Price linkages in the copper futures, primary, and scrap markets

This study investigates how markets for different levels of copper purity are interrelated by testing the long-run price linkage and causalities among the copper futures, primary, copper scrap, and brass scrap markets. It is expected that copper markets that deal with high purity levels, such as the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets, have a long-run relationship. However, brass scrap markets where copper with a lower purity is traded may not have a price linkage with other copper markets. The results reveal that a long-run relationship holds between the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets but the brass scrap market does not have a long-run relationship with the other markets. From the short-run and long-run causality tests, we determine that the futures market plays an important role in transmitting price information to other copper markets while such information flow is not found for the brass scrap market.

Impacts of introduced aquaculture species on markets for native marine aquaculture products : the case of edible oysters in Australia

Economic competition between introduced and native aquaculture species is of interest for industry stakeholders since increased production can affect price formation if both aquaculture species are part of the same market or even substitutes. In this study, we focus on the Australian edible oyster industry, which is dominated by two major species—the native Sydney rock oyster (grown mainly in Queensland and New South Wales) and the non-native Pacific oyster (grown mainly in South Australia and Tasmania). We examine the integration of the Australian oyster market to determine if there exists a single or several markets. Short- and long-run own, cross-price and income flexibilities of demand are estimated for both species using an inverse demand system of equations. The results suggest that the markets for the two species are integrated. We found evidence that the development of the Pacific oyster industry has had an adverse impact on Sydney rock oyster prices. However, our results show that both species are not perfect substitutes. Demand for Sydney rock oysters is relatively inelastic in the long run, yet no long-run relationships can be identified for Pacific oysters, reflecting the developing nature of this sector.

Regional aviation and economic growth : cointegration and causality analysis in Australia

Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.

The inner quality of an article: Will time tell?

In this paper, we assess whether quality survives the test of time in academia by comparing up to 80 years of academic journal article citations from two top journals, Econometrica and the American Economic Review. The research setting under analysis is analogous to a controlled real world experiment in that it involves a homogeneous task (trying to publish in top journals) by individuals with a homogenous job profile (academics) in a specific research environment (economics and econometrics). Comparing articles published concurrently in the same outlet at the same time (same issue) indicates that symbolic capital or power due to institutional affiliation or connection does seem to boost citation success at the beginning, giving those educated at or affiliated with leading universities an initial comparative advantage. Such advantage, however, does not hold in the long run: at a later stage,the publications of other researchers become as or even more successful.

Research outcomes for improved management of insulated rail joints

Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) are safety critical component of the automatic block signalling and broken rail detection systems. IRJs exhibit several failure modes due to complex interaction between the railhead ends and the wheel tread near the gap. These localised zones could not be monitored using automatic sensing devices and hence are resorted to visual inspection only, which is error prone and expensive. In Australia alone currently there are 50,000 IRJs across 80,000 km of rail track. The significance of the problem around the world could thus be realised as there exists one IRJ for each 1.6 km track length. IRJs exhibit extremely low and variable service life; further the track substructure underneath IRJs degrade faster. Thus presence of the IRJs incur significant costs to track maintenance. IRJ failures have also contributed to some train derailments and various traffic disruptions in rail lines. This paper reports a systematic research carried out over seven years on the mechanical behaviour of IRJs for practically relevant outcomes. The research has scientifically established that stiffening the track bed for reduction in impact force is an ill-conceived concept and the most effective method is to reduce the gap size. Further it is established that hardening the railhead ends through laser coating (or other) cannot adequately address the metal flow problem in the long run; modification of the railhead profile is the only appropriate technique to completely eliminate the problem. Part of these outcomes has been adopted by the rail infrastructure owners in Australia.

Exploring the nexus between tourism and output in Cook Islands: An ARDL bounds approach

Tourism plays an important role in the development of Cook Islands. In this paper we examine the nexus between tourism and growth using quarterly data over the period 2009Q1–2014Q2 using the recently upgraded ARDL bounds test to cointegration tool, Microfit 5.01, which provides sample adjusted bounds and hence is more reliable for small sample size studies. We perform the cointegration using the ARDL bounds test and examine the direction of causality. Using visitor arrival and output in per capita terms as respective proxy for tourism development and growth, we examine the long-run association and report the elasticity coefficient of tourism and causality nexus, accordingly. Using unit root break tests, we note that 2011Q1 and 2011Q2 are two structural break periods in the output series. However, we note that this period is not statistically significant in the ARDL model and hence excluded from the estimation. Subsequently, the regression results show the two series are cointegrated. The long-run elasticity coefficient of tourism is estimated to be 0.83 and the short-run is 0.73. A bidirectional causality between tourism and income is noted for Cook Islands which indicates that tourism development and income mutually reinforce each other. In light of this, socio-economic policies need to focus on broad-based, inclusive and income-generating tourism development projects which are expected to have feedback effect.

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

The dilemma of international capital tax competition in the presence of public capital and endogenous growth

Using an OLG-model with endogenous growth and public capital we show, that an international capital tax competition leads to inefficiently low tax rates, and as a consequence to lower welfare levels and growth rates. Each national government has an incentive to reduce the capital income tax rates in its effort to ensure that this policy measure increases the domestic private capital stock, domestic income and domestic economic growth. This effort is justified as long as only one country applies this policy. However, if all countries follow this path then all of them will be made worse off in the long run.

Modelling growth rate of Penaeus monodon Fabricius in intensively managed ponds: effects of temperature, pond age and stocking density

Records of shrimp growth and water quality made during 12 crops from each of 48 ponds, over a period of 6.5 years, were provided by a Queensland, Australia, commercial shrimp farm, These data were analysed with a new growth model derived from the Gompertz model. The results indicate that water temperature, mortality and pond age significantly affect growth rates. After 180 days, shrimp reach 34 g at constant 30 degrees C, but only 15 g after the same amount of time at 20 degrees C. Mortality, through thinning the density of shrimp in the ponds, increased the growth rate, but the effect is small. With continual production, growth rates at first remained steady, then appeared to decrease for the sixth and seventh crop, after which they have increased steadily with each crop. It appears that conservative pond management, together with a gradual improvement in husbandry techniques, particularly feed management, brought about this change. This has encouraging implications for the long-term sustainability of the farming methods used. The growth model can be used to predict productivity, and hence, profitability, of new aquaculture locations or new production strategies.

Clinical tips: Actively supporting customers to make a significant lifestyle change for New Year

We have all made these New Year’s resolutions before ... to be healthier, to eat better, to look after ourselves more, to go to the gym more. Each year, we are adamant we will stick with these resolutions, but deep down, we all know most of us will have given up before February even arrives. So we have put together a few tips to help you actively support your customers to make a significant lifestyle change for the New Year. Healthy eating – it is important for your customers to have realistic expectations. It is all too easy to say they will stop eating junk food, and start ‘eating healthy’. Advising them that it is important to be realistic and starting with a few small measurable goals, such as aiming to eat two servings of fruits or five servings of vegetables each day, will work better in the long run. Small tweaks and modifications can add up to a major change quite quickly...

On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia

This paper revisits the so-called ‘ICT-productivity paradox’ from a long-run perspective by using annual Australian data for 1965–2013. It provides estimates of long-run and short-run elasticities of labour productivity with respect to ICT capital deepening, and explores the nature of long-run causality among productivity growth and ICT and non-ICT capital deepening. The estimates of long-run elasticities are derived by employing both time-series and panel data econometric techniques. The empirical results provide strong confirmatory evidence of the long-run impact of ICT capital deepening on labour productivity in Australia.

Co2 emissions and income trajectory in Australia: The role of technological change

This study investigates the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and per capita GDP in Australia, while controlling for technological state as measured by multifactor productivity and export of black coal. Although technological progress seems to play a critical role in achieving long term goals of CO2 reduction and economic growth, empirical studies have often considered time trend to proxy technological change. However, as discoveries and diffusion of new technologies may not progress smoothly with time, the assumption of a deterministic technological progress may be incorrect in the long run. The use of multifactor productivity as a measure of technological state, therefore, overcomes the limitations and provides practical policy directions. This study uses recently developed bound-testing approach, which is complemented by Johansen- Juselius maximum likelihood approach and a reasonably large sample size to investigate the cointegration relationship. Both of the techniques suggest that cointegration relationship exists among the variables. The long-run and short-run coefficients of CO2 emissions function is estimated using ARDL approach. The empirical findings in the study show evidence of the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve type relationship for per capita CO2 emissions in the Australian context. The technology as measured by the multifactor productivity, however, is not found as an influencing variable in emissionsincome trajectory.

Energy-output linkages in Australia: Implications for emissions reduction policies

The study investigates the long-run and dynamic relationships between energy consumption and output in Australia using a multivariate cointegration and causality framework. Using both Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration approaches, the study finds that energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests suggest bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and real GDP, and Granger endogeineity in the system. Since the energy sector largely contributes to carbon emissions in Australia, we suggest that direct measures to reduce carbon by putting constraints on the energy consumption would pose significant economic costs for the Australian economy.

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country’s Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.