Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

The transformation of bureaucracy? Structural change in the Commonwealth public service 1983-93

Commentators have predicted bureaucratic organisations would undergo substantial change as a result of social and economic pressures. We ask whether reforms to the Australian public service over the 1983–93 period exemplify this process. We use the methods of organisational analysis to characterise the direction of change, basing our assessment on the standard structural variables of complexity, formalisation and centralisation, together with a cultural variable. We find evidence that, overall, departments of state in the APS were becoming less bureaucratic in their structure, culture and internal function in the 1983–93 period. However, the effect was not uniform across departments, or unambiguous — formalisation, for example, increased in some respects and decreased in others. Centralisation increased overall, despite devolution of some decision-making.

The outsourcing of accounting services and the subsequent accounting education implications

This paper examines the outsourcing of accounting services by Australian accounting firms. It considers what, if any, impact the outsourcing of accounting services may have on accounting graduates if entry level tasks normally completed by graduates are sent to offshore processing centres. This paper categorises the most important prerequisite skills requirements of new junior employees identified by accounting firms in Australia.

Gentrification and the artistic dividend : the role of the arts in neighborhood change

Problem, research strategy, and findings: There is a conflict between recent creative placemaking policies intended to promote positive neighborhood development through the arts and the fact that the arts have long been cited as contributing to gentrification and the displacement of lower-income residents. Unfortunately, we do not have data to demonstrate widespread evidence of either outcome. We address the dearth of comprehensive research and inform neighborhood planning efforts by statistically testing how two different groups of arts activities—the fine arts and commercial arts industries—are associated with conditions indicative of revitalization and gentrification in 100 large U.S. metropolitan areas. We find that different arts activities are associated with different types and levels of neighborhood change. Commercial arts industries show the strongest association with gentrification in rapidly changing areas, while the fine arts are associated with stable, slow-growth neighborhoods. Takeaway for practice: This research can help planners to more effectively incorporate the arts into neighborhood planning efforts and to anticipate the potential for different outcomes in their arts development strategies, including gentrification-related displacement.

Corporate sustainability reporting for water : water footprint, global reporting initiative and the water accounting framework

Three initiatives with respect to water reporting in the mining sector are compared in this paper to understand the quantities that are asked for by each initiative and the guidelines of those initiatives through means of a case study. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) was chosen because it has achieved widespread acceptance amongst mining companies and its water-related indicators are widely reported in corporate sustainability reporting. In contrast, the Water Footprint Network, which has been an important initiative in food and agricultural industries, has had low acceptance in the mining industry. The third initiative is the Water Accounting Framework, a collaboration between The Minerals Council of Australia and the Sustainable Minerals Institute of the University of Queensland. A water account had previously been created according to the Water Accounting Framework for the case study site, an open pit coal mine in the Bowen Basin. The resulting account provided consistent data for the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and the Water Footprint attributable to mining but in particular, a deficiency in the GRI indicator of EN10 reuse and recycling efficiency was illustrated quantitatively. This has far-reaching significance due to the widespread use of GRI indicators in mining corporate reports.

Longitudinal change in sleep and daytime sleepiness in postpartum women

Sleep disruption strongly influences daytime functioning; resultant sleepiness is recognised as a contributing risk-factor for individuals performing critical and dangerous tasks. While the relationship between sleep and sleepiness has been heavily investigated in the vulnerable sub-populations of shift workers and patients with sleep disorders, postpartum women have been comparatively overlooked. Thirty-three healthy, postpartum women recorded every episode of sleep and wake each day during postpartum weeks 6, 12 and 18. Although repeated measures analysis revealed there was no significant difference in the amount of nocturnal sleep and frequency of night-time wakings, there was a significant reduction in sleep disruption, due to fewer minutes of wake after sleep onset. Subjective sleepiness was measured each day using the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale; at the two earlier time points this was significantly correlated with sleep quality but not to sleep quantity. Epworth Sleepiness Scores significantly reduced over time; however, during week 18 over 50% of participants were still experiencing excessive daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Score ≥12). Results have implications for health care providers and policy makers. Health care providers designing interventions to address sleepiness in new mothers should take into account the dynamic changes to sleep and sleepiness during this initial postpartum period. Policy makers developing regulations for parental leave entitlements should take into consideration the high prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness experienced by new mothers, ensuring enough opportunity for daytime sleepiness to diminish to a manageable level prior to reengagement in the workforce.

A robust methodological approach for mine site water accounting

Over the past decade, the mining industry has come to recognise the importance of water both to itself and to others. Water accounting is a formalisation of this importance that quantifies and communicates how water is used by individual sites and the industry as a whole. While there are a number of different accounting frameworks that could be used within the industry, the Minerals Council of Australia’s (MCA) Water Accounting Framework (WAF) is an industry-led approach that provides a consistent representation of mine site water interactions regardless of their operational, social or environmental context that allows for valid comparisons between sites and companies. The WAF contains definitions of offsite water sources and destinations and onsite water use, a methodology for applying the definitions and a set of metrics to measure site performance. The WAF is comprised of two models: the Input-Output Model, which represents the interactions between sites and their surrounding community and the Operational Model, which represents onsite water interactions. Members of the MCA have recently adopted the WAF’s Input-Output Model to report on their external water interactions in their Australian operations with some adopting it on a global basis. To support this adoption, there is a need for companies to better understand how to implement the WAF in their own operations. Developing a water account is non-trivial, particularly for sites unfamiliar with the WAF or for sites with the need to represent unusual features. This work describes how to build a water account for a given site using the Input-Output Model with an emphasis on how to represent challenging situations.

Design innovation catalyst tools to facilitate organisational change

Organisations have recently looked to design to become more customer oriented and co-create a new kind of value and service offering. This requires changes in the organisation mindset, involving the entire company, innovation processes and often its business model. One tool that has been successful in facilitating this has been Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010) ‘Business Model Canvas’ and more importantly the design process that supports the use of this tool. The aim of this paper is to explore the role design tools play in the translation and facilitation process of innovation in firms. Six ‘Design Innovation Catalysts’ (Wrigley, 2013) were interviewed in regards to their approach and use of design tools in order to better facilitate innovation. Results highlight the value of tools expands beyond their intended use to include; facilitation of communicating, permission to think creatively, and learning and teaching through visualisation. Findings from this research build upon the role of the Design Innovation Catalyst and provide additional implications for organisations.

Alignment and differences between the Australian Water Accounting Standard and the Water Accounting Framework for the Minerals Industry

In 2012, the Bureau of Meteorology under the banner of the Water Accounting Standards Board released the Australian Water Accounting Standard 1 (AWAS 1). This standard has been in development since 2007 with key milestones being the release of the Preliminary Australian Water Accounting Standard in 2009, and the exposure draft of the Australian Water Accounting Standard in 2010. Throughout this period, the Minerals Council of Australia’s Water Accounting Framework has developed concurrently with the Australian standards and the standards have informed elements of the framework. However, the framework is not identical to the standard as the objectives between the two are different. The objective of the Water Accounting Framework is to create consistency in water reporting of the minerals industry and to assist companies reporting to corporate sustainability initiatives. The objective of AWAS 1 is to provide information to water management bodies to facilitate decisions about the allocation of water resources. Companies are to report on an annual basis, not only physical flows of water but contractual requirements to supply and obtain water, regardless of whether the transaction has been fulfilled in the reporting period. In contrast, the Water Accounting Framework only reports on flows that have physically happened. The paper will provide summary information on aspects of AWAS 1 that are most relevant to the minerals industry, show the alignment and differences between AWAS 1 and the Water Accounting Framework and explain how to obtain the information for the AWAS 1 reporting statements.

Water reporting using the water accounting framework

Water reporting is becoming increasingly common amongst minerals companies. The Minerals Council of Australia’s (MCA) Water Accounting Framework (WAF), co-developed by the Centre for Water in the Minerals Industry (CWiMI), provides a standard set of terms for water reporting. The WAF was established due to the need of the minerals industry to report on its water management consistently, rather than report using company-specific terms which can cause confusion and makes company comparisons impossible. The WAF consists of two models: The Input-Output Model, which represents interactions between a site and its surrounding community and environment, and the Operational Model, which represents the interactions within a site.

Climate variability, climate change and land degradation

Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

Facebook Versus Ghaddafi : social networking as a tool for democratic change in Libya

The emergence of the Internet is one of the most significant leaps in the history of humanity. Information, knowledge and culture are exchanged among masses of people through interconnected information platforms. These platforms enable our culture to be analysed and rewritten, and fundamentally opens our perceptions to a wide variety of concepts and beliefs. The connected networks of the Internet have shaped a virtual — but communicative — space where people can cross borders freely within a realm characterised by the ability to go anywhere, see anything, learn, compare and understand. This chapter focuses on the Libyan experience with social networking platforms in actualising democratic change in the uprising of 17 February 2011. After briefly outlining the political and economic situation under the regime of Colonel Mummar Ghaddafi, the chapter discusses the role that social networking platforms played during the struggle of the Libyan people for democratic change. Finally, it points out the positive changes that resulted from the uprising and the potential role that social media might play in the ongoing democratization and development of Libyan society.

Public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation: A choice experiment using ecosystem services indicators

Potential conflicts exist between biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation as trade-offs in multiple-use land management. This study aims to evaluate public preferences for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation policy considering respondents’ uncertainty on their choice. We conducted a choice experiment using land-use scenarios in the rural Kushiro watershed in northern Japan. The results showed that the public strongly wish to avoid the extinction of endangered species in preference to climate-change mitigation in the form of carbon sequestration by increasing the area of managed forest. Knowledge of the site and the respondents’ awareness of the personal benefits associated with supporting and regulating services had a positive effect on their preference for conservation plans. Thus, decision-makers should be careful about how they provide ecological information for informed choices concerning ecosystem services tradeoffs. Suggesting targets with explicit indicators will affect public preferences, as well as the willingness of the public to pay for such measures. Furthermore, the elicited-choice probabilities approach is useful for revealing the distribution of relative preferences for incomplete scenarios, thus verifying the effectiveness of indicators introduced in the experiment.