High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year : important information for heat-warning systems

We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a “main effect” due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an “added effect” due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.

Heteroscedastic probabilistic linear discriminant analysis for manifold learning in video-based face recognition

To recognize faces in video, face appearances have been widely modeled as piece-wise local linear models which linearly approximate the smooth yet non-linear low dimensional face appearance manifolds. The choice of representations of the local models is crucial. Most of the existing methods learn each local model individually meaning that they only anticipate variations within each class. In this work, we propose to represent local models as Gaussian distributions which are learned simultaneously using the heteroscedastic probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA). Each gallery video is therefore represented as a collection of such distributions. With the PLDA, not only the within-class variations are estimated during the training, the separability between classes is also maximized leading to an improved discrimination. The heteroscedastic PLDA itself is adapted from the standard PLDA to approximate face appearance manifolds more accurately. Instead of assuming a single global within-class covariance, the heteroscedastic PLDA learns different within-class covariances specific to each local model. In the recognition phase, a probe video is matched against gallery samples through the fusion of point-to-model distances. Experiments on the Honda and MoBo datasets have shown the merit of the proposed method which achieves better performance than the state-of-the-art technique.

Refined plastic hinge analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections : II : verification

Application of "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A refined plastic hinge method suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections is presented in a companion paper. The method implicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. The accuracy and precision of the method for the analysis of steel frames comprising non-compact sections is established in this paper by comparison with a comprehensive range of analytical benchmark frame solutions. The refined plastic hinge method is shown to be more accurate and precise than the conventional individual member design methods based on elastic analysis and specification equations.

Analytical benchmark solutions for steel frame structures subject to local buckling effects

Application of "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A research project has been conducted with the aim of developing concentrated plasticity methods suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections. This paper contains a comprehensive set of analytical benchmark solutions for steel frames comprising non-compact sections, which can be used to verify the accuracy of simplified concentrated plasticity methods of advanced analysis. The analytical benchmark solutions were obtained using a distributed plasticity shell finite element model that explicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. A brief description and verification of the shell finite element model is provided in this paper.

Distributed plasticity analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

Application of 'advanced analysis' methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A research project has been conducted with the aim of developing concentrated plasticity methods suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections. A primary objective was to produce a comprehensive range of new distributed plasticity analytical benchmark solutions for verification of the concentrated plasticity methods. A distributed plasticity model was developed using shell finite elements to explicitly account for the effects of gradual yielding and spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses and local buckling deformations. The model was verified by comparison with large-scale steel frame test results and a variety of existing analytical benchmark solutions. This paper presents a description of the distributed plasticity model and details of the verification study.

Pseudo plastic zone analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

Application of `advanced analysis' methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A concentrated plasticity method suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections is presented in this paper. The pseudo plastic zone method implicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. The accuracy and precision of the method for the analysis of steel frames comprising non-compact sections is established by comparison with a comprehensive range of analytical benchmark frame solutions. The pseudo plastic zone method is shown to be more accurate and precise than the conventional individual member design methods based on elastic analysis and specification equations.

Large-scale testing of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

Application of 'advanced analysis' methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A research project has been conducted with the aim of developing concentrated plasticity methods suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections. A series of large-scale tests were performed in order to provide experimental results for verification of the new analytical models. Each of the test frames comprised non-compact sections, and exhibited significant local buckling behaviour prior to failure. This paper presents details of the test program including the test specimens, set-up and instrumentation, procedure, and results.

Learning processes in creative service teams : towards a dynamic systems theory

The fastest-growing segment of jobs in the creative sector are in those firms that provide creative services to other sectors (Hearn, Goldsmith, Bridgstock, Rodgers 2014, this volume; Cunningham 2014, this volume). There are also a large number of Creative Services (Architecture and Design, Advertising and Marketing, Software and Digital Content occupations) workers embedded in organizations in other industry sectors (Cunningham and Higgs 2009). Ben Goldsmith (2014, this volume) shows, for example, that the Financial Services sector is the largest employer of digital creative talent in Australia. But why should this be? We argue it is because ‘knowledge-based intangibles are increasingly the source of value creation and hence of sustainable competitive advantage (Mudambi 2008, 186). This value creation occurs primarily at the research and development (R and D) and the marketing ends of the supply chain. Both of these areas require strong creative capabilities in order to design for, and to persuade, consumers. It is no surprise that Jess Rodgers (2014, this volume), in a study of Australia’s Manufacturing sector, found designers and advertising and marketing occupations to be the most numerous creative occupations. Greg Hearn and Ruth Bridgstock (2013, forthcoming) suggest ‘the creative heart of the creative economy […] is the social and organisational routines that manage the generation of cultural novelty, both tacit and codified, internal and external, and [cultural novelty’s] combination with other knowledges […] produce and capture value’. 2 Moreover, the main “social and organisational routine” is usually a team (for example, Grabher 2002; 2004).

Discrete phase-locked loop systems and spreadsheets

This paper demonstrates the use of a spreadsheet in exploring non-linear difference equations that describe digital control systems used in radio engineering, communication and computer architecture. These systems, being the focus of intensive studies of mathematicians and engineers over the last 40 years, may exhibit extremely complicated behaviour interpreted in contemporary terms as transition from global asymptotic stability to chaos through period-doubling bifurcations. The authors argue that embedding advanced mathematical ideas in the technological tool enables one to introduce fundamentals of discrete control systems in tertiary curricula without learners having to deal with complex machinery that rigorous mathematical methods of investigation require. In particular, in the appropriately designed spreadsheet environment, one can effectively visualize a qualitative difference in the behviour of systems with different types of non-linear characteristic.

Wide area control of SVCs for first swing stabilisation and damping in longitudinal systems

A non-linear Kalman filter based control strategy for SVCs located in major load groups is presented. This focusses on the limitation and damping of inter-area modes. It does this through treating local modes as noise and uses a tunable nonlinear control algorithm to improve both first swing stability and system damping. Simulation on a four machine system shows that the Kalman filer can successfully lock on to a desired inter-area mode and obtain a 31% improvement in critical clearing time as well as improved damping.

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

The role of HPC facilies in development of a novel road safety barrier

Water-filled portable road safety barriers are a common fixture in road works, however their use of water can be problematic, both in terms of the quantity of water used and the transportation of the water to the installation site. This project aims to develop a new design of portable road safety barrier, which will make novel use of composite and foam materials in order to reduce the barrier’s reliance on water in order to control errant vehicles. The project makes use of finite element (FE) techniques in order to simulate and evaluate design concepts. FE methods and models that have previously been tested and validated will be used in combination in order to provide the most accurate numerical simulations available to drive the project forward. LS-DYNA code is as highly dynamic, non-linear numerical solver which is commonly used in the automotive and road safety industries. Several complex materials and physical interactions are to be simulated throughout the course of the project including aluminium foams, composite laminates and water within the barrier during standardised impact tests. Techniques to be used include FE, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and weighted multi-parameter optimisation techniques. A detailed optimisation of several design parameters with specific design goals will be performed with LS-DYNA and LS-OPT, which will require a large number of high accuracy simulations and advanced visualisation techniques. Supercomputing will play a central role in the project, enabling the numerous medium element count simulations necessary in order to determine the optimal design parameters of the barrier to be performed. Supercomputing will also allow the development of useful methods of visualisation results and the production of highly detailed simulations for end-product validation purposes. Efforts thus far have been towards integrating various numerical methods (including FEM, SPH and advanced materials models) together in an efficient and accurate manner. Various designs of joining mechanisms have been developed and are currently being developed into FE models and simulations.

Theoretical and numerical investigation of plasmon nanofocusing in metallic tapered rods and grooves

Effective focusing of electromagnetic (EM) energy to nanoscale regions is one of the major challenges in nano-photonics and plasmonics. The strong localization of the optical energy into regions much smaller than allowed by the diffraction limit, also called nanofocusing, offers promising applications in nano-sensor technology, nanofabrication, near-field optics or spectroscopy. One of the most promising solutions to the problem of efficient nanofocusing is related to surface plasmon propagation in metallic structures. Metallic tapered rods, commonly used as probes in near field microscopy and spectroscopy, are of a particular interest. They can provide very strong EM field enhancement at the tip due to surface plasmons (SP’s) propagating towards the tip of the tapered metal rod. A large number of studies have been devoted to the manufacturing process of tapered rods or tapered fibers coated by a metal film. On the other hand, structures such as metallic V-grooves or metal wedges can also provide strong electric field enhancements but manufacturing of these structures is still a challenge. It has been shown, however, that the attainable electric field enhancement at the apex in the V-groove is higher than at the tip of a metal tapered rod when the dissipation level in the metal is strong. Metallic V-grooves also have very promising characteristics as plasmonic waveguides. This thesis will present a thorough theoretical and numerical investigation of nanofocusing during plasmon propagation along a metal tapered rod and into a metallic V-groove. Optimal structural parameters including optimal taper angle, taper length and shape of the taper are determined in order to achieve maximum field enhancement factors at the tip of the nanofocusing structure. An analytical investigation of plasmon nanofocusing by metal tapered rods is carried out by means of the geometric optics approximation (GOA), which is also called adiabatic nanofocusing. However, GOA is applicable only for analysing tapered structures with small taper angles and without considering a terminating tip structure in order to neglect reflections. Rigorous numerical methods are employed for analysing non-adiabatic nanofocusing, by tapered rod and V-grooves with larger taper angles and with a rounded tip. These structures cannot be studied by analytical methods due to the presence of reflected waves from the taper section, the tip and also from (artificial) computational boundaries. A new method is introduced to combine the advantages of GOA and rigorous numerical methods in order to reduce significantly the use of computational resources and yet achieve accurate results for the analysis of large tapered structures, within reasonable calculation time. Detailed comparison between GOA and rigorous numerical methods will be carried out in order to find the critical taper angle of the tapered structures at which GOA is still applicable. It will be demonstrated that optimal taper angles, at which maximum field enhancements occur, coincide with the critical angles, at which GOA is still applicable. It will be shown that the applicability of GOA can be substantially expanded to include structures which could be analysed previously by numerical methods only. The influence of the rounded tip, the taper angle and the role of dissipation onto the plasmon field distribution along the tapered rod and near the tip will be analysed analytically and numerically in detail. It will be demonstrated that electric field enhancement factors of up to ~ 2500 within nanoscale regions are predicted. These are sufficient, for instance, to detect single molecules using surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) with the tip of a tapered rod, an approach also known as tip enhanced Raman spectroscopy or TERS. The results obtained in this project will be important for applications for which strong local field enhancement factors are crucial for the performance of devices such as near field microscopes or spectroscopy. The optimal design of nanofocusing structures, at which the delivery of electromagnetic energy to the nanometer region is most efficient, will lead to new applications in near field sensors, near field measuring technology, or generation of nanometer sized energy sources. This includes: applications in tip enhanced Raman spectroscopy (TERS); manipulation of nanoparticles and molecules; efficient coupling of optical energy into and out of plasmonic circuits; second harmonic generation in non-linear optics; or delivery of energy to quantum dots, for instance, for quantum computations.

Intelligent prognostics of machinery health utilising suspended condition monitoring data

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models for forecasting machinery health based on condition data. Although these models have aided the advancement of the discipline, they have made only a limited contribution to developing an effective machinery health prognostic system. The literature review indicates that there is not yet a prognostic model that directly models and fully utilises suspended condition histories (which are very common in practice since organisations rarely allow their assets to run to failure); that effectively integrates population characteristics into prognostics for longer-range prediction in a probabilistic sense; which deduces the non-linear relationship between measured condition data and actual asset health; and which involves minimal assumptions and requirements. This work presents a novel approach to addressing the above-mentioned challenges. The proposed model consists of a feed-forward neural network, the training targets of which are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density estimator. The adapted Kaplan-Meier estimator is able to model the actual survival status of individual failed units and estimate the survival probability of individual suspended units. The degradation-based failure probability density estimator, on the other hand, extracts population characteristics and computes conditional reliability from available condition histories instead of from reliability data. The estimated survival probability and the relevant condition histories are respectively presented as “training target” and “training input” to the neural network. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival curve of a unit when a series of condition indices are inputted. Although the concept proposed may be applied to the prognosis of various machine components, rolling element bearings were chosen as the research object because rolling element bearing failure is one of the foremost causes of machinery breakdowns. Computer simulated and industry case study data were used to compare the prognostic performance of the proposed model and four control models, namely: two feed-forward neural networks with the same training function and structure as the proposed model, but neglected suspended histories; a time series prediction recurrent neural network; and a traditional Weibull distribution model. The results support the assertion that the proposed model performs better than the other four models and that it produces adaptive prediction outputs with useful representation of survival probabilities. This work presents a compelling concept for non-parametric data-driven prognosis, and for utilising available asset condition information more fully and accurately. It demonstrates that machinery health can indeed be forecasted. The proposed prognostic technique, together with ongoing advances in sensors and data-fusion techniques, and increasingly comprehensive databases of asset condition data, holds the promise for increased asset availability, maintenance cost effectiveness, operational safety and – ultimately – organisation competitiveness.

Online estimation of distorted power system signal parameters

An algorithm based on the concept of Kalman filtering is proposed in this paper for the estimation of power system signal attributes, like amplitude, frequency and phase angle. This technique can be used in protection relays, digital AVRs, DSTATCOMs, FACTS and other power electronics applications. Furthermore this algorithm is particularly suitable for the integration of distributed generation sources to power grids when fast and accurate detection of small variations of signal attributes are needed. Practical considerations such as the effect of noise, higher order harmonics, and computational issues of the algorithm are considered and tested in the paper. Several computer simulations are presented to highlight the usefulness of the proposed approach. Simulation results show that the proposed technique can simultaneously estimate the signal attributes, even if it is highly distorted due to the presence of non-linear loads and noise.