735 resultados para Bayesian framework


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Besides responding to challenges of rapid urbanization and growing traffic congestion, the development of smart transport systems has attracted much attention in recent times. Many promising initiatives have emerged over the years. Despite these initiatives, there is still a lack of understanding about an appropriate definition of smart transport system. As such, it is challenging to identify the appropriate indicators of ‘smartness’. This paper proposes a comprehensive and practical framework to benchmark cities according to the smartness in their transportation systems. The proposed methodology was illustrated using a set of data collected from 26 cities across the world through web search and contacting relevant transport authorities and agencies. Results showed that London, Seattle and Sydney were among the world’s top smart transport cities. In particular, Seattle and Paris ranked high in smart private transport services while London and Singapore scored high on public transport services. London also appeared to be the smartest in terms of emergency transport services. The key value of the proposed innovative framework lies in a comparative analysis among cities, facilitating city-to-city learning.

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The Thailand education reform adopted cooperative learning to improve the quality of education. However, it has been reported that the introduction and maintenance of cooperative learning has been difficult and uncertain because of the cultural differences. The study proposed a conceptual framework developed based on making a connection between Thai cultures and cooperative learning elements, and implemented a small-scale research project in a Thai primary mathematics class with a teacher and thirty-two Grade 4 students. The results uncovered that the three components including preparation of teachers, instructional strategies and preparation of students can be vehicles for the culture integration in cooperative learning.

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Discretization of a geographical region is quite common in spatial analysis. There have been few studies into the impact of different geographical scales on the outcome of spatial models for different spatial patterns. This study aims to investigate the impact of spatial scales and spatial smoothing on the outcomes of modelling spatial point-based data. Given a spatial point-based dataset (such as occurrence of a disease), we study the geographical variation of residual disease risk using regular grid cells. The individual disease risk is modelled using a logistic model with the inclusion of spatially unstructured and/or spatially structured random effects. Three spatial smoothness priors for the spatially structured component are employed in modelling, namely an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field, a second-order random walk on a lattice, and a Gaussian field with Matern correlation function. We investigate how changes in grid cell size affect model outcomes under different spatial structures and different smoothness priors for the spatial component. A realistic example (the Humberside data) is analyzed and a simulation study is described. Bayesian computation is carried out using an integrated nested Laplace approximation. The results suggest that the performance and predictive capacity of the spatial models improve as the grid cell size decreases for certain spatial structures. It also appears that different spatial smoothness priors should be applied for different patterns of point data.

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This thesis considers how an information privacy system can and should develop in Libya. Currently, no information privacy system exists in Libya to protect individuals when their data is processed. This research reviews the main features of privacy law in several key jurisdictions in light of Libya's social, cultural, and economic context. The thesis identifies the basic principles that a Libyan privacy law must consider, including issues of scope, exceptions, principles, remedies, penalties, and the establishment of a legitimate data protection authority. This thesis concludes that Libya should adopt a strong information privacy law framework and highlights some of the considerations that will be relevant for the Libyan legislature.

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There is little research on off-road motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle riders though injury levels are high. This thesis identified formal responsibility for monitoring injuries, targeting young male and recreational riders, promotion of family members as models, and controlled and accessible riding locations as ways to increase safety. These recommendations were based on analysis of Queensland hospitalisation records, rider personal reports and survey responses.

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Purpose Most barriers and enablers of sustainable projects are related to procurement. This study proposes a framework for evaluating green procurement practices throughout the lifecycle of road construction projects and demonstrates its application through an Australian case study. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on linking the phases of road construction with incentive mechanisms for proactively motivating behavioural change. A holistic view on utilised and potential incentives is attempted with a literature review and a state-of-practice review. The latter is based on interviews and 90 policy and procurement documents across five Australian states. Findings An evaluation framework with seven procurement stages is suggested to describe current state green procurement incentives throughout the delivery lifecycle of road construction projects. The Australian case study was found to provide useful data to identify gaps and strong points of the different states regarding their level of integration of sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions GHG) reduction elements in their procurement practices. This understanding was used to draw recommendations on future advancement of green procurement. Originality/value: Government entities across the globe can impact considerably the achievement of sustainability and GHG targets, by using their procurement practices and requirements to create incentives for contractors and suppliers to engage in more GHG conscious practices. The present study provides a systematic account of how green procurement practices can be underpinned using the Australian road construction industry as a case study, and distinguish between strong and weak links in the green procurement chain to draw recommendations for future initiatives.

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Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

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This overview article for the special series “Bayesian Networks in Environmental and Resource Management” reviews 7 case study articles with the aim to compare Bayesian network (BN) applications to different environmental and resource management problems from around the world. The article discusses advances in the last decade in the use of BNs as applied to environmental and resource management. We highlight progress in computational methods, best-practices for model design and model communication. We review several research challenges to the use of BNs in environmental and resource management that we think may find a solution in the near future with further research attention.

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The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

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Incorporating a learner’s level of cognitive processing into Learning Analytics presents opportunities for obtaining rich data on the learning process. We propose a framework called COPA that provides a basis for mapping levels of cognitive operation into a learning analytics system. We utilise Bloom’s taxonomy, a theoretically respected conceptualisation of cognitive processing, and apply it in a flexible structure that can be implemented incrementally and with varying degree of complexity within an educational organisation. We outline how the framework is applied, and its key benefits and limitations. Finally, we apply COPA to a University undergraduate unit, and demonstrate its utility in identifying key missing elements in the structure of the course.

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Objective Despite ‘hospital resilience’ gaining prominence in recent years, it remains poorly defined. This article aims to define hospital resilience, build a preliminary conceptual framework and highlight possible approaches to measurement. Methods Searches were conducted of the commonly used health databases to identify relevant literature and reports. Search terms included ‘resilience and framework or model’ or ‘evaluation or assess or measure and hospital and disaster or emergency or mass casualty and resilience or capacity or preparedness or response or safety’. Articles were retrieved that focussed on disaster resilience frameworks and the evaluation of various hospital capacities. Result A total of 1480 potentially eligible publications were retrieved initially but the final analysis was conducted on 47 articles, which appeared to contribute to the study objectives. Four disaster resilience frameworks and 11 evaluation instruments of hospital disaster capacity were included. Discussion and conclusion Hospital resilience is a comprehensive concept derived from existing disaster resilience frameworks. It has four key domains: hospital safety; disaster preparedness and resources; continuity of essential medical services; recovery and adaptation. These domains were categorised according to four criteria, namely, robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness and rapidity. A conceptual understanding of hospital resilience is essential for an intellectual basis for an integrated approach to system development. This article (1) defines hospital resilience; (2) constructs conceptual framework (including key domains); (3) proposes comprehensive measures for possible inclusion in an evaluation instrument, and; (4) develops a matrix of critical issues to enhance hospital resilience to cope with future disasters.

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In this paper, an interactive planning and scheduling framework are proposed for optimising operations from pits to crushers in ore mining industry. Series of theoretical and practical operations research techniques are investigated to improve the overall efficiency of mining systems due to the facts that mining managers need to tackle optimisation problems within different horizons and with different levels of detail. Under this framework, mine design planning,mine production sequencing and mine transportation scheduling models are integrated and interacted within a whole optimisation system. The proposed integrated framework could be used by mining industry for reducing equipment costs, improving the production efficiency and maximising the net present value.