Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Passive control of a bi-ventricular assist device : an experimental and numerical investigation

For the last two decades heart disease has been the highest single cause of death for the human population. With an alarming number of patients requiring heart transplant, and donations not able to satisfy the demand, treatment looks to mechanical alternatives. Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices, VADs, are miniature pumps which can be implanted alongside the heart to assist its pumping function. These constant flow devices are smaller, more efficient and promise a longer operational life than more traditional pulsatile VADs. The development of rotary VADs has focused on single pumps assisting the left ventricle only to supply blood for the body. In many patients however, failure of both ventricles demands that an additional pulsatile device be used to support the failing right ventricle. This condition renders them hospital bound while they wait for an unlikely heart donation. Reported attempts to use two rotary pumps to support both ventricles concurrently have warned of inherent haemodynamic instability. Poor balancing of the pumps’ flow rates quickly leads to vascular congestion increasing the risk of oedema and ventricular ‘suckdown’ occluding the inlet to the pump. This thesis introduces a novel Bi-Ventricular Assist Device (BiVAD) configuration where the pump outputs are passively balanced by vascular pressure. The BiVAD consists of two rotary pumps straddling the mechanical passive controller. Fluctuations in vascular pressure induce small deflections within both pumps adjusting their outputs allowing them to maintain arterial pressure. To optimise the passive controller’s interaction with the circulation, the controller’s dynamic response is optimised with a spring, mass, damper arrangement. This two part study presents a comprehensive assessment of the prototype’s ‘viability’ as a support device. Its ‘viability’ was considered based on its sensitivity to pathogenic haemodynamics and the ability of the passive response to maintain healthy circulation. The first part of the study is an experimental investigation where a prototype device was designed and built, and then tested in a pulsatile mock circulation loop. The BiVAD was subjected to a range of haemodynamic imbalances as well as a dynamic analysis to assess the functionality of the mechanical damper. The second part introduces the development of a numerical program to simulate human circulation supported by the passively controlled BiVAD. Both investigations showed that the prototype was able to mimic the native baroreceptor response. Simulating hypertension, poor flow balancing and subsequent ventricular failure during BiVAD support allowed the passive controller’s response to be assessed. Triggered by the resulting pressure imbalance, the controller responded by passively adjusting the VAD outputs in order to maintain healthy arterial pressures. This baroreceptor-like response demonstrated the inherent stability of the auto regulating BiVAD prototype. Simulating pulmonary hypertension in the more observable numerical model, however, revealed a serious issue with the passive response. The subsequent decrease in venous return into the left heart went unnoticed by the passive controller. Meanwhile the coupled nature of the passive response not only decreased RVAD output to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure, but it also increased LVAD output. Consequently, the LVAD increased fluid evacuation from the left ventricle, LV, and so actually accelerated the onset of LV collapse. It was concluded that despite the inherently stable baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller, its lack of sensitivity to venous return made it unviable in its present configuration. The study revealed a number of other important findings. Perhaps the most significant was that the reduced pulse experienced during constant flow support unbalanced the ratio of effective resistances of both vascular circuits. Even during steady rotary support therefore, the resulting ventricle volume imbalance increased the likelihood of suckdown. Additionally, mechanical damping of the passive controller’s response successfully filtered out pressure fluctuations from residual ventricular function. Finally, the importance of recognising inertial contributions to blood flow in the atria and ventricles in a numerical simulation were highlighted. This thesis documents the first attempt to create a fully auto regulated rotary cardiac assist device. Initial results encourage development of an inlet configuration sensitive to low flow such as collapsible inlet cannulae. Combining this with the existing baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller will render a highly stable passively controlled BiVAD configuration. The prototype controller’s passive interaction with the vasculature is a significant step towards a highly stable new generation of artificial heart.

Enhancing research and development: designing collaborative environments for innovation

Work environments have previously been studied to identify the strategies, structures and processes which increase the likelihood of creativity, innovation and collaboration for productive workplaces. A number of perspectives have emerged which identify social and cognitive factors known to contribute to or to restrict innovation and collaboration. Recently more attention has been given to designing physical environments to encourage processes relevant to innovation such as creativity (McCoy & Evans, 2002) knowledge sharing (Hemlin, Allwood & Martin, 2008) and collaboration (Bozeman & Corley, 2004). Some attention has been given specifically to research and development environments (Boutellier et al, 2008) but little integration of this research has occurred. In the context of the construction of new purpose-built premises which will bring together under one roof separate public sector agencies engaged in research and development in agriculture, natural resource systems and the environment, this paper examines the extant literature and develops initial propositions for research relevant to the transition, collaboration and performance of research and development in new organizational environments where traditional boundaries have been redrawn.

Managing knowledge in an outsourcing environment

What an organisation does versus what it out-sources to the market is a classic boundaries of the firm question that has previously been dominated by efficiency arguments. However, a knowledge-based view suggests these boundaries are integral to the ability of a firm to deploy existing knowledge stocks efficiently, as well as develop new knowledge through learning that will drive future competitiveness. Furthermore, the nature of these boundaries, in respect of their permeability is critical in understanding the likelihood of knowledge flowing into and out of the organisation. Using these concepts, we present a case study of Main Roads Western Australia to illustrate how these principles have allowed it to start rebuilding its internal capabilities through repositioning its operational boundaries and via ensuring their boundaries are highly porous as they move more major projects into alliance contracts.

Sustainable construction for the future - the role of government in energy efficiency and sustainability in buildings

This paper will summarise the findings from a study that explored the link between dwelling design, or type, and energy efficiencies in sub-tropical climates. An increasing number of government and private sector development companies are initiating projects that aim to deliver enhanced environmental outcomes at both sub-divisional and dwelling levels. The study used AccuRate, a new thermal modelling tool developed by CSIRO that responds to the need to improve ventilation modelling. The study found that dwellings developed in conjunction with the Departments of Housing and Public Works have set the benchmark. It provides a snapshot of the energy efficiency of a range of dwelling types found in recent subdivisions. However, the trend toward increasing urban densities may reduce the likelihood that cooling breezes will be available to cool dwellings. The findings are relevant to regulators, designers and industry in all states interested in reducing the energy used to cool dwellings in summer.

Best Practice Guide : Clients

The Guide contains the distilled findings from a major, two-year research project to explore those factors considered by industry practitioners to be critical to the successful adoption of ICT, both within their firms and between their firms and their trading partners. In the context of this project Critical Success Factors (CSFs) have been defined as, “Those things that absolutely, positively must be attended to in order to maximise the likelihood of a successful outcome for the stakeholder, defined in the stakeholder’s terms.” The guide includes: o Perceived benefits of ICT use across the head contractors’ sector o Types and levels of ICT used across the sector o Self-assessment tool o CSFs for high-level ICT users, including o Best Practice Profiles o Action Statements The material contained in this Guide has been generated following a number of principles: o For a given situation there is not a single ‘right answer’, but a number of solutions that have to be evaluated using a range of relevant factors. o Since there are as many solutions as there are ‘solvers’, factors for evaluation will ‘emerge’ from collective wisdom.

Best Practice Guide : Consultants

The Guide contains the distilled findings from a major, two-year research project to explore those factors considered by industry practitioners to be critical to the successful adoption of ICT, both within their firms and between their firms and their trading partners. In the context of this project Critical Success Factors (CSFs) have been defined as, “Those things that absolutely, positively must be attended to in order to maximise the likelihood of a successful outcome for the stakeholder, defined in the stakeholder’s terms.” The guide includes: o Perceived benefits of ICT use across the consultants’ sector o Types and levels of ICT used across the sector o Self-assessment tool o CSFs for medium- and high-level ICT users, including o Best Practice Profiles o Action Statements o Barriers to ICT use for low-level users o Action Statements The material contained in this Guide has been generated following a number of principles: o For a given situation there is not a single ‘right answer’, but a number of solutions that have to be evaluated using a range of relevant factors. o As there are as many solutions as there are ‘solvers’, factors for evaluation will ‘emerge’ from collective wisdom.

Best Practice Guide : Head Contractors

The Guide contains the distilled findings from a major, two-year research project to explore those factors considered by industry practitioners to be critical to the successful adoption of ICT, both within their firms and between their firms and their trading partners. In the context of this project Critical Success Factors (CSFs) have been defined as, “Those things that absolutely, positively must be attended to in order to maximise the likelihood of a successful outcome for the stakeholder, defined in the stakeholder’s terms.” The guide includes: o Perceived benefits of ICT use across the head contractors’ sector o Types and levels of ICT used across the sector o Self-assessment tool o CSFs for medium- and high-level ICT users, including o Best Practice Profiles o Action Statements The material contained in this Guide has been generated following a number of principles: o For a given situation there is not a single ‘right answer’, but a number of solutions that have to be evaluated using a range of relevant factors. o Since there are as many solutions as there are ‘solvers’, factors for evaluation will ‘emerge’ from collective wisdom.

Best Practice Guide : Subcontractors

The Guide contains the distilled findings from a major, two-year research project to explore those factors considered by industry practitioners to be critical to the successful adoption of ICT, both within their firms and between their firms and their trading partners. In the context of this project Critical Success Factors (CSFs) have been defined as, “Those things that absolutely, positively must be attended to in order to maximise the likelihood of a successful outcome for the stakeholder, defined in the stakeholder’s terms.” The guide includes: o Perceived benefits of ICT use across the subcontractors’ sector o Types and levels of ICT used across the sector o Self-assessment tool o CSFs for medium- and high-level ICT users, including o Best Practice Profiles o Action Statements o Barriers to ICT use for low-level users o Action Statements The material contained in this Guide has been generated following a number of principles: o For a given situation there is not a single ‘right answer’, but a number of solutions that have to be evaluated using a range of relevant factors. o As there are as many solutions as there are ‘solvers’, factors for evaluation will ‘emerge’ from collective wisdom.

Continuation rates and reasons for removal among Implanon® users accessing two family planning clinics in Queensland, Australia

Background - This study examined demographic profile, continuation rates and reasons for removal among Implanon^® users accessing two family planning clinics in Queensland, Australia. Study Design - A retrospective chart audit of 976 women who attended for implant insertion over a 3-year period between May 2001 and May 2004. Results - Continuation rates showed that at 6 months after insertion, 94% of women continued, 74% continued at 1 year and 50% continued at 2 years. Metropolitan women were more likely than rural women to discontinue use because of dissatisfaction with bleeding patterns. Cox regression analysis showed that those attending the regional clinic experienced significantly shorter time to removal. Conclusions - Implanon® continuation rates and reasons for removal differ between clinics in metropolitan and rural locations. A cooling-off period did not affect the likelihood of continuation with Implanon®. Preinsertion counselling should emphasize potential changes in bleeding patterns.

Intentions and willingness to use complementary and alternative medicines : what potential patients believe about CAMs

This paper explores the intentions and willingness of a sample of Australian consumers (N = 356) to use Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM). Participants considered using CAMs at least once in the next two months and rated the likelihood of certain consequences of CAM use, whether important others would approve, and if barriers would prevent them from using CAMs. People intending to use CAMs (high intenders) were more likely than those low on intention (low intenders) to endorse positive outcomes of CAM use and believe that important others would support their CAM use. High intenders were less likely than low intenders to believe that barriers would prevent use. Low intenders (n = 200) were also asked to consider their response to a free CAM trial. Those willing to accept a trial were more likely than those unwilling to believe that CAMs could improve health and less likely to believe that laziness would prevent use. These results identify important beliefs which may influence people’s decisions to use CAMs.

Mutation frequency of non-ESBL phenotype SENTRY (Asia-Pacific) isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae conversion to an ESBL positive phenotype

Extended spectrum β-lactamases or ESBLs, which are derived from non-ESBL precursors by point mutation of β-lactamase genes (bla), are spreading rapidly all over the world and have caused considerable problems in the treatment of infections caused by bacteria which harbour them. The mechanism of this resistance is not fully understood and a better understanding of these mechanisms might significantly impact on choosing proper diagnostic and treatment strategies. Previous work on SHV β-lactamase gene, blaSHV, has shown that only Klebsiella pneumoniae strains which contain plasmid-borne blaSHV are able to mutate to phenotypically ESBL-positive strains and there was also evidence of an increase in blaSHV copy number. Therefore, it was hypothesised that although specific point mutation is essential for acquisition of ESBL activity, it is not yet enough, and blaSHV copy number amplification is also essential for an ESBL-positive phenotype, with homologous recombination being the likely mechanism of blaSHV copy number expansion. In this study, we investigated the mutation rate of non-ESBL expressing K. pneumoniae isolates to an ESBL-positive status by using the MSS-maximum likelihood method. Our data showed that blaSHV mutation rate of a non-ESBL expressing isolate is lower than the mutation rate of the other single base changes on the chromosome, even with a plasmid-borne blaSHV gene. On the other hand, mutation rate from a low MIC ESBL-positive (≤ 8 µg/mL for cefotaxime) to high MIC ESBL-positive (≥16 µg/mL for cefotaxime) is very high. This is because only gene copy number increase is needed which is probably mediated by homologous recombination that typically takes place at a much higher frequencies than point mutations. Using a subinhibitory concentration of novobiocin, as a homologous recombination inhibitor, revealed that this is the case.

The distribution and spread of citrus canker in Emerald, Australia

Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.

Measuring cognitive and dispositional characteristics of creativity in elementary students

This article describes the theoretical underpinning and development of a measurement instrument that provides teachers with a tool to observe the personal creativity characteristics of individual students. The instrument was developed by compiling a list of characteristics derived from the literature to be indicative of the personal characteristics of creative people. The list was then reduced by grouping like characteristics to 9 cognitive and dispositional traits that were considered appropriate for elementary students. The 9-item instrument was then administered in 24 classrooms to 520 Year 6 and Year 7 students. Factor analysis using maximum likelihood extraction with an oblimin rotation revealed a single factor with an eigenvalue greater than 1 and accounting for 63% of the variance. All 9 items on this factor loaded at .72 or greater. The results indicated that the Creativity Checklist has very high internal consistency and is a reliable measurement instrument (a = .93).

Early detection : a strategy to reduce risk and severity?

Despite changes in surgical techniques, radiotherapy targeting and the apparent earlier detection of cancers, secondary lymphoedema is still a significant problem for about 20–30% of those who receive treatment for cancer, although the incidence and prevalence does seem to be falling. The figures above generally relate to detection of an enlarged limb or other area, but it seems that about 60% of all patients also suffer other problems with how the limb feels, what can or cannot be done with it and a range of social or psychological issues. Often these ‘subjective’ changes occur before the objective ones, such as a change in arm volume or circumference. For most of those treated for cancer lymphoedema does not develop immediately, and, while about 60–70% develop it in the first few years, some do not develop lymphoedema for up to 15 or 20 years. Those who will develop clinically manifest lymphoedema in the future are, for some time, in a latent or hidden phase of lymphoedema. There also seems to be some risk factors which are indicators for a higher likelihood of lymphoedema post treatment, including oedema at the surgical site, arm dominance, age, skin conditions, and body mass index (BMI).