Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

The respiratory health of urban Indigenous children aged less than 5 years: Study protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Despite the burden of acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children being a substantial cause of childhood morbidity and associated costs to families, communities and the health system, data on disease burden in urban children are lacking. Consequently evidence-based decision-making, data management guidelines, health resourcing for primary health care services and prevention strategies are lacking. This study aims to comprehensively describe the epidemiology, impact and outcomes of ARI in urban Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (hereafter referred to as Indigenous) in the greater Brisbane area. Methods/design A prospective cohort study of Indigenous children aged less than five years registered with a primary health care service in Northern Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Children are recruited at time of presentation to the service for any reason. Demographic, epidemiological, risk factor, microbiological, economic and clinical data are collected at enrolment. Enrolled children are followed for 12 months during which time ARI events, changes in child characteristics over time and monthly nasal swabs are collected. Children who develop an ARI with cough as a symptom during the study period are more intensely followed-up for 28(±3) days including weekly nasal swabs and parent completed cough diary cards. Children with persistent cough at day 28 post-ARI are reviewed by a paediatrician. Discussion Our study will be one of the first to comprehensively evaluate the natural history, epidemiology, aetiology, economic impact and outcomes of ARIs in this population. The results will inform studies for the development of evidence-based guidelines to improve the early detection, prevention and management of chronic cough and setting of priorities in children during and after ARI.

Looking back to look forwards: Expanding the sociology of education

As we write these lines, sociology celebrates 50 years of the French publication of the book ‘The Inheritors’, written by Bourdieu and Passeron in 1964. This ‘classic’ was followed by a series of works in the sociology of education (mainly published in England, France and the United States) devoted to the inequalities inherent within disparate projects revolving around school democratisation . From the 1960s to the mid-1970s, if the paradigms of educational sociologists do not all inscribe to that of critical sociology , several common factors are involved in researchers’ overarching lines of enquiry: the development of statistical data on schools, conferences and publication of reports on education (see Coleman, 1966 in the United States; Plowden, 1967 in the United Kingdom), and the structuration of school policies around democratisation underlying theories of human capital and the dependence of the school vis-à-vis the labour market, and the stratification and socio-economic organisation of societies.

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

Motorcyclist hazard perception research: The last 10 years

Motorcycle trauma is a serious issue in Queensland and throughout Australia; the fatality rate per 100 million kilometres travelled for motorcycle riders in Australia is nearly 30 times the rate for drivers of other vehicles (Australian Transport Safety Bureau, 2002). In 2009, the then Queensland Transport (later the Department of Transport and Main Roads or TMR) appointed CARRS-Q to provide a three-year program of Road Safety Research Services for Motorcycle Rider Safety. Funding for this research originated from the Motor Accident Insurance Commission who had the uncommon foresight to fund such a comprehensive program of research.

The structures of the isomorphous potassium and rubidium salts of 4-nitrobenzoic acid and an overview of the metal complex stereochemistries of the alkali metal salt series with this ligand

The structures of the isomorphous potassium and rubidium polymeric coordination complexes with 4-nitrobenzoic acid, poly[mu2-aqua-aqua-mu3-(4-nitrobenzoato)-potassium], [K(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, (I) and poly[mu3-aqua-aqua-mu5-(4-nitrobenzoato)-rubidium], [Rb(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, (II) have been determined. In (I) the very distorted KO6 coordination sphere about the K+ centres in the repeat unit comprise two bridging nitro O-atom donors, a single bridging carboxyl O-atom donor and two water molecules, one of which is bridging. In the the Rb complex (II), the same basic MO6 coordination is found in the repeat unit but is expanded to RbO9 through a slight increase in the accepted Rb-O bond length range and includes an additional Rb-O(carboxyl) bond, completing a bidentate O,O'-chelate interaction, and additional bridging Rb-Onitro) and Rb-O(water) bonds. The comparative K-O and Rb-O bond length ranges are 2.738(3)-3.002(3)Ang. (I) and 2.884(2)-3.182(2)Ang. (II). The structure of (II) is also isomorphous as well as isostructural with the known structure of the nine-coordinate caesium 4-nitrobenzoate analogue, [Cs(C7H4N2O~2~)(H~2~O)2]n, (III) in which the Cs---O range is 3.047(4)-3.338(4)Ang. In all three complexes, common basic polymeric extensions are found, including two different centrosymmetric bridging interactions through both water and nitro groups as well as extensions along c through the p-related carboxyl group, giving a two-dimensional structure in (I). In (II) and (III), three-dimensional structures are generated through additional bridges through the nitro and water O-atoms. In all structures, both water molecules are involved in similar intra-polymer O-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions to both carboxyl as well as water O-atom acceptors. A comparison of the varied coordination behaviour of the full set of Li-Cs salts with 4-nitrobenzoic acid is also made.

Continuity and change in family engagement in home learning activities across the early years

This research utilised data from The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children and explored continuity and change in parental engagement in home learning activities with young children. The findings indicated a decrease over time in parental engagement with children, from age to 2-3 years to 6-7 years. Rate of decrease impacted negatively on learning outcomes for language and literacy, and mathematical thinking, in the early years of school, when children were aged 6-7 years. Shared reading with children and interactions around everyday home activities and play, in which children and parents participate together, impact on children's later development.

The Times They Are A Changin': The Effect of Institutional Change on Cooperative Behaviour at 26,000ft over Sixty Years

In 2006, Sir Edmund Hillary lambasted the modern climbing fraternity for abandoning other climbers to a slow frozen death on Everest, claiming that in his day they would never leave someone to die. This followed the controversial death of David Sharp, passed by an estimated 40 climbers who were more interested in the summit than the life of a fellow human being. But was this stinging criticism true or just the faded recollections of a former climbing giant? This book investigates that claim through a narrative analysis, which combines the empirical analysis of Hawley and Salisbury's Himalayan Expedition Database with the anecdotal evidence provided by a plethora of newspaper articles and books. While there is evidence supporting the claim that commercialization is to blame for the breakdown of pro-social behaviour, the results cannot conclude if it is the commercial climber or the operator driving the problem and that the Sherpa are the saving grace.

Where is spatial information and science in your world?

Skills in spatial sciences are fundamental to understanding our world in context. Increasing digital presence and the availability of data with accurate spatial components has allowed almost everything researchers and students do to be represented in a spatial context. Representing outcomes and disseminating information has moved from 2D to 4D with time series animation. In the next 5 years industry will not only demand QUT graduates have spatial skills along with analytical skills, graduates will be required to present their findings in spatial visualizations that show spatial, spectral and temporal contexts. Domains such as engineering and science will no longer be the leaders in spatial skills as social sciences, health, arts and the business community gain momentum from place-based research including human interactions. A university that can offer students a pathway to advanced spatial investigation will be ahead of the game.

Skilling up for a low-carbon future: Vocational education and training

Given the need for both short and long-term training for sustainability discussed in the first of this three-part series (ECOS 158, pp 22–24), it is clear that the vocational education and training sector will play a major role in building capacity for our nation over the next five years.

Local experiences, global similarities: Teacher perceptions of the impacts of national testing

Since 2008, Australian schoolchildren in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 have sat a series of tests each May designed to assess their attainment of basic skills in literacy and numeracy. These tests are known as the National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN). In 2010, individual school NAPLAN data were first published on the MySchool website which enables comparisons to be made between individual schools and statistically like schools across Australia. NAPLAN represents the increased centrality of the federal government in education, particularly in regards to education policy. One effect of this has been a recast emphasis of education as an economic, rather than democratic, good. As Reid (2009) suggests, this recasting of education within national productivity agendas mobilises commonsense discourses of accountability and transparency. These are common articles of faith for many involved in education administration and bureaucracy; more and better data, and holding people to account for that data, must improve education...

Doing something about it: Representations of NAPLAN in the public domain

Since 2008 all Australian school students have sat standardised tests in Reading, Writing, Language Conventions (Spelling, Grammar and Punctuation) and Numeracy in years 3,5,7 and 9. NAPLAN tests report individual students' attainment of skills against a set of standards. Individual student results are communicated to parents. Schools are then ranked against other schools depending upon the aggregate of their NAPLAN results. The process is explained to parents and community members as “improving the learning outcomes for all Australian students” (MCEETYA, 2009). This paper will examine NAPLAN as it is being played out in a mediated space through analysing unsolicited comment found in new media such as Twitter and online forums. NAPLAN intersects with contemporary debates about Australian education policy: the roles schools should play in improving national productivity, the relationship between state and federal government interest in education, the role and expectations of the teacher, what curriculum and pedagogy should be and look like and how limited financial resources can best be spread across education sectors and systems. These are not new considerations, however, what has changed is that education policy seems to have become even more of a political issue than it has before. This paper uses Ball's 'toolkit' approach to education policy analysis to suggest that there are multiple 'effects' of NAPLAN culminating in a series of disconnected conversations between various stakeholders.

The relationship between number of fruits, vegetables, and noncore foods tried at age 14 months and food preferences, dietary intake patterns, fussy eating behavior, and weight status at age 3.7 years

Objective We examined whether exposure to a greater number of fruits, vegetables, and noncore foods (ie, nutrient poor and high in saturated fats, added sugars, or added salt) at age 14 months was related to children’s preference for and intake of these foods as well as maternal-reported food fussiness and measured child weight status at age 3.7 years. Methods This study reports secondary analyses of longitudinal data from mothers and children (n=340) participating in the NOURISH randomized controlled trial. Exposure was quantified as the number of food items (n=55) tried by a child from specified lists at age 14 months. At age 3.7 years, food preferences, intake patterns, and fussiness (also at age 14 months) were assessed using maternal-completed, established questionnaires. Child weight and length/height were measured by study staff at both age points. Multivariable linear regression models were tested to predict food preferences, intake patterns, fussy eating, and body mass index z score at age 3.7 years adjusting for a range of maternal and child covariates. Results Having tried a greater number of vegetables, fruits, and noncore foods at age 14 months predicted corresponding preferences and higher intakes at age 3.7 years but did not predict child body mass index z score. Adjusting for fussiness at age 14 months, having tried more vegetables at age 14 months was associated with lower fussiness at age 3.7 years. Conclusions These prospective analyses support the hypothesis that early taste and texture experiences influence subsequent food preferences and acceptance. These findings indicate introduction to a variety of fruits and vegetables and limited noncore food exposure from an early age are important strategies to improve later diet quality.

R2P ten years after the World Summit: Explaining ongoing contestation over Pillar III

This article examines how and why contrasting interpretations of the international community’s role in preventing and responding to mass atrocity crimes continue to exist a decade after the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) was unanimously endorsed at the 2005 World Summit. Building on recent critical constructivist insights into the fluid, dynamic nature of norms, it advances two main arguments. The first is that continuing contestation over R2P’s third pillar is a product of a combination of internal and external sources of norm dynamism. R2P’s inherently complex normative structure, coupled with several external factors, including the broader normative environment, norm implementation experiences and a shift in global power towards the BRICS, have contributed to a period of renewed contestation and triggered attempts to re-formulate R2P thorough Brazil’s ‘Responsibility while Protecting’ (RwP) proposal and China’s semi-official ‘Responsible Protection’ concept. The second central argument is that such contestation is affecting R2P’s distinct normative prescriptions in different ways. While resistance to the implementation of coercive pillar III measures is currently impeding the normative progress of that component of the norm, this contestation has not prevented consensual pillar II assistance from becoming more deeply embedded in international practice and discourse.

Early mathematical learning: Number processing skills and executive function at 5 and 8 years of age

This research investigated differences and associations in performance in number processing and executive function for children attending primary school in a large Australian metropolitan city. In a cross-sectional study, performance of 25 children in the first full-time year of school, (Prep; mean age = 5.5 years) and 21 children in Year 3 (mean age = 8.5 years) completed three number processing tasks and three executive function tasks. Year 3 children consistently outperformed the Prep year children on measures of accuracy and reaction time, on the tasks of number comparison, calculation, shifting, and inhibition but not on number line estimation. The components of executive function (shifting, inhibition, and working memory) showed different patterns of correlation to performance on number processing tasks across the early years of school. Findings could be used to enhance teachers’ understanding about the role of the cognitive processes employed by children in numeracy learning, and so inform teachers’ classroom practices.