Weak conformance of process models with respect to data objects

Process models specify behavioral aspects by describing ordering constraints between tasks which must be accomplished to achieve envisioned goals. Tasks usually exchange information by means of data objects, i.e., by writing information to and reading information from data objects. A data object can be characterized by its states and allowed state transitions. In this paper, we propose a notion which checks conformance of a process model with respect to data objects that its tasks access. This new notion can be used to tell whether in every execution of a process model each time a task needs to access a data object in a particular state, it is ensured that the data object is in the expected state or can reach the expected state and, hence, the process model can achieve its goals.

Impacts of vessel capacity reduction programmes on efficiency in fisheries : the case of Australia’s multispecies northern prawn fishery

Capacity reduction programmes, in the form of buybacks or decommissioning, have had relatively widespread application in fisheries in the US, Europe and Australia. A common criticism of such programmes is that they remove the least efficient vessels first, resulting in an increase in average efficiency of the remaining fleet, which tends to increase the effective fishing power of the remaining fleet. In this paper, the effects of a buyback programme on average technical efficiency in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery are examined using a multi-output production function approach with an explicit inefficiency model. As expected, the results indicate that average efficiency of the remaining vessels was generally greater than that of the removed vessels. Further, there was some evidence of an increase in average scale efficiency in the fleet as the remaining vessels were closer, on average, to the optimal scale. Key factors affecting technical efficiency included company structure and the number of vessels fishing. In regard to fleet size, our model suggests positive externalities associated with more boats fishing at any point in time (due to information sharing and reduced search costs), but also negative externalities due to crowding, with the latter effect dominating the former. Hence, the buyback resulted in a net increase in the individual efficiency of the remaining vessels due to reduced crowding, as well as raising average efficiency through removal of less efficient vessels.

Bluetooth vehicle trajectory by fusing Bluetooth and loops : motorway travel time statistics

Loop detectors are widely used on the motorway networks where they provide point speed and traffic volumes. Models have been proposed for temporal and spatial generalization of speed for average travel time estimation. Advancement in technology provides complementary data sources such as Bluetooth MAC Scanner (BMS), detecting the MAC ID of the Bluetooth devices transported by the traveller. Matching the data from two BMS stations provides individual vehicle travel time. Generally, on the motorways loops are closely spaced, whereas BMS are placed few kilometres apart. In this research, we fuse BMSs and loops data to define the trajectories of the Bluetooth vehicles. The trajectories are utilised to estimate the travel time statistics between any two points along the motorway. The proposed model is tested using simulation and validated with real data from Pacific motorway, Brisbane. Comparing the model with the linear interpolation based trajectory provides significant improvements.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

The impact of mobile phone distraction on the braking behaviour of young drivers : a hazard-based duration model

Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

A numerical method for the fractional Fitzhugh–Nagumo monodomain model

A fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions is presented, generalising the standard monodomain model that describes the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. The model consists of a coupled fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and a system of ordinary differential equations, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. We solve this model by decoupling the space-fractional partial differential equation and the system of ordinary differential equations at each time step. Thus, this means treating the fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model as if the nonlinear source term is only locally Lipschitz. The fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is solved using an implicit numerical method with the shifted Grunwald–Letnikov approximation, and the stability and convergence are discussed in detail in the context of the local Lipschitz property. Some numerical examples are given to show the consistency of our computational approach.

Exploring with Grammar in the Primary Years: Learning about Language in the Australian Curriculum: English

This new volume, Exploring with Grammar in the Primary Years (Exley, Kevin & Mantei, 2014), follows on from Playing with Grammar in the Early Years (Exley & Kervin, 2013). We extend our thanks to the ALEA membership for their take up of the first volume and the vibrant conversations around our first attempt at developing a pedagogy for the teaching of grammar in the early years. Your engagement at locally held ALEA events has motivated us to complete this second volume and reassert our interest in the pursuit of socially-just outcomes in the primary years. As noted in Exley and Kervin (2013), we believe that mastering a range of literacy competences includes not only the technical skills for learning, but also the resources for viewing and constructing the world (Freire and Macdeo, 1987). Rather than seeing knowledge about language as the accumulation of technical skills alone, the viewpoint to which we subscribe treats knowledge about language as a dialectic that evolves from, is situated in, and contributes to active participation within a social arena (Halliday, 1978). We acknowledge that to explore is to engage in processes of discovery as we look closely and examine the opportunities before us. As such, we draw on Janks’ (2000; 2014) critical literacy theory to underpin many of the learning experiences in this text. Janks (2000) argues that effective participation in society requires knowledge about how the power of language promotes views, beliefs and values of certain groups to the exclusion of others. Powerful language users can identify not only how readers are positioned by these views, but also the ways these views are conveyed through the design of the text, that is, the combination of vocabulary, syntax, image, movement and sound. Similarly, powerful designers of texts can make careful modal choices in written and visual design to promote certain perspectives that position readers and viewers in new ways to consider more diverse points of view. As the title of our text suggests, our activities are designed to support learners in exploring the design of texts to achieve certain purposes and to consider the potential for the sharing of their own views through text production. In Exploring with Grammar in the Primary Years, we focus on the Year 3 to Year 6 grouping in line with the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s (hereafter ACARA) advice on the ‘nature of learners’ (ACARA, 2014). Our goal in this publication is to provide a range of highly practical strategies for scaffolding students’ learning through some of the Content Descriptions from the Australian Curriculum: English Version 7.2, hereafter AC:E (ACARA, 2014). We continue to express our belief in the power of using whole texts from a range of authentic sources including high quality children’s literature, the internet, and examples of community-based texts to expose students to the richness of language. Taking time to look at language patterns within actual texts is a pathway to ‘…capture interest, stir the imagination and absorb the [child]’ into the world of language and literacy (Saxby, 1993, p. 55). It is our intention to be more overt this time and send a stronger message that our learning experiences are simply ‘sample’ activities rather than a teachers’ workbook or a program of study to be followed. We’re hoping that teachers and students will continue to explore their bookshelves, the internet and their community for texts that provide powerful opportunities to engage with language-based learning experiences. In the following three sections, we have tried to remain faithful to our interpretation of the AC:E Content Descriptions without giving an exhaustive explanation of the grammatical terms. This recently released curriculum offers a new theoretical approach to building students’ knowledge about language. The AC:E uses selected traditional terms through an approach developed in systemic functional linguistics (see Halliday and Matthiessen, 2004) to highlight the dynamic forms and functions of multimodal language in texts. For example, the following statement, taken from the ‘Language: Knowing about the English language’ strand states: English uses standard grammatical terminology within a contextual framework, in which language choices are seen to vary according to the topics at hand, the nature and proximity of the relationships between the language users, and the modalities or channels of communication available (ACARA, 2014). Put simply, traditional grammar terms are used within a functional framework made up of field, tenor, and mode. An understanding of genre is noted with the reference to a ‘contextual framework’. The ‘topics at hand’ concern the field or subject matter of the text. The ‘relationships between the language users’ is a description of tenor. There is reference to ‘modalities’, such as spoken, written or visual text. We posit that this innovative approach is necessary for working with contemporary multimodal and cross-cultural texts (see Exley & Mills, 2012). Other excellent tomes, such as Derewianka (2011), Humphrey, Droga and Feez (2012), and Rossbridge and Rushton (2011) provide more comprehensive explanations of this unique metalanguage, as does the AC:E Glossary. We’ve reproduced some of the AC:E Glossary at the end of this publication. We’ve also kept the same layout for our learning experiences, ensuring that our teacher notes are not only succinct but also prudent in their placement. Each learning experience is connected to a Content Description from the AC:E and contains an experience with an identified purpose, suggested resource text and a possible sequence for the experience that always commences with an orientation to text followed by an examination of a particular grammatical resource. Our plans allow for focused discussion, shared exploration and opportunities to revisit the same text for the purpose of enhancing meaning making. Some learning experiences finish with deconstruction of a stimulus text while others invite students to engage in the design of new texts. We encourage you to look for opportunities in your own classrooms to move from text deconstruction to text design. In this way, students can express not only their emerging grammatical understandings, but also the ways they might position readers or viewers through the creation of their own texts. We expect that each of these learning experiences will vary in the time taken. Some may indeed take a couple if not a few teaching episodes to work through, especially if students are meeting a concept or a pedagogical strategy for the first time. We hope you use as much, or as little, of each experience as is needed for your students. We do not want the teaching of grammar to slip into a crisis of irrelevance or to be seen as a series of worksheet drills with finite answers. We firmly believe that strategies for effective deconstruction and design practice, however, have much portability. We three are very keen to hear from teachers who are adopting and adapting these learning experiences in their classrooms. Please email us on b.exley@qut.edu.au, lkervin@uow.edu.au or jessicam@ouw.edu.au. We’d love to continue the conversation with you over time. Beryl Exley, Lisa Kervin & Jessica Mantei

A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

The time taken for the regional distribution of ventilation to stabilise: An investigation using electrical impedance tomography

Electrical impedance tomography is a novel technology capable of quantifying ventilation distribution in the lung in real time during various therapeutic manoeuvres. The technique requires changes to the patient’s position to place the electrical impedance tomography electrodes circumferentially around the thorax. The impact of these position changes on the time taken to stabilise the regional distribution of ventilation determined by electrical impedance tomography is unknown. This study aimed to determine the time taken for the regional distribution of ventilation determined by electrical impedance tomography to stabilise after changing position. Eight healthy, male volunteers were connected to electrical impedance tomography and a pneumotachometer. After 30 minutes stabilisation supine, participants were moved into 60 degrees Fowler’s position and then returned to supine. Thirty minutes was spent in each position. Concurrent readings of ventilation distribution and tidal volumes were taken every five minutes. A mixed regression model with a random intercept was used to compare the positions and changes over time. The anterior-posterior distribution stabilised after ten minutes in Fowler’s position and ten minutes after returning to supine. Left-right stabilisation was achieved after 15 minutes in Fowler’s position and supine. A minimum of 15 minutes of stabilisation should be allowed for spontaneously breathing individuals when assessing ventilation distribution. This time allows stabilisation to occur in the anterior-posterior direction as well as the left-right direction.

A mouse model for spondyloepiphyseal dysplasia congenita with secondary osteoarthritis due to a Col2a1 mutation

Progeny of mice treated with the mutagen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) revealed a mouse, designated Longpockets (Lpk), with short humeri, abnormal vertebrae, and disorganized growth plates, features consistent with spondyloepiphyseal dysplasia congenita (SEDC). The Lpk phenotype was inherited as an autosomal dominant trait. Lpk/+ mice were viable and fertile and Lpk/Lpk mice died perinatally. Lpk was mapped to chromosome 15 and mutational analysis of likely candidates from the interval revealed a Col2a1 missense Ser1386Pro mutation. Transient transfection of wild-type and Ser1386Pro mutant Col2a1 c-Myc constructs in COS-7 cells and CH8 chondrocytes demonstrated abnormal processing and endoplasmic reticulum retention of the mutant protein. Histology revealed growth plate disorganization in 14-day-old Lpk/+ mice and embryonic cartilage from Lpk/+ and Lpk/Lpk mice had reduced safranin-O and type-II collagen staining in the extracellular matrix. The wild-type and Lpk/+ embryos had vertical columns of proliferating chondrocytes, whereas those in Lpk/Lpk mice were perpendicular to the direction of bone growth. Electron microscopy of cartilage from 18.5 dpc wild-type, Lpk/+, and Lpk/Lpk embryos revealed fewer and less elaborate collagen fibrils in the mutants, with enlarged vacuoles in the endoplasmic reticulum that contained amorphous inclusions. Micro-computed tomography (CT) scans of 12-week-old Lpk/+ mice revealed them to have decreased bone mineral density, and total bone volume, with erosions and osteophytes at the joints. Thus, an ENU mouse model with a Ser1386Pro mutation of the Col2a1 C-propeptide domain that results in abnormal collagen processing and phenotypic features consistent with SEDC and secondary osteoarthritis has been established.

Simulated systems optimization through response surface techniques [Optimización de sistemas simulados a través de técnicas de superficie de respuesta]

The purpose of this article is to show the applicability and benefits of the techniques of design of experiments as an optimization tool for discrete simulation models. The simulated systems are computational representations of real-life systems; its characteristics include a constant evolution that follows the occurrence of discrete events along the time. In this study, a production system, designed with the business philosophy JIT (Just in Time) is used, which seeks to achieve excellence in organizations through waste reduction in all the operational aspects. The most typical tool of JIT systems is the KANBAN production control that seeks to synchronize demand with flow of materials, minimize work in process, and define production metrics. Using experimental design techniques for stochastic optimization, the impact of the operational factors on the efficiency of the KANBAN / CONWIP simulation model is analyzed. The results show the effectiveness of the integration of experimental design techniques and discrete simulation models in the calculation of the operational parameters. Furthermore, the reliability of the methodologies found was improved with a new statistical consideration.

Flow pattern analysis in a highly stenotic patient-specific carotid bifurcation model using a turbulence model

The aim of this study is to investigate the blood flow pattern in carotid bifurcation with a high degree of luminal stenosis, combining in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A newly developed two-equation transitional model was employed to evaluate wall shear stress (WSS) distribution and pressure drop across the stenosis, which are closely related to plaque vulnerability. A patient with an 80% left carotid stenosis was imaged using high resolution MRI, from which a patient-specific geometry was reconstructed and flow boundary conditions were acquired for CFD simulation. A transitional model was implemented to investigate the flow velocity and WSS distribution in the patient-specific model. The peak time-averaged WSS value of approximately 73Pa was predicted by the transitional flow model, and the regions of high WSS occurred at the throat of the stenosis. High oscillatory shear index values up to 0.50 were present in a helical flow pattern from the outer wall of the internal carotid artery immediately after the throat. This study shows the potential suitability of a transitional turbulent flow model in capturing the flow phenomena in severely stenosed carotid arteries using patient-specific MRI data and provides the basis for further investigation of the links between haemodynamic variables and plaque vulnerability. It may be useful in the future for risk assessment of patients with carotid disease.

How critical is fibrous cap thickness to carotid plaque stability? A flow-plaque interaction model

Background and Purpose Acute cerebral ischemic events are associated with rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Factors such as luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness have been thought to be important risk factors for plaque rupture. We used a flow-structure interaction model to simulate the interaction between blood flow and atheromatous plaque to evaluate the effect of the degree of luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness on plaque vulnerability. Methods A coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with a flow-plaque interaction simulation was used to perform flow and stress/strain analysis in a stenotic carotid artery model. The stress distribution within the plaque and the flow conditions within the vessel were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2 mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 95%. A rupture stress of 300 kPa was chosen to indicate a high risk of plaque rupture. A 1-sample t test was used to compare plaque stresses with the rupture stress. Results High stress concentrations were found in the plaques in arteries with >70% degree of stenosis. Plaque stresses in arteries with 30% to 70% stenosis increased exponentially as fibrous cap thickness decreased. A decrease of fibrous cap thickness from 0.4 to 0.2 mm resulted in an increase of plaque stress from 141 to 409 kPa in a 40% degree stenotic artery. Conclusions There is an increase in plaque stress in arteries with a thin fibrous cap. The presence of a moderate carotid stenosis (30% to 70%) with a thin fibrous cap indicates a high risk for plaque rupture. Patients in the future may be risk stratified by measuring both fibrous cap thickness and luminal stenosis.

Output feedback control of networked systems with a stochastic communication protocol

This paper addresses an output feedback control problem for a class of networked control systems (NCSs) with a stochastic communication protocol. Under the scenario that only one sensor is allowed to obtain the communication access at each transmission instant, a stochastic communication protocol is first defined, where the communication access is modelled by a discrete-time Markov chain with partly unknown transition probabilities. Secondly, by use of a network-based output feedback control strategy and a time-delay division method, the closed-loop system is modeled as a stochastic system with multi time-varying delays, where the inherent characteristic of the network delay is well considered to improve the control performance. Then, based on the above constructed stochastic model, two sufficient conditions are derived for ensuring the mean-square stability and stabilization of the system under consideration. Finally, two examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.