Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Historical intake and elimination of polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides by the Australian population reconstructed from biomonitoring data

Quantifying the competing rates of intake and elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the human body is necessary to understand the levels and trends of POPs at a population level. In this paper we reconstruct the historical intake and elimination of ten polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and five organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from Australian biomonitoring data by fitting a population-level pharmacokinetic (PK) model. Our analysis exploits two sets of cross-sectional biomonitoring data for PCBs and OCPs in pooled blood serum samples from the Australian population that were collected in 2003 and 2009. The modeled adult reference intakes in 1975 for PCB congeners ranged from 0.89 to 24.5 ng/kg bw/day, lower than the daily intakes of OCPs ranging from 73 to 970 ng/kg bw/day. Modeled intake rates are declining with half-times from 1.1 to 1.3 years for PCB congeners and 0.83 to 0.97 years for OCPs. The shortest modeled intrinsic human elimination half-life among the compounds studied here is 6.4 years for hexachlorobenzene, and the longest is 30 years for PCB-74. Our results indicate that it is feasible to reconstruct intakes and to estimate intrinsic human elimination half-lives using the population-level PK model and biomonitoring data only. Our modeled intrinsic human elimination half-lives are in good agreement with values from a similar study carried out for the population of the United Kingdom, and are generally longer than reported values from other industrialized countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

Determination of the levels of Polybrominated Diphenylethers (PBDEs) in pooled blood sera obtained from Australians aged 31-45 years

Polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) are widely used as flame retardants in polymer materials, textiles, electronic boards and various other materials. Technical PBDE preparations are produced as mixtures of mainly penta-, octa- or decabrombiphenyl ethers1,2. PBDEs are structurally similar to other environmental pollutants like dioxins and PCBs, they are lipophilic and persistent compounds and are widespread in the environment. To date, no information is available on the levels of PBDEs in human serum in Australia. In 2003, more than 9000 blood samples were collected in Australia as part of the National Dioxins Program. The aim of this study was to evaluate PBDE concentrations in these samples, focusing on one age group.

Assessment of the concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants in the Australian population : levels in blood

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a common class of brominated flame retardants, are a ubiquitous part of our built environment, and for many years have contributed to improved public safety by reducing the flammability of everyday goods. Recently, PBDEs have come under increased international attention because of their potential to impact upon the environment and human health. Some PBDE compounds have been nominated for possible inclusion on the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, to which Australia is a Party. Work under the Stockholm Convention has demonstrated the capacity of some PBDEs to persist and accumulate in the environment and to be carried long distances. Much is unknown about the impact of PBDEs on living organisms, however recent studies show that some PBDEs can inhibit growth in colonies of plankton and algae and depress the reproduction of zooplankton. Laboratory mice and rats have also shown liver disturbances and damage to developing nervous systems as a result of exposure to PBDEs. In 2004, the Australian Government Department of the Environment and Water Resources began three studies to examine levels of PBDEs in aquatic sediments, indoor environments and human blood, as knowledge about PBDEs in Australia was very limited. The aim of these studies was to improve this knowledge base so that governments were in a better position to consider appropriate management actions. Due to the high costs for laboratory analysis of PBDEs, the number of samples collected for each study was limited and so caution is required when interpreting the findings. Nevertheless, these studies will provide governments with an indication of how prevalent PBDEs are in the Australian population and the environment and will also contribute to international knowledge about these chemicals. The Department of the Environment and Water Resources will be working closely with othergovernment agencies, industry and the community to investigate any further action that may be required to address PBDEs in Australia.

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Australian population: Levels in human milk

This study arose out of the 2002 Review of the PCB Management Plan by the Scheduled Waste Management Network (SWMN) and the National Advisory Body (NAB). The Review indicated it would be beneficial to obtain some data on the levels of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in the Australian population. In 2002, the Environment Protection and Heritage Standing Committee (EPHSC) agreed and noted that the Australian Government Department of the Environment and Heritage (DEH) would commission a study using the same samples from the National Dioxins Program (NDP) breast milk study collected in 2002- 03. The study, however, was also broadened to include polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs).

A novel population balance model for the dilute acid hydrolysis of hemicellulose

Acid hydrolysis is a popular pretreatment for removing hemicellulose from lignocelluloses in order to produce a digestible substrate for enzymatic saccharification. In this work, a novel model for the dilute acid hydrolysis of hemicellulose within sugarcane bagasse is presented and calibrated against experimental oligomer profiles. The efficacy of mathematical models as hydrolysis yield predictors and as vehicles for investigating the mechanisms of acid hydrolysis is also examined. Experimental xylose, oligomer (degree of polymerisation 2 to 6) and furfural yield profiles were obtained for bagasse under dilute acid hydrolysis conditions at temperatures ranging from 110C to 170C. Population balance kinetics, diffusion and porosity evolution were incorporated into a mathematical model of the acid hydrolysis of sugarcane bagasse. This model was able to produce a good fit to experimental xylose yield data with only three unknown kinetic parameters ka, kb and kd. However, fitting this same model to an expanded data set of oligomeric and furfural yield profiles did not successfully reproduce the experimental results. It was found that a ``hard-to-hydrolyse'' parameter, $\alpha$, was required in the model to ensure reproducibility of the experimental oligomer profiles at 110C, 125C and 140C. The parameters obtained through the fitting exercises at lower temperatures were able to be used to predict the oligomer profiles at 155C and 170C with promising results. The interpretation of kinetic parameters obtained by fitting a model to only a single set of data may be ambiguous. Although these parameters may correctly reproduce the data, they may not be indicative of the actual rate parameters, unless some care has been taken to ensure that the model describes the true mechanisms of acid hydrolysis. It is possible to challenge the robustness of the model by expanding the experimental data set and hence limiting the parameter space for the fitting parameters. The novel combination of ``hard-to-hydrolyse'' and population balance dynamics in the model presented here appears to stand up to such rigorous fitting constraints.

Frequency of convergence and accommodative disorders in a clinical population of Mashhad, Iran

Purpose To investigate the frequency of convergence and accommodation anomalies in an optometric clinical setting in Mashhad, Iran, and to determine tests with highest accuracy in diagnosing these anomalies. Methods From 261 patients who came to the optometric clinics of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences during a month, 83 of them were included in the study based on the inclusion criteria. Near point of convergence (NPC), near and distance heterophoria, monocular and binocular accommodative facility (MAF and BAF, respectively), lag of accommodation, positive and negative fusional vergences (PFV and NFV, respectively), AC/A ratio, relative accommodation, and amplitude of accommodation (AA) were measured to diagnose the convergence and accommodation anomalies. The results were also compared between symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. The accuracy of these tests was explored using sensitivity (S), specificity (Sp), and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR−). Results Mean age of the patients was 21.3 ± 3.5 years and 14.5% of them had specific binocular and accommodative symptoms. Convergence and accommodative anomalies were found in 19.3% of the patients; accommodative excess (4.8%) and convergence insufficiency (3.6%) were the most common accommodative and convergence disorders, respectively. Symptomatic patients showed lower values for BAF (p = .003), MAF (p = .001), as well as AA (p = .001) compared with asymptomatic patients. Moreover, BAF (S = 75%, Sp = 62%) and MAF (S = 62%, Sp = 89%) were the most accurate tests for detecting accommodative and convergence disorders in terms of both sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Convergence and accommodative anomalies are the most common binocular disorders in optometric patients. Including tests of monocular and binocular accommodative facility in routine eye examinations as accurate tests to diagnose these anomalies requires further investigation.

Improving wound management for residents in Residential Aged Care Facilities: National dissemination and implementation of the evidence based Champions for Skin Integrity Program

Overview The incidence of skin tears, pressure injuries and chronic wounds increases with age [1-4] and therefore is a serious issue for staff and residents in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs). A pilot project funded in Round 2 of the Encouraging Best Practice in Residential Aged Care (EBPRAC) program by the then Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing found that a substantial proportion of residents in aged care facilities experienced pressure injuries, skin tears or chronic wounds. It also found the implementation of the evidence based Champions for Skin Integrity (CSI) model of wound care was successful in significantly decreasing the prevalence and severity of wounds in residents, improving staff skills and knowledge of evidence based wound management, increasing staff confidence with wound management, increasing implementation of evidence based wound management and prevention strategies, and increasing staff awareness of their roles in evidence based wound care at all levels [5]. Importantly, during the project, the project team developed a resource kit on evidence based wound management. Two critical recommendations resulting from the project were that: - The CSI model or a similar strategic approach should be implemented in RACFs to facilitate the uptake of evidence based wound management and prevention - The resource kit on evidence based wound management should be made available to all Residential Aged Care Facilities and interested parties A proposal to disseminate or rollout the CSI model of wound care to all RACFs across Australia was submitted to the department in 2012. The department approved funding from the Aged Care Services Improvement Healthy Ageing Grant (ACSIHAG) at the same time as the Round 3 of the Encouraging Better Practice in Aged Care (EBPAC) program. The dissemination involved two crucial elements: 1. The updating, refining and distribution of a Champions for Skin Integrity Resource Kit, more commonly known as a CSI Resource Kit and 2. The presentation of intensive one day Promoting Healthy Skin “Train the Trainer” workshops in all capital cities and major regional towns across Australia Due to demand, the department agreed to fund a second round of workshops focussing on regional centres and the completion date was extended to accommodate the workshops. Later, the department also decided to host a departmental website for a number of clinical domains, including wound management, so that staff from the residential aged care sector had easy access to a central repository of helpful clinical resource material that could be used for improving the health and wellbeing of their older adults, consumers and carers. CSI Resource Kit Upgrade and Distribution: At the start of the project, a full evidence review was carried out on the material produced during the EBPRAC-CSI Stage 1 project and the relevant evidence based changes were made to the documentation. At the same time participants in the EBPRAC-CSI Stage 1 project were interviewed for advice on how to improve the resource material. Following this the documentation, included in the kit, was sent to independent experts for peer review. When this process was finalised, a learning designer and QUT’s Visual Communications Services were engaged to completely refine and update the design of the resources, and combined resource kit with the goal of keeping the overall size of the kit suitable for bookshelf mounting and the cost at reasonable levels. Both goals were achieved in that the kit is about the same size as a 25 mm A4 binder and costs between $19.00 and $28.00 per kit depending on the size of the print run. The dissemination of the updated CSI resource kit was an outstanding success. Demand for the kits was so great that a second print run of 2,000 kits was arranged on top of the initial print run of 4,000 kits. All RACFs across Australia were issued with a kit, some 2,740 in total. Since the initial distribution another 1,100 requests for kits has been fulfilled as well as 1,619 kits being distributed to participants at the Promoting Healthy Skin workshops. As the project was winding up a final request email was sent to all workshop participants asking if they required additional kits or resources to distribute the remaining kits and resources. This has resulted in requests for 200 additional kits and resources. Feedback from the residential aged care sector and other clinical providers who have interest in wound care has been very positive regarding the utility of the kit, (see Appendix 4). Promoting Healthy Skin Workshops The workshops also exceeded the project team’s initial objective. Our goal of providing workshop training for staff from one in four facilities and 450 participants was exceeded, with overwhelming demand for workshop places resulting in the need to provide a second round of workshops across Australia. At the completion of the second round, 37 workshops had been given, with 1286 participants, representing 835 facilities. A number of strategies were used to promote the workshops ranging from invitations included in the kit, to postcard mail-outs, broadcast emailing to all facilities and aged care networks and to articles and paid advertising in aged care journals. The most effective method, by far, was directly phoning the facilities. This enabled the caller to contact the relevant staff member and enlist their support for the workshop. As this is a labour intensive exercise, it was only used where numbers needed bolstering, with one venue rising from 3 registrants before the calls to 53 registrants after. The workshops were aimed at staff who had the interest and the capability of implementing evidence-based wound management within their facility or organisation. This targeting was successful in that a large proportion (68%) of participants were Registered Nurses, Nurse Managers, Educators or Consultants. Twenty percent were Endorsed Enrolled Nurses with the remaining 12% being made up of Personal Care Workers or Allied Health Professionals. To facilitate long term sustainability, the workshop employed train-the-trainer strategies. Feedback from the EBPRAC-CSI Stage 1 interviews was used in the development of workshop content. In addition, feedback from the workshop conducted at the end of the EBPRAC-CSI Stage 1 project suggested that change management and leadership training should be included in the workshops. The program was trialled in the first workshop conducted in Brisbane and then rolled out across Australia. Participants were asked to complete pre and post workshop surveys at the beginning and end of the workshop to determine how knowledge and confidence improved over the day. Results from the pre and post surveys showed significant improvements in the level of confidence in attendees’ ability to implement evidence based wound management. The results also indicated a significant increase in the level of confidence in ability to implement change within their facility or organisation. This is an important indication that the inclusion of change management/leadership training with clinical instruction can increase staff capacity and confidence in translating evidence into practice. To encourage the transfer of the evidence based content of the workshop into practice, participants were asked to prepare an Action Plan to be followed by a simple one page progress report three months after the workshop. These reports ranged from simple (e.g. skin moisturising to prevent skin tears), to complex implementation plans for introducing the CSI model across the whole organisation. Outcomes described in the project reports included decreased prevalence of skin tears, pressure injuries and chronic wounds, along with increased staff and resident knowledge and resident comfort. As stated above, some organisations prepared large, complex plans to roll out the CSI model across their organisation. These plans included a review of the organisation’s wound care system, policies and procedures, the creation of new processes, the education of staff and clients, uploading education and resource material onto internal electronic platforms and setting up formal review and evaluation processes. The CSI Resources have been enthusiastically sought and incorporated into multiple health care settings, including aged care, acute care, Medicare Local intranets (e.g. Map of Medicine e-pathways), primary health care, community and home care organisations, education providers and New Zealand aged and community health providers. Recommendations: Recommendations for RACFs, aged care and health service providers and government  Skin integrity and the evidence-practice gap in this area should be recognised as a major health issue for health service providers for older adults, with wounds experienced by up to 50% of residents in aged care settings (Edwards et al. 2010). Implementation of evidence based wound care through the Champions for Skin Integrity model in this and the pilot project has demonstrated the prevalence of wounds, wound healing times and wound infections can be halved.  A national program and Centre for Evidence Based Wound Management should be established to: - expand the reach of the model to other aged care facilities and health service providers for older adults - sustain the uptake of models such as the Champions for Skin Integrity (CSI) model - ensure current resources, expertise and training are available for consumers and health care professionals to promote skin integrity for all older adults  Evidence based resources for the CSI program and similar projects should be reviewed and updated every 3 – 4 years as per NH&MRC recommendations  Leadership and change management training is fundamental to increasing staff capacity, at all levels, to promote within-organisation dissemination of skills and knowledge gained from projects providing evidence based training Recommendations for future national dissemination projects  A formal program of opportunities for small groups of like projects to share information and resources, coordinate activities and synergise education programs interactively would benefit future national dissemination projects - Future workshop programs could explore an incentive program to optimise attendance and reduce ‘no shows’ - Future projects should build in the capacity and funding for increased follow-up with workshop attendees, to explore the reasons behind those who are unable to translate workshop learnings into the workplace and identify factors to address these barriers.

The Lymphedema Evaluation in Gynecological cancer Study (LEGS): Design of a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

Background The Lymphoedema Evaluation in Gynecological cancer Study (LEGS) was a longitudinal, observational, cohort study prospectively evaluating the incidence and risk factors of lower-limb lymphedema after treatment for gynecological cancer. Here we describe the study protocol and characteristics of the sample. Methods Women with a newly diagnosed gynecological cancer between June 1, 2008 and February 28, 2011, aged 18 years or older, and treated at one of six hospitals in Queensland, Australia, were eligible. Lymphedema was assessed by circumference measurements, bioimpedance spectroscopy, and self-reported swelling. LEGS incorporated a cohort of patients requiring surgery for benign gynecological conditions for comparison purposes. Data were collected prior to surgery and at regular intervals thereafter up to 2-years post-diagnosis. Results 546 women participated (408 cancer, 138 benign), with a 24-month retention rate of 78%. Clinical and treatment characteristics of participants were similar to the Queensland gynecological cancer population, except for a higher proportion of early-stage cervical cancers recruited to LEGS compared with Queensland proportions (89% versus 55%, respectively). Discussion Few imbalances were observed between participants with complete and incomplete follow-up data. The prospective design and collection of objective and patient-reported outcome data will allow comprehensive assessment of incidence and risk factors of lower-limb lymphedema.

Oral liquid nutritional supplements for people with dementia in residential aged care facilities

AIM: This systematic review investigated the prescription, administration and effectiveness of oral liquid nutritional supplements (OLNS) for people with dementia in residential aged care facilities (RACF). METHODS: A comprehensive search of relevant databases, hand searching and cross-referencing found 15 relevant articles from a total of 2910 possible results. Articles which met the inclusion criteria were critically appraised by two independent reviewers using the relevant Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) appraisal checklist. Data were extracted using the relevant JBI extraction instruments. No data synthesis was possible due to clinical and methodological heterogeneity. RESULTS: Included studies examined a range of strategies, issues and results related to OLNS for persons with dementia in RACFs; however there appear to be significant gaps in the current body of research, particularly in relation to examinations of effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This review was unable to produce a definitive finding regarding effectiveness. OLNS may improve the nutritional state of residents with dementia and help prevent weight loss, and there is some suggestion that it may slow the rate of cognitive decline. However, in order for OLNS to be effective, nursing and care staff need to ensure that sufficient attention is paid to the issues of prescription and administration.

Peripapillary choroidal thickness in childhood

Changes in the thickness of the invivo peripapillary choroid have been documented in a range of ocular conditions in adults; however, choroidal thickness in the peripapillary region of children has not been examined in detail. This study therefore aimed to investigate the thickness of the peripapillary choroid and the overlying retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) in a population of normal children with a range of refractive errors. Ninety-three children (37 myopes and 56 non-myopes) aged between 11 and 16 years, had measurements of peripapillary choroidal and RNFL thickness derived from enhanced depth imaging optical coherence tomography images (EDI-OCT, Heidelberg Spectralis). The average thickness was determined in a series of five 0.25 mm width concentric annuli (each divided into 8 equal sized 45° sectors) centred on the optic nerve head boundary, accounting for individual ocular magnification factors and the disc-fovea angle. Significant variations in peripapillary choroidal thickness were found to occur with both annulus location (p<0.001) and sector position (p<0.001) in this population of children. The innermost annulus (closest to the edge of the optic disc) exhibited the thinnest choroid (mean 77 ± 16 μm) and the outermost annulus, the thickest choroid (191 ± 52 μm). The choroid was thinnest inferior to the optic nerve head (139 ± 38 μm) and was thickest in the superior temporal sector (157 ± 40 μm). Significant differences in the distribution of choroidal thickness were also associated with myopia, with myopic children having significantly thinner choroids in the inner and outer annuli of the nasal and temporal sectors respectively (p<0.001). RNFL thickness also varied significantly with annulus location and sector (p<0.001), and showed differences in thickness distribution associated with refractive error. This study establishes the normal variations in the thickness of the peripapillary choroid with radial distance and azimuthal angle from the optic nerve head boundary. A significant thinning of the peripapillary choroid associated with myopia in childhood was also observed in both nasal and temporal regions. The changes in peripapillary RNFL and choroidal thickness associated with refractive error are consistent with a redistribution of these tissues occurring with myopic axial elongation in childhood.

Dietary intake in Australian children aged 4–24 months: Consumption of meat and meat alternatives

Meat/meat alternatives (M/MA) are key sources of Fe, Zn and protein, but intake tends to be low in young children. Australian recommendations state that Fe-rich foods, including M/MA, should be the first complementary foods offered to infants. The present paper reports M/MA consumption of Australian infants and toddlers, compares intake with guidelines, and suggests strategies to enhance adherence to those guidelines. Mother–infant dyads recruited as part of the NOURISH and South Australian Infants Dietary Intake studies provided 3 d of intake data at three time points: Time 1 (T1) (n 482, mean age 5·5 (SD 1·1) months), Time 2 (T2) (n 600, mean age 14·0 (SD 1·2) months) and Time 3 (T3) (n 533, mean age 24 (SD 0·7) months). Of 170 infants consuming solids and aged greater than 6 months at T1, 50 (29 %) consumed beef, lamb, veal (BLV) or pork on at least one of 3 d. Commercial infant foods containing BLV or poultry were the most common form of M/MA consumed at T1, whilst by T2 BLV mixed dishes (including pasta bolognaise) became more popular and remained so at T3. The processed M/MA increased in popularity over time, led by pork (including ham). The present study shows that M/MA are not being eaten by Australian infants or toddlers regularly enough; or in adequate quantities to meet recommendations; and that the form in which these foods are eaten can lead to smaller M/MA serve sizes and greater Na intake. Parents should be encouraged to offer M/MA in a recognisable form, as one of the first complementary foods, in order to increase acceptance at a later age.

Process quality indicators targeting cognitive impairment to support quality of care for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments

Objectives The objective of this study was to develop process quality indicators (PQIs) to support the improvement of care services for older people with cognitive impairment in emergency departments (ED). Methods A structured research approach was taken for the development of PQIs for the care of older people with cognitive impairment in EDs, including combining available evidence with expert opinion (phase 1), a field study (phase 2), and formal voting (phase 3). A systematic review of the literature identified ED processes targeting the specific care needs of older people with cognitive impairment. Existing relevant PQIs were also included. By integrating the scientific evidence and clinical expertise, new PQIs were drafted and, along with the existing PQIs, extensively discussed by an advisory panel. These indicators were field tested in eight hospitals using a cohort of older persons aged 70 years and older. After analysis of the field study data (indicator prevalence, variability across sites), in a second meeting, the advisory panel further defined the PQIs. The advisory panel formally voted for selection of those PQIs that were most appropriate for care evaluation. Results In addition to seven previously published PQIs relevant to the care of older persons, 15 new indicators were created. These 22 PQIs were then field tested. PQIs designed specifically for the older ED population with cognitive impairment were only scored for patients with identified cognitive impairment. Following formal voting, a total of 11 PQIs were included in the set. These PQIs targeted cognitive screening, delirium screening, delirium risk assessment, evaluation of acute change in mental status, delirium etiology, proxy notification, collateral history, involvement of a nominated support person, pain assessment, postdischarge follow-up, and ED length of stay. Conclusions This article presents a set of PQIs for the evaluation of the care for older people with cognitive impairment in EDs. The variation in indicator triggering across different ED sites suggests that there are opportunities for quality improvement in care for this vulnerable group. Applied PQIs will identify an emergency services' implementation of care strategies for cognitively impaired older ED patients. Awareness of the PQI triggers at an ED level enables implementation of targeted interventions to improve any suboptimal processes of care. Further validation and utility of the indicators in a wider population is now indicated.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to childhood and maternal undernutrition in South Africa in 2000

OBJECTIVES To estimate the disease burden attributable to being underweight as an indicator of undernutrition in children under 5 years of age and in pregnant women for the year 2000. DESIGN World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. The 1999 National Food Consumption Survey prevalence of underweight classified in three low weight-for-age categories was compared with standard growth charts to estimate population-attributable fractions for mortality and morbidity outcomes, based on increased risk for each category and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for South Africa in 2000. Maternal underweight, leading to an increased risk of intra-uterine growth retardation and further risk of low birth weight (LBW), was also assessed using the approach adopted by the global assessment. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. SETTING South Africa. SUBJECTS Children under 5 years of age and pregnant women. OUTCOME MEASURES Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from protein- energy malnutrition and a fraction of those from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia, malaria, other non- HIV/AIDS infectious and parasitic conditions in children aged 0 - 4 years, and LBW. RESULTS Among children under 5 years, 11.8% were underweight. In the same age group, 11,808 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 11,100 - 12,642) or 12.3% (95% uncertainty interval 11.5 - 13.1%) were attributable to being underweight. Protein-energy malnutrition contributed 44.7% and diarrhoeal disease 29.6% of the total attributable burden. Childhood and maternal underweight accounted for 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 - 2.9%) of all DALYs in South Africa in 2000 and 10.8% (95% uncertainty interval 10.2 - 11.5%) of DALYs in children under 5. CONCLUSIONS The study shows that reduction of the occurrence of underweight would have a substantial impact on child mortality, and also highlights the need to monitor this important indicator of child health.