Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.

Thermal performance optimization of building aspect ratio and south window size in five cities having different climatic characteristics of Turkey

The aim of the study is to establish optimum building aspect ratios and south window sizes of residential buildings from thermal performance point of view. The effects of 6 different building aspect ratios and eight different south window sizes for each building aspect ratio are analyzed for apartments located at intermediate floors of buildings, by the aid of the computer based thermal analysis program SUNCODE-PC in five cities of Turkey: Erzurum, Ankara, Diyarbakir, Izmir, and Antalya. The results are evaluated in terms of annual energy consumption and the optimum values are driven. Comparison of optimum values and the total energy consumption rates is made among the analyzed cities.

Beam steering with high front-to-back ratio and high directivity on small platforms using decoupled antenna pairs

Beam steering with high front-to-back ratio and high directivity on a small platform is proposed. Two closely spaced antenna pairs with eigenmode port decoupling are used as the basic radiating elements. Two orthogonal radiation patterns are obtained for each antenna pair. High front-to-back ratio and high directivity are achieved by combining the two orthogonal radiation patterns. With an infinite groundplane, a front-to-back ratio of 21 dB with a directivity of 9.8 dB can be achieved. Beam steering, at the expense of a slight decrease in directivity, is achieved by placing the two antenna pairs 0.5λ apart. The simulated half power beamwidth is 58°. A prototype was designed and the 2-D radiation patterns were measured. The prototype supports three directions of beam steering. The half power beamwidth was measured as 46°, 48°, and 50° for the three respective beam directions. The measured front-to-back ratio in azimuth plane is 8.5 dB, 8.0 dB and 7.6 dB, respectively.

Letter to the editor : likelihood of tetraplegia after CT clearance of the cervical spine in obtunded blunt trauma patients

...the probabilistic computer simulation study by Dunham and colleagues evaluating the impact of different cervical spine management (CSM) strategies on tetraplegia and brain injury outcomes.1 Based on literature findings, expert opinion and with use of advances programming techniques the authors conclude that early collar removal without cervical spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a preferable CSM strategy for comatose, blunt trauma patients with extremity movement and a negative cervical spine computed tomography(CT) scan. Although we do not have the required expertise to comment on the applied statistical approach, we would like to comment on one of the medical assumptions raised by the authors, namely the likelihood of tetraplegia in this specific population....

Effects of corrugation frequency and aspect ratio on natural convection within an enclosure having sinusoidal corrugation over a heated top surface

Natural convection of a two-dimensional laminar steady-state incompressible fluid flow in a modified rectangular enclosure with sinusoidal corrugated top surface has been investigated numerically. The present study has been carried out for different corrugation frequencies on the top surface as well as aspect ratios of the enclosure in order to observe the change in hydrodynamic and thermal behavior with constant corrugation amplitude. A constant flux heat source is flush mounted on the top sinusoidal wall, modeling a wavy sheet shaded room exposed to sunlight. The flat bottom surface is considered as adiabatic, while the both vertical side walls are maintained at the constant ambient temperature. The fluid considered inside the enclosure is air having Prandtl number of 0.71. The numerical scheme is based on the finite element method adapted to triangular non-uniform mesh element by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm. The results in terms of isotherms, streamlines and average Nusselt numbers are obtained for the Rayleigh number ranging from 10^3 to 10^6 with constant physical properties for the fluid medium considered. It is found that the convective phenomena are greatly influenced by the presence of the corrugation and variation of aspect ratios.

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

The perceived importance of mall retail categories and its effect on likelihood of purchase during a recession

Recessions impact the retail sector and as such research into consumer decision making during such times is imperative. In response to this, our study takes an innovative approach to examining how the perceived importance of retail store categories in a shopping mall influences the relationship between consumers' shopping attitudes and likelihood of purchasing in those categories during a recession. The overall findings show the importance of a product category to a consumer, which is often overlooked, has a strong explanatory influence on consumer purchase intentions for that specific retail store categories in a shopping mall under recession conditions. Findings also show that for consumers’ who have altered their shopping behaviour the perceived importance of a retail store category fully mediates the relationship for: Majors, Leisure, Food Catered and Mini Majors categories, and partial mediation for Apparel. Importance has no mediating effect for: Food Retail, General Retail, Mobile Phone Services, Home wares, and Retail Services. Our study makes a key contribution to the retail management literature with the findings suggesting that redefining and articulating the importance of the value offering for specific retail store categories can help reduce the impact of changes in consumers' recessionary shopping intentions across the mall tenant mix. Such actions can then help preserve the image of the shopping mall in the minds of the consumers when the economic recovery begins.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

Analysis of the damping properties of high-transmission-ratio Cycloidal drives

Cycloidal drives are widely used in today’s industries for drives where large reduction ratios are required. Drive-train dynamics plays an important role in their design. This paper presents a new methodology for assessing damping characteristics of Cycloidal drives and compares the natural frequencies obtained from experiments and theoretical/numerical calculations using Fast-Fourier-Transforms.

Performance evaluation of onsite sewage treatment : results of soil investigations

Background The onsite treatment of sewage and effluent disposal is widely prevalent in rural and urban fringe areas due to the general unavailability of reticulated wastewater collection systems. Despite the low technology of the systems, failure is common and in many cases leading to adverse public health and environmental consequences. It is important therefore that careful consideration is given to the design and location of onsite sewage treatment systems. This requires an understanding of the factors that influence treatment performance. The use of subsurface absorption systems is the most common form of effluent disposal for onsite sewage treatment, particularly for septic tanks. Also, in the case of septic tanks, a subsurface disposal system is generally an integral component of the sewage treatment process. Site specific factors play a key role in the onsite treatment of sewage. The project The primary aims of the research project were: • to relate treatment performance of onsite sewage treatment systems to soil conditions at site; • to evaluate current research relating to onsite sewage treatment; and, • to identify key issues where currently there is a lack of relevant research. These tasks were undertaken with the objective of facilitating the development of performance based planning and management strategies for onsite sewage treatment. The primary focus of this research project has been on septic tanks. By implication, the investigation has been confined to subsurface soil absorption systems. The design and treatment processes taking place within the septic tank chamber itself did not form a part of the investigation. Five broad categories of soil types prevalent in the Brisbane region have been considered in this project. The number of systems investigated was based on the proportionate area of urban development within the Brisbane region located on each of the different soil types. In the initial phase of the investigation, the majority of the systems evaluated were septic tanks. However, a small number of aerobic wastewater treatment systems (AWTS) were also included. The primary aim was to compare the effluent quality of systems employing different generic treatment processes. It is important to note that the number of each different type of system investigated was relatively small. Consequently, this does not permit a statistical analysis to be undertaken of the results obtained for comparing different systems. This is an important issue considering the large number of soil physico-chemical parameters and landscape factors that can influence treatment performance and their wide variability. The report This report is the last in a series of three reports focussing on the performance evaluation of onsite treatment of sewage. The research project was initiated at the request of the Brisbane City Council. The project component discussed in the current report outlines the detailed soil investigations undertaken at a selected number of sites. In the initial field sampling, a number of soil chemical properties were assessed as indicators to investigate the extent of effluent flow and to help understand what soil factors renovate the applied effluent. The soil profile attributes, especially texture, structure and moisture regime were examined more in an engineering sense to determine the effect of movement of water into and through the soil. It is important to note that it is not only the physical characteristics, but also the chemical characteristics of the soil as well as landscape factors play a key role in the effluent renovation process. In order to understand the complex processes taking place in a subsurface effluent disposal area, influential parameters were identified using soil chemical concepts. Accordingly, the primary focus of this final phase of the research project was to identify linkages between various soil chemical parameters and landscape patterns and their contribution to the effluent renovation process. The research outcomes will contribute to the development of robust criteria for evaluating the performance of subsurface effluent disposal systems. The outcomes The key findings from the soil investigations undertaken are: • Effluent renovation is primarily undertaken by a combination of various soil physico-chemical parameters and landscape factors, thereby making the effluent renovation processes strongly site dependent. • Decisions regarding site suitability for effluent disposal should not be based purely in terms of the soil type. A number of other factors such as the site location in the catena, the drainage characteristics and other physical and chemical characteristics, also exert a strong influence on site suitability. • Sites, which are difficult to characterise in terms of suitability for effluent disposal, will require a detailed soil physical and chemical analysis to be undertaken to a minimum depth of at least 1.2 m. • The Ca:Mg ratio and Exchangeable Sodium Percentage are important parameters in soil suitability assessment. A Ca:Mg ratio of less than 0.5 would generally indicate a high ESP. This in turn would mean that Na and possibly Mg are the dominant exchangeable cations, leading to probable clay dispersion. • A Ca:Mg ratio greater than 0.5 would generally indicate a low ESP in the profile, which in turn indicates increased soil stability. • In higher clay percentage soils, low ESP can have a significant effect. • The presence of high exchangeable Na can be counteracted by the presence of swelling clays, and an exchange complex co-dominated by exchangeable Ca and exchangeable Mg. This aids absorption of cations at depth, thereby reducing the likelihood of dispersion. • Salt is continually added to the soil by the effluent and problems may arise if the added salts accumulate to a concentration that is harmful to the soil structure. Under such conditions, good drainage is essential in order to allow continuous movement of water and salt through the profile. Therefore, for a site to be sustainable, it would have a maximum application rate of effluent. This would be dependent on subsurface characteristics and the surface area available for effluent disposal. • The dosing regime for effluent disposal can play a significant role in the prevention of salt accumulation in the case of poorly draining sites. Though intermittent dosing was not considered satisfactory for the removal of the clogging mat layer, it has positive attributes in the context of removal of accumulated salts in the soil.