Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots

Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites—roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.—with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing with preponderance of zeros problem or right skewed dataset.

Fire resistance rating of light gauge steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fires : a review and development of time equivalent approach

This paper presents the details of research undertaken on the development of an energy based time equivalent approach for light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls. This research utilized an energy based time equivalent approach to obtain the fire resistance ratings (FRR) of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires with respect to standard fire exposure [1]. It is based on the equal area concept of fire severity and relates to the amount of energy transferred to the member. The proposed method was used to predict the fire resistance of single and double plasterboard lined and externally insulated LSF walls. The predicted fire resistance ratings were compared with the results from finite element analyses and fire design rules for three different wall configurations. This paper presents the review of the available time equivalent approaches and the development of energy based time equivalent approach for the prediction of fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires.

Theorizing in design science research : an abstraction layers framework

For Design Science Research (DSR) to gain wide credence as a research paradigm in Information Systems (IS), it must contribute to theory. “Theory cannot be improved until we improve the theorizing process, and we cannot improve the theorizing process until we describe it more explicitly, operate it more self-consciously, and decouple it from validation more deliberately” (Weick 1989, p. 516). With the aim of improved design science theorizing, we propose a DSR abstraction-layers framework that integrates, interlates, and harmonizes key methodological notions, primary of which are: 1) the Design Science (DS), Design Research (DR), and Routine Design (RD) distinction (Winter 2008); 2) Multi Grounding in IS Design Theory (ISDT) (Goldkuhl & Lind 2010); 3) the Idealized Model for Theory Development (IM4TD) (Fischer & Gregor 2011); and 4) the DSR Theorizing Framework (Lee et al. 2011). Though theorizing, or the abstraction process, has been the subject of healthy discussion in DSR, important questions remain. With most attention to date having focused on theorizing for Design Research (DR), a key stimulus of the layered view was the realization that Design Science (DS) produces abstract knowledge at a higher level of generality. The resultant framework includes four abstraction layers: (i) Design Research (DR) 1st Abstract Layer, (ii) Design Science (DS) 2nd Abstract Layer, (iii) DSR Incubation 3rd Layer, and (iv) Routine Design 4th Layer. Differentiating and inter-relating these layers will aid DSR researchers to discover, position, and amplify their DSR contributions. Additionally, consideration of the four layers can trigger creative perspectives that suggest unplanned outputs. The first abstraction layer, including its alternative patterns of activity, is well recognized in the literature. The other layers, however, are less well recognized; and the integrated representation of layers is novel.

ZnO layers for opto-electronic applications from solution-based and low-temperature processing of an organometallic precursor

As printed and flexible plastic electronic gadgets become increasingly viable today, there is a need to develop materials that suit the fabrication processes involved. Two desirable requirements are solution-processable active materials or precursors and low-temperature processability. In this article, we describe a straightforward method of depositing ZnO films by simple spin coating of an organometallic diethylzinc precursor solution and annealing the resulting film at low temperatures (≤200 °C) without involving any synthetic steps. By controlling the humidity in which annealing is conducted, we are able to adjust the intrinsic doping level and carrier concentration in diethylzinc-derived ZnO. Doped or conducting transport layers are greatly preferable to undoped layers as they enable low-resistance contacts and minimize the potential drops. This ability to controllably realize doped ZnO is a key feature of the fabrication process that we describe in this article. We employ field-effect measurements as a diagnostic tool to measure doping levels and mobilities in ZnO and demonstrate that doped ZnO with high charge carrier concentration is ideal for solar cell applications. Respectable power conversion efficiencies (up to 4.5%) are achieved in inverted solar cells that incorporate diethylzinc-derived ZnO films as the electron transport layer and organic blends as the active material. Extensions of this approach to grow ternary and quaternary films with organometallic precursor chemicals will enable solution based growth of a number of semiconductor films as well as a method to dope them.

Women IN Sport or Women OR Sport - The search for work/sport/life balance.

The current ‘holy grail’ for our health and well-being centres around the search for, and establishment of, a work/life balance. For many individuals, this appears to be an ever-elusive goal – forever slipping from our grasp as we juggle the day-to-day battle for our attention and time from an array of sources. When we add the word ‘Women’ to this mix, often the number of sources related to these demands multiplies in alignment with the number of roles we fill. To take this to even another level, consider the addition of the words ‘Sport’ or ‘Elite Athlete’ to ‘Women’ and ‘Work/Life Balance’, and the search for the ‘holy grail’ becomes more literal! Many sportswomen at the elite level face significant challenges in balancing working to support themselves and/or their families, studying to lay the foundations of a post-sport career, (often) spending the equivalent of full-time hours training towards their sporting goals, and additionally investing in the things that are important for them outside of these two areas – the ‘Life’ component. Getting the work/life balance ‘balanced’ has been suggested to be a key component of investing in our health and well-being. The same is applicable to sportswomen, with the added suggestion that if the balance between work/sport/life is achieved, this can positively impact upon sporting performance itself. These ideas and observations will be explored via experience within the Australian elite sporting environment from a psychologist’s perspective, with questions and invitations for further discussion.

Submarine record of volcanic island construction and collapse in the Lesser Antilles arc: First scientific drilling of submarine volcanic island landslides by IODP Expedition 340

IODP Expedition 340 successfully drilled a series of sites offshore Montserrat, Martinique and Dominica in the Lesser Antilles from March to April 2012. These are among the few drill sites gathered around volcanic islands, and the first scientific drilling of large and likely tsunamigenic volcanic island-arc landslide deposits. These cores provide evidence and tests of previous hypotheses for the composition and origin of those deposits. Sites U1394, U1399, and U1400 that penetrated landslide deposits recovered exclusively seafloor sediment, comprising mainly turbidites and hemipelagic deposits, and lacked debris avalanche deposits. This supports the concepts that i/ volcanic debris avalanches tend to stop at the slope break, and ii/ widespread and voluminous failures of preexisting low-gradient seafloor sediment can be triggered by initial emplacement of material from the volcano. Offshore Martinique (U1399 and 1400), the landslide deposits comprised blocks of parallel strata that were tilted or microfaulted, sometimes separated by intervals of homogenized sediment (intense shearing), while Site U1394 offshore Montserrat penetrated a flat-lying block of intact strata. The most likely mechanism for generating these large-scale seafloor sediment failures appears to be propagation of a decollement from proximal areas loaded and incised by a volcanic debris avalanche. These results have implications for the magnitude of tsunami generation. Under some conditions, volcanic island landslide deposits composed of mainly seafloor sediment will tend to form smaller magnitude tsunamis than equivalent volumes of subaerial block-rich mass flows rapidly entering water. Expedition 340 also successfully drilled sites to access the undisturbed record of eruption fallout layers intercalated with marine sediment which provide an outstanding high-resolution data set to analyze eruption and landslides cycles, improve understanding of magmatic evolution as well as offshore sedimentation processes.

Use of 3D printed materials as tissue-equivalent phantoms

This study used the specific example of 3D printing with acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) as a means to investigate the potential usefulness of benchtop rapid prototyping as a technique for producing patient specific phantoms for radiotherapy dosimetry. Three small cylinders and one model of a human lung were produced via in-house 3D printing with ABS, using 90%, 50%, 30% and 10% ABS infill densities. These phantom samples were evaluated in terms of their geometric accuracy, tissue equivalence and radiation hardness, when irradiated using a range of clinical radiotherapy beams. The measured dimensions of the small cylindrical phantoms all matched their planned dimensions, within 1mm. The lung phantom was less accurately matched to the lung geometry on which it was based, due to simplifications introduced during the phantom design process. The mass densities, electron densities and linear attenuation coefficients identified using CT data, as well as the results of film measurements made using megavoltage photon and electron beams, indicated that phantoms printed with ABS, using infill densities of 30% or more, are potentially useful as lung- and tissue-equivalent phantoms for patient-specific radiotherapy dosimetry. All cylindrical 3D printed phantom samples were found to be unaffected by prolonged radiation and to accurately match their design specifications. However, care should be taken to avoid oversimplifying anatomical structures when printing more complex phantoms.

Energy based time equivalent approach to determine the fire resistance ratings of light gauge steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fire curves

Structural fire safety has become one of the key considerations in the design and maintenance of the built infrastructure. Conventionally the fire resistance rating of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls is determined based on the standard time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. Recent research has shown that the true fire resistance of building elements exposed to building fires can be less than their fire resistance ratings determined based on standard fire tests. It is questionable whether the standard time-temperature curve truly represents the fuel loads in modern buildings. Therefore an equivalent fire severity approach has been used in the past to obtain fire resistance rating. This is based on the performance of a structural member exposed to a realistic design fire curve in comparison to that of standard fire time-temperature curve. This paper presents the details of research undertaken to develop an energy based time equivalent approach to obtain the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fire curves with respect to standard fire exposure. This approach relates to the amount of energy transferred to the member. The proposed method was used to predict the fire resistance ratings of single and double layer plasterboard lined and externally insulated LSF walls. The predicted fire ratings were compared with the results from finite element analyses and fire design rules for three different wall configurations exposed to both rapid and prolonged fires. The comparison shows that the proposed energy method can be used to obtain the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls in the case of prolonged fires.

Numerical analysis for the interlayer toughening of piezoelectric smart composite plate

The piezoelectric composite material could engender stress concentration resulting from small cracks during layers easily, as the cracks growth will lead to the failure of the whole structure. In this paper, a finite element model for piezoelectric composite materials by ABAQUS including interlayer crack was established, and the J integral and crack tip stress of different types PZT patches were calculated by using the equivalent integral method. Then, the J integral for adhesive layers with different thickness, elastic modulus considering and not considering piezoelectricity was investigated. The results show that the J integral of mode I, II reduces with thicker adhesive layer and lower elastic modules, and the J integral of mode II decreases more sharply than that of mode I.

Diurnal variation of anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness

Purpose To examine whether anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness undergoes significant diurnal variation over a 24-hour period. Methods Nineteen healthy young adults (mean age 22 ± 2 years) with minimal refractive error (mean spherical equivalent refraction -0.08 ± 0.39 D), had measures of anterior scleral and conjunctival thickness collected using anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) at seven measurement sessions over a 24-hour period. The thickness of the temporal anterior sclera and conjunctiva were determined at 6 locations (each separated by 0.5 mm) at varying distances from the scleral spur for each subject at each measurement session. Results Both the anterior sclera and conjunctiva were found to undergo significant diurnal variations in thickness over a 24-hour period (both p <0.01). The sclera and conjunctiva exhibited a similar pattern of diurnal change, with a small magnitude thinning observed close to midday, and a larger magnitude thickening observed in the early morning immediately after waking. The amplitude of diurnal thickness change was larger in the conjunctiva (mean amplitude 69 ± 29 μm) compared to the sclera (21 ± 8 μm). The conjunctiva exhibited its smallest magnitude of change at the scleral spur location (mean amplitude 56 ± 17 μm) whereas the sclera exhibited its largest magnitude of change at this location (52 ± 21 μm). Conclusions This study provides the first evidence of diurnal variations occurring in the thickness of the anterior sclera and conjunctiva. Studies requiring precise measures of these anatomical layers should therefore take time of day into consideration. The majority of the observed changes occurred in the early morning immediately after waking and were of larger magnitude in the conjunctiva compared to the sclera. Thickness changes at other times of the day were of smaller magnitude and generally not statistically significant.

A semi-analytical solution for multilayer diffusion in a composite medium consisting of a large number of layers

Diffusion in a composite slab consisting of a large number of layers provides an ideal prototype problem for developing and analysing two-scale modelling approaches for heterogeneous media. Numerous analytical techniques have been proposed for solving the transient diffusion equation in a one-dimensional composite slab consisting of an arbitrary number of layers. Most of these approaches, however, require the solution of a complex transcendental equation arising from a matrix determinant for the eigenvalues that is difficult to solve numerically for a large number of layers. To overcome this issue, in this paper, we present a semi-analytical method based on the Laplace transform and an orthogonal eigenfunction expansion. The proposed approach uses eigenvalues local to each layer that can be obtained either explicitly, or by solving simple transcendental equations. The semi-analytical solution is applicable to both perfect and imperfect contact at the interfaces between adjacent layers and either Dirichlet, Neumann or Robin boundary conditions at the ends of the slab. The solution approach is verified for several test cases and is shown to work well for a large number of layers. The work is concluded with an application to macroscopic modelling where the solution of a fine-scale multilayered medium consisting of two hundred layers is compared against an “up-scaled” variant of the same problem involving only ten layers.