Essays in the political economy of voting and reforms

This thesis presents four essays in the political economy of elections and reforms. The first study exploits discontinuities around school entry cut-off dates to show that early childhood conditions can impact the probability to become a top-flight politician. The second study provides empirical estimates of the effect of sequential voting on turnout and bandwagon voting outside the laboratory. The third work describes a novel nonparametric strategy to identify tactical voting patterns directly from balloting results using British election data. Finally, a study is put forward that examines the political feasibility of reforms.

Synthesis of diketopyrrolopyrrole based copolymers via the direct arylation method for p-channel and ambipolar OFETs

In this paper, we have synthesized two novel diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) based donor-acceptor (D-A) copolymers poly{3,6-dithiophene-2-yl-2,5-di(2-octyl)- pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4-dione-alt-1,5-bis(dodecyloxy)naphthalene} (PDPPT-NAP) and poly{3,6-dithiophene-2-yl-2,5-di(2-butyldecyl)-pyrrolo[3,4-c]pyrrole-1,4- dione-alt-2-dodecyl-2H-benzo[d][1,2,3]triazole} (PDPPT-BTRZ) via direct arylation organometallic coupling. Both copolymers contain a common electron withdrawing DPP building block which is combined with electron donating alkoxy naphthalene and electron withdrawing alkyl-triazole comonomers. The number average molecular weight (Mn) determined by gel permeation chromatography (GPC) for polymer PDPPT-NAP is around 23 400 g mol-1 whereas for polymer PDPPT-BTRZ it is 18 600 g mol-1. The solid state absorption spectra of these copolymers show a wide range of absorption from 400 nm to 1000 nm with optical band gaps calculated from absorption cut off values in the range of 1.45-1.30 eV. The HOMO values determined for PDPPT-NAP and PDPPT-BTRZ copolymers from photoelectron spectroscopy in air (PESA) data are 5.15 eV and 5.25 eV respectively. These polymers exhibit promising p-channel and ambipolar behaviour when used as an active layer in organic thin-film transistor (OTFT) devices. The highest hole mobility measured for polymer PDPPT-NAP is around 0.0046 cm2 V-1 s-1 whereas the best ambipolar performance was calculated for PDPPT-BTRZ with a hole and electron mobility of 0.01 cm2 V-1 s-1 and 0.006 cm2 V-1 s-1.

Isoindigo dye incorporated copolymers with naphthalene and anthracene: promising materials for stable organic field effect transistors

In this paper, we report the design and synthesis of isoindigo based low band gap polymer semiconductors, poly{N,N′-(2-octyldodecyl)-isoindigo-alt- naphthalene} (PISD-NAP) and poly{N,N′-(2-octyldodecyl)-isoindigo-alt- anthracene} (PISD-ANT). A series of donor-acceptor (D-A) copolymers can be prepared where donor and acceptor conjugated blocks can be attached alternately using organometallic coupling. In these polymers, an isoindigo dye acceptor moiety has been attached alternately with naphthalene and anthracene donor comonomer blocks by Suzuki coupling. PISD-NAP and PISD-ANT exhibit excellent solution processibility and good film-forming properties. Gel permeation chromatography exhibits a higher molecular mass with lower polydispersity. UV-vis-NIR absorption of these polymers exhibits a wide absorption band ranging from 300 nm to 800 nm, indicating the low band gap nature of the polymers. Optical band gaps calculated from the solid state absorption cutoff value for PISD-NAP and PISD-ANT are around 1.80 eV and 1.75 eV, respectively. Highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) values calculated respectively for PISD-NAP and PISD-ANT thin films on glass substrate by photoelectron spectroscopy in air (PESA) are 5.66 eV and 5.53 eV, indicative of the good stability of these materials in organic electronic device applications. These polymers exhibit p-channel charge transport characteristics when used as the active semiconductor in organic thin-film transistor (OTFT) devices in ambient conditions. The highest hole mobility of 0.013 cm2 V-1 s-1 is achieved in top contact and bottom-gate OTFT devices for PISD-ANT, whereas polymer PISD-NAP exhibited a hole mobility of 0.004 cm2 V -1 s-1. When these polymer semiconductors were used as a donor and PC71BM as an acceptor in OPV devices, the highest power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 1.13% is obtained for the PISD-ANT polymer.

Multiscale features and information extraction of online strain for long-span bridges

The strain data acquired from structural health monitoring (SHM) systems play an important role in the state monitoring and damage identification of bridges. Due to the environmental complexity of civil structures, a better understanding of the actual strain data will help filling the gap between theoretical/laboratorial results and practical application. In the study, the multi-scale features of strain response are first revealed after abundant investigations on the actual data from two typical long-span bridges. Results show that, strain types at the three typical temporal scales of 10^5, 10^2 and 10^0 sec are caused by temperature change, trains and heavy trucks, and have their respective cut-off frequency in the order of 10^-2, 10^-1 and 10^0 Hz. Multi-resolution analysis and wavelet shrinkage are applied for separating and extracting these strain types. During the above process, two methods for determining thresholds are introduced. The excellent ability of wavelet transform on simultaneously time-frequency analysis leads to an effective information extraction. After extraction, the strain data will be compressed at an attractive ratio. This research may contribute to a further understanding of actual strain data of long-span bridges; also, the proposed extracting methodology is applicable on actual SHM systems.

Novel solutions for a model of wound healing angiogenesis

We prove the existence of novel, shock-fronted travelling wave solutions to a model of wound healing angiogenesis studied in Pettet et al (2000 IMA J. Math. App. Med. 17 395–413) assuming two conjectures hold. In the previous work, the authors showed that for certain parameter values, a heteroclinic orbit in the phase plane representing a smooth travelling wave solution exists. However, upon varying one of the parameters, the heteroclinic orbit was destroyed, or rather cut-off, by a wall of singularities in the phase plane. As a result, they concluded that under this parameter regime no travelling wave solutions existed. Using techniques from geometric singular perturbation theory and canard theory, we show that a travelling wave solution actually still exists for this parameter regime. We construct a heteroclinic orbit passing through the wall of singularities via a folded saddle canard point onto a repelling slow manifold. The orbit leaves this manifold via the fast dynamics and lands on the attracting slow manifold, finally connecting to its end state. This new travelling wave is no longer smooth but exhibits a sharp front or shock. Finally, we identify regions in parameter space where we expect that similar solutions exist. Moreover, we discuss the possibility of more exotic solutions.

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in older patients admitted to acute care hospitals and discharged to residential aged care facilities

Background The frequency of prescribing potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in older patients remains high regardless of the evidence of adverse outcomes from their use. This study aims to identify the prevalence and nature of PIMs at admission to acute care and at discharge to residential aged care facilities (RACFs) using the recently updated Beers’ Criteria. We also aim to identify if polypharmacy, age, gender and the frailty status of patients are independent risk factors for receiving a PIM. Methods This was a retrospective study of 206 patients discharged to RACFs from acute care. All patients were aged at least70 years and were admitted between July 2005 and May 2010; their admission and discharge medications were evaluated. Frailty status was measured as the Frailty Index (FI), adding each individual’s deficits and dividing by the total number of deficits considered, with FI 0.25 used as the cut-off between “fit” and “frail”. Results Mean patient age was 84.8 ± 6.7 years; the majority (57%) were older than 85 years and approximately 90% were frail. Patients were prescribed a mean of 7.2 regular medications at admission and 8.1 on discharge. At least one PIM was identified in 112 (54.4%) patients on admission and 102 (49.5%) patients on discharge. Of all medications prescribed at admission (1728), 10.8% were PIMs and at discharge of 1759 medications, 9.6% were PIMs. Of the total 187 PIMs on admission, 56 (30%) were stopped, and 131 were continued; 32 new PIMs were introduced. Commonly prescribed PIMs at both admission and discharge were central nervous system, cardiovascular and gastrointestinal drugs and analgesics. Of the potential risk factors, frailty status was the only significant predictor of PIMs at both admission and discharge (p = 0.016). Conclusion A high prevalence of unnecessary drug use was observed in frail older patients on admission to acute care hospitals and on discharge to RACFs. The only association with PIM use was the frailty status of patients. Further studies are needed to further evaluate this association.

Sustainability of public health interventions to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure at severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Severe dioxin contamination at Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases, Vietnam is of international concern. Public Health risk reduction programs were implemented in Bien Hoa in 2007-2009 and in Da Nang in 2009-2011. In 2009 and 2011 we reported the encouraging results of these interventions in improving the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of local residents in reducing the dioxin exposure risk through foods. In 2013 we revisited these dioxin hot spots, aimed to evaluate whether the results of the intervention were maintained and to identify factors affecting the sustainability of the programs. To assess this, 16 in-depth interviews, six focus group discussions, and pre and post intervention KAP surveys were undertaken. 800 respondents from six intervention wards and 200 respondents from Buu Long Ward (the control site) were randomly selected to participate in the surveys. The results showed that as of 2013, the programs were rated as "moderately sustained" with a score of 3.3 out of 5.0 (cut off points 2.5 to <3.5) for Bien Hoa, and "well sustained" with a score of 3.8 out of 5.0 (cut off points 3.5 to <4.5) for Da Nang. Most formal intervention program activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities were no longer integrated into local routine health education programs. However, the main outcomes were maintained and were better than that in the control ward. Migration, lack of official guidance from City People's Committees and local authorities as well as the politically sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the sustainability of the programs.

Towards a consistent definition of a significant delta troponin with z-scores: A way out of chaos?

Aims: We assessed the diagnostic performance of z-scores to define a significant delta cardiac troponin (cTn) in a cohort of patients with well-defined clinical outcomes. Methods: We calculated z-scores, which are dependent on the analytical precision and biological variation, to report changes in cTn. We compared the diagnostic performances of a relative delta (%Δ), actual delta (Δ), and z-scores in 762 emergency department patients with symptoms of suspected acute coronary syndrome. cTn was measured with sensitive cTnI (Beckman Coulter), highly sensitive cTnI (Abbott), and highly sensitive cTnT (Roche) assays. Results: Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed no statistically significant differences in the areas under the curve (AUC) of z-scores and Δ with both superior compared to %Δ for all three assays (p<0.001). The AUCs of z-scores measured with the Abbott hs-cTnI (0.955) and Roche hs-cTnT (0.922) assays were comparable to Beckman Coulter cTnI (0.933) (p=0.272 and 0.640, respectively). The individualized Δ cut-off values that were required to emulate a z-score of 1.96 were: Beckman Coulter cTnI 30 ng/l, Abbott hs-cTnI 20 ng/l, and Roche hs-cTnT 7 ng/l. Conclusions: z-scores allow the use of a single cut-off value at all cTn levels, for both cTnI and cTnT and for sensitive and highly sensitive assays, with comparable diagnostic performances. This strategy of reporting significant changes as z-scores may obviate the need for the empirical development of assay-specific cut-off rules to define significant troponin changes.

Can perceptual indices estimate physiological strain across a range of environments and metabolic workloads when wearing explosive ordnance disposal and chemical protective clothing?

Objective Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) often requires technicians to wear multiple protective garments in challenging environmental conditions. The accumulative effect of increased metabolic cost coupled with decreased heat dissipation associated with these garments predisposes technicians to high levels of physiological strain. It has been proposed that a perceptual strain index (PeSI) using subjective ratings of thermal sensation and perceived exertion as surrogate measures of core body temperature and heart rate, may provide an accurate estimation of physiological strain. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if the PeSI could estimate the physiological strain index (PSI) across a range of metabolic workloads and environments while wearing heavy EOD and chemical protective clothing. Methods Eleven healthy males wore an EOD and chemical protective ensemble while walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km·h− 1 at 1% grade in environmental conditions equivalent to wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 21, 30 and 37 °C. WBGT conditions were randomly presented and a maximum of three randomised treadmill walking trials were completed in a single testing day. Trials were ceased at a maximum of 60-min or until the attainment of termination criteria. A Pearson's correlation coefficient, mixed linear model, absolute agreement and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the relationship between the PeSI and PSI. Results A significant moderate relationship between the PeSI and the PSI was observed [r = 0.77; p < 0.001; mean difference = 0.8 ± 1.1 a.u. (modified 95% limits of agreement − 1.3 to 3.0)]. The ROC curves indicated that the PeSI had a good predictive power when used with two, single-threshold cut-offs to differentiate between low and high levels of physiological strain (area under curve: PSI three cut-off = 0.936 and seven cut-off = 0.841). Conclusions These findings support the use of the PeSI for monitoring physiological strain while wearing EOD and chemical protective clothing. However, future research is needed to confirm the validity of the PeSI for active EOD technicians operating in the field.

Extending the validity of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire

Background Feeding practices are commonly examined as potentially modifiable determinants of children’s eating behaviours and weight status. Although a variety of questionnaires exist to assess different feeding aspects, many lack thorough reliability and validity testing. The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) is a tool designed to measure early feeding practices related to non-responsive feeding and structure of the meal environment. Face validity, factorial validity, internal reliability and cross-sectional correlations with children’s eating behaviours have been established in mothers with 2-year-old children. The aim of the present study was to further extend the validity of the FPSQ by examining factorial, construct and predictive validity, and stability. Methods Participants were from the NOURISH randomised controlled trial which evaluated an intervention with first-time mothers designed to promote protective feeding practices. Maternal feeding practices (FP) and child eating behaviours were assessed when children were aged 2 years and 3.7 years (n=388). Confirmatory Factor analysis, group differences, predictive relationships, and stability were tested. Results The original 9-factor structure was confirmed when children were aged 3.7±0.3 years. Cronbach’s alpha was above the recommended 0.70 cut-off for all factors except Structured Meal Timing, Over Restriction and Distrust in Appetite which were 0.58, 0.67 and 0.66 respectively. Allocated group differences reflected behaviour consistent with intervention content and all feeding practices were stable across both time points (range of r= 0.45-0.70). There was some evidence for the predictive validity of factors with 2 FP showing expected relationships, 2 FP showing expected and unexpected relationships and 5 FP showing no relationship. Conclusions Reliability and validity was demonstrated for most subscales of the FPSQ. Future validation is warranted with culturally diverse samples and with fathers and other caregivers. The use of additional outcomes to further explore predictive validity is recommended as well as testing construct validity and test-retest reliability of the questionnaire.

Defining the light emitting area for displays in the unipolar regime of highly efficient light emitting transistors

Light-emitting field effect transistors (LEFETs) are an emerging class of multifunctional optoelectronic devices. It combines the light emitting function of an OLED with the switching function of a transistor in a single device architecture the dual functionality of LEFETs has the potential applications in active matrix displays. However, the key problem of existing LEFETs thus far has been their low EQEs at high brightness, poor ON/OFF and poorly defined light emitting area-a thin emissive zone at the edge of the electrodes. Here we report heterostructure LEFETs based on solution processed unipolar charge transport and an emissive polymer that have an EQE of up to 1% at a brightness of 1350a €...cd/m 2, ON/OFF ratio > 10 4 and a well-defined light emitting zone suitable for display pixel design. We show that a non-planar hole-injecting electrode combined with a semi-transparent electron-injecting electrode enables to achieve high EQE at high brightness and high ON/OFF ratio. Furthermore, we demonstrate that heterostructure LEFETs have a better frequency response (f cut-off = 2.6a €...kHz) compared to single layer LEFETs the results presented here therefore are a major step along the pathway towards the realization of LEFETs for display applications.

Prognostic value of biochemical liver parameters in neonatal sepsis-associated cholestasis

Aims The aim of the study was to evaluate the significance of total bilirubin, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) for predicting outcome in sepsis-associated cholestasis. Methods: A retrospective cohort review of the hospital records was performed in 181 neonates admitted to the Neonatal Care Unit. A comparison was performed between subjects with low and high liver values based on cut-off values from ROC analysis. We defined poor prognosis to be when a subject had prolonged cholestasis of more than 3.5 months, developed severe sepsis, septic shock or had a fatal outcome. Results: The majority of the subjects were male (56%), preterm (56%) and had early onset sepsis (73%). The poor prognosis group had lower initial values of GGT compared with the good prognosis group (P = 0.003). Serum GGT (cut-off value of 85.5 U/L) and AST (cut-off value of 51 U/L) showed significant correlation with the outcome following multivariate analysis. The odds ratio (OR) of low GGT and high AST were OR 4.3 (95% CI:1.6 to11.8) and OR 2.9 (95% CI:1.1 to 8), respectively, for poor prognosis. In subjects with normal AST values, those with low GGT value had relative risk of 2.52 (95% CI:1.4 to 3.5) for poorer prognosis compared with those with normal or high GGT. Conclusion: Serum GGT and AST values can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis

Validity of BMI as a measure of obesity in Australian white Caucasian and Australian Sri Lankan children

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is used to diagnose obesity. However, its ability to predict the percentage fat mass (%FM) reliably is doubtful. Therefore validity of BMI as a diagnostic tool of obesity is questioned. Aim: This study is focused on determining the ability of BMI-based cut-off values in diagnosing obesity among Australian children of white Caucasian and Sri Lankan origin. Subjects and methods: Height and weight was measured and BMI (W/H2) calculated. Total body water was determined by deuterium dilution technique and fat free mass and hence fat mass derived using age- and gender-specific constants. A %FM of 30% for girls and 20% for boys was considered as the criterion cut-off level for obesity. BMI-based obesity cut-offs described by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), CDC/NCHS centile charts and BMI-Z were validated against the criterion method. Results: There were 96 white Caucasian and 42 Sri Lankan children. Of the white Caucasians, 19 (36%) girls and 29 (66%) boys, and of the Sri Lankans 7 (46%) girls and 16 (63%) boys, were obese based on %FM. The FM and BMI were closely associated in both Caucasians (r = 0.81, P<0.001) and Sri Lankans (r = 0.92, P<0.001). Percentage FM and BMI also had a lower but significant association. Obesity cut-off values recommended by IOTF failed to detect a single case of obesity in either group. However, NCHS and BMI-Z cut-offs detected cases of obesity with low sensitivity. Conclusions: BMI is a poor indicator of percentage fat and the commonly used cut-off values were not sensitive enough to detect cases of childhood obesity in this study. In order to improve the diagnosis of obesity, either BMI cut-off values should be revised to increase the sensitivity or the possibility of using other indirect methods of estimating the %FM should be explored.

Patient reported adherence to hypertension treatment: A revalidation study

Background Adherence to hypertension management in patients with hypertension is known to influence their blood pressure control. It is important to measure patients’ adherence behaviours to assist with designing appropriate interventions to improve blood pressure control. Aims The purposes of this study were to use confirmatory factor analysis to revalidate the Therapeutic Adherence Scale for Hypertensive Patients (TASHP), and to calculate the cut-off score for classifying adherence behaviours into two groups: satisfactory and low adherence behaviours. Methods Systematic random sampling was used to recruit patients with hypertension in China. Demographic characteristics, the TASHP and blood pressure were collected. The psychometric tests of the TASHP included: construct validity, criteria-related validity, internal reliability, and split-half reliability. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and Youden index were used to identify the cut-off score of the TASHP for blood pressure control. Results This study involved 366 patients. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the four-component structure of the TASHP proposed in the original scale development study. The TASHP has a satisfactory internal reliability (Cronbach’s α > 0.7) and a satisfactory split-half reliability (Spearman–Brown coefficients > 0.7). The patients with overall scores of the TASHP ⩾ 109 points were considered to have satisfactory adherence behaviours. Conclusion The TASHP is a validated and reliable instrument to measure the adherence to hypertension management in Chinese patients with hypertension. The cut-off score of 109 points can be considered as an effective measure to classify the level of adherence into satisfactory and low adherence behaviours.

Postnatal depressive symptoms amongst women in Central Vietnam: A cross-sectional study investigating prevalence and associations with social, cultural and infant factors

Background This study investigated the prevalence and socio-cultural correlates of postnatal mood disturbance amongst women 18–45 years old in Central Vietnam. Son preference and traditional confinement practices were explored as well as factors such as poverty, parity, family and intimate partner relationships and infant health. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in twelve randomly selected Commune Health Centres from urban and rural districts of Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam. Mother-infant dyads one to six months postpartum were invited to participate. Questionnaires from 431 mothers (urban n = 216; rural n = 215) assessed demographic and family characteristics, traditional confinement practices, son preference, infant health and social capital. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and WHO5 Wellbeing Index indicated depressive symptoms and emotional wellbeing. Data were analysed using general linear models. Results Using an EPDS cut-off of 12/13, 18.1 % (n = 78, 95 % CI 14.6 - 22.1) of women had depressive symptoms (20.4 % urban; 15.8 % rural). Contrary to predictions, infant gender and traditional confinement were unrelated to depressive symptoms. Poverty, food insecurity, being frightened of family members, and intimate partner violence increased both depressive symptoms and lowered wellbeing. The first model accounted for 30.2 % of the variance in EPDS score and found being frightened of one’s husband, husband’s unemployment, breastfeeding difficulties, infant diarrhoea, and cognitive social capital were associated with higher EPDS scores. The second model had accounted for 22 % of the variance in WHO5 score. Living in Hue city, low education, poor maternal competence and a negative family response to the baby lowered maternal wellbeing. Conclusions Traditional confinement practices and son preference were not linked to depressive symptoms among mothers, but were correlates of family relationships and wellbeing. Poverty, food insecurity, violence, infant ill health, and discordant intimate and family relationships were linked with depressive symptoms in Central Vietnam.