On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.

Numerical simulation of stochastic ordinary differential equations in biomathematical modelling

In this work we discuss the effects of white and coloured noise perturbations on the parameters of a mathematical model of bacteriophage infection introduced by Beretta and Kuang in [Math. Biosc. 149 (1998) 57]. We numerically simulate the strong solutions of the resulting systems of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs), with respect to the global error, by means of numerical methods of both Euler-Taylor expansion and stochastic Runge-Kutta type.

A tool for internet chatroom surveillance

Internet chatrooms are common means of interaction and communications, and they carry valuable information about formal or ad-hoc formation of groups with diverse objectives. This work presents a fully automated surveillance system for data collection and analysis in Internet chatrooms. The system has two components: First, it has an eavesdropping tool which collects statistics on individual (chatter) and chatroom behavior. This data can be used to profile a chatroom and its chatters. Second, it has a computational discovery algorithm based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to locate hidden communities and communication patterns within a chatroom. The eavesdropping tool is used for fine tuning the SVD-based discovery algorithm which can be deployed in real-time and requires no semantic information processing. The evaluation of the system on real data shows that (i) statistical properties of different chatrooms vary significantly, thus profiling is possible, (ii) SVD-based algorithm has up to 70-80% accuracy to discover groups of chatters.

Australian copyright regimes and political economy of music

In this chapter I review the history of copyright in Australia through a singular and exemplary ruling of the Australian High Court made in 2012 and then relate that to the declining fortunes of Australian recorded music professionals. The case in point is Phonographic Performance Company [PPCA] of Australia Limited v Commonwealth of Australia [2012] HCA 8 (hereafter, HCA 8 2012). The case encapsulates the history of copyright law in Australia, with the judicial decision drawing substantive parts of its rationale from the Statute of Anne (8 Anne, c. 19, 1710), as well as copyright acts that regulated the Australian markets prior to 1968. More importantly the High Court decision serves to delineate some important political economic aspects of the recorded music professional in Australia and demonstrates Attali’s (1985) assertion that copyright is the mechanism through which composers are, by statute, literally excluded from capitalistic engagement as ‘productive labour’.

The classic white formal shirt : a powerful emblem of social change

The classic white formal shirt is a widely and readily familiar object with considerable historical cultural significance to diverse social groups, and is therefore deserving of iconic status. For more than two hundred years, this singular item of apparel has been able to define and represent status, wealth, gender shifts and fashion norms. This garment, which has historically been relinquished to undergarment status, deserves an escalation of standing. The classic white formal shirt, for both men and women, can be used as a mirror to map considerable social change and the diversity of influence can be traced through many examples, including: Beau Brummell’s dandy status with his legendry white shirting; the Gibson Girl with her decorated white shirt style blouse defining ideals of female beauty; IBM business employees in the 1920s marketing trustworthiness through the uniformity of white shirts; the fictional advertising creation of the Arrow Collar Man, with his rigid white shirt, promoting American masculine ideals; and the iconic 1980s Hugo Boss style crisp white dress shirt symbolising power. The origins of the influence of the white shirt can be best traced in the Victorian era where it was an important symbol of wealth and class distinction and a powerful emblem of sobriety and uniformity for men. The pure white colour fulfilled masculine ideals of resolute austerity and the shirt, through its constancy, epitomised conformity and dependability. For women, the white cloth of the ‘shirt-waist’ from this period was also linked to ideals of cleanliness and purity and was seen as an iconic symbol of the new independent working class woman. This paper will propose that the classic white formal shirt, for both men and women, has been a powerful marker of social shifts in Western society and this underrated item of apparel, with limited scholarly writing, is worthy of iconic status. The discussion will trace the historical development of both the men’s and women’s white shirt, each with their own unique history, and in doing so highlight the considerable historical cultural significance associated with the white formal shirt. Discussed first will be the men’s white formal shirt.

Gravity-driven fingering simulations for a thin liquid film flowing down the outside of a vertical cylinder

A numerical study is presented to examine the fingering instability of a gravity-driven thin liquid film flowing down the outer wall of a vertical cylinder. The lubrication approximation is employed to derive an evolution equation for the height of the film, which is dependent on a single parameter, the dimensionless cylinder radius. This equation is identified as a special case of that which describes thin film flow down an inclined plane. Fully three-dimensional simulations of the film depict a fingering pattern at the advancing contact line. We find the number of fingers observed in our simulations to be in excellent agreement with experimental observations and a linear stability analysis reported recently by Smolka & SeGall (Phys Fluids 23, 092103 (2011)). As the radius of the cylinder decreases, the modes of perturbation have an increased growth rate, thus increasing cylinder curvature partially acts to encourage the contact line instability. In direct competition with this behaviour, a decrease in cylinder radius means that fewer fingers are able to form around the circumference of the cylinder. Indeed, for a sufficiently small radius, a transition is observed, at which point the contact line is stable to transverse perturbations of all wavenumbers. In this regime, free surface instabilities lead to the development of wave patterns in the axial direction, and the flow features become perfectly analogous to the two-dimensional flow of a thin film down an inverted plane as studied by Lin & Kondic (Phys Fluids 22, 052105 (2010)). Finally, we simulate the flow of a single drop down the outside of the cylinder. Our results show that for drops with low volume, the cylinder curvature has the effect of increasing drop speed and hence promoting the phenomenon of pearling. On the other hand, drops with much larger volume evolve to form single long rivulets with a similar shape to a finger formed in the aforementioned simulations.

Making a name for themselves : Karen identity and the politicization of ethnicity in Burma

The history of Karen nationalism has been interpreted in terms of inter-ethnic conflict and conceptualizations of ethnicity have influenced understanding of Karen political identity. While 'Karen' incorporated various linguistic, sociocultural, religious and political sub-groups, the Karen National Union (KNU) elite promoted a singular pan-Karen identity in order to minimize such diversity. As a result, factionalism emerged between different Karen groups, obstructing the KNU's political vision and leaving many Karens dissatisfied with KNU attempts to represent their various interests. The fall of Manerplaw in 1995 was thus the result of intra-ethnic conflict as much as conflict between Karens and non-Karens

Ingenuity pathways analysis of urine metabonomics phenotypes toxicity of gentamicin in multiple organs

We introduce the use of Ingenuity Pathway Analysis to analyzing global metabonomics in order to characterize phenotypically biochemical perturbations and the potential mechanisms of the gentamicin-induced toxicity in multiple organs. A single dose of gentamicin was administered to Sprague Dawley rats (200 mg/kg, n = 6) and urine samples were collected at -24-0 h pre-dosage, 0-24, 24-48, 48-72 and 72-96 h post-dosage of gentamicin. The urine metabonomics analysis was performed by UPLC/MS, and the mass spectra signals of the detected metabolites were systematically deconvoluted and analyzed by pattern recognition analyses (Heatmap, PCA and PLS-DA), revealing a time-dependency of the biochemical perturbations induced by gentamicin toxicity. As result, the holistic metabolome change induced by gentamicin toxicity in the animal's organisms was characterized. Several metabolites involved in amino acid metabolism were identified in urine, and it was confirmed that gentamicin biochemical perturbations can be foreseen from these biomarkers. Notoriously, it was found that gentamicin induced toxicity in multiple organs system in the laboratory rats. The proof-of-knowledge based Ingenuity Pathway Analysis revealed gentamicin induced liver and heart toxicity, along with the previously known toxicity in kidney. The metabolites creatine, nicotinic acid, prostaglandin E2, and cholic acid were identified and validated as phenotypic biomarkers of gentamicin induced toxicity. Altogether, the significance of the use of metabonomics analyses in the assessment of drug toxicity is highlighted once more; furthermore, this work demonstrated the powerful predictive potential of the Ingenuity Pathway Analysis to study of drug toxicity and its valuable complementation for metabonomics based assessment of the drug toxicity.

Plasma metabolomics reveals biomarkers of the atherosclerosis

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in industrialized societies. The lack of metabolite biomarkers has impeded the clinical diagnosis of atherosclerosis so far. In this study, stable atherosclerosis patients (n=16) and age- and sex-matched non-atherosclerosis healthy subjects (n=28) were recruited from the local community (Harbin, P. R. China). The plasma was collected from each study subject and was subjected to metabolomics analysis by GC/MS. Pattern recognition analyses (principal components analysis, orthogonal partial least-squares discriminate analysis, and hierarchical clustering analysis) commonly demonstrated plasma metabolome, which was significantly different from atherosclerotic and non-atherosclerotic subjects. The development of atherosclerosis-induced metabolic perturbations of fatty acids, such as palmitate, stearate, and 1-monolinoleoylglycerol, was confirmed consistent with previous publication, showing that palmitate significantly contributes to atherosclerosis development via targeting apoptosis and inflammation pathways. Altogether, this study demonstrated that the development of atherosclerosis directly perturbed fatty acid metabolism, especially that of palmitate, which was confirmed as a phenotypic biomarker for clinical diagnosis of atherosclerosis.

Metabolite profiling and pathway analysis of acute hepatitis rats by UPLC-ESI MS combined with pattern recognition methods

BACKGROUND & AIMS Metabolomics is comprehensive analysis of low-molecular-weight endogenous metabolites in a biological sample. It could enable mapping of perturbations of early biochemical changes in diseases and hence provide an opportunity to develop predictive biomarkers that could provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of diseases. The aim of this study was to elucidate the changes in endogenous metabolites and to phenotype the metabolic profiling of d-galactosamine (GalN)-inducing acute hepatitis in rats by UPLC-ESI MS. METHODS The systemic biochemical actions of GalN administration (ip, 400 mg/kg) have been investigated in male wistar rats using conventional clinical chemistry, liver histopathology and metabolomic analysis of UPLC- ESI MS of urine. The urine was collected predose (-24 to 0 h) and 0-24, 24-48, 48-72, 72-96 h post-dose. Mass spectrometry of the urine was analysed visually and via conjunction with multivariate data analysis. RESULTS Results demonstrated that there was a time-dependent biochemical effect of GalN dosed on the levels of a range of low-molecular-weight metabolites in urine, which was correlated with developing phase of the GalN-inducing acute hepatitis. Urinary excretion of beta-hydroxybutanoic acid and citric acid was decreased following GalN dosing, whereas that of glycocholic acid, indole-3-acetic acid, sphinganine, n-acetyl-l-phenylalanine, cholic acid and creatinine excretion was increased, which suggests that several key metabolic pathways such as energy metabolism, lipid metabolism and amino acid metabolism were perturbed by GalN. CONCLUSION This metabolomic investigation demonstrates that this robust non-invasive tool offers insight into the metabolic states of diseases.

Estimating the robustness of long-haul train plans

In Australia, and elsewhere, the movement of trains on long-haul rail networks is usually planned in advance. Typically, a train plan is developed to confirm that the required train movements and track maintenance activities can occur. The plan specifies when track segments will be occupied by particular trains and maintenance activities. On the day of operation, a train controller monitors and controls the movement of trains and maintenance crews, and updates the train plan in response to unplanned disruptions. It can be difficult to predict how good a plan will be in practice. The main performance indicator for a train service should be reliability - the proportion of trains running the service that complete at or before the scheduled time. We define the robustness of a planned train service to be the expected reliability. The robustness of individual train services and for a train plan as a whole can be estimated by simulating the train plan many times with random, but realistic, perturbations to train departure times and segment durations, and then analysing the distributions of arrival times. This process can also be used to set arrival times that will achieve a desired level of robustness for each train service.

Girls and violence : the case for a feminist theory of female violence

Rises recorded for girls’ violence in countries like Australia, Canada, United Kingdom and United States have been hotly contested. One view is these rising rates of violence are an artefact of new forms of policy, policing, criminalisation and social control over young women. Another view is that young women may indeed have become more violent as they have increasingly participated in youth subcultural activities involving gangs and drugs, and cyber‐cultural activities that incite and reward girls’ violence. Any comprehensive explanation will need to address how a complex interplay of cultural, social, behavioural, and policy responses contribute to these rises. This article argues that there is no singular cause, explanation or theory that accounts for the rises in adolescent female violence, and that many of the simple explanations circulating in popular culture are driven by an anti‐feminist ideology. By concentrating on females as victims of violence and very rarely as perpetrators, feminist criminology has for the most part ducked the thorny issue of female violence, leaving a discursive space for anti‐feminist sentiment to reign. The article concludes by arguing the case for developing a feminist theory of female violence.

Epistatic effects of potassium channel variation on cardiac repolarization and atrial fibrillation risk

Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of cardiac K+ channel gene variants in families with atrial fibrillation (AF). Background The K+ channels play a major role in atrial repolarization but single mutations in cardiac K+ channel genes are infrequently present in AF families. The collective effect of background K+ channel variants of varying prevalence and effect size on the atrial substrate for AF is largely unexplored. Methods Genes encoding the major cardiac K+ channels were resequenced in 80 AF probands. Nonsynonymous coding sequence variants identified in AF probands were evaluated in 240 control subjects. Novel variants were characterized using patch-clamp techniques and in silico modeling was performed using the Courtemanche atrial cell model. Results Nineteen nonsynonymous variants in 9 genes were found, including 11 rare variants. Rare variants were more frequent in AF probands (18.8% vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001), and the mean number of variants was greater (0.21 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). The majority of K+ channel variants individually had modest functional effects. Modeling simulations to evaluate combinations of K+ channel variants of varying population frequency indicated that simultaneous small perturbations of multiple current densities had nonlinear interactions and could result in substantial (>30 ms) shortening or lengthening of action potential duration as well as increased dispersion of repolarization. Conclusions Families with AF show an excess of rare functional K+ channel gene variants of varying phenotypic effect size that may contribute to an atrial arrhythmogenic substrate. Atrial cell modeling is a useful tool to assess epistatic interactions between multiple variants.

The effect of surface tension and kinetic undercooling on a radially-symmetric melting problem

The addition of surface tension to the classical Stefan problem for melting a sphere causes the solution to blow up at a finite time before complete melting takes place. This singular behaviour is characterised by the speed of the solid-melt interface and the flux of heat at the interface both becoming unbounded in the blow-up limit. In this paper, we use numerical simulation for a particular energy-conserving one-phase version of the problem to show that kinetic undercooling regularises this blow-up, so that the model with both surface tension and kinetic undercooling has solutions that are regular right up to complete melting. By examining the regime in which the dimensionless kinetic undercooling parameter is small, our results demonstrate how physically realistic solutions to this Stefan problem are consistent with observations of abrupt melting of nanoscaled particles.

Teaching sociology within teacher education : revisiting, realigning and re-embedding

This paper uses theoretical resources from the sociology of education to consider the teaching of sociology in teacher education programs in Australia. Once a disciplinary ‘pillar’ of teacher education, sociology’s contribution has become less explicit while more integrated, with consequences for disciplinary identity. Here we explore how sociology is taught in teacher education curricula on two fronts. Firstly we outline how sociology is embedded as one of a number of competing perspectives in foundational studies, and its pedagogic consequences. Then we consider the powerful contribution of sociology in literacy studies, amidst public debate about literacy performance. The analysis draws on Bernstein’s (2000) distinction between singular disciplinary curriculum design and practically-oriented regional curriculum design. We seek to trouble the commonsense binary between theory and practice that structures debates around professional education in higher education more broadly, and to dignify service sociology as a valuable, generative site for the discipline’s future.