Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Flammability and thermal properties of novel semi aromatic polyamide/organoclay nanocomposite

The development of semi aromatic polyamide/organoclays nanocomposites (PANC) is reported in this communication. New polyamide (PA) was successfully synthesized through direct polycondensation reaction between bio-based diacid and aromatic diamine. PA exhibited strong UV vis absorption band at 412 nm. Its photoluminescence spectrum showed maximum band at 511 nm in the green region. The surface modification of montmorillonite was carried out through ion-exchange reaction using 1,4-bis[4-aminophenoxy]butane (APB) as a modifier. Then PANCs containing 3 and 6 wt.% of the modified montmorillonite (MMT-APB) were prepared. Flammability and thermal properties of PA and the nanocomposites were studied by microscale combustion calorimeter (MCC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). TGA results in both air and nitrogen atmospheres indicated improving in thermal properties of PANCs compared to the neat PA. According to MCC analysis, a 31.6% reduction in pHRR value has been achieved by introducing 6 wt.% of the organoclay in PA matrix.

A semi-alternating direction method for a 2-D fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model on an approximate irregular domain

A FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model has been used to describe the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model on an irregular domain. The model consists of a coupled Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and an ordinary differential equation, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. Secondly, we use a decoupling technique and focus on solving the Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. A novel spatially second-order accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method (SIADM) for this model on an approximate irregular domain is proposed. Thirdly, stability and convergence of the SIADM are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis and these numerical techniques are employed to simulate a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo model on both an approximate circular and an approximate irregular domain.

A fast semi-implicit difference method for a nonlinear two-sided space-fractional diffusion equation with variable diffusivity coefficients

In this paper, we derive a new nonlinear two-sided space-fractional diffusion equation with variable coefficients from the fractional Fick’s law. A semi-implicit difference method (SIDM) for this equation is proposed. The stability and convergence of the SIDM are discussed. For the implementation, we develop a fast accurate iterative method for the SIDM by decomposing the dense coefficient matrix into a combination of Toeplitz-like matrices. This fast iterative method significantly reduces the storage requirement of O(n2)O(n2) and computational cost of O(n3)O(n3) down to n and O(nlogn)O(nlogn), where n is the number of grid points. The method retains the same accuracy as the underlying SIDM solved with Gaussian elimination. Finally, some numerical results are shown to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the new method.

The synthesis, characterization, X-ray structure and magnetism of dinuclear-based bis[μ-(1,1,3,3-tetracyano-2-ethoxypropenido-κ2N,N′) (1,1,3,3-tetracyano-2-ethoxypropenido-κN)(2,2′-bipyridine)copper(II)] organized in alternating chains via semi-coordinating Cu–N distances

The monoanionic ligand 1,1,3,3 tetracyano-2 ethoxypropenide (tcnoet) is reported with its Cu(II)–bpy complex of formula [Cu2(µ-tcnoet)2(tcnoet)2(bpy)2]. The structure has been determined using X-ray diffraction and features an alternating chain with bridging tcnoet ligands. One ligand acts as a bidentate, dinucleating ligand with one short Cu–N and one medium Cu–N bond, whereas the other tcnoet is largely monodentate, albeit with a very weak interdimer Cu–N bond. Despite the arrangement in dinuclear units, further arranged into linear chains through the non-bridging tcnoet ligand, the compound shows no significant magnetic exchange, as deduced from magnetic susceptibility down to 4 K. Ligand-field, IR and EPR spectra in the solid state and in frozen solution are reported and are consistent with the overall structure.

Transparent, balanced and vigorous: The exercise of the Australian Privacy Commissioner's powers in relation to National Privacy Principle 4

This thesis considers whether the Australian Privacy Commissioner's use of its powers supports compliance with the requirement to 'take reasonable steps' to protect personal information in National Privacy Principle 4 of the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth). Two unique lenses were used. First, the Commissioner's use of powers was assessed against the principles of transparency, balance and vigorousness and secondly against alignment with an industry practice approach to securing information. Following a comprehensive review of publicly available materials, interviews and investigation file records, this thesis found that the Commissioner's use of his powers has not been transparent, balanced or vigorous, nor has it been supportive of an industry practice approach to securing data. Accordingly, it concludes that the Privacy Commissioner's use of its regulatory powers is unlikely to result in any significant improvement to the security of personal information held by organisations in Australia.

Semi-automated annotation of environmental acoustic recordings

Environmental sensors collect massive amounts of audio data. This thesis investigates computational methods to support human analysts in identifying faunal vocalisations from that audio. A series of experiments was conducted to trial the effectiveness of novel user interfaces. This research examines the rapid scanning of spectrograms, decision support tools for users, and cleaning methods for folksonomies. Together, these investigations demonstrate that providing computational support to human analysts increases their efficiency and accuracy; this allows bioacoustics projects to efficiently utilise their valuable human analysts.

Planar silver nanowire, carbon nanotube and PEDOT:PSS nanocomposite transparent electrodes

Highly conductive, transparent and flexible planar electrodes were fabricated using interwoven silver nanowires and single-walled carbon nanotubes (AgNW:SWCNT) in a PEDOT:PSS matrix via an epoxy transfer method from a silicon template. The planar electrodes achieved a sheet resistance of 6.6 ± 0.0 Ω/squ and an average transmission of 86% between 400 and 800 nm. A high figure of merit of 367 Ω−1 is reported for the electrodes, which is much higher than that measured for indium tin oxide and reported for other AgNW composites. The AgNW:SWCNT:PEDOT:PSS electrode was used to fabricate low temperature (annealing free) devices demonstrating their potential to function with a range of organic semiconducting polymer:fullerene bulk heterojunction blend systems.

Room-temperature tilted-target sputtering deposition of highly transparent and low sheet resistance Al doped ZnO electrodes

Target-tilted room temperature sputtering of aluminium doped zinc oxide (AZO) provides transparent conducting electrodes with sheet resistances of <10 Ω □-1 and average transmittance in the visible region of up to 84%. The properties of the AZO electrode are found to be strongly dependent on the target-tilting angle and film thickness. The AZO electrodes showed comparable performance to commercial indium tin oxide (ITO) electrodes in organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices. OPV devices containing a bulk heterojunction active layer comprised of poly(3-n-hexylthiophene) (P3HT):phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) and an AZO transparent conducting electrode had a power conversion efficiency (PCE) of up to 2.5% with those containing ITO giving a PCE of 2.6%. These results demonstrate that AZO films are a good alternative to ITO for transparent conducting electrodes.

A decision support framework for prioritization of engineering asset management activities under uncertainty

Engineers and asset managers must often make decisions on how to best allocate limited resources amongst different interrelated activities, including repair, renewal, inspection, and procurement of new assets. The presence of project interdependencies and the lack of sufficient information on the true value of an activity often produce complex problems and leave the decision maker guessing about the quality and robustness of their decision. In this paper, a decision support framework for uncertain interrelated activities is presented. The framework employs a methodology for multi-criteria ranking in the presence of uncertainty, detailing the effect that uncertain valuations may have on the priority of a particular activity. The framework employs employing semi-quantitative risk measures that can be tailored to an organisation and enable a transparent and simple-to-use uncertainty specification by the decision maker. The framework is then demonstrated on a real world project set from a major Australian utility provider.

Pathway to high throughput, low cost indium-free transparent electrodes

A roll-to-roll compatible, high throughput process is reported for the production of highly conductive, transparent planar electrode comprising an interwoven network of silver nanowires and single walled carbon nanotubes imbedded into poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):polystyrene sulfonate (PEDOT:PSS). The planar electrode has a sheet resistance of between 4 and 7 Ω □−1 and a transmission of >86% between 800 and 400 nm with a figure of merit of between 344 and 400 Ω−1. The nanocomposite electrode is highly flexible and retains a low sheet resistance after bending at a radius of 5 mm for up to 500 times without loss. Organic photovoltaic devices containing the planar nanocomposite electrodes had efficiencies of ∼90% of control devices that used indium tin oxide as the transparent conducting electrode.

Identifying vertebral end plate lesions (schmorl's nodes) using a semi-automatic method

INTRODUCTION There is a large range in the reported prevalence of end plate lesions (EPLs), sometimes referred to as Schmorl's nodes in the general population (3.8-76%). One possible reason for this large range is the differences in definitions used by authors. Previous research has suggested that EPLs may potentially be a primary disturbance of growth plates that leads to the onset of scoliosis. The aim of this study was to develop a technique to measure the size, prevalence and location of EPLs on Computed Tomography (CT) images of scoliosis patients in a consistent manner. METHODS A detection algorithm was developed and applied to measure EPLs for five adolescent females with idiopathic scoliosis (average age 15.1 years, average major Cobb 60°). In this algorithm, the EPL definition was based on the lesion depth, the distance from the edge of the vertebral body and the gradient of the lesion edge. Existing low-dose, CT scans of the patients' spines were segmented semi-automatically to extract 3D vertebral endplate morphology. Manual sectioning of any attachments between posterior elements of adjacent vertebrae and, if necessary, endplates was carried out before the automatic algorithm was used to determine the presence and position of EPLs. RESULTS EPLs were identified in 15 of the 170 (8.8%) endplates analysed with an average depth of 3.1mm. 73% of the EPLs were seen in the lumbar spines (11/15). A sensitivity study demonstrated that the algorithm was most sensitive to changes in the minimum gradient required at the lesion edge. CONCLUSION An imaging analysis technique for consistent measurement of the prevalence, location and size of EPLs on CT images has been developed. Although the technique was tested on scoliosis patients, it can be used to analyse other populations without observer errors in EPL definitions.

Profiles of illicit drug use during annual key holiday and control periods in Australia: Wastewater analysis in an urban, a semi-rural and a vacation area

AIMS: To examine changes in illicit drug consumption between peak holiday season (23 December-3 January) in Australia and a control period two months later in a coastal urban area, an inland semi-rural area and an island populated predominantly by vacationers during holidays. DESIGN: Analysis of representative daily composite wastewater samples collected from the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area. SETTING: Three wastewater treatment plants. PARTICIPANTS: Wastewater treatment plants serviced approximately 350, 000 persons in the urban area, 120,000 in the semi-rural area and 1100-2400 on the island. MEASUREMENTS: Drug residues were analysed using liquid chromatography coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer. Per capita drug consumption was estimated. Changes in drug use were quantified using Hedges' g. FINDINGS: During the holidays, cannabis consumption in the semi-rural area declined (g = -2.8) as did methamphetamine (-0.8), whereas cocaine (+1.5) and ecstasy (+1.6) use increased. In the urban area, consumption of all drugs increased during holidays (cannabis +1.6, cocaine +1.2, ecstasy +0.8 and methamphetamine +0.3). In the vacation area, methamphetamine (+0.7), ecstasy (+0.7) and cocaine (+1.1) use increased, but cannabis (-0.5) use decreased during holiday periods. CONCLUSIONS: While the peak holiday season in Australia is perceived as a period of increased drug use, this is not uniform across all drugs and areas. Substantial declines in drug use in the semi-rural area contrasted with substantial increases in urban and vacation areas. Per capita drug consumption in the vacation area was equivalent to that in the urban area, implying that these locations merit particular attention for drug use monitoring and harm minimisation measures.

Illicit drug use between an annual key holiday and a control period: Wastewater analysis in a semi-rural, an urban and a vacation area

Introduction and Aims: Holiday periods are potentially a time for increased substance use as social events and private parties are more common. Data on community illicit drug consumption during holiday periods are limited. Besides existing methods for determining drug use, such as population surveys, one emerging method is to measure illicit drugs and/or their metabolites in wastewater samples. This study examined the change in consumption of cannabis, methamphetamine, cocaine and 3,4- methylenedioxymethamphetamine in three different types of areas (an inland semi-rural area, a coastal urban area and a vacation island) with respect to holiday times. Design and Methods: Samples were collected at the inlet of the major wastewater treatment plant in each area during a key annual holiday (i.e. the summer holiday including Christmas and New Year) and control period. Illicit drug residues in the daily composited samples were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Results: Drug use varied substantially among the three areas within each monitoring period as well as between the holiday and control period within each area. Use consistently increased and peaked over New Year particularly for cocaine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine whereas cannabis and methamphetamine were relatively less subjected to holiday times in all the areas. Discussion and Conclusions: Wastewater sampling and analysis provides higher spatio-temporal resolution than national surveys and supplements drug epidemiology studies originating primary in metropolitan locations. Such data is essential for policy makers to plan potential intervention strategies associated with these illicit substances in regional areas and other settings besides urban areas in the future.

Semi-supervised document clustering via loci

Document clustering is one of the prominent methods for mining important information from the vast amount of data available on the web. However, document clustering generally suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Providentially in high dimensional space, data points tend to be more concentrated in some areas of clusters. We take advantage of this phenomenon by introducing a novel concept of dynamic cluster representation named as loci. Clusters’ loci are efficiently calculated using documents’ ranking scores generated from a search engine. We propose a fast loci-based semi-supervised document clustering algorithm that uses clusters’ loci instead of conventional centroids for assigning documents to clusters. Empirical analysis on real-world datasets shows that the proposed method produces cluster solutions with promising quality and is substantially faster than several benchmarked centroid-based semi-supervised document clustering methods.