Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

Sequential fusion of decisions from adaptive and random samples for controlled verification of errors

Fusion techniques have received considerable attention for achieving performance improvement with biometrics. While a multi-sample fusion architecture reduces false rejects, it also increases false accepts. This impact on performance also depends on the nature of subsequent attempts, i.e., random or adaptive. Expressions for error rates are presented and experimentally evaluated in this work by considering the multi-sample fusion architecture for text-dependent speaker verification using HMM based digit dependent speaker models. Analysis incorporating correlation modeling demonstrates that the use of adaptive samples improves overall fusion performance compared to randomly repeated samples. For a text dependent speaker verification system using digit strings, sequential decision fusion of seven instances with three random samples is shown to reduce the overall error of the verification system by 26% which can be further reduced by 6% for adaptive samples. This analysis novel in its treatment of random and adaptive multiple presentations within a sequential fused decision architecture, is also applicable to other biometric modalities such as finger prints and handwriting samples.

Sequential fusion of decisions with favorable dependence for controlled verification errors

Statistical dependence between classifier decisions is often shown to improve performance over statistically independent decisions. Though the solution for favourable dependence between two classifier decisions has been derived, the theoretical analysis for the general case of 'n' client and impostor decision fusion has not been presented before. This paper presents the expressions developed for favourable dependence of multi-instance and multi-sample fusion schemes that employ 'AND' and 'OR' rules. The expressions are experimentally evaluated by considering the proposed architecture for text-dependent speaker verification using HMM based digit dependent speaker models. The improvement in fusion performance is found to be higher when digit combinations with favourable client and impostor decisions are used for speaker verification. The total error rate of 20% for fusion of independent decisions is reduced to 2.1% for fusion of decisions that are favourable for both client and impostors. The expressions developed here are also applicable to other biometric modalities, such as finger prints and handwriting samples, for reliable identity verification.

Non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage defects using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in osteoarthritic rat models and its direct relation to Mankin Score

Objective The aim of this study was to demonstrate the potential of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for categorizing cartilage degeneration induced in animal models. Method Three models of osteoarthritic degeneration were induced in laboratory rats via one of the following methods: (i) menisectomy (MSX); (ii) anterior cruciate ligament transaction (ACLT); and (iii) intra-articular injection of mono-ido-acetete (1 mg) (MIA), in the right knee joint, with 12 rats per model group. After 8 weeks, the animals were sacrificed and tibial knee joints were collected. A custom-made nearinfrared (NIR) probe of diameter 5 mm was placed on the cartilage surface and spectral data were acquired from each specimen in the wavenumber range 4 000 – 12 500 cm−1. Following spectral data acquisition, the specimens were fixed and Safranin–O staining was performed to assess disease severity based on the Mankin scoring system. Using multivariate statistical analysis based on principal component analysis and partial least squares regression, the spectral data were then related to the Mankinscores of the samples tested. Results Mild to severe degenerative cartilage changes were observed in the subject animals. The ACLT models showed mild cartilage degeneration, MSX models moderate, and MIA severe cartilage degenerative changes both morphologically and histologically. Our result demonstrate that NIR spectroscopic information is capable of separating the cartilage samples into different groups relative to the severity of degeneration, with NIR correlating significantly with their Mankinscore (R2 = 88.85%). Conclusion We conclude that NIR is a viable tool for evaluating articularcartilage health and physical properties such as change in thickness with degeneration.

Detecting common dynamics in transitory components

This paper considers VECMs for variables exhibiting cointegration and common features in the transitory components. While the presence of cointegration between the permanent components of series reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, a common feature among the transitory components leads to a rank reduction in the matrix summarizing short-run dynamics. The common feature also implies that there exists linear combinations of the first-differenced variables in a cointegrated VAR that are white noise and traditional tests focus on testing for this characteristic. An alternative, however, is to test the rank of the short-run dynamics matrix directly. Consequently, we use the literature on testing the rank of a matrix to produce some alternative test statistics. We also show that these are identical to one of the traditional tests. The performance of the different methods is illustrated in a Monte Carlo analysis which is then used to re-examine an existing empirical study. Finally, this approach is applied to provide a check for the presence of common dynamics in DSGE models.

Evaluation of an inactivated Ross River virus vaccine in active and passive mouse immunization models and establishment of a correlate of protection

Ross River Virus has caused reported outbreaks of epidemic polyarthritis, a chronic debilitating disease associated with significant long-term morbidity in Australia and the Pacific region since the 1920s. To address this public health concern, a formalin- and UV-inactivated whole virus vaccine grown in animal protein-free cell culture was developed and tested in preclinical studies to evaluate immunogenicity and efficacy in animal models. After active immunizations, the vaccine dose-dependently induced antibodies and protected adult mice from viremia and interferon α/β receptor knock-out (IFN-α/βR(-/-)) mice from death and disease. In passive transfer studies, administration of human vaccinee sera followed by RRV challenge protected adult mice from viremia and young mice from development of arthritic signs similar to human RRV-induced disease. Based on the good correlation between antibody titers in human sera and protection of animals, a correlate of protection was defined. This is of particular importance for the evaluation of the vaccine because of the comparatively low annual incidence of RRV disease, which renders a classical efficacy trial impractical. Antibody-dependent enhancement of infection, did not occur in mice even at low to undetectable concentrations of vaccine-induced antibodies. Also, RRV vaccine-induced antibodies were partially cross-protective against infection with a related alphavirus, Chikungunya virus, and did not enhance infection. Based on these findings, the inactivated RRV vaccine is expected to be efficacious and protect humans from RRV disease

A visual language for the collaborative visualization of integrated conceptual models in product development scenarios

In various industrial and scientific fields, conceptual models are derived from real world problem spaces to understand and communicate containing entities and coherencies. Abstracted models mirror the common understanding and information demand of engineers, who apply conceptual models for performing their daily tasks. However, most standardized models in Process Management, Product Lifecycle Management and Enterprise Resource Planning lack of a scientific foundation for their notation. In collaboration scenarios with stakeholders from several disciplines, tailored conceptual models complicate communication processes, as a common understanding is not shared or implemented in specific models. To support direct communication between experts from several disciplines, a visual language is developed which allows a common visualization of discipline-specific conceptual models. For visual discrimination and to overcome visual complexity issues, conceptual models are arranged in a three-dimensional space. The visual language introduced here follows and extends established principles of Visual Language science.

Some extensions to representation and encoding of structure in models of distributional semantics

This thesis makes several contributions towards improved methods for encoding structure in computational models of word meaning. New methods are proposed and evaluated which address the requirement of being able to easily encode linguistic structural features within a computational representation while retaining the ability to scale to large volumes of textual data. Various methods are implemented and evaluated on a range of evaluation tasks to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Measuring the biases in self-reported disability status : Evidence from aggregate data

Self-reported health status measures are generally used to analyse Social Security Disability Insurance's (SSDI) application and award decisions as well as the relationship between its generosity and labour force participation. Due to endogeneity and measurement error, the use of self-reported health and disability indicators as explanatory variables in economic models is problematic. We employ county-level aggregate data, instrumental variables and spatial econometric techniques to analyse the determinants of variation in SSDI rates and explicitly account for the endogeneity and measurement error of the self-reported disability measure. Two surprising results are found. First, it is shown that measurement error is the dominating source of the bias and that the main source of measurement error is sampling error. Second, results suggest that there may be synergies for applying for SSDI when the disabled population is larger. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Models of survivorship care provision in adult patients with haematological cancer : an integrative literature review

Purpose: Increasing numbers of haematology cancer survivors warrants identification of the most effective model of survivorship care to survivors from a diverse range of haematological cancers with aggressive treatment regimens. This review aimed to identify models of survivorship care to support the needs of haematology cancer survivors. Methods: An integrative literature review method utilised a search of electronic databases (CINAHL, Medline, PsycInfo, PubMed, EMBASE, PsycArticles, Cochrane Library) for eligible articles (up to July 2014). Articles were included if they proposed or reported the use of a model of care for haematology cancer survivors. Results: Fourteen articles were included in this review. Eight articles proposed and described models of care and six reported the use of a range of survivorship models of care in haematology cancer survivors. No randomised controlled trials or literature reviews were found to have been undertaken specifically with this cohort of cancer survivors. There was variation in the models described and who provided the survivorship care. Conclusion: Due to the lack of studies evaluating the effectiveness of models of care, it is difficult to determine the best model of care for haematology cancer survivors. Many different models of care are being put into practice before robust research is conducted. Therefore well-designed high quality pragmatic randomised controlled trials are required to inform clinical practice.

Fractional models in space for diffusive processes in heterogeneous media with applications in cell motility and electrical signal propagation

This work addresses fundamental issues in the mathematical modelling of the diffusive motion of particles in biological and physiological settings. New mathematical results are proved and implemented in computer models for the colonisation of the embryonic gut by neural cells and the propagation of electrical waves in the heart, offering new insights into the relationships between structure and function. In particular, the thesis focuses on the use of non-local differential operators of non-integer order to capture the main features of diffusion processes occurring in complex spatial structures characterised by high levels of heterogeneity.

Prevalence of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran

PURPOSE To determine the prevalence of refractive errors in Shiraz schoolchildren by age and gender. METHODS For this cross-sectional study, random cluster sampling was carried out from students of the 2008-2009 academic year. After the initial interview, ophthalmic examinations including tests of visual acuity, non-cycloplegic and cycloplegic refraction and binocular vision were performed. Myopia was defined as a spherical equivalent < or =-0.50 dioptre (D), hyperopia as > or =+2.0 D, and astigmatism as a cylinder refraction > or =0.75 D. All values for school grade and gender were directly standardized based on the total student population in the 2008-2009 school year. RESULTS A total of 2130 students were sampled, of which 1872 participated in the study (response rate = 87.88%). The prevalence of uncorrected, best-corrected, presenting and spectacle corrected visual acuity of 6/12 or worse in the better eye was 6.46%, 0%, 1.49% and 0.9%, respectively. The prevalence rates of myopia, hyperopia and astigmatism were 4.35% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.89-5.82%), 5.04% (95% CI: 3.50-6.58%), and 11.27% (95% CI: 9.81-12.74%), respectively. Anisometropia was detected in 2.58% of schoolchildren. The prevalence of hyperopia significantly decreased with age (P = 0.021). CONCLUSIONS Compared with other reported rates, the prevalence of myopia in the schoolchildren of Shiraz is similar to that in most places excluding East Asian countries, and that of hyperopia is in the mid range.

Prevalence and risk factors of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran

Purpose: To determine the prevalence and risk factors of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz, Iran. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, using random cluster sampling, 3065 Shiraz schoolchildren were selected in this study. The participants totaled 2683; 1872 elementary and middle school and 811 high school students. For the primary and middle schoolchildren, cycloplegic refraction and for the high school students, non-cycloplegic autorefraction was measured. Myopia, defined as spherical equivalent (SE) refraction -0.50 diopter (D) or worse, hyperopia as SE +2.00D and +0.50D or more for cycloplegic and noncycloplegic refractions respectively, and astigmatism as cylinder -0.75D or worse. Results: The prevalence of refractive errors in elementary and middle school students was: myopia 4.35 % (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.89 -5.81), hyperopia 5.04 % (95%CI, 3.49 -6.58) and astigmatism 11.79 % (95%CI, 10.21 -13.38). For high school students, these rates were 22.4 % (95%CI, 18.44 -26.36), 10.52 % (95%CI, 6.75 -14.29) and 20.99% (95%CI, 16.55 -25.44), respectively.The prevalence of myopia increased with age in primary and middle school students (OR=1.15, 95% CI, 0.98 to1.33, p=0.073). Conclusions: The result of this study indicated a relatively low prevalence of refractive errors among schoolchildren in Shiraz according to the protocol by "Refractive Error Study in Children" (RESC) in other investigations.

Evaluation of a patient-specific finite-element model to simulate conservative treatment in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Study design Retrospective validation study. Objectives To propose a method to evaluate, from a clinical standpoint, the ability of a finite-element model (FEM) of the trunk to simulate orthotic correction of spinal deformity and to apply it to validate a previously described FEM. Summary of background data Several FEMs of the scoliotic spine have been described in the literature. These models can prove useful in understanding the mechanisms of scoliosis progression and in optimizing its treatment, but their validation has often been lacking or incomplete. Methods Three-dimensional (3D) geometries of 10 patients before and during conservative treatment were reconstructed from biplanar radiographs. The effect of bracing was simulated by modeling displacements induced by the brace pads. Simulated clinical indices (Cobb angle, T1–T12 and T4–T12 kyphosis, L1–L5 lordosis, apical vertebral rotation, torsion, rib hump) and vertebral orientations and positions were compared to those measured in the patients' 3D geometries. Results Errors in clinical indices were of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties due to 3D reconstruction; for instance, Cobb angle was simulated with a root mean square error of 5.7°, and rib hump error was 5.6°. Vertebral orientation was simulated with a root mean square error of 4.8° and vertebral position with an error of 2.5 mm. Conclusions The methodology proposed here allowed in-depth evaluation of subject-specific simulations, confirming that FEMs of the trunk have the potential to accurately simulate brace action. These promising results provide a basis for ongoing 3D model development, toward the design of more efficient orthoses.

Mimicking breast cancer-induced bone metastasis in vivo: Current transplantation models and advanced humanized strategies

Bone metastasis is a complication that occurs in 80 % of women with advanced breast cancer. Despite the prevalence of bone metastatic disease, the avenues for its clinical management are still restricted to palliative treatment options. In fact, the underlying mechanisms of breast cancer osteotropism have not yet been fully elucidated due to a lack of suitable in vivo models that are able to recapitulate the human disease. In this work, we review the current transplantation-based models to investigate breast cancer-induced bone metastasis and delineate the strengths and limitations of the use of different grafting techniques, tissue sources, and hosts. We further show that humanized xenograft models incorporating human cells or tissue grafts at the primary tumor site or the metastatic site mimic more closely the human disease. Tissue-engineered constructs are emerging as a reproducible alternative to recapitulate functional humanized tissues in these murine models. The development of advanced humanized animal models may provide better platforms to investigate the mutual interactions between human cancer cells and their microenvironment and ultimately improve the translation of preclinical drug trials to the clinic.