Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Modelling attitudes to climate change : an order effect and a test between alternatives

Quantum-like models can be fruitfully used to model attitude change in a social context. Next steps require data, and higher dimensional models. Here, we discuss an exploratory study that demonstrates an order effect when three question sets about Climate Beliefs, Political Affiliation and Attitudes Towards Science are presented in different orders within a larger study of n=533 subjects. A quantum-like model seems possible, and we propose a new experiment which could be used to test between three possible models for this scenario.

Morphometric modelling of ageing in the human pubic symphysis : sexual dimorphism in an Australian population

Despite the prominent use of the pubic symphysis for age estimation in forensic anthropology, little has been documented regarding the quantitative morphological and micro-architectural changes of this surface. Specifically, utilising post-mortem computed tomography data from a large, contemporary Australian adult population, this study aimed to evaluate sexual dimorphism in the morphology and bone composition of the symphyseal surface; and temporal characterisation of the pubic symphysis in individuals of advancing age. The sample consisted of multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis(slice thickness: 0.5 mm, overlap: 0.1 mm) of 200 individuals of Caucasian ancestry aged 15–70 years, obtained in 2011. Surface rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in OsiriX1 (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform XOSTM and OsteomeasureTM. Morphometric variables including inter-pubic distance, surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone compositions were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The major results of this study are correlated with the macroscopic ossification and degeneration pattern of the symphyseal surface, demonstrating significant age-related changes in the morphometric and bone tissue variables between 15 and 70 years. Regardless of sex, the overall dimensions of the symphyseal surface increased with age, coupled with a decrease in bone mass in the trabecular and cortical bone compartments. Significant differences between the ventral, dorsal and medial cortical surfaces were observed, which may be correlated to bone formation activity dependent on muscle activity and ligamentous attachments. Our study demonstrates significant sexual dimorphism at this site, with males exhibiting greater surface dimensions than females. These baseline results provide a detailed insight into the changes in the structure of the pubic symphysis with ageing and sexually dimorphic features associated with the cortical and trabecular bone profiles.

The ‘Good Eater’ : modelling maternal perception of food fussiness in Australian toddlers – the NOURISH and SAIDI cohorts

Purpose Food refusal is part of normal toddler development due to an innate ability to self-regulate energy intake and the onset of neophobia. For parents, this ‘fussy’ stage causes great concern, prompting use of coercive feeding practices which ignore a child’s own hunger and satiety cues, promoting overeating and overweight. This analysis defines characteristics of the ‘good eater’ using latent variable structural equation modelling and the relationship with maternal perception of her child as a fussy eater. Methods Mothers in the control group of the NOURISH and South Australian Infants Dietary Intake studies (n=332) completed a self-administered questionnaire - when child was age 12-16 months - describing refusal of familiar and unfamiliar foods and maternal perception as fussy/not fussy. Weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) was derived from weight measured by study staff. Questionnaire items and WAZ were combined in AMOS to represent the latent variable the ‘good eater’. Results/findings Mean age(sd) of children was 13.8(1.3) months, mean WAZ(sd), .58(.86) and 49% were male. The ‘good eater’ was represented by higher WAZ, a child that hardly ever refuses food, hardly ever refuses familiar food, and willing to eat unfamiliar foods (x2/df=2.80, GFI=.98, RMSEA=.07(.03-.12), CFI=.96). The ‘good eater’ was inversely associated with maternal perception of her child as a fussy eater (β=-.64, p<.05). Conclusions Toddlers displaying characteristics of a ‘good eater’ are not perceived as fussy, but these characteristics, especially higher WAZ, may be undesirable in the context of obesity prevention. Clinicians can promote food refusal as normal and even desirable in healthy young children.

Modelling and performance of an active heave compensator for offshore operations

The development of offshore oil and gas fields require the placement of different equipment on the sea floor. This is done by deploying the equipment from vessels operating in dynamic positioning on the surface. The deployment operation has different phases, and in higher sea states, it may require wave-load synchronization, when the load is going through the splash zone, and heave compensation when the load is close to the sea floor. In this paper, we analyse the performance of a particular type of hardware operating in a heave compensation mode. We derive a comprehensive model, analyse limits of performance and evaluate a control strategy.

A review of pedestrian group dynamics and methodologies in modelling pedestrian group behaviours

Observations conducted by researchers revealed that the group interaction within crowds is a common phenomenon and has great influence on pedestrian behaviour. However, most research currently undertaken by various researchers failed to consider the group dynamics when developing pedestrian flow models. This paper presented a critical review of pedestrian models that incorporates group behaviour. Models reviewed in this paper are mainly created by microscopic modelling approaches such as social force, cellular automata, and agent-based method. The purpose of this literature review is to improve the understanding of group dynamics among pedestrians and highlight the need for considering group dynamics when developing pedestrian simulation models.

Practices and effectiveness of building information modelling in construction projects in China

Based on an investigation of 106 projects involving the use of building information modelling (BIM), this paper examines current BIM practices in China, and assesses how various practices alter their effectiveness. The results reveal that in current practice BIM is principally employed as a visualization tool, and how it is implemented is significantly associated with project characteristics. BIM use in the majority of the surveyed projects is seen to have positive outcomes, with the benefits of improved task effectiveness being more substantial than those related to efficiency improvement. The results also provide evidence that project characteristics significantly influence the success of BIM use; however, more substantial contributing factors to BIM effectiveness are the extent of integrated use and client/owner support. While indicating that current BIM practices involve both technological and organizational problems, the findings also provide insights into how the potential for BIM could be better exploited within the industry.

Theoretical modelling of momentum transfer function of bi-disperse porous media

The aim of this paper is to obtain the momentum transfer coefficient between the two phases, denoted by f and p, occupying a bi-disperse porous medium by mapping the available experimental data to the theoretical model proposed by Nield and Kuznetsov. Data pertinent to plate-fin heat exchangers, as bi-disperse porous media, were used. The measured pressure drops for such heat exchangers are then used to give the overall permeability which is linked to the porosity and permeability of each phase as well as the interfacial momentum transfer coefficient between the two phases. Accordingly, numerical values are obtained for the momentum transfer coefficient for three different fin spacing values considered in the heat exchanger experiments.

Modelling the intention to adopt cloud computing services : a transaction cost theory perspective

This paper uses transaction cost theory to study cloud computing adoption. A model is developed and tested with data from an Australian survey. According to the results, perceived vendor opportunism and perceived legislative uncertainty around cloud computing were significantly associated with perceived cloud computing security risk. There was also a significant negative relationship between perceived cloud computing security risk and the intention to adopt cloud services. This study also reports on adoption rates of cloud computing in terms of applications, as well as the types of services used.

Mathematical modelling of intramembranous bone formation during fracture healing

During fracture healing, many complex and cryptic interactions occur between cells and bio-chemical molecules to bring about repair of damaged bone. In this thesis two mathematical models were developed, concerning the cellular differentiation of osteoblasts (bone forming cells) and the mineralisation of new bone tissue, allowing new insights into these processes. These models were mathematically analysed and simulated numerically, yielding results consistent with experimental data and highlighting the underlying pattern formation structure in these aspects of fracture healing.

Choosing an appropriate modelling framework for analysing multispecies co-culture cell biology experiments

In vitro cell biology assays play a crucial role in informing our understanding of the migratory, proliferative and invasive properties of many cell types in different biological contexts. While mono-culture assays involve the study of a population of cells composed of a single cell type, co-culture assays study a population of cells composed of multiple cell types (or subpopulations of cells). Such co-culture assays can provide more realistic insights into many biological processes including tissue repair, tissue regeneration and malignant spreading. Typically, system parameters, such as motility and proliferation rates, are estimated by calibrating a mathematical or computational model to the observed experimental data. However, parameter estimates can be highly sensitive to the choice of model and modelling framework. This observation motivates us to consider the fundamental question of how we can best choose a model to facilitate accurate parameter estimation for a particular assay. In this work we describe three mathematical models of mono-culture and co-culture assays that include different levels of spatial detail. We study various spatial summary statistics to explore if they can be used to distinguish between the suitability of each model over a range of parameter space. Our results for mono-culture experiments are promising, in that we suggest two spatial statistics that can be used to direct model choice. However, co-culture experiments are far more challenging: we show that these same spatial statistics which provide useful insight into mono-culture systems are insuffcient for co-culture systems. Therefore, we conclude that great care ought to be exercised when estimating the parameters of co-culture assays.