A theory of process modelling impact

Process modelling – the design and use of graphical documentations of an organisation’s business processes – is a key method to document and use information about business processes. Still, despite current interest in process modelling, this research area faces essential challenges. Key unanswered questions concern the impact of process modelling in organisational practice, and the mechanisms through which impacts are developed. To answer these questions and to provide a better understanding of process modelling impact, I turn to the concept of affordances. Affordances describe the possibilities for goal-oriented action that technical objects offer to specified users. This notion has received growing attention from IS researchers. I report on my efforts to further develop the IS discipline’s understanding of affordances and impacts from informational objects, such as process models used by analysts for purposes of information systems analysis and design. Specifically, I seek to extend existing theory on the emergence and actualisation of affordances. I develop a research model that describes the process by which affordances are perceived and actualised and explain their dependence on available information and actualisation effort. I present my plans for operationalising and testing this research model empirically, and provide details about my design of a full-cycle, mixed methods study currently in progress.

Skin cancer detection by one click - are we any closer?

To the editor...

Characterisation of a human skin equivalent model to study the effects of ultraviolet B radiation on keratinocytes

The incidences of skin cancers resulting from chronic ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure are on the incline both in Australia and globally. Hence, the cellular and molecular pathways associated with UVR-induced photocarcinogenesis urgently need to be elucidated, in order to develop more robust preventative and treatment strategies against skin cancers. In vitro investigations into the effects of UVR (in particular the highly-mutagenic UVB wavelength) have, to date, mainly involved the use of cell culture and animal models. However, these models possess biological disparities to native skin, which to some extent have limited their relevance to the in vivo situation. To address this, we characterised a 3-dimensional, tissue-engineered human skin equivalent (HSE) model (consisting of primary human keratinocytes cultured on a dermal-derived scaffold) as a representation of a more physiologically-relevant platform to study keratinocyte responses to UVB. Significantly, we demonstrate that this model retains several important epidermal properties of native skin. Moreover, UVB-irradiation of the HSE constructs was shown to induce key markers of photodamage in the HSE keratinocytes, including the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers, the activation of apoptotic pathways, the accumulation of p53 and the secretion of inflammatory cytokines. Importantly, we also demonstrate that the UVB-exposed HSE constructs retain the capacity for epidermal repair and regeneration following photodamage. Together, our results demonstrate the potential of this skin equivalent model as a tool to study various aspects of the acute responses of human keratinocytes to UVB radiation damage.

Interventions to decrease skin cancer risk in outdoor workers : update to a 2007 systematic review

BACKGROUND: Outdoor workers are at high risk of harmful ultraviolet radiation exposure and are identified as an at risk group for the development of skin cancer. This systematic evidence based review provides an update to a previous review published in 2007 about interventions for the prevention of skin cancer in outdoor workers. RESULTS: This review includes interventions published between 2007-2012 and presents findings about sun protection behaviours and/or objective measures of skin cancer risk. Six papers met inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Large studies with extended follow-up times demonstrated the efficacy of educational and multi-component interventions to increase sun protection, with some higher use of personal protective equipment such as sunscreen. However, there is less evidence for the effectiveness of policy or specific intervention components. CONCLUSIONS: Further research aimed at improving overall attitudes towards sun protection in outdoor workers is needed to provide an overarching framework.

Mathematical modelling of counter flow v-grove solar air collector

Double-pass counter flow v-grove collector is considered one of the most efficient solar air-collectors. In this design of the collector, the inlet air initially flows at the top part of the collector and changes direction once it reaches the end of the collector and flows below the collector to the outlet. A mathematical model is developed for this type of collector and simulation is carried out using MATLAB programme. The simulation results were verified with three distinguished research results and it was found that the simulation has the ability to predict the performance of the air collector accurately as proven by the comparison of experimental data with simulation. The difference between the predicted and experimental results is, at maximum, approximately 7% which is within the acceptable limit considering some uncertainties in the input parameter values to allow comparison. A parametric study was performed and it was found that solar radiation, inlet air temperature, flow rate and length have a significant effect on the efficiency of the air collector. Additionally, the results are compared with single flow V-groove collector.

Tissue viability imaging of skin microcirculation following exposure to whole body cryotherapy (-110°C) and cold water immersion (8°C)

Cryotherapy is currently used in various clinical, rehabilitative, and sporting settings. However, very little is known regarding the impact of cooling on the microcirculatory response. Objectives: The present study sought to examine the influence of two commonly employed modalities of cryotherapy, whole body cryotherapy (WBC; -110°C) and cold water immersion(CWI; 8±1°C), on skin microcirculation in the mid- thigh region. Methods: The skin area examined was a 3 × 3 cm located between the most anterior aspect of the inguinal fold and the patella. Following 10 minutes of rest, 5 healthy, active males were exposed to either WBC for 3 minutes or CWI for 5 minutes in a randomised order. Volunteers lay supine for five minutes after treatment, in order to monitor the variation of red blood cell (RBC) concentration in the region of interest for a duration of 40 minutes. Microcirculation response was assessed using a non-invasive, portable instrument known as a Tissue Viability imaging system. After a minimum of seven days, the protocol was repeated. Subjective assessment of the volunteer’s thermal comfort and thermal sensation was also recorded. Results: RBC was altered following exposure to both WBC and CWI but appeared to stabilise approximately 35 minutes after treatments. Both WBC and CWI affected thermal sensation (p < 0.05); however no betweengroup differences in thermal comfort or sensation were recorded (p > 0.05). Conclusions: As both WBC and CWI altered RBC, further study is necessary to examine the mechanism for this alteration during whole body cooling.

Exchanging data between Digital Human Modelling systems : a review of data formats

Digital human modeling (DHM) systems underwent significant development within the last years. They achieved constantly growing importance in the field of ergonomic workplace design, product development, product usability, ergonomic research, ergonomic education, audiovisual marketing and the entertainment industry. They help to design ergonomic products as well as healthy and safe socio-technical work systems. In the domain of scientific DHM systems, no industry specific standard interfaces are defined which could facilitate the exchange of 3D solid body data, anthropometric data or motion data. The focus of this article is to provide an overview of requirements for a reliable data exchange between different DHM systems in order to identify suitable file formats. Examples from the literature are discussed in detail. Methods: As a first step a literature review is conducted on existing studies and file formats for exchanging data between different DHM systems. The found file formats can be structured into different categories: static 3D solid body data exchange, anthropometric data exchange, motion data exchange and comprehensive data exchange. Each file format is discussed and advantages as well as disadvantages for the DHM context are pointed out. Case studies are furthermore presented, which show first approaches to exchange data between DHM systems. Lessons learnt are shortly summarized. Results: A selection of suitable file formats for data exchange between DHM systems is determined from the literature review.

A survey of user modelling in social media websites

With the widespread of social media websites in the internet, and the huge number of users participating and generating infinite number of contents in these websites, the need for personalisation increases dramatically to become a necessity. One of the major issues in personalisation is building users’ profiles, which depend on many elements; such as the used data, the application domain they aim to serve, the representation method and the construction methodology. Recently, this area of research has been a focus for many researchers, and hence, the proposed methods are increasing very quickly. This survey aims to discuss the available user modelling techniques for social media websites, and to highlight the weakness and strength of these methods and to provide a vision for future work in user modelling in social media websites.

Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Prevention and treatment of acute radiation-induced skin reactions : a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background Radiation-induced skin reaction (RISR) is a common side effect that affects the majority of cancer patients receiving radiation treatment. RISR is often characterised by swelling,redness, pigmentation, fibrosis, and ulceration, pain, warmth, burning, and itching of the skin. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the effects of interventions which aim to prevent or manage RISR in people with cancer. Methods We searched the following databases up to November 2012: Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (2012, Issue 11), MEDLINE (from 1946), EMBASE (from 1974), PsycINFO (from 1806), CINAHL (from 1981) and LILACS (from 1982). Randomized controlled trials evaluating interventions for preventing or managing RISR in cancer patients were included. The primary outcomes were development of RISR, and levels of RISR and symptom severity. Secondary outcomes were time taken to develop erythema or dry desquamation; quality of life; time taken to heal, a number of skin reaction and symptom severity measures; cost, participant satisfaction; ease of use and adverse effects. Where appropriate, we pooled results of randomized controlled trials using mean differences (MD) or odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Forty-seven studies were included in this review. These evaluated six types of interventions (oral systemic medications; skin care practices; steroidal topical therapies; non-steroidal topical therapies; dressings and other). Findings from two meta-analyses demonstrated significant benefits of oral Wobe-Mugos E for preventing RISR (OR 0.13 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.38)) and limiting the maximal level of RISR (MD −0.92 (95% CI −1.36 to −0.48)). Another meta-analysis reported that wearing deodorant does not influence the development of RISR (OR 0.80 (95% CI 0.47 to 1.37)). Conclusions Despite the high number of trials in this area, there is limited good, comparative research that provides definitive results suggesting the effectiveness of any single intervention for reducing RISR. More research is required to demonstrate the usefulness of a wide range of products that are being used for reducing RISR. Future efforts for reducing RISR severity should focus on promising interventions, such as Wobe-Mugos E and oral zinc.

Improving short utterance i-vector speaker verification using utterance variance modelling and compensation techniques

This paper proposes techniques to improve the performance of i-vector based speaker verification systems when only short utterances are available. Short-length utterance i-vectors vary with speaker, session variations, and the phonetic content of the utterance. Well established methods such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA), source-normalized LDA (SN-LDA) and within-class covariance normalisation (WCCN) exist for compensating the session variation but we have identified the variability introduced by phonetic content due to utterance variation as an additional source of degradation when short-duration utterances are used. To compensate for utterance variations in short i-vector speaker verification systems using cosine similarity scoring (CSS), we have introduced a short utterance variance normalization (SUVN) technique and a short utterance variance (SUV) modelling approach at the i-vector feature level. A combination of SUVN with LDA and SN-LDA is proposed to compensate the session and utterance variations and is shown to provide improvement in performance over the traditional approach of using LDA and/or SN-LDA followed by WCCN. An alternative approach is also introduced using probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach to directly model the SUV. The combination of SUVN, LDA and SN-LDA followed by SUV PLDA modelling provides an improvement over the baseline PLDA approach. We also show that for this combination of techniques, the utterance variation information needs to be artificially added to full-length i-vectors for PLDA modelling.

Collagen in the scarless fetal skin wound : detection with picrosirius-polarization

Our group has developed an ovine model of deep dermal, partial-thickness burn where the fetus heals scarlessly and the lamb heals with scar. The comparison of collagen structure between these two different mechanisms of healing may elucidate the process of scarless wound healing. Picrosirius staining followed by polarized light microscopy was used to visualize collagen fibers, with digital capture and analysis. Collagen deposition increased with fetal age and the fibers became thicker, changing from green (type III collagen) to yellow/red (type I collagen). The ratio of type III collagen to type I was high in the fetus (166), whereas the lamb had a much lower ratio (0.2). After burn, the ratios of type III to type I collagen did not differ from those in control skin for either fetus or lamb. The fetal tissue maintained normal tissue architecture after burn while the lamb tissue showed irregular collagen organization. In conclusion, the type or amount of collagen does not alter significantly after injury. Tissue architecture differed between fetal and lamb tissue, suggesting that scar development is related to collagen cross-linking or arrangement. This study indicates that healing in the scarless fetal wound is representative of the normal fetal growth pattern, rather than a "response" to burn injury.

What are the secrets of successful process modelling? Insights from an Australian case study

L'intérêt suscité par la ré-ingénierie des processus et les technologies de l'information révèle l'émergence du paradigme du management par les processus. Bien que beaucoup d'études aient été publiées sur des outils et techniques alternatives de modélisation de processus, peu d'attention a été portée à l'évaluation post-hoc des activités de modélisation de processus ou à l'établissement de directives sur la façon de conduire efficacement une modélisation de processus. La présente étude a pour objectif de combler ce manque. Nous présentons les résultats d'une étude de cas détaillée, conduite dans une organisation leader australienne dans le but de construire un modèle de réussite de la modélisation des processus.

Modelling for the electricity distribution network

Global awareness for cleaner and renewable energy is transforming the electricity sector at many levels. New technologies are being increasingly integrated into the electricity grid at high, medium and low voltage levels, new taxes on carbon emissions are being introduced and individuals can now produce electricity, mainly through rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. While leading to improvements, these changes also introduce challenges, and a question that often rises is ‘how can we manage this constantly evolving grid?’ The Queensland Government and Ergon Energy, one of the two Queensland distribution companies, have partnered with some Australian and German universities on a project to answer this question in a holistic manner. The project investigates the impact the integration of renewables and other new technologies has on the physical structure of the grid, and how this evolving system can be managed in a sustainable and economical manner. To aid understanding of what the future might bring, a software platform has been developed that integrates two modelling techniques: agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture the characteristics of the different system units accurately and dynamically, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the most economical mix of network extension and integration of distributed generation over long periods of time. Using data from Ergon Energy, two types of networks (3 phase, and Single Wired Earth Return or SWER) have been modelled; three-phase networks are usually used in dense networks such as urban areas, while SWER networks are widely used in rural Queensland. Simulations can be performed on these networks to identify the required upgrades, following a three-step process: a) what is already in place and how it performs under current and future loads, b) what can be done to manage it and plan the future grid and c) how these upgrades/new installations will perform over time. The number of small-scale distributed generators, e.g. PV and battery, is now sufficient (and expected to increase) to impact the operation of the grid, which in turn needs to be considered by the distribution network manager when planning for upgrades and/or installations to stay within regulatory limits. Different scenarios can be simulated, with different levels of distributed generation, in-place as well as expected, so that a large number of options can be assessed (Step a). Once the location, sizing and timing of assets upgrade and/or installation are found using optimisation techniques (Step b), it is possible to assess the adequacy of their daily performance using agent-based modelling (Step c). One distinguishing feature of this software is that it is possible to analyse a whole area at once, while still having a tailored solution for each of the sub-areas. To illustrate this, using the impact of battery and PV can have on the two types of networks mentioned above, three design conditions can be identified (amongst others): · Urban conditions o Feeders that have a low take-up of solar generators, may benefit from adding solar panels o Feeders that need voltage support at specific times, may be assisted by installing batteries · Rural conditions - SWER network o Feeders that need voltage support as well as peak lopping may benefit from both battery and solar panel installations. This small example demonstrates that no single solution can be applied across all three areas, and there is a need to be selective in which one is applied to each branch of the network. This is currently the function of the engineer who can define various scenarios against a configuration, test them and iterate towards an appropriate solution. Future work will focus on increasing the level of automation in identifying areas where particular solutions are applicable.