Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).

Institutional response and Indigenous experiences of Cyclone Tracy

Early on Christmas morning 1974 Tropical Cyclone Tracy, a Category 4 storm, devastated the Northern Territory city of Darwin leaving only 6% of the city’s housing habitable. The extent of the disaster was largely the result of unregulated and poorly constructed buildings, predominantly housing. While the engineering and reconstruction process demonstrated a very successful response and adaptation to an existing and future risk, the impact of the cyclone of the local community and its Indigenous population in particular, had not been well recorded. NCCARF therefore commissioned a report on the Indigenous experience of Cyclone Tracy to document how Indigenous people were impacted by, responded to, and recovered from Cyclone Tracy in comparison to non-Indigenous groups. The report also considers the research literature on disasters and Indigenous people in the Northern Territory, with a specific focus on cyclones, and considers the socio-political context of Indigenous communities in Darwin prior to Cyclone Tracy.

The effect of prior visual information on recognition of speech and sounds

To identify and categorize complex stimuli such as familiar objects or speech, the human brain integrates information that is abstracted at multiple levels from its sensory inputs. Using cross-modal priming for spoken words and sounds, this functional magnetic resonance imaging study identified 3 distinct classes of visuoauditory incongruency effects: visuoauditory incongruency effects were selective for 1) spoken words in the left superior temporal sulcus (STS), 2) environmental sounds in the left angular gyrus (AG), and 3) both words and sounds in the lateral and medial prefrontal cortices (IFS/mPFC). From a cognitive perspective, these incongruency effects suggest that prior visual information influences the neural processes underlying speech and sound recognition at multiple levels, with the STS being involved in phonological, AG in semantic, and mPFC/IFS in higher conceptual processing. In terms of neural mechanisms, effective connectivity analyses (dynamic causal modeling) suggest that these incongruency effects may emerge via greater bottom-up effects from early auditory regions to intermediate multisensory integration areas (i.e., STS and AG). This is consistent with a predictive coding perspective on hierarchical Bayesian inference in the cortex where the domain of the prediction error (phonological vs. semantic) determines its regional expression (middle temporal gyrus/STS vs. AG/intraparietal sulcus).

Awards before and after the Nobel Prize : a Matthew effect and/or a ticket to one's own funeral?

The primary aim of this descriptive exploration of scientists’ life cycle award patterns is to evaluate whether awards breed further awards and identify researcher experiences after reception of the Nobel Prize. To achieve this goal, we collected data on the number of awards received each year for 50 years before and after Nobel Prize reception by all 1901–2000 Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, and medicine or physiology. Our results indicate an increasing rate of awards before Nobel reception, reaching the summit precisely in the year of the Nobel Prize. After this pinnacle year, awards drop sharply. This result is confirmed by separate analyses of three different disciplines and by a random-effects negative binomial regression model. Such an effect, however, does not emerge for more recent Nobel laureates (1971–2000). In addition, Nobelists in medicine or physiology generate more awards shortly before and after prize reception, whereas laureates in chemistry attract more awards as time progresses.

Is there a potential relationship between prior h amstring strain injury and increased risk for future a nterior cruciate ligament injury?

Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) are the most prevalent injury in a number of sports, and while anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are less common, they are far more severe and have long-term implications, such as an increased risk of developing osteoarthritis later in life. Given the high incidence and severity of these injuries, they are key targets of injury preventive programs in elite sport. Evidence has shown that a previous severe knee injury (including ACL injury) increases the risk of HSI; however, whether the functional deficits that occur after HSI result in an increased risk of ACL injury has yet to be considered. In this clinical commentary, we present evidence that suggests that the link between previous HSI and increased risk of ACL injury requires further investigation by drawing parallels between deficits in hamstring function after HSI and in women athletes, who are more prone to ACL injury than men athletes. Comparisons between the neuromuscular function of the male and female hamstring has shown that women display lower hamstring-to-quadriceps strength ratios during isokinetic knee flexion and extension, increased activation of the quadriceps compared with the hamstrings during a stop-jump landing task, a greater time required to reach maximal isokinetic hamstring torque, and lower integrated myoelectrical hamstring activity during a sidestep cutting maneuver. Somewhat similarly, in athletes with a history of HSI, the previously injured limb, compared with the uninjured limb, displays lower eccentric knee flexor strength, a lower hamstrings-to-quadriceps strength ratio, lower voluntary myoelectrical activity during maximal knee flexor eccentric contraction, a lower knee flexor eccentric rate of torque development, and lower voluntary myoelectrical activity during the initial portion of eccentric contraction. Given that the medial and lateral hamstrings have different actions at the knee joint in the coronal plane, which hamstring head is previously injured might also be expected to influence the likelihood of future ACL. Whether the deficits in function after HSI, as seen in laboratory-based studies, translate to deficits in hamstring function during typical injurious tasks for ACL injury has yet to be determined but should be a consideration for future work.

Relationships between maternal overweight prior to pregnancy, feeding mode and infant feeding beliefs and practices

Aim To examine whether pre-pregnancy weight status was associated with maternal feeding beliefs and practices in the early post-partum period. Methods Secondary analysis of longitudinal data from Australian mothers. Participants (N=486) were divided into two weight status groups based on self-reported pre-pregnancy weight and measured height: healthy weight (BMI <25kg/m2; n=321) and overweight (BMI>25kg/m2; n=165). Feeding beliefs and practices were self-reported via an established questionnaire that assessed concerns about infant overeating and undereating, awareness of infant cues, feeding to a schedule, and using food to calm. Results Infants of overweight mothers were more likely to have been given solid foods in the previous 24hrs (29% vs 20%) and fewer were fully breastfed (50% vs 64%). Multivariable regression analyses (adjusted for maternal education, parity, average infant weekly weight gain, feeding mode and introduction of solids) revealed pre-pregnancy weight status was not associated with using food to calm, concern about undereating, awareness of infant cues or feeding to a schedule. However feeding mode was associated with feeding beliefs and practices. Conclusions Although no evidence for a relationship between maternal weight status and early maternal feeding beliefs and practices was observed, differences in feeding mode and early introduction of solids was observed. The emergence of a relationship between feeding practices and maternal weight status may occur when the children are older, solid feeding is established and they become more independent in feeding.

Sensorineural hearing loss after treatment for head and neck cancer : a review of the literature

Background Definitive cisplatin-based is increasingly delivered as the treatment of choice for patients with head and neck cancer. Sensorineural hearing loss is a significant long term side effect of cisplatin-based chemoradiation and is associated with potential major quality of life issues for patients. Purpose The purpose of this manuscript was to review the mechanism behind sensorineural hearing loss in patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation, including incidence, the contributions of radiotherapy and cisplatin to sensorineural hearing loss and the impact of the toxicity on patient quality of life. Methods Database searches were conducted through PubMed (National Centre for Biotechnology Information) and OvidSP Medline via the Queensland University of Technology Library website. General article searches were conducted through the online search engine Google Scholar. Articles were excluded if the full-text was unavailable, they were not in English or if they were published prior to 1990. Keywords included hearing loss, ototoxicity, cancer, quality of life, cisplatin and radiotherapy. Results/Discussion The total number of journal articles accessed was 290. Due to exclusion criteria, 129 articles were deemed appropriated for review. Findings indicated that sensorineural hearing loss is a significant, long term complication for patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation. Current literature recognises the ototoxic effects of cisplatin and cranial irradiation as separate entities, however the impact of combined modality therapy on sensorineural hearing loss is seldom reported. Multiple risk factors for hearing loss are described, however there are contradictory opinions on incidence and severity and the exact radiation dose threshold responsible for inducing hearing loss in patients receiving combined modality therapy. Sensorineural hearing loss creates a subset of complexities for patients with head and neck cancer and that these patients face significant quality of life impairment. Conclusion The literature review identified that sensorineural hearing loss is a major quality of life issue for patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation for head and neck cancer. Further investigation evaluating the contribution of cisplatin-based chemoradiation to sensorineural hearing loss and the subsequent effect on patient quality of life is warranted.

Herds of methane chambers grazing bubbles

Water to air methane emissions from freshwater reservoirs can be dominated by sediment bubbling (ebullitive) events. Previous work to quantify methane bubbling from a number of Australian sub-tropical reservoirs has shown that this can contribute as much as 95% of total emissions. These bubbling events are controlled by a variety of different factors including water depth, surface and internal waves, wind seiching, atmospheric pressure changes and water levels changes. Key to quantifying the magnitude of this emission pathway is estimating both the bubbling rate as well as the areal extent of bubbling. Both bubbling rate and areal extent are seldom constant and require persistent monitoring over extended time periods before true estimates can be generated. In this paper we present a novel system for persistent monitoring of both bubbling rate and areal extent using multiple robotic surface chambers and adaptive sampling (grazing) algorithms to automate the quantification process. Individual chambers are self-propelled and guided and communicate between each other without the need for supervised control. They can maintain station at a sampling site for a desired incubation period and continuously monitor, record and report fluxes during the incubation. To exploit the methane sensor detection capabilities, the chamber can be automatically lowered to decrease the head-space and increase concentration. The grazing algorithms assign a hierarchical order to chambers within a preselected zone. Chambers then converge on the individual recording the highest 15 minute bubbling rate. Individuals maintain a specified distance apart from each other during each sampling period before all individuals are then required to move to different locations based on a sampling algorithm (systematic or adaptive) exploiting prior measurements. This system has been field tested on a large-scale subtropical reservoir, Little Nerang Dam, and over monthly timescales. Using this technique, localised bubbling zones on the water storage were found to produce over 50,000 mg m-2 d-1 and the areal extent ranged from 1.8 to 7% of the total reservoir area. The drivers behind these changes as well as lessons learnt from the system implementation are presented. This system exploits relatively cheap materials, sensing and computing and can be applied to a wide variety of aquatic and terrestrial systems.

Large-scale interlaboratory study to develop, analytically validate and apply highly multiplexed, quantitative peptide assays to measure cancer-relevant proteins in plasma

There is an increasing need in biology and clinical medicine to robustly and reliably measure tens-to-hundreds of peptides and proteins in clinical and biological samples with high sensitivity, specificity, reproducibility and repeatability. Previously, we demonstrated that LC-MRM-MS with isotope dilution has suitable performance for quantitative measurements of small numbers of relatively abundant proteins in human plasma, and that the resulting assays can be transferred across laboratories while maintaining high reproducibility and quantitative precision. Here we significantly extend that earlier work, demonstrating that 11 laboratories using 14 LC-MS systems can develop, determine analytical figures of merit, and apply highly multiplexed MRM-MS assays targeting 125 peptides derived from 27 cancer-relevant proteins and 7 control proteins to precisely and reproducibly measure the analytes in human plasma. To ensure consistent generation of high quality data we incorporated a system suitability protocol (SSP) into our experimental design. The SSP enabled real-time monitoring of LC-MRM-MS performance during assay development and implementation, facilitating early detection and correction of chromatographic and instrumental problems. Low to sub-nanogram/mL sensitivity for proteins in plasma was achieved by one-step immunoaffinity depletion of 14 abundant plasma proteins prior to analysis. Median intra- and inter-laboratory reproducibility was <20%, sufficient for most biological studies and candidate protein biomarker verification. Digestion recovery of peptides was assessed and quantitative accuracy improved using heavy isotope labeled versions of the proteins as internal standards. Using the highly multiplexed assay, participating laboratories were able to precisely and reproducibly determine the levels of a series of analytes in blinded samples used to simulate an inter-laboratory clinical study of patient samples. Our study further establishes that LC-MRM-MS using stable isotope dilution, with appropriate attention to analytical validation and appropriate quality c`ontrol measures, enables sensitive, specific, reproducible and quantitative measurements of proteins and peptides in complex biological matrices such as plasma.

Prior and posterior linear pooling for combining expert opinions: Uses and impact on Bayesian Networks

The use of expert knowledge to quantify a Bayesian Network (BN) is necessary when data is not available. This however raises questions regarding how opinions from multiple experts can be used in a BN. Linear pooling is a popular method for combining probability assessments from multiple experts. In particular, Prior Linear Pooling (PrLP), which pools opinions then places them into the BN is a common method. This paper firstly proposes an alternative pooling method, Posterior Linear Pooling (PoLP). This method constructs a BN for each expert, then pools the resulting probabilities at the nodes of interest. Secondly, it investigates the advantages and disadvantages of using these pooling methods to combine the opinions of multiple experts. Finally, the methods are applied to an existing BN, the Wayfinding Bayesian Network Model, to investigate the behaviour of different groups of people and how these different methods may be able to capture such differences. The paper focusses on 6 nodes Human Factors, Environmental Factors, Wayfinding, Communication, Visual Elements of Communication and Navigation Pathway, and three subgroups Gender (female, male),Travel Experience (experienced, inexperienced), and Travel Purpose (business, personal) and finds that different behaviors can indeed be captured by the different methods.

Ants, apples and the ABCs: The use of commercial phonics programmes in prior-to-school children's services

Commercial phonics programmes (e.g. Jolly Phonics and Letterland) are becoming widely used in the early years of school. These programmes claim to use a systematic explicit approach, considered as the preferred method of phonics instruction for teaching alphabetic code-breaking skills in Australia and the UK in the first years of school (Department of Education, Science and Training, 2005; Rose, 2006). However, little is known about the extent to which they are being used in prior-to-school settings, and the reasons behind decisions to use them. This study surveyed 283 early childhood staff in Sydney, Australia and found that commercial phonics programmes were being used in 36% of the early childhood settings surveyed. Staff with early childhood univer- sity qualifications and staff working in not-for-profit service types were less likely to use a commercial phonics programme than staff without university qualifications and staff working in for-profit services. Staff with less than 10 years’ experience were also more likely to use a commercial phonics programme. The rationale behind decisions deter- mining whether or not staff used the programmes ranged from pragmatic reasons, such as parent pressure or higher management decisions, to pedagogical reasons, such as teacher beliefs about how children learn to read and write. The practices staff engage in to teach phonics are explored.

Pre-packaging preschool literacy: What drives early childhood teachers to use commercially produced phonics programs in prior to school settings

Language-rich environments are key to overall quality in early childhood settings, including frequent child–staff interactions around picture books and dramatic play. In a language-rich environment, explicit teaching of literacy concepts, such as phonics, is embedded in authentic and meaningful situations where alphabet letters and sounds are taught in a context meaningful to the child. Recent research, however, suggests that the use of commercial pre-packaged phonics programs (such as Letterland and Jolly Phonics) is widespread in prior to school settings in Sydney, Australia. Little is known about why early childhood teachers choose to use such programs with children aged five and under. In the present study, thematic analysis of data from interviews with five early childhood teachers using commercial phonics programs found that their reasons were pragmatic rather than pedagogical. Motivations included the idea that the programs reduced their workload, provided tangible evidence to parents of their child’s ‘school readiness’, and served as a marketing tool to attract parents. Further analysis found that the teachers were unable to articulate what phonics and phonological awareness are and how they are learnt in early childhood.

Feeling the pressure: Early childhood educators’ reported views about learning and teaching phonics in Australian prior-to-school settings

Early childhood educators’ beliefs about literacy teaching can impact on the types of phonics experiences educators provide for children in prior-to-school settings. The Australian Early Years Learning Framework supports a play-based, intentional approach to teaching phonics, however little is known about what Australian early childhood educators believe is important in teaching phonics in the prior-to-school years. Using a qualitative content analysis, this research study investigates 115 early childhood educators’ views about how phonics should be taught and the use of commercially produced phonics programs (e.g. Jolly Phonics and Letterland) in prior-to-school settings. This study further investigates educators’ perceived pressures to include structured phonics lessons, as a way of addressing parental notions of ‘school readiness’. The results of this study indicate conflicting views were held about how phonics should be taught. Some educators also experienced external pressures to engage in literacy practices that may be in opposition with their own beliefs about how literacy is learnt. This study provides insights into the pedagogical practices early childhood educators believe are appropriate when teaching phonics. The educational implications are discussed.