606 resultados para Business forecasting.
Resumo:
QUT (Queensland University of Technology) is a leading university based in the city of Brisbane, Queensland, Australia and is a selectively research intensive university with 2,500 higher degree research students and an overall student population of 45,000 students. The transition from print to online resources is largely completed and the library now provides access to 450,000 print books, 1,000 print journals, 600,000 ebooks, 120,000 ejournals and 100,000 online videos. The ebook collection is now used three times as much as the print book collection. This paper focuses on QUT Library’s ebook strategy and the challenges of building and managing a rapidly growing collection of ebooks using a range of publishers, platforms, and business and financial models. The paper provides an account of QUT Library’s experiences in using Patron Driven Acquisition (PDA) using eBook Library (EBL); the strategic procurement of publisher and subject collections by lease and outright purchase models, the more recent transition to Evidence Based Selection (EBS) options provided by some publishers, and its piloting of etextbook models. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of each of these business models at QUT, focusing on access verses collection development, usage, cost per use, and value for money.
Resumo:
The pervasive use of the World Wide Web by the general population has created a cultural shift throughout the world. It has enabled more people to share more information about more events and issues than was possible before its general use. As a consequence, it has transformed traditional news media’s approach to almost every aspect of journalism, with many organisations restructuring their philosophy and practice to include a variety of participatory spaces/forums where people are free to engage in deliberative dialogue about matters of public importance. This paper draws from an international collective case study that showcases various approaches to participatory online news journalism during the period 1997–2011 (Adams, 2013). The research finds differences in the ways in which public service, commercial, and independent news media give voice to the public, and ultimately in their approach to journalism’s role as the Fourth Estate––one of the key institutions of democracy. The work is framed by the notion that journalism in democratic societies has a crucial role in ensuring citizens are informed and engaged with public affairs. An examination of four media models, OhmyNews International, News Corp Australia (formerly News Limited), the Guardian and the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), showcases the various approaches to participatory online news journalism and how each provides different avenues for citizen engagement. Semistructured in-depth interviews with some of the key senior journalists and editors provide specific information on comparisons between the distinctive practices in each of their employer organisations.
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In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.
Resumo:
Existing process mining techniques provide summary views of the overall process performance over a period of time, allowing analysts to identify bottlenecks and associated performance issues. However, these tools are not de- signed to help analysts understand how bottlenecks form and dissolve over time nor how the formation and dissolution of bottlenecks – and associated fluctua- tions in demand and capacity – affect the overall process performance. This paper presents an approach to analyze the evolution of process performance via a notion of Staged Process Flow (SPF). An SPF abstracts a business process as a series of queues corresponding to stages. The paper defines a number of stage character- istics and visualizations that collectively allow process performance evolution to be analyzed from multiple perspectives. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining framework. The paper demonstrates the advantages of the SPF approach over state-of-the-art process performance mining tools using two real-life event logs publicly available.
Resumo:
We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.
Resumo:
Overprocessing waste occurs in a business process when effort is spent in a way that does not add value to the customer nor to the business. Previous studies have identied a recurrent overprocessing pattern in business processes with so-called "knockout checks", meaning activities that classify a case into "accepted" or "rejected", such that if the case is accepted it proceeds forward, while if rejected, it is cancelled and all work performed in the case is considered unnecessary. Thus, when a knockout check rejects a case, the effort spent in other (previous) checks becomes overprocessing waste. Traditional process redesign methods propose to order knockout checks according to their mean effort and rejection rate. This paper presents a more fine-grained approach where knockout checks are ordered at runtime based on predictive machine learning models. Experiments on two real-life processes show that this predictive approach outperforms traditional methods while incurring minimal runtime overhead.
Resumo:
We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.
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This research contributes a formal framework to evaluate whether existing CMFs can model and reason about various types of normative requirements. The framework can be used to determine the level of coverage of concepts provided by CMFs, establish mappings between CMF languages and the semantics for the normative concepts and evaluate the suitability of a CMF for issuing a certification of compliance. The developed framework is independent of any specific formalism and it has been formally defined and validated through the examples of such mappings of CMFs.
Resumo:
This article presents a method for checking the conformance between an event log capturing the actual execution of a business process, and a model capturing its expected or normative execution. Given a business process model and an event log, the method returns a set of statements in natural language describing the behavior allowed by the process model but not observed in the log and vice versa. The method relies on a unified representation of process models and event logs based on a well-known model of concurrency, namely event structures. Specifically, the problem of conformance checking is approached by folding the input event log into an event structure, unfolding the process model into another event structure, and comparing the two event structures via an error-correcting synchronized product. Each behavioral difference detected in the synchronized product is then verbalized as a natural language statement. An empirical evaluation shows that the proposed method scales up to real-life datasets while producing more concise and higher-level difference descriptions than state-of-the-art conformance checking methods.
Resumo:
The music business is one of the most international of all the cultural industries. Music, industry practices, and people travel easily across country borders and the major music companies are dominating national music markets across the globe. However, at the same time the music industries in different countries are very idiosyncratic. Music is an ingrained part of a country’s history, its culture and heritage. One aspect of this idiosyncrasy is related to how creatives, audiences and music organizations are affected by and is able to take advantage of the ongoing digitization of society.
Resumo:
The recently proposed $338 million merger of Australian vet and pet products companies Greencross and Petbarn illustrates something that perhaps we have known for a while now: our pets are becoming more important to us than ever before. Pets are no longer viewed simply as animals, but have become “humanised” to the point that they are considered by many to be members of the family. Indeed, nearly 90% of Australians polled in a recent survey said they thought of their dog or cat as a member of the family, and even admitted to treating them better than human family members, which has a substantial impact on purchasing behaviours...
Resumo:
Regardless of your industry, the marketplace is continually evolving. The reason, increasingly, is the evolution of disruptive technology. Disruptive technologies are enhanced or new technological innovations that essentially displace conventional and established technology, rendering it obsolete. They can create opportunities for new products, new markets, and new ways of conducting business. In 2016, business models will again change as businesses adapt. The enhancement of current technology and the development of new technological innovations will undeniably transform how new businesses are established, and how existing businesses compete. For small and medium-sized firms, technology will also enable significant leaps forward in terms of innovation, efficiency and competitiveness. Adapting quickly will be essential, so here’s the top six we think you should be prepared for.
Resumo:
The research field of Business Process Management (BPM) has gradually developed as a discipline situated within the computer, management and information systems sciences. Its evolution has been shaped by its own conference series, the BPM conference. Still, as with any other academic discipline, debates accrue and persist, which target the identity as well as the quality and maturity of the BPM field. In this paper, we contribute to the debate on the identity and progress of the BPM conference research community through an analysis of the BPM conference proceedings. We develop an understanding of signs of progress of research presented at this conference, where, how, and why papers in this conference have had an impact, and the most appropriate formats for disseminating influential research in this conference. Based on our findings from this analysis, we provide conclusions about the state of the conference series and develop a set of recommendations to further develop the conference community in terms of research maturity, methodological advance, quality, impact, and progression.
Resumo:
The authors investigated generativity – the concern in establishing and guiding the next generation – as a mediator of the relationship between family business owners' age and succession in family businesses. Data came from 155 family business owners in Germany from different industries between the ages of 26 and 83 years. Results showed that age was positively related to generativity, and that generativity, in turn, positively influenced an objective measure of family succession. Generativity fully mediated the positive relationship between age and family succession. The findings suggest that generativity is an important psycho-social construct for understanding ageing, careers and succession in family business settings.
Resumo:
Combining upper echelons and lifespan theories, we investigated the mediating effect of focus on opportunities on the negative relationship between business owners' age and venture growth. We also expected that mental health moderates the negative relationship between business owners' age and focus on opportunities. Path analytic findings based on data from 84 business owners (mean age = 44, range 24-74) supported these hypotheses. Findings suggest that focus on opportunities is a psychological mechanism that links business owners' age with venture growth. Our findings also indicate that mental health helps maintain a high level of focus on opportunities with increasing age.