A sequential Monte Carlo approach to the sequential design for discriminating between rival continuous data models

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

A human-simulated immune evolutionary computation approach

Premature convergence to local optimal solutions is one of the main difficulties when using evolutionary algorithms in real-world optimization problems. To prevent premature convergence and degeneration phenomenon, this paper proposes a new optimization computation approach, human-simulated immune evolutionary algorithm (HSIEA). Considering that the premature convergence problem is due to the lack of diversity in the population, the HSIEA employs the clonal selection principle of artificial immune system theory to preserve the diversity of solutions for the search process. Mathematical descriptions and procedures of the HSIEA are given, and four new evolutionary operators are formulated which are clone, variation, recombination, and selection. Two benchmark optimization functions are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed HSIEA.

Teaching design and emotion in the foundation year : an industrial design approach

This paper showcases two design tools; the ‘storyboard’ and ‘a day in the life’ demonstrated to design students in their foundational year (first year) of study. By employing these tools during the design process the aim was to provoke students to consider and design for emotional experiences for potential users. The assessment asked students to design an MP3 player using these tools. This is demonstrated through a student project that successfully used the tools and method introduced. The teaching theory, project context, student outcome as well as challenges faced by students using this approach are discussed. The paper concludes with implications for teaching emotion theory at an undergraduate level and potential future directions.

Effective planning approach to interconnect bulk quantities of wind generation

Over the past few years, the Midwest ISO has experienced a surge in requests to interconnect large amounts of wind generation, driven largely by a favorable political environment and an abundant wind resource in the Midwestern US. This tremendous influx of proposed generators along with a highly constrained transmission system adversely impacted interconnection queue processing, resulting in an unmanageable backlog. Under these circumstances, Midwest ISO successfully reformed the interconnection tariff to improve cycle times and provide increased certainty to interconnection customers. One of the key features of the reformed queue process is the System Planning and Analysis (SPA) phase which allows integration of the interconnection studies with regional transmission planning. This paper presents a brief background of the queue reform effort and then delves deeply in to the work performed at the Midwest ISO during the first SPA cycle - the study approach, the challenges faced in having to study over 50,000 MWs of wind generation and the effective solutions designed to complete these studies within tariff timelines.

A left realist approach to antifeminist fathers’ rights groups

Despite earlier critiques of left realists’ failure to adequately address feminist concerns, recent left realist theorizing and empirical research have made valuable contributions to the understanding of woman abuse and other forms of gendered violence. Left realism has further potential to contribute to the criminological understanding of woman abuse and its contributing socioeconomic and cultural contexts. This article describes left realists’ early efforts to include gender in analyses of crime. It then summarizes feminist critiques of left realism and reviews the work that has responded to them. Drawing upon two prominent strands of feminist left realist theorizing about violence and gender, the paper proposes a preliminary left realist theory of antifeminist fathers’ rights group activism. It then outlines a provisional research agenda on antifeminist fathers’ rights groups, and proposes short and long term policies and practices to enhance the safety of abused mothers and their children following divorce or separation.

Using a design led approach to emotional business modelling

Prototyping is an established and accepted practice used by the design community. Prototypes play a valuable role during the design process and can greatly affect the designed outcome. The concept of a business model prototype, however, is not well understood by the design and business communities. Design industry trends indicate a move away from product and service innovation towards business model innovation. Therefore, it stands to reason that the role of prototypes and prototyping in this context should also be considered. This paper is conceptual and presents a process for creating and enabling business model prototypes. Specifically, the focus is on building emotional connections across the value chain to enable internal growth within firms. To do this, the authors‟ have relied on personal observations and critical reflection from multiple industry engagements. The outcomes of this critical reflective practice are presented and the opportunities and challenges for this approach are discussed. Future research opportunities are also detailed and presented within the context of the emotional business model.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for TIA

Transport Impact Assessment (TIA) -Generally a short range transport planning activity -Assess transport impacts of new developments or expansions -Present solutions to mitigate impacts Problems with TIA Process -Private vehicles focus (i.e. Veh Trip Ends) -Proxy variables (e.g. 100sqm GFA) -Trip generation rates (e.g. VTE/proxy) -Little info/guidance on trip chaining effects -Little info/guidance on non-PV modes Requires significant professional judgment

An expanded critical incident approach for exploring information use and learning

Critical incidents offer a focus for exploratory research about human experiences, including information use and information literacy learning. This paper describes how critical incidents underpinned research about international students’ use of online information resources at two Australian universities. It outlines the development and application of an expanded critical incident approach (ECIA), explaining how ECIA built upon critical incident technique (CIT) and incorporated information literacy theory. It discusses points of expansion (differences) between CIT and ECIA. While CIT initially proved useful in structuring the research, the pilot study revealed methodological limitations. ECIA allowed more nuanced data analysis and the integration of reflection. The study produced a multifaceted word picture of international students’ experience of using online information resources to learn, and a set of critical findings about their information literacy learning needs. ECIA offers a fresh approach for researching information use, information experience, evidence-based practice, information literacy and informed learning.

An integrated approach to professional development in secondary schools

Following the implementation of the National Professional Standards for Teachers, all teachers in Australia will be required to undertake 30 hours per year of professional development (PD) to maintain their registration. However, defining what constitutes effective PD is complex and often contested. This paper looks at a case study in Queensland, Australia, where a high school worked collaboratively with a university lecturer to deliver effective whole-school professional development. The lecturer acted as an external change agent, working closely with the principal and staff to build a relationship of trust and to develop a strategy for the delivery of PD on-site. This case highlights how partnerships between teachers and teacher educators combined with a willing school leader can provide positive opportunities for collaborative, sustainable, professional growth and learning.

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

A portable approach for the surveillance of dengue virus-infected mosquitoes

Dengue virus is the most significant human viral pathogen spread by the bite of an infected mosquito. With no vaccine or antiviral therapy currently available, disease prevention relies largely on surveillance and mosquito control. Preventing the onset of dengue outbreaks and effective vector management would be considerably enhanced through surveillance of dengue virus prevalence in natural mosquito populations. However, current approaches to the identification of virus in field-caught mosquitoes require relatively slow and labor intensive techniques such as virus isolation or RT-PCR involving specialized facilities and personnel. A rapid and portable method for detecting dengue virus-infected mosquitoes is described. Using a hand held battery operated homogenizer and a dengue diagnostic rapid strip the viral protein NS1 was detected as a marker of dengue virus infection. This method could be performed in less than 30 min in the field, requiring no downstream processing, and is able to detect a single infected mosquito in a pool of at least 50 uninfected mosquitoes. The method described in this study allows rapid, real-time monitoring of dengue virus presence in mosquito populations and could be a useful addition to effective monitoring and vector control responses.

A dual-scale modelling approach for drying hygroscopic porous media

A new dualscale modelling approach is presented for simulating the drying of a wet hygroscopic porous material that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of wood at low temperatures and is valid in the so-called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradients of moisture content and temperature on the microscopic field using suitably-defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic mass and thermal fluxes to be defined as averages of the microscopic fluxes over the unit cell. This novel formulation accounts for the intricate coupling of heat and mass transfer at the microscopic scale but reduces to a classical homogenisation approach if a linear relationship is assumed between the microscopic gradient and flux. Simulation results for a sample of spruce wood highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual-scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to propose the form of the macroscopic fluxes prior to the simulations because these are determined as a direct result of the dual-scale formulation.

Risk-based approach to the management of on-site wastewater treatment facilities

Background On-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS) siting, design and management has traditionally been based on site specific conditions with little regard to the surrounding environment or the cumulative effect of other systems in the environment. The general approach has been to apply the same framework of standards and regulations to all sites equally, regardless of the sensitivity, or lack thereof, to the receiving environment. Consequently, this has led to the continuing poor performance and failure of on-site systems, resulting in environmental and public health consequences. As a result, there is increasing realisation that more scientifically robust evaluations in regard to site assessment and the underlying ground conditions are needed. Risk-based approaches to on-site system siting, design and management are considered the most appropriate means of improvement to the current standards and codes for on-site wastewater treatment systems. The Project Research in relation to this project was undertaken within the Gold Coast City Council region, the major focus being the semi-urban, rural residential and hinterland areas of the city that are not serviced by centralised treatment systems. The Gold Coast has over 15,000 on-site systems in use, with approximately 66% being common septic tank-subsurface dispersal systems. A recent study evaluating the performance of these systems within the Gold Coast area showed approximately 90% were not meeting the specified guidelines for effluent treatment and dispersal. The main focus of this research was to incorporate strong scientific knowledge into an integrated risk assessment process to allow suitable management practices to be set in place to mitigate the inherent risks. To achieve this, research was undertaken focusing on three main aspects involved with the performance and management of OWTS. Firstly, an investigation into the suitability of soil for providing appropriate effluent renovation was conducted. This involved detailed soil investigations, laboratory analysis and the use of multivariate statistical methods for analysing soil information. The outcomes of these investigations were developed into a framework for assessing soil suitability for effluent renovation. This formed the basis for the assessment of OWTS siting and design risks employed in the developed risk framework. Secondly, an assessment of the environmental and public health risks was performed specifically related the release of contaminants from OWTS. This involved detailed groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis to assess the current and potential risks of contamination throughout the Gold Coast region. Additionally, the assessment of public health risk incorporated the use of bacterial source tracking methods to identify the different sources of fecal contamination within monitored regions. Antibiotic resistance pattern analysis was utilised to determine the extent of human faecal contamination, with the outcomes utilised for providing a more indicative public health assessment. Finally, the outcomes of both the soil suitability assessment and ground and surface water monitoring was utilised for the development of the integrated risk framework. The research outcomes achieved through this project enabled the primary research aims and objects to be accomplished. This in turn would enable Gold Coast City Council to provide more appropriate assessment and management guidelines based on robust scientific knowledge which will ultimately ensure that the potential environmental and public health impacts resulting from on-site wastewater treatment is minimised. As part of the implementation of suitable management strategies, a critical point monitoring program (CPM) was formulated. This entailed the identification of the key critical parameters that contribute to the characterised risks at monitored locations within the study area. The CPM will allow more direct procedures to be implemented, targeting the specific hazards at sensitive areas throughout Gold Coast region.

Visual servoing approach to collision avoidance for aircraft

This paper presents a reactive Sense and Avoid approach using spherical image-based visual servoing. Avoidance of point targets in the lateral or vertical plane is achieved without requiring an estimate of range. Simulated results for static and dynamic targets are provided using a realistic model of a small fixed wing unmanned aircraft.

Evaluating stakeholder satisfaction during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects : a fuzzy approach

Numerous different and sometimes discrepant interests can be affected, both positively and negatively, throughout the course of a major infrastructure and construction (MIC) project. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of the stakeholders involved has resulted in many project failures. One way to address this issue is through a participatory approach to project decision making. Whether the participation mechanism is effective or not depends largely on the client/owner. This paper provides a means of systematically evaluating the effectiveness of the public participation exercise, or even the whole project, through the measurement of stakeholder satisfaction. Since the process of satisfaction measurement is complicated and uncertain, requiring approximate reasoning involving human intuition, a fuzzy approach is adopted. From this, a multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to facilitate the evaluation of satisfaction in both single stakeholder group and overall MIC project stakeholders.