A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Self-reported circumstances and consequences of driving while sleepy

Driver surveys are indispensable sources of information when estimating the role of sleepiness in crash causation. The purpose of the study was to (1) identify the prevalence of driving while sleepy among Finnish drivers, (2) determine the circumstances of such instances, and (3) identify risk factors and risk groups. Survey data were collected from a representative sample of active Finnish drivers (N = 1121). One-fifth of the drivers (19.5%) reported having fallen asleep at the wheel during their driving career, with 15.9% reporting having been close to falling asleep or having difficulty staying awake when driving during the previous twelve months. Epworth Sleepiness Scale scores were found to be associated with both types of sleepiness-related driving instances, while sleep quality was associated only with the latter. Compared to women, men more often reported falling asleep at the wheel; the differences were somewhat smaller with respect to fighting sleep while driving during the previous twelve months. The reported discrepancy in sleepiness-related instances (high prevalence of fighting sleep while driving during the previous twelve months and lower proportion of actually falling asleep) identifies young men (⩽25 years) as one of the main target groups for safety campaigns. Approximately three-quarters of drivers who had fallen asleep while driving reported taking action against falling asleep before it actually happened. Furthermore, almost all drivers who had fallen asleep while driving offered at least one logical reason that could have contributed to their falling asleep. These data indicate some degree of awareness about driving while sleepy and of the potential pre-trip factors that could lead to sleepiness while driving, and supports the notion that falling asleep at the wheel does not come as a (complete) surprise to the driver.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Parallel streaming signature EM-tree: A clustering algorithm for web scale applications

The proliferation of the web presents an unsolved problem of automatically analyzing billions of pages of natural language. We introduce a scalable algorithm that clusters hundreds of millions of web pages into hundreds of thousands of clusters. It does this on a single mid-range machine using efficient algorithms and compressed document representations. It is applied to two web-scale crawls covering tens of terabytes. ClueWeb09 and ClueWeb12 contain 500 and 733 million web pages and were clustered into 500,000 to 700,000 clusters. To the best of our knowledge, such fine grained clustering has not been previously demonstrated. Previous approaches clustered a sample that limits the maximum number of discoverable clusters. The proposed EM-tree algorithm uses the entire collection in clustering and produces several orders of magnitude more clusters than the existing algorithms. Fine grained clustering is necessary for meaningful clustering in massive collections where the number of distinct topics grows linearly with collection size. These fine-grained clusters show an improved cluster quality when assessed with two novel evaluations using ad hoc search relevance judgments and spam classifications for external validation. These evaluations solve the problem of assessing the quality of clusters where categorical labeling is unavailable and unfeasible.

Employability skills: Perspectives from a knowledge-intensive industry

Purpose: While the global education debate remains focused on graduate skills and employability, the absence of a shared language between student, academic and industry stakeholder groups means that defining industry skills requirements is both essential and difficult. The aim of this study was to assess graduate skills requirements in a knowledge intensive industry from a demand perspective as distinct from a curriculum (supply) viewpoint. Design/methodology/approach: Skills items were derived from a breadth of disciplines across academic, policy and industry literature. CEOs and senior managers in the innovation and commercialisation industry were surveyed regarding perceptions of skills in graduates and skills in demand by the firm. Two rounds of exploratory factor analyses were undertaken to examine employers’ perceptions of the skills gap. Findings: First order analysis resolved 10 broad constructs that represent cognitive, interpersonal and intrapersonal skills domains as applied in this industry. Knowledge, leadership and interprofessional collaboration feature as prominent skills. Second order analysis revealed employers’ perceptions of graduate skills specifically centre on organisational fit and organisational success. An over-arching theme relates to performance of the individual in organisations. Research limitations/implications: Our findings suggest that the discourse on employability and the design of curriculum need to shift from instilling lists of skills towards enabling graduates to perform in a diversity of workplace contexts and expectations centred on organisational purpose. Originality/value: In contrast to the heterogeneous nature of industry surveys, we targeted a homogenous sector that is representative of knowledge intensive industries. This study contributes to the broader stakeholder dialogue of the value and application of graduate skills in this and other industry sectors.

BRCA1 deficiency exacerbates estrogen-induced DNA damage and genomic instability

Germline mutations in BRCA1 predispose carriers to a high incidence of breast and ovarian cancers. BRCA1 functions to maintain genomic stability through critical roles in DNA repair, cell cycle arrest and transcriptional control. A major question has been why BRCA1 loss or mutation leads to tumors mainly in estrogen-regulated tissues, given that BRCA1 has essential functions in all cell types. Here we report that estrogen and estrogen metabolites can cause DNA double strand breaks (DSB) in estrogen receptor-α negative breast cells and that BRCA1 is required to repair these DSBs to prevent metabolite-induced genomic instability. We found that BRCA1 also regulates estrogen metabolism and metabolite-mediated DNA damage by repressing the transcription of estrogen-metabolising enzymes, such as CYP1A1, in breast cells. Lastly, we used a knock-in human cell model with a heterozygous BRCA1 pathogenic mutation to show how BRCA1 haploinsufficiency affects these processes. Our findings provide pivotal new insights into why BRCA1 mutation drives the formation of tumours in estrogen-regulated tissues, despite the general role of BRCA1 in DNA repair in all cell types.

The organisational context of nursing care in stroke units: A case study approach

Background Internationally the stroke unit is recognised as the evidence-based model for patient management, although clarity about the effective components of stroke units is lacking. Whilst skilled nursing care has been proposed as one component, the theoretical and empirical basis for stroke nursing is limited. We attempted to explore the organisational context of stroke unit nursing, to determine those features that staff perceived to be important in facilitating high quality care. Design A case study approach was used, that included interviews with nurses and members of the multidisciplinary teams in two Canadian acute stroke units. A total of 20 interviews were completed, transcribed and analysed thematically using the Framework Approach. Trustworthiness was established through the review of themes and their interpretation by members of the stroke units. Findings Nine themes that comprised an organisational context that supported the delivery of high quality nursing care in acute stroke units were identified, and provide a framework for organisational development. The study highlighted the importance of an overarching service model to guide the organisation of care and the development of specialist and advanced nursing roles. Whilst multidisciplinary working appears to be a key component of stroke unit nursing, various organisational challenges to its successful implementation were highlighted. In particular the consequence of differences in the therapeutic approach of nurses and therapy staff needs to be explored in greater depth. Successful teamwork appears to depend on opportunities for the development of relationships between team members as much as the use of formal communication systems and structures. A co-ordinated approach to education and training, clinical leadership, a commitment to research, and opportunities for role and practice development also appear to be key organisational features of stroke unit nursing. Recommendations for the development of stroke nursing leadership and future research into teamwork in stroke settings are made.

Oldest pathology in a tetrapod bone illuminates the origin of terrestrial vertebrates

The origin of terrestrial tetrapods was a key event in vertebrate evolution, yet how and when it occurred remains obscure, due to scarce fossil evidence. Here, we show that the study of palaeopathologies, such as broken and healed bones, can help elucidate poorly understood behavioural transitions such as this. Using high-resolution finite element analysis, we demonstrate that the oldest known broken tetrapod bone, a radius of the primitive stem tetrapod Ossinodus pueri from the mid-Viséan (333 million years ago) of Australia, fractured under a high-force, impact-type loading scenario. The nature of the fracture suggests that it most plausibly occurred during a fall on land. Augmenting this are new osteological observations, including a preferred directionality to the trabecular architecture of cancellous bone. Together, these results suggest that Ossinodus, one of the first large (>2m length) tetrapods, spent a significant proportion of its life on land. Our findings have important implications for understanding the temporal, biogeographical and physiological contexts under which terrestriality in vertebrates evolved. They push the date for the origin of terrestrial tetrapods further back into the Carboniferous by at least two million years. Moreover, they raise the possibility that terrestriality in vertebrates first evolved in large tetrapods in Gondwana rather than in small European forms, warranting a re-evaluation of this important evolutionary event.

Consistent responses of soil microbial communities to elevated nutrient inputs in grasslands across the globe

Soil microorganisms are critical to ecosystem functioning and the maintenance of soil fertility. However, despite global increases in the inputs of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to ecosystems due to human activities, we lack a predictive understanding of how microbial communities respond to elevated nutrient inputs across environmental gradients. Here we used high-throughput sequencing of marker genes to elucidate the responses of soil fungal, archaeal, and bacterial communities using an N and P addition experiment replicated at 25 globally distributed grassland sites. We also sequenced metagenomes from a subset of the sites to determine how the functional attributes of bacterial communities change in response to elevated nutrients. Despite strong compositional differences across sites, microbial communities shifted in a consistent manner with N or P additions, and the magnitude of these shifts was related to the magnitude of plant community responses to nutrient inputs. Mycorrhizal fungi and methanogenic archaea decreased in relative abundance with nutrient additions, as did the relative abundances of oligotrophic bacterial taxa. The metagenomic data provided additional evidence for this shift in bacterial life history strategies because nutrient additions decreased the average genome sizes of the bacterial community members and elicited changes in the relative abundances of representative functional genes. Our results suggest that elevated N and P inputs lead to predictable shifts in the taxonomic and functional traits of soil microbial communities, including increases in the relative abundances of faster-growing, copiotrophic bacterial taxa, with these shifts likely to impact belowground ecosystems worldwide.

Wikipedia, collective authorship, and the politics of knowledge

This chapter considers the legal ramifications of Wikipedia, and other online media, such as the Encyclopedia of Life. Nathaniel Tkacz (2007) has observed: 'Wikipedia is an ideal entry-point from which to approach the shifting character of knowledge in contemporary society.' He observes: 'Scholarship on Wikipedia from computer science, history, philosophy, pedagogy and media studies has moved beyond speculation regarding its considerable potential, to the task of interpreting - and potentially intervening in - the significance of Wikipedia's impact' (Tkacz 2007). After an introduction, Part II considers the evolution and development of Wikipedia, and the legal troubles that have attended it. It also considers the establishment of rival online encyclopedia - such as Citizendium set up by Larry Sanger, the co-founder of Wikipedia; and Knol, the mysterious new project of Google. Part III explores the use of mass, collaborative authorship in the field of science. In particular, it looks at the development of the Encyclopedia of Life, which seeks to document the world's biodiversity. This chapter expresses concern that Wiki-based software had to develop in a largely hostile and inimical legal environment. It contends that copyright law and related fields of intellectual property need to be reformed in order better to accommodate users of copyright material (Rimmer 2007). This chapter makes a number of recommendations. First, there is a need to acknowledge and recognize forms of mass, collaborative production and consumption - not just individual authorship. Second, the view of a copyright 'work' and other subject matter as a complete and closed piece of cultural production also should be reconceptualised. Third, the defense of fair use should be expanded to accommodate a wide range of amateur, peer-to-peer production activities - not only in the United States, but in other jurisdictions as well. Fourth, the safe harbor protections accorded to Internet intermediaries, such as Wikipedia, should be strengthened. Fifth, there should be a defense in respect of the use of 'orphan works' - especially in cases of large-scale digitization. Sixth, the innovations of open source licensing should be expressly incorporated and entrenched within the formal framework of copyright laws. Finally, courts should craft judicial remedies to take into account concerns about political censorship and freedom of speech.

Bayesian parametric bootstrap for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper it is demonstrated how the Bayesian parametric bootstrap can be adapted to models with intractable likelihoods. The approach is most appealing when the semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) summary statistics are selected. After a pilot run of ABC, the likelihood-free parametric bootstrap approach requires very few model simulations to produce an approximate posterior, which can be a useful approximation in its own right. An alternative is to use this approximation as a proposal distribution in ABC algorithms to make them more efficient. In this paper, the parametric bootstrap approximation is used to form the initial importance distribution for the sequential Monte Carlo and the ABC importance and rejection sampling algorithms. The new approach is illustrated through a simulation study of the univariate g-and- k quantile distribution, and is used to infer parameter values of a stochastic model describing expanding melanoma cell colonies.

Pathway to high throughput, low cost indium-free transparent electrodes

A roll-to-roll compatible, high throughput process is reported for the production of highly conductive, transparent planar electrode comprising an interwoven network of silver nanowires and single walled carbon nanotubes imbedded into poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):polystyrene sulfonate (PEDOT:PSS). The planar electrode has a sheet resistance of between 4 and 7 Ω □−1 and a transmission of >86% between 800 and 400 nm with a figure of merit of between 344 and 400 Ω−1. The nanocomposite electrode is highly flexible and retains a low sheet resistance after bending at a radius of 5 mm for up to 500 times without loss. Organic photovoltaic devices containing the planar nanocomposite electrodes had efficiencies of ∼90% of control devices that used indium tin oxide as the transparent conducting electrode.

Examining signs of driver sleepiness, usage of sleepiness countermeasures and the associations with sleepy driving behaviours and individual factors

The impairing effect from sleepiness is a major contributor to road crashes. The ability of a sleepy driver to perceive their level of sleepiness is an important consideration for road safety as well as the type of sleepiness countermeasure used by drivers as some sleepiness countermeasures are more effective than others. The aims of the current study were to determine the extent that the signs of driver sleepiness were associated with sleepy driving behaviours, as well as determining which individual factors (demographic, work, driving, and sleep-related factors) were associated with using a roadside or in-vehicle sleepiness countermeasure. A sample of 1518 Australian drivers from the Australian State of New South Wales and the neighbouring Australian Capital Territory took part in the study. The participants’ experiences with the signs of sleepiness were reasonably extensive. A number of the early signs of sleepiness (e.g., yawning, frequent eye blinks) were related with continuing to drive while sleepy, with the more advanced signs of sleepiness (e.g., difficulty keeping eyes open, dreamlike state of consciousness) associated with having a sleep-related close call. The individual factors associated with using a roadside sleepiness countermeasure included age (being older), education (tertiary level), difficulties getting to sleep, not continuing to drive while sleepy, and having experienced many signs of sleepiness. The results suggest that these participants have a reasonable awareness and experience with the signs of driver sleepiness. Factors related to previous experiences with sleepiness were associated with implementing a roadside countermeasure. Nonetheless, the high proportions of drivers performing sleepy driving behaviours, suggest that concerted efforts are needed with road safety campaigns regarding the dangers of driving while sleepy.

Cough and reflux esophagitis in children: their co-existence and airway cellularity

Background There are no prospective studies that have examined for chronic cough in children without lung disease but with gastroesophageal reflux (GER). In otherwise healthy children undergoing flexible upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (esophago-gastroscopy), the aims of the study were to (1) define the frequency of cough in relation to symptoms of GER, (2) examine if children with cough and reflux esophagitis (RE) have different airway cellularity and microbiology in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) when compared to those without. Methods Data specific for chronic cough (>4-weeks), symptoms of GER and cough severity were collected. Children aged <16-years (n = 150) were defined as 'coughers' (C+) if a history of cough in association with their GER symptoms was elicited before BAL were obtained during elective esophago-gastroscopy. Presence of esophagitis on esophageal biopsies was considered reflux esophagitis positive (E+). Results C+ (n = 69) were just as likely as C- (n = 81) to have esophagitis, odds ratio 0.87 (95%CI 0.46, 1.7). Median neutrophil percentage in BAL was significantly different between groups; highest in C+E- (7, IQR 28) and lowest in C-E+ (5, IQR 6). BAL positive bacterial culture occurred in 20.7% and were more likely present in current coughers (OR 3.37, 95%CI 1.39, 8.08). Airway neutrophilia (median 20%, IQR 34) was significantly higher in those with BAL positive bacterial cultures than those without (5%, 4; p = 0.0001). Conclusion In children without lung disease, the common co-existence of cough with symptoms of GER is independent of the occurrence of esophagitis. Airway neutrophilia when present in these children is more likely to be related to airway bacterial infection and not to esophagitis.