A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

The measurement of information system use: preliminary considerations

The concept of system use has suffered from a "too simplistic definition" (DeLone and McLean [9], p. 16). This paper reviews various attempts at conceptualization and measurement of system use and then proposes a re-conceptualization of it as "the level of incorporation of an information system within a user's processes." We then go on to develop the concept of a Functional Interface Point and four dimensions of system usage: automation level, the proportion of the business process encoded by the information system; extent, the proportion of the FIPs used by the business process; frequency, the rate at which FIPs are used by the participants in the process; and thoroughness, the level of use of information/functionality provided by the system at an FIP. The article concludes with a discussion of some implications of this re-conceptualization and areas for follow on research.