Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Knowledge-Intensive Business Processes: Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business Processes [CEUR Workshop Proceedings, Volume 861]

Nowadays, Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) and, more generally, Process Management Systems (PMPs) are process-aware Information Systems (PAISs), are widely used to support many human organizational activities, ranging from well-understood, relatively stable and structures processes (supply chain management, postal delivery tracking, etc.) to processes that are more complicated, less structured and may exhibit a high degree of variation (health-care, emergency management, etc.). Every aspect of a business process involves a certain amount of knowledge which may be complex depending on the domain of interest. The adequate representation of this knowledge is determined by the modeling language used. Some processes behave in a way that is well understood, predictable and repeatable: the tasks are clearly delineated and the control flow is straightforward. Recent discussions, however, illustrate the increasing demand for solutions for knowledge-intensive processes, where these characteristics are less applicable. The actors involved in the conduct of a knowledge-intensive process have to deal with a high degree of uncertainty. Tasks may be hard to perform and the order in which they need to be performed may be highly variable. Modeling knowledge-intensive processes can be complex as it may be hard to capture at design-time what knowledge is available at run-time. In realistic environments, for example, actors lack important knowledge at execution time or this knowledge can become obsolete as the process progresses. Even if each actor (at some point) has perfect knowledge of the world, it may not be certain of its beliefs at later points in time, since tasks by other actors may change the world without those changes being perceived. Typically, a knowledge-intensive process cannot be adequately modeled by classical, state of the art process/workflow modeling approaches. In some respect there is a lack of maturity when it comes to capturing the semantic aspects involved, both in terms of reasoning about them. The main focus of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business processes (KiBP 2012) was investigating how techniques from different fields, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Knowledge Representation (KR), Business Process Management (BPM), Service Oriented Computing (SOC), etc., can be combined with the aim of improving the modeling and the enactment phases of a knowledge-intensive process. The 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business process (KiBP 2012) was held as part of the program of the 2012 Knowledge Representation & Reasoning International Conference (KR 2012) in Rome, Italy, in June 2012. The workshop was hosted by the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Automatica e Gestionale Antonio Ruberti of Sapienza Universita di Roma, with financial support of the University, through grant 2010-C26A107CN9 TESTMED, and the EU Commission through the projects FP7-25888 Greener Buildings and FP7-257899 Smart Vortex. This volume contains the 5 papers accepted and presented at the workshop. Each paper was reviewed by three members of the internationally renowned Program Committee. In addition, a further paper was invted for inclusion in the workshop proceedings and for presentation at the workshop. There were two keynote talks, one by Marlon Dumas (Institute of Computer Science, University of Tartu, Estonia) on "Integrated Data and Process Management: Finally?" and the other by Yves Lesperance (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, York University, Canada) on "A Logic-Based Approach to Business Processes Customization" completed the scientific program. We would like to thank all the Program Committee members for the valuable work in selecting the papers, Andrea Marrella for his valuable work as publication and publicity chair of the workshop, and Carola Aiello and the consulting agency Consulta Umbria for the organization of this successful event.

Modeling train delays in urban networks

The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.

Modelling resilience in a water supply system : contrasting conditions of drought and flood

This paper presents an approach to modelling the resilience of a generic (potable) water supply system. The system is contextualized as a meta-system consisting of three subsystems to represent the natural catchment, the water treatment plant and the water distribution infrastructure for urban use. An abstract mathematical model of the meta-system is disaggregated progressively to form a cascade of equations forming a relational matrix of models. This allows the investigation of commonly implicit relationships between various operational components within the meta system, the in-depth understanding of specific system components and influential factors and the incorporation of explicit disturbances to explore system behaviour. Consequently, this will facilitate long-term decision making to achieve sustainable solutions for issues such as, meeting a growing demand or managing supply-side influences in the meta-system under diverse water availability regimes. This approach is based on the hypothesis that the means to achieve resilient supply of water may be better managed by modelling the effects of changes at specific levels that have a direct or in some cases indirect impact on higher-order outcomes. Additionally, the proposed strategy allows the definition of approaches to combine disparate data sets to synthesise previously missing or incomplete higher-order information, a scientifically robust means to define and carry out meta-analyses using knowledge from diverse yet relatable disciplines relevant to different levels of the system and for enhancing the understanding of dependencies and inter-dependencies of variable factors at various levels across the meta-system. The proposed concept introduces an approach for modelling a complex infrastructure system as a meta system which consists of a combination of bio-ecological, technical and socio-technical subsystems.

Smart grid-demand side response model for optimization air conditioning

The growing demand of air-conditioning is one of the largest contributors to Australia’s overall electricity consumption. This has started to create peak load supply problems for some electricity utilities particularly in Queensland. This research aimed to develop consumer demand side response model to assist electricity consumers to mitigate peak demand on the electrical network. The model developed demand side response model to allow consumers to manage and control air conditioning for every period, it is called intelligent control. This research investigates optimal response of end-user toward electricity price for several cases in the near future, such as: no spike, spike and probability spike price cases. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve energy savings, reducing electricity bills (costs) to the consumer and targeting best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission.

Modeling heat and mass transfer process during convection drying of fruit

Fruit drying is a process of removing moisture to preserve fruits by preventing microbial spoilage. It increases shelf life, reduce weight and volume thus minimize packing, storage, and transportation cost and enable storage of food under ambient environment. But, it is a complex process which involves combination of heat and mass transfer and physical property change and shrinkage of the material. In this background, the aim of this paper to develop a mathematical model to simulate coupled heat and mass transfer during convective drying of fruit. This model can be used predict the temperature and moisture distribution inside the fruits during drying. Two models were developed considering shrinkage dependent and temperature dependent moisture diffusivity and the results were compared. The governing equations of heat and mass transfer are solved and a parametric study has been done with Comsol Multiphysics 4.3. The predicted results were validated with experimental data.

Sustainable, safe, smart—three key elements of Singapore’s evolving transport policies

Sustainability, safety and smartness are three key elements of a modern transportation system. This study illustrates various policy directions and initiatives of Singapore to address how its transportation system is progressing in light of these three components. Sustainability targets economical efficiency, environmental justice and social equity by including policies for integrating land use and transport planning, ensuring adequate transport supply measures, managing travel demand efficiently, and incorporating environment-friendly strategies. Safety initiatives of its transportation system aim to minimize injuries and incidents of all users including motorists, public transport commuters, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Smartness incorporates qualities like real time sensing, fast processing and decision making, and automated action-taking into its control, monitoring, information management and revenue collection systems. Various policy implications and technology applications along these three directions reveal that smart technologies facilitate implementation of policies promoting sustainability and safety. The Singapore experience could serve as a good reference for other cities in promoting a transportation system that is sustainable, safe and smart.

Conceptual modeling - an epistemological foundation

The success of contemporary organizations depends on their ability to make appropriate decisions. Making appropriate decisions is inevitably bound to the availability and provision of relevant information. Information systems should be able to provide information in an efficient way. Thus, within information systems development a detailed analysis of information supply and information demands has to prevail. Based on Syperski’s information set and subset-model we will give an epistemological foundation of information modeling in general and show, why conceptual modeling in particular is capable of specifying effective and efficient information systems. Furthermore, we derive conceptual modeling requirements based on our findings. A short example illustrates the usefulness of a conceptual data modeling technique for the specification of information systems.

An epistemological foundation of conceptual modeling

In a business environment, making the right decisions is vital for the success of a company. Making right decisions is inevitably bound to the availability and provision of relevant information. Information systems are supposed to be able to provide this information in an efficient way. Thus, within information systems development a detailed analysis of information supply and information demands has to prevail. Based on Szyperski’s information set and subset-model we will give an epistemological foundation of information modeling in general and show, why conceptual modeling in particular is capable of developing effective and efficient information systems. Furthermore, we derive conceptual modeling requirements based on our findings.

Provision of customer knowledge to supply chains

Knowledge about customers is vital for supply chains in order to ensure customer satisfaction. In an ideal supply chain environment, supply chain partners are able to perform planning tasks collaboratively, because they share information. However, customers are not always able or willing to share information with their suppliers. End consumers, on the one hand, do not usually provide a retail company with demand information. On the other hand, industrial customers might consciously hide information. Wherever a supply chain is not provided with demand forecast information, it needs to derive these demand forecasts by other means. Customer Relationship Management provides a set of tools to overcome informational uncertainty. We show how CRM and SCM information can be integrated on the conceptual as well as technical levels in order to provide supply chain managers with relevant information.

Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

Recent developments and research needs in modeling lane changing

This paper comprehensively reviews recent developments in modeling lane-changing behavior. The major lane changing models in the literature are categorized into two groups: models that aim to capture the lane changing decision-making process, and models that aim to quantify the impact of lane changing behavior on surrounding vehicles. The methodologies and important features (including their limitations) of representative models in each category are outlined and discussed. Future research needs are determined.

Modeling bus rapid transit station bus queuing for operational analysis

This paper presents mathematical models for BRT station operation, calibrated using microscopic simulation modelling. Models are presented for station capacity and bus queue length. No reliable model presently exists to estimate bus queue length. The proposed bus queue model is analogous to an unsignalized intersection queuing model.

Modeling Bus Rapid Transit station bus queuing for Bus Rapid Transit station bus operation analysis

Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy is used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. In the first of three stages, we conducted microscopic simulation modeling to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. A mathematical model was then developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time. Finally, simulation results were calibrated and validated.