Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Peak power demand reduction under moving block signalling using an expert system

The concept of moving block signallings (MBS) has been adopted in a few mass transit railway systems. When a dense queue of trains begins to move from a complete stop, the trains can re-start in very close succession under MBS. The feeding substations nearby are likely to be overloaded and the service will inevitably be disturbed unless substations of higher power rating are used. By introducing starting time delays among the trains or limiting the trains’ acceleration rate to a certain extent, the peak energy demand can be contained. However, delay is introduced and quality of service is degraded. An expert system approach is presented to provide a supervisory tool for the operators. As the knowledge base is vital for the quality of decisions to be made, the study focuses on its formulation with a balance between delay and peak power demand.

Beyond statistical procedures for predictive modelling: Data mining algorithms and support for university research at QUT

In a seminal data mining article, Leo Breiman [1] argued that to develop effective predictive classification and regression models, we need to move away from the sole dependency on statistical algorithms and embrace a wider toolkit of modeling algorithms that include data mining procedures. Nevertheless, many researchers still rely solely on statistical procedures when undertaking data modeling tasks; the sole reliance on these procedures has lead to the development of irrelevant theory and questionable research conclusions ([1], p.199). We will outline initiatives that the HPC & Research Support group is undertaking to engage researchers with data mining tools and techniques; including a new range of seminars, workshops, and one-on-one consultations covering data mining algorithms, the relationship between data mining and the research cycle, and limitations and problems with these new algorithms. Organisational limitations and restrictions to these initiatives are also discussed.

Response of tall buildings with symmetric setbacks under blast loading

This study explores three-dimensional nonlineardynamic responses of typical tall buildings with and without setbacks under blast loading. These 20 storey reinforced concrete buildings have been designed for normal (dead, live and wind)loads. The influence of the setbacks on the lateral load response due to blasts in terms of peak deflections, accelerations, inter-storey drift and bending moments at critical locations (including hinge formation) were investigated. Structural response predictions were performed with a commercially available three-dimensional finite element analysis programme using non-linear direct integration time history analyses. Results obtained for buildings with different setbacks were compared and conclusions made. The comparisons revealed that buildings have setbacks that protect the tower part above the setback level from blast loading show considerably better response in terms of peak displacement and interstorey drift, when compared to buildings without setbacks. Rotational accelerations were found to depend on the periods of the rotational modes. Abrupt changes in moments and shears are experienced near the levels of the setbacks. Typical twenty storey tall buildings with shear walls and frames that are designed for only normaln loads perform reasonably well, without catastrophic collapse, when subjected to a blast that is equivalent to 500 kg TNT at a standoff distance of 10 m.

Evaluation of spectral and texture features for object-based vegetation species classification using Support Vector Machines

The use of appropriate features to characterize an output class or object is critical for all classification problems. This paper evaluates the capability of several spectral and texture features for object-based vegetation classification at the species level using airborne high resolution multispectral imagery. Image-objects as the basic classification unit were generated through image segmentation. Statistical moments extracted from original spectral bands and vegetation index image are used as feature descriptors for image objects (i.e. tree crowns). Several state-of-art texture descriptors such as Gray-Level Co-Occurrence Matrix (GLCM), Local Binary Patterns (LBP) and its extensions are also extracted for comparison purpose. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is employed for classification in the object-feature space. The experimental results showed that incorporating spectral vegetation indices can improve the classification accuracy and obtained better results than in original spectral bands, and using moments of Ratio Vegetation Index obtained the highest average classification accuracy in our experiment. The experiments also indicate that the spectral moment features also outperform or can at least compare with the state-of-art texture descriptors in terms of classification accuracy.

A novel load transfer scheme for peak load management in rural areas

This paper proposes a novel peak load management scheme for rural areas. The scheme transfers certain customers onto local nonembedded generators during peak load periods to alleviate network under voltage problems. This paper develops and presents this system by way of a case study in Central Queensland, Australia. A methodology is presented for determining the best location for the nonembedded generators as well as the number of generators required to alleviate network problems. A control algorithm to transfer and reconnect customers is developed to ensure that the network voltage profile remains within specification under all plausible load conditions. Finally, simulations are presented to show the performance of the system over a typical maximum daily load profile with large stochastic load variations.

A statistical framework for natural feature representation

This paper presents a robust stochastic framework for the incorporation of visual observations into conventional estimation, data fusion, navigation and control algorithms. The representation combines Isomap, a non-linear dimensionality reduction algorithm, with expectation maximization, a statistical learning scheme. The joint probability distribution of this representation is computed offline based on existing training data. The training phase of the algorithm results in a nonlinear and non-Gaussian likelihood model of natural features conditioned on the underlying visual states. This generative model can be used online to instantiate likelihoods corresponding to observed visual features in real-time. The instantiated likelihoods are expressed as a Gaussian mixture model and are conveniently integrated within existing non-linear filtering algorithms. Example applications based on real visual data from heterogenous, unstructured environments demonstrate the versatility of the generative models.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

Application of higher order statistics/spectra in biomedical signals : a review

For many decades correlation and power spectrum have been primary tools for digital signal processing applications in the biomedical area. The information contained in the power spectrum is essentially that of the autocorrelation sequence; which is sufficient for complete statistical descriptions of Gaussian signals of known means. However, there are practical situations where one needs to look beyond autocorrelation of a signal to extract information regarding deviation from Gaussianity and the presence of phase relations. Higher order spectra, also known as polyspectra, are spectral representations of higher order statistics, i.e. moments and cumulants of third order and beyond. HOS (higher order statistics or higher order spectra) can detect deviations from linearity, stationarity or Gaussianity in the signal. Most of the biomedical signals are non-linear, non-stationary and non-Gaussian in nature and therefore it can be more advantageous to analyze them with HOS compared to the use of second order correlations and power spectra. In this paper we have discussed the application of HOS for different bio-signals. HOS methods of analysis are explained using a typical heart rate variability (HRV) signal and applications to other signals are reviewed.

Vibration of L-shaped plates under a deterministic force or moment excitation : a case of statistical energy analysis application

Analytical and closed form solutions are presented in this paper for the vibration response of an L-shaped plate under a point force or a moment excitation. Inter-relationships between wave components of the source and the receiving plates are clearly defined. Explicit expressions are given for the quadratic quantities such as input power, energy flow and kinetic energy distributions of the L-shaped plate. Applications of statistical energy analysis (SEA) formulation in the prediction of the vibration response of finite coupled plate structures under a single deterministic forcing are examined and quantified. It is found that the SEA method can be employed to predict the frequency averaged vibration response and energy flow of coupled plate structures under a deterministic force or moment excitation when the structural system satisfies the following conditions: (1) the coupling loss factors of the coupled subsystems are known; (2) the source location is more than a quarter of the plate bending wavelength away from the source plate edges in the point force excitation case, or is more than a quarter wavelength away from the pair of source plate edges perpendicular to the moment axis in the moment excitation case due to the directional characteristic of moment excitations. SEA overestimates the response of the L-shaped plate when the source location is less than a quarter bending wavelength away from the respective plate edges owing to wave coherence effect at the plate boundary

Association between indoor air pollution measurements and respiratory health in women and children in Lao PDR

This article presents the results of a study on the association between measured air pollutants and the respiratory health of resident women and children in Lao PDR, one of the least developed countries in Southeast Asia. The study, commissioned by the World Health Organisation, included PM10, CO and NO2 measurements made inside 181 dwellings in nine districts within two provinces in Lao PDR over a 5- month period (12/05–04/06), and respiratory health information (via questionnaires and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) measurements) for all residents in the same dwellings. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated separately for each health outcome using binary logistic regression. There was a strong and consistent positive association between NO2 and CO for almost all questionnaire-based health outcomes for both women and children. Women in dwellings with higher measured NO2 had more than triple of the odds of almost all of the health outcomes, and higher concentrations of NO2 and CO were significantly associated with lower PEFR. This study supports a growing literature confirming the role of indoor air pollution in the burden of respiratory disease in developing countries. The results will directly support changes in health and housing policy in Lao PDR.