions. It was found that the deposited cation fluxes in the PECVD of CNs generally exceed those of the radical neutrals. The agreement with the optical emission spectroscopy (OES) and quadrupole mass spectrometry (QMS) was also derived through numerical results.

Nanostructures of various dimensionalities from plasma and neutral fluxes

A complex multi-scale model and numerical simulations are used to demonstrate, by simulating the development of patterns of nanotips, nanowalls, nanoislands and nanovoids of a characteristic size of 5-100 nm, a greater degree of determinism in the formation of various nanostructures by using the low-density, low-temperature plasma-based processes. It is shown that in the plasma, in contrast to the neutral gas-based processes, one can synthesize nanostructures of various dimensionalities and shapes with a larger surface density, desired geometrical parameters and narrower size distribution functions. This effect is mainly attributed to strong ion focusing by irregular electric fields in the nanopatterns, which effectively redistributes the influxes of plasma-generated building units and thus provides a selective control of their delivery to the growing nanostructures.

Ion-assisted functional monolayer coating of nanorod arrays in hydrogen plasmas

Uniformity of postprocessing of large-area, dense nanostructure arrays is currently one of the greatest challenges in nanoscience and nanofabrication. One of the major issues is to achieve a high level of control in specie fluxes to specific surface areas of the nanostructures. As suggested by the numerical experiments in this work, this goal can be achieved by manipulating microscopic ion fluxes by varying the plasma sheath and nanorod array parameters. The dynamics of ion-assisted deposition of functional monolayer coatings onto two-dimensional carbon nanorod arrays in a hydrogen plasma is simulated by using a multiscale hybrid numerical simulation. The numerical results show evidence of a strong correlation between the aspect ratios and nanopattern positioning of the nanorods, plasma sheath width, and densities and distributions of microscopic ion fluxes. When the spacing between the nanorods and/or their aspect ratios are larger, and/or the plasma sheath is wider, the density of microscopic ion current flowing to each of the individual nanorods increases, thus reducing the time required to apply a functional monolayer coating down to 11 s for a 7-μm-wide sheath, and to 5 s for a 50-μm-wide sheath. The computed monolayer coating development time is consistent with previous experimental reports on plasma-assisted functionalization of related carbon nanostructures [B. N. Khare et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 81, 5237 (2002)]. The results are generic in that they can be applied to a broader range of plasma-based processes and nanostructures, and contribute to the development of deterministic strategies of postprocessing and functionalization of various nanoarrays for nanoelectronic, biomedical, and other emerging applications.

Tailoring of ion species composition in complex plasmas with charge exchange collisions

A generic approach towards tailoring of ion species composition in reactive plasmas used for nanofabrication of various functional nanofilms and nanoassemblies, based on a simplified model of a parallel-plate rf discharge, is proposed. The model includes an idealized reactive plasma containing two neutral and two ionic species interacting via charge exchange collisions in the presence of a microdispersed solid component. It is shown that the number densities of the desired ionic species can be efficiently managed by adjusting the dilution of the working gas in a buffer gas, rates of electron impact ionization, losses of plasma species on the discharge walls, and surfaces of fine particles, charge exchange rates, and efficiency of three-body recombination processes in the plasma bulk. The results are relevant to the plasma-aided nanomanufacturing of ordered patterns of carbon nanotip and nanopyramid microemitters.

PECVD of carbon nanostructures in hydrocarbon-based RF plasmas

Different aspects of the plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition of various carbon nanostructures in the ionized gas phase of high-density, low-temperature reactive plasmas of Ar+H2+CH4 gas mixtures are studied. The growth techniques, surface morphologies, densities and fluxes of major reactive species in the discharge, and effects of the transport of the plasma-grown nanoparticles through the near-substrate plasma sheath are examined. Possible growth precursors of the carbon nanostructures are also discussed. In particular, the experimental and numerical results indicate that it is likely that the aligned carbon nanotip structures are predominantly grown by the molecular and radical units, whereas the plasma-grown nanoparticles are crucial components of polymorphous carbon films.

A large proportion of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities in the low transmission setting of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands : challenges for malaria diagnostics in an elimination setting

Background Many countries are scaling up malaria interventions towards elimination. This transition changes demands on malaria diagnostics from diagnosing ill patients to detecting parasites in all carriers including asymptomatic infections and infections with low parasite densities. Detection methods suitable to local malaria epidemiology must be selected prior to transitioning a malaria control programme to elimination. A baseline malaria survey conducted in Temotu Province, Solomon Islands in late 2008, as the first step in a provincial malaria elimination programme, provided malaria epidemiology data and an opportunity to assess how well different diagnostic methods performed in this setting. Methods During the survey, 9,491 blood samples were collected and examined by microscopy for Plasmodium species and density, with a subset also examined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). The performances of these diagnostic methods were compared. Results A total of 256 samples were positive by microscopy, giving a point prevalence of 2.7%. The species distribution was 17.5% Plasmodium falciparum and 82.4% Plasmodium vivax. In this low transmission setting, only 17.8% of the P. falciparum and 2.9% of P. vivax infected subjects were febrile (≥38°C) at the time of the survey. A significant proportion of infections detected by microscopy, 40% and 65.6% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively, had parasite density below 100/μL. There was an age correlation for the proportion of parasite density below 100/μL for P. vivax infections, but not for P. falciparum infections. PCR detected substantially more infections than microscopy (point prevalence of 8.71%), indicating a large number of subjects had sub-microscopic parasitemia. The concordance between PCR and microscopy in detecting single species was greater for P. vivax (135/162) compared to P. falciparum (36/118). The malaria RDT detected the 12 microscopy and PCR positive P. falciparum, but failed to detect 12/13 microscopy and PCR positive P. vivax infections. Conclusion Asymptomatic malaria infections and infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities are highly prevalent in Temotu province where malaria transmission is low. This presents a challenge for elimination since the large proportion of the parasite reservoir will not be detected by standard active and passive case detection. Therefore effective mass screening and treatment campaigns will most likely need more sensitive assays such as a field deployable molecular based assay.

An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

The choice of spatial scales and spatial smoothness priors for various spatial patterns

Given the drawbacks for using geo-political areas in mapping outcomes unrelated to geo-politics, a compromise is to aggregate and analyse data at the grid level. This has the advantage of allowing spatial smoothing and modelling at a biologically or physically relevant scale. This article addresses two consequent issues: the choice of the spatial smoothness prior and the scale of the grid. Firstly, we describe several spatial smoothness priors applicable for grid data and discuss the contexts in which these priors can be employed based on different aims. Two such aims are considered, i.e., to identify regions with clustering and to model spatial dependence in the data. Secondly, the choice of the grid size is shown to depend largely on the spatial patterns. We present a guide on the selection of spatial scales and smoothness priors for various point patterns based on the two aims for spatial smoothing.

Identification of genes important for growth of asymptomatic bacteriuria Escherichia coli in urine

Escherichia coli is the most important etiological agent of urinary tract infections (UTIs). Unlike uropathogenic E. coli, which causes symptomatic infections, asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU) E. coli strains typically lack essential virulence factors and colonize the bladder in the absence of symptoms. While ABU E. coli can persist in the bladder for long periods of time, little is known about the genetic determinants required for its growth and fitness in urine. To identify such genes, we have employed a transposon mutagenesis approach using the prototypic ABU E. coli strain 83972 and the clinical ABU E. coli strain VR89. Six genes involved in the biosynthesis of various amino acids and nucleobases were identified (carB, argE, argC, purA, metE, and ilvC), and site-specific mutants were subsequently constructed in E. coli 83972 and E. coli VR89 for each of these genes. In all cases, these mutants exhibited reduced growth rates and final cell densities in human urine. The growth defects could be complemented in trans as well as by supplementation with the appropriate amino acid or nucleobase. When assessed in vivo in a mouse model, E. coli 83972carAB and 83972argC showed a significantly reduced competitive advantage in the bladder and/or kidney during coinoculation experiments with the parent strain, whereas 83972metE and 83972ilvC did not. Taken together, our data have identified several biosynthesis pathways as new important fitness factors associated with the growth of ABU E. coli in human urine.

Differential effects of monotony versus fatigue on driving performance and the effectiveness of various detection methods : implications for road safety in the ACT

Background Situational driving factors, including fatigue, distraction, inattention and monotony, are recognised killers in Australia, contributing to an estimated 40% of fatal crashes and 34% of all crashes . More often than not the main contributing factor is identified as fatigue, yet poor driving performance has been found to emerge early in monotonous conditions, independent of fatigue symptoms and time on task. This early emergence suggests an important role for monotony. However, much road safety research suggests that monotony is solely a task characteristic that directly causes fatigue and associated symptoms and there remains an absence of consistent evidence explaining the relationship. Objectives We report an experimental study designed to disentangle the characteristics and effects of monotony from those associated with fatigue. Specifically, we examined whether poor driving performance associated with hypovigilance emerges as a consequence of monotony, independent of fatigue. We also examined whether monotony is a multidimensional construct, determined by environmental characteristics and/or task demands that independently moderate sustained attention and associated driving performance. Method Using a driving simulator, participants completed four, 40 minute driving scenarios. The scenarios varied in the degree of monotony as determined by the degree of variation in road design (e.g., straight roads vs. curves) and/or road side scenery. Fatigue, as well as a number of other factors known to moderate vigilance and driving performance, was controlled for. To track changes across time, driving performance was assessed in five minute time periods using a range of behavioural, subjective and physiological measures, including steering wheel movements, lane positioning, electroencephalograms, skin conductance, and oculomotor activity. Results Results indicate that driving performance is worse in monotonous driving conditions characterised by low variability in road design. Critically, performance decrements associated with monotony emerge very early, suggesting monotony effects operate independent of fatigue. Conclusion Monotony is a multi-dimensional construct where, in a driving context, roads containing low variability in design are monotonous and those high in variability are non-monotonous. Importantly, low variability in road side scenery does not appear to exacerbate monotony or associated poor performance. However, high variability in road side scenery can act as a distraction and impair sustained attention and poor performance when driving on monotonous roads. Furthermore, high sensation seekers seem to be more susceptible to distraction when driving on monotonous roads. Implications of our results for the relationship between monotony and fatigue, and the possible construct-specific detection methods in a road safety context, will be discussed.

Brief report regarding past fatigue incidents that have occurred at various BM Alliance Coal Operations mines in Queensland. Report to BM Alliance Coal Operation

This document has arisen from a request from BM Alliance Coal Operations Pty Ltd, to undertake and report on the key findings and statistics, key learning’s and recommendations for fatigue related incidents that have occurred at various BM Alliance coal operation mines in Queensland.

Brief report regarding past vehicle rollover and loss of traction incidents that have occurred at various BM Alliance Coal Operation mines in Queensland. Report to BM Alliance Coal Operation

This document has arisen from a request from BM Alliance Coal Operations Pty Ltd, to undertake and report on the key findings and statistics, key learning’s and recommendations for vehicle rollover and loss of traction (skid) incidents that have occurred at various BM Alliance coal operation mines in Queensland.

Performance-Based Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) Acceptance Procedures for In-Place Soil Testing Phase 3

One of the objectives of this study was to evaluate soil testing equipment based on its capability of measuring in-place stiffness or modulus values. As design criteria transition from empirical to mechanistic-empirical, soil test methods and equipment that measure properties such as stiffness and modulus and how they relate to Florida materials are needed. Requirements for the selected equipment are that they be portable, cost effective, reliable, a ccurate, and repeatable. A second objective is that the selected equipment measures soil properties without the use of nuclear materials.The current device used to measure soil compaction is the nuclear density gauge (NDG). Equipment evaluated in this research included lightweight deflectometers (LWD) from different manufacturers, a dynamic cone penetrometer (DCP), a GeoGauge, a Clegg impact soil tester (CIST), a Briaud compaction device (BCD), and a seismic pavement analyzer (SPA). Evaluations were conducted over ranges of measured densities and moistures.Testing (Phases I and II) was conducted in a test box and test pits. Phase III testing was conducted on materials found on five construction projects located in the Jacksonville, Florida, area. Phase I analyses determined that the GeoGauge had the lowest overall coefficient of variance (COV). In ascending order of COV were the accelerometer-type LWD, the geophone-type LWD, the DCP, the BCD, and the SPA which had the highest overall COV. As a result, the BCD and the SPA were excluded from Phase II testing.In Phase II, measurements obtained from the selected equipment were compared to the modulus values obtained by the static plate load test (PLT), the resilient modulus (MR) from laboratory testing, and the NDG measurements. To minimize soil and moisture content variability, the single spot testing sequence was developed. At each location, test results obtained from the portable equipment under evaluation were compared to the values from adjacent NDG, PLT, and laboratory MR measurements. Correlations were developed through statistical analysis. Target values were developed for various soils for verification on similar soils that were field tested in Phase III. The single spot testing sequence also was employed in Phase III, field testing performed on A-3 and A-2-4 embankments, limerock-stabilized subgrade, limerock base, and graded aggregate base found on Florida Department of Transportation construction projects. The Phase II and Phase III results provided potential trend information for future research—specifically, data collection for in-depth statistical analysis for correlations with the laboratory MR for specific soil types under specific moisture conditions. With the collection of enough data, stronger relationships could be expected between measurements from the portable equipment and the MR values. Based on the statistical analyses and the experience gained from extensive use of the equipment, the combination of the DCP and the LWD was selected for in-place soil testing for compaction control acceptance. Test methods and developmental specifications were written for the DCP and the LWD. The developmental specifications include target values for the compaction control of embankment, subgrade, and base materials.