Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

Enterprise policy and the metagovernance of firm capabilities

The underlying logic of enterprise policy is that there are impediments to change in economic systems that can be traced to the path-dependent behaviors of economic actors that prevent them from exploring new knowledge and new ways of doing things. Enterprise policy involves firm-level interventions delivered by distributed networks of business advisors coordinated by knowledge intermediaries. These metagovernance arrangements are able to disrupt the path-dependent behaviors of organizations. The logic and benefits of enterprise policy are explored through reference to public administration, strategic management and evolutionary theory, and three case studies.

Revisiting educational equity and quality in China through confucianism, policy, research, and practice

The promotion of educational equity and improvement of educational quality in China are contextualised in tenets of Confucianism and policy directives, inspiring educational research and practice. In this paper, we first explore the historical and cultural roots of educational equity and quality through Confucianism and elaborate on the current policy priority that aims to address educational equity and quality. We then present an overview of research on equity and quality in Chinese education. Informed by Confucianism, policy, and research, we pose a framework to structure our investigation and analysis of three illustrative examples, namely the Special Post Teacher Plan, amalgamation of rural schools, and schooling of floating children. Drawing insights from Confucianism, policy, research, and practice, we conclude that the promotion of educational equity through high quality provision of education for disadvantaged groups can help to narrow the gap in educational quality currently existing in China.

An analysis of the KEEP CLEAR pavement markings effects on queuing vehicles dynamic performance at urban signalised intersections

KEEP CLEAR pavement markings are widely used at urban signalised intersections to indicate to drivers to avoid entering blocked intersections. For example, ‘Box junctions’ are most widely used in the United Kingdom and other European countries. However, in Australia, KEEP CLEAR markings are mostly used to improve access from side roads onto a main road, especially when the side road is very close to a signalised intersection. This paper aims to reveal how the KEEP CLEAR markings affect the dynamic performance of the queuing vehicles on the main road, where the side road access is near a signalised intersection. Raw traffic field data was collected from an intersection at the Gold Coast, Australia, and the Kanade–Lucas–Tomasi (KLT) feature tracker approach was used to extract dynamic vehicle data from the raw video footage. The data analysis reveals that the KEEP CLEAR markings generate positive effects on the queuing vehicles in discharge on the main road. This finding refutes the traditional viewpoint that the KEEP CLEAR pavement markings will cause delay for the queuing vehicles’ departure due to the enlarged queue spacing. Further studies are suggested in this paper as well.

National cultural policy is bold, but vulnerable

The first major national cultural policy in 19 years was unveiled by Minister for the Arts Simon Crean on 13 March 2013. Minister Crean has called it “a national cultural policy for the decade.” Uncharitable souls might ask “which decade?”, given that it was first promised soon after the election of the Rudd government in 2007. It is, however, a bold and forward-looking statement. In marked contrast to the limited detail provided by Communications Minister Stephen Conroy in support of the media reforms he recently announced, more than 150 pages Creative Australia outlines a comprehensive set of proposals for immediate action, and some aspirations for the longer term. Like the media reforms, however, it may not survive if there is a change in government in September.

Monitoring of complex systems of interacting dynamic systems

Increases in functionality, power and intelligence of modern engineered systems led to complex systems with a large number of interconnected dynamic subsystems. In such machines, faults in one subsystem can cascade and affect the behavior of numerous other subsystems. This complicates the traditional fault monitoring procedures because of the need to train models of the faults that the monitoring system needs to detect and recognize. Unavoidable design defects, quality variations and different usage patterns make it infeasible to foresee all possible faults, resulting in limited diagnostic coverage that can only deal with previously anticipated and modeled failures. This leads to missed detections and costly blind swapping of acceptable components because of one’s inability to accurately isolate the source of previously unseen anomalies. To circumvent these difficulties, a new paradigm for diagnostic systems is proposed and discussed in this paper. Its feasibility is demonstrated through application examples in automotive engine diagnostics.

Dynamic robot path planning using an enhanced simulated annealing approach

Evolutionary computation is an effective tool for solving optimization problems. However, its significant computational demand has limited its real-time and on-line applications, especially in embedded systems with limited computing resources, e.g., mobile robots. Heuristic methods such as the genetic algorithm (GA) based approaches have been investigated for robot path planning in dynamic environments. However, research on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, another popular evolutionary computation algorithm, for dynamic path planning is still limited mainly due to its high computational demand. An enhanced SA approach, which integrates two additional mathematical operators and initial path selection heuristics into the standard SA, is developed in this work for robot path planning in dynamic environments with both static and dynamic obstacles. It improves the computing performance of the standard SA significantly while giving an optimal or near-optimal robot path solution, making its real-time and on-line applications possible. Using the classic and deterministic Dijkstra algorithm as a benchmark, comprehensive case studies are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the enhanced SA and other SA algorithms in various dynamic path planning scenarios.

Faculty-librarian partnerships in Australian higher education : critical dimensions

Australian higher education is presently subject to a period of substantial change. The needs of the economy and workforce, together with the broader educational role of the university are leading to focus on lifelong learning as a tool for bringing together the apparently diverging needs of different groups. Within this broader context, the emphasis on lifelong learning and associated graduate capabilities is leading to opportunities for new partnerships between faculty and librarians, partnerships that bring the two groups together in ways that are helping to transform the experience of teaching and learning. This paper explores emerging partnerships in diverse areas, including research and scholarship, curriculum, policy, supervision, and staff development. They are in the early phases of development and result from a broad focus on the learning and information literacy needs of students, as opposed to a narrow focus on using the library and its information resources. Taken together, and viewed from a system-wide perspective, these partnerships reveal a complex dynamic that is deserving of wider attention across the Australian higher education system and internationally.

A socially just rationale for an Australian curriculum? : a critical thematic policy analysis of political speeches in education (2007-2010)

In late 2007, newly elected Prime Minister Kevin Rudd placed education reform on centre stage as a key policy in the Labor Party's agenda for social reform in Australia. A major policy strategy within this 'Education Revolution' was the development of a national curriculum, the Australian Curriculum Within this political context, this study is an investigation into how social justice and equity have been used in political speeches to justify the need for, and the nature of, Australia's first official national curriculum. The aim is to provide understandings into what is said or not said; who is included or excluded, represented or misrepresented; for what purpose; and for whose benefit. The study investigates political speeches made by Education Ministers between 2008 and 201 0; that is, from the inception of the Australian Curriculum to the release of the Phase 1 F - 10 draft curriculum documents in English, mathematics, science and history. Curriculum development is defined here as an ongoing process of complex conversations. To contextualise the process of curriculum development within Australia, the thesis commences with an initial review of curriculum development in this nation over the past three decades. It then frames this review within contemporary curriculum theory; in particular it calls upon the work of William Pinar and the key notions of currere and reconceptualised curriculum. This contextualisation work is then used as a foundation to examine how social justice and equity have been represented in political speeches delivered by the respective Education Ministers Julia Gillard and Peter Garrett at key junctures of Australian Curriculum document releases. A critical thematic policy analysis is the approach used to examine selected official speech transcripts released by the ministerial media centre through the DEEWR website. This approach provides a way to enable insights and understandings of representations of social justice and equity issues in the policy agenda. Broader social implications are also discussed. The project develops an analytic framework that enables an investigation into the framing of social justice and equity issues such as inclusion, equality, quality education, sharing of resources and access to learning opportunities in political speeches aligned with the development of the Australian Curriculum Through this analysis, the study adopts a focus on constructions of educationally disadvantaged students and how the solutions of 'fixing' teachers and providing the 'right' curriculum are presented as resolutions to the perceived problem. In this way, it aims to work towards offering insights into political justifications for a national curriculum in Australia from a social justice perspective.

Industrial land price and its impact on urban growth : a Chinese case study

China is experiencing rapid progress in industrialization, with its own rationale toward industrial land development based on a deliberate change from an extensive to intensive form of urban land use. One result has been concerted attempts by local government to attract foreign investment by a low industrial land price strategy, which has resulted in a disproportionally large amount of industrial land within the total urban land use structure at the expense of the urban sprawl of many cities. This paper first examines “Comparable Benchmark Price as Residential land use” (CBPR) as the theoretical basis of the low industrial land price phenomenon. Empirical findings are presented from a case study based on data from Jinyun County, China. These data are analyzed to reveal the rationale of industrial land price from 2000 to 2010 concerning the CBPR model. We then explore the causes of low industrial land prices in the form of a “Centipede Game Model”, involving two neighborhood regions as “major players” to make a set of moves (or strategies). When one of the players unilaterally reduces the land price to attract investment with the aim to maximize profits arising from the revenues generated from foreign investment and land premiums, a two-player price war begins in the form of a dynamic game, the effect of which is to produce a downward spiral of prices. In this context, the paradox of maximizing profits for each of the two players are not accomplished due to the inter-regional competition of attracted investment leading to a lose-lose situation for both sides’ in competing for land premium revenues. A short-term solution to the problem is offered involving the establishment of inter-regional cooperative partnerships. For the longer term, however, a comprehensive reform of the local financial system, more adroit regional planning and an improved means of evaluating government performance is needed to ensure the government's role in securing pubic goods is not abandoned in favor of one solely concerned with revenue generation.

Academics and activists in the policy process : engagement with Australian media inquiries 2011-13

After its narrow re-election in June 2010, the Australian Labor government undertook a series of public inquiries into reform of Australian media, communications and copyright laws. One important driver of policy reform was the government’s commitment to building a National Broadband Network (NBN), and the implications this had for existing broadcasting and telecommunications policy, as it would constitute a major driver of convergence of media and communications access devices and content platforms. These inquiries included: the Convergence Review of media and communications legislation; the Australian Law Reform Commission (ALRC) review of the National Classification Scheme; the Independent Media Inquiry (Finkelstein Review) into Media and Media Regulation; and the ALRC review of Copyright and the Digital Economy. One unusual feature of this review process, discussed in the paper, was the degree to which academics were involved in the process, not simply as providers of expert opinion, but as review chairs seconded from their universities. This paper considers the role played by activist groups in all of these inquiries and their relationship to the various participants in the inquiries, as well as the implications of academics being engaged in such inquiries, not simply as activist-scholars, but as those primarily responsible for delivering policy review outcomes. The latter brings to the forefront issues arising in from direct engagement with governments and state agencies themselves, which challenges traditional understandings of the academic community as “critical outsiders” towards such policy processes.

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.