A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

A portable approach for the surveillance of dengue virus-infected mosquitoes

Dengue virus is the most significant human viral pathogen spread by the bite of an infected mosquito. With no vaccine or antiviral therapy currently available, disease prevention relies largely on surveillance and mosquito control. Preventing the onset of dengue outbreaks and effective vector management would be considerably enhanced through surveillance of dengue virus prevalence in natural mosquito populations. However, current approaches to the identification of virus in field-caught mosquitoes require relatively slow and labor intensive techniques such as virus isolation or RT-PCR involving specialized facilities and personnel. A rapid and portable method for detecting dengue virus-infected mosquitoes is described. Using a hand held battery operated homogenizer and a dengue diagnostic rapid strip the viral protein NS1 was detected as a marker of dengue virus infection. This method could be performed in less than 30 min in the field, requiring no downstream processing, and is able to detect a single infected mosquito in a pool of at least 50 uninfected mosquitoes. The method described in this study allows rapid, real-time monitoring of dengue virus presence in mosquito populations and could be a useful addition to effective monitoring and vector control responses.

A dual-scale modelling approach for drying hygroscopic porous media

A new dualscale modelling approach is presented for simulating the drying of a wet hygroscopic porous material that couples the porous medium (macroscale) with the underlying pore structure (microscale). The proposed model is applied to the convective drying of wood at low temperatures and is valid in the so-called hygroscopic range, where hygroscopically held liquid water is present in the solid phase and water exits only as vapour in the pores. Coupling between scales is achieved by imposing the macroscopic gradients of moisture content and temperature on the microscopic field using suitably-defined periodic boundary conditions, which allows the macroscopic mass and thermal fluxes to be defined as averages of the microscopic fluxes over the unit cell. This novel formulation accounts for the intricate coupling of heat and mass transfer at the microscopic scale but reduces to a classical homogenisation approach if a linear relationship is assumed between the microscopic gradient and flux. Simulation results for a sample of spruce wood highlight the potential and flexibility of the new dual-scale approach. In particular, for a given unit cell configuration it is not necessary to propose the form of the macroscopic fluxes prior to the simulations because these are determined as a direct result of the dual-scale formulation.

Risk-based approach to the management of on-site wastewater treatment facilities

Background On-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS) siting, design and management has traditionally been based on site specific conditions with little regard to the surrounding environment or the cumulative effect of other systems in the environment. The general approach has been to apply the same framework of standards and regulations to all sites equally, regardless of the sensitivity, or lack thereof, to the receiving environment. Consequently, this has led to the continuing poor performance and failure of on-site systems, resulting in environmental and public health consequences. As a result, there is increasing realisation that more scientifically robust evaluations in regard to site assessment and the underlying ground conditions are needed. Risk-based approaches to on-site system siting, design and management are considered the most appropriate means of improvement to the current standards and codes for on-site wastewater treatment systems. The Project Research in relation to this project was undertaken within the Gold Coast City Council region, the major focus being the semi-urban, rural residential and hinterland areas of the city that are not serviced by centralised treatment systems. The Gold Coast has over 15,000 on-site systems in use, with approximately 66% being common septic tank-subsurface dispersal systems. A recent study evaluating the performance of these systems within the Gold Coast area showed approximately 90% were not meeting the specified guidelines for effluent treatment and dispersal. The main focus of this research was to incorporate strong scientific knowledge into an integrated risk assessment process to allow suitable management practices to be set in place to mitigate the inherent risks. To achieve this, research was undertaken focusing on three main aspects involved with the performance and management of OWTS. Firstly, an investigation into the suitability of soil for providing appropriate effluent renovation was conducted. This involved detailed soil investigations, laboratory analysis and the use of multivariate statistical methods for analysing soil information. The outcomes of these investigations were developed into a framework for assessing soil suitability for effluent renovation. This formed the basis for the assessment of OWTS siting and design risks employed in the developed risk framework. Secondly, an assessment of the environmental and public health risks was performed specifically related the release of contaminants from OWTS. This involved detailed groundwater and surface water sampling and analysis to assess the current and potential risks of contamination throughout the Gold Coast region. Additionally, the assessment of public health risk incorporated the use of bacterial source tracking methods to identify the different sources of fecal contamination within monitored regions. Antibiotic resistance pattern analysis was utilised to determine the extent of human faecal contamination, with the outcomes utilised for providing a more indicative public health assessment. Finally, the outcomes of both the soil suitability assessment and ground and surface water monitoring was utilised for the development of the integrated risk framework. The research outcomes achieved through this project enabled the primary research aims and objects to be accomplished. This in turn would enable Gold Coast City Council to provide more appropriate assessment and management guidelines based on robust scientific knowledge which will ultimately ensure that the potential environmental and public health impacts resulting from on-site wastewater treatment is minimised. As part of the implementation of suitable management strategies, a critical point monitoring program (CPM) was formulated. This entailed the identification of the key critical parameters that contribute to the characterised risks at monitored locations within the study area. The CPM will allow more direct procedures to be implemented, targeting the specific hazards at sensitive areas throughout Gold Coast region.

Visual servoing approach to collision avoidance for aircraft

This paper presents a reactive Sense and Avoid approach using spherical image-based visual servoing. Avoidance of point targets in the lateral or vertical plane is achieved without requiring an estimate of range. Simulated results for static and dynamic targets are provided using a realistic model of a small fixed wing unmanned aircraft.

Evaluating stakeholder satisfaction during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects : a fuzzy approach

Numerous different and sometimes discrepant interests can be affected, both positively and negatively, throughout the course of a major infrastructure and construction (MIC) project. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of the stakeholders involved has resulted in many project failures. One way to address this issue is through a participatory approach to project decision making. Whether the participation mechanism is effective or not depends largely on the client/owner. This paper provides a means of systematically evaluating the effectiveness of the public participation exercise, or even the whole project, through the measurement of stakeholder satisfaction. Since the process of satisfaction measurement is complicated and uncertain, requiring approximate reasoning involving human intuition, a fuzzy approach is adopted. From this, a multi-factor hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to facilitate the evaluation of satisfaction in both single stakeholder group and overall MIC project stakeholders.

Beyond barcoding : a mitochondrial genomics approach to molecular phylogenetics and diagnostics of blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Members of the Calliphoridae (blowflies) are significant for medical and veterinary management, due to the ability of some species to consume living flesh as larvae, and for forensic investigations due to the ability of others to develop in corpses. Due to the difficulty of accurately identifying larval blowflies to species there is a need for DNA-based diagnostics for this family, however the widely used DNA-barcoding marker, cox1, has been shown to fail for several groups within this family. Additionally, many phylogenetic relationships within the Calliphoridae are still unresolved, particularly deeper level relationships. Sequencing whole mt genomes has been demonstrated both as an effective method for identifying the most informative diagnostic markers and for resolving phylogenetic relationships. Twenty-seven complete, or nearly so, mt genomes were sequenced representing 13 species, seven genera and four calliphorid subfamilies and a member of the related family Tachinidae. PCR and sequencing primers developed for sequencing one calliphorid species could be reused to sequence related species within the same superfamily with success rates ranging from 61% to 100%, demonstrating the speed and efficiency with which an mt genome dataset can be assembled. Comparison of molecular divergences for each of the 13 protein-coding genes and 2 ribosomal RNA genes, at a range of taxonomic scales identified novel targets for developing as diagnostic markers which were 117–200% more variable than the markers which have been used previously in calliphorids. Phylogenetic analysis of whole mt genome sequences resulted in much stronger support for family and subfamily-level relationships. The Calliphoridae are polyphyletic, with the Polleninae more closely related to the Tachinidae, and the Sarcophagidae are the sister group of the remaining calliphorids. Within the Calliphoridae, there was strong support for the monophyly of the Chrysomyinae and Luciliinae and for the sister-grouping of Luciliinae with Calliphorinae. Relationships within Chrysomya were not well resolved. Whole mt genome data, supported the previously demonstrated paraphyly of Lucilia cuprina with respect to L. sericata and allowed us to conclude that it is due to hybrid introgression prior to the last common ancestor of modern sericata populations, rather than due to recent hybridisation, nuclear pseudogenes or incomplete lineage sorting.

Planning for sustainable urban futures: an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities have shown increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change, and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning, human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner and ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, this chapter briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, it presents a conceptual framework for a new methodology for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach.

A pragmatic approach to intellectual property and development : a case study of the Jordanian copyright law in the internet age

On October 4, 2004, Brazil and Argentina requested that WIPO adopt a development-oriented approach to IP and to reconsider its work in relation to developing countries. In October, 2007, WIPO member States adopted a historic decision for the benefit of developing countries, to establish a WIPO Development Agenda. Although there have been several studies related to IP and development that call for IP laws in developing countries to be development-friendly, there is little research that attempts to provide developing countries with practical measures to achieve that goal. This article takes the copyright law in Jordan as a case study and shows how, in practical terms, a pro-development-oriented approach could be implemented in the copyright laws of developing countries. It provides specific recommendations for developing countries to ensure that their IP laws are aligned with and serve their social and economic development objectives.

Reframing evaluation of learning and teaching: An approach to change

Evaluation practices in the Higher Education sector have been criticised for having unclear purpose and principles; ignoring the complexity and changing nature of learning and teaching and the environments in which they occur; relying almost exclusively on student ratings of teachers working in classroom settings; lacking reliability and validity; using data for inappropriate purposes; and focusing on accountability and marketing rather than the improvement of learning and teaching. In response to similar criticism from stakeholders, in 2011 Queensland University of Technology (QUT) began a project which aims to reframe the organisation’s approach to the evaluation of learning and teaching. This paper describes the existing evaluation system; the emergence and early development of the project; and formulation of a conceptual framework identifying key dimensions of evaluation. It then compares the draft framework with other conceptualisations and models of evaluation identified in the literature, to determine its validity and suitability for supporting QUT’s plans for the future. Overall, the paper represents a structured evaluation of the REFRAME project at a particular point in its lifecycle. Given that the project follows an evidence based, practice-led process and applies an ongoing action research cycle, the findings are presented in the belief that QUT’s experience is broadly applicable to other institutions which may be contemplating change in relation to evaluation of learning and teaching.

Health complaint commissions in Australia : time for a national approach to data collection

Health complaint statistics are important for identifying problems and bringing about improvements to health care provided by health service providers and to the wider health care system. This paper overviews complaints handling by the eight Australian state and territory health complaint entities, based on an analysis of data from their annual reports. The analysis shows considerable variation between jurisdictions in the ways complaint data are defined, collected and recorded. Complaints from the public are an important accountability mechanism and open a window on service quality. The lack of a national approach leads to fragmentation of complaint data and a lost opportunity to use national data to assist policy development and identify the main areas causing consumers to complain. We need a national approach to complaints data collection in order to better respond to patients’ concerns.

Deriving a preference-based measure for cancer using the EORTC QLQ-C30 : a confirmatory versus exploratory approach

Background: To derive preference-based measures from various condition-specific descriptive health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measures. A general 2-stage method is evolved: 1) an item from each domain of the HRQOL measure is selected to form a health state classification system (HSCS); 2) a sample of health states is valued and an algorithm derived for estimating the utility of all possible health states. The aim of this analysis was to determine whether confirmatory or exploratory factor analysis (CFA, EFA) should be used to derive a cancer-specific utility measure from the EORTC QLQ-C30. Methods: Data were collected with the QLQ-C30v3 from 356 patients receiving palliative radiotherapy for recurrent or metastatic cancer (various primary sites). The dimensional structure of the QLQ-C30 was tested with EFA and CFA, the latter based on a conceptual model (the established domain structure of the QLQ-C30: physical, role, emotional, social and cognitive functioning, plus several symptoms) and clinical considerations (views of both patients and clinicians about issues relevant to HRQOL in cancer). The dimensions determined by each method were then subjected to item response theory, including Rasch analysis. Results: CFA results generally supported the proposed conceptual model, with residual correlations requiring only minor adjustments (namely, introduction of two cross-loadings) to improve model fit (increment χ2(2) = 77.78, p < .001). Although EFA revealed a structure similar to the CFA, some items had loadings that were difficult to interpret. Further assessment of dimensionality with Rasch analysis aligned the EFA dimensions more closely with the CFA dimensions. Three items exhibited floor effects (>75% observation at lowest score), 6 exhibited misfit to the Rasch model (fit residual > 2.5), none exhibited disordered item response thresholds, 4 exhibited DIF by gender or cancer site. Upon inspection of the remaining items, three were considered relatively less clinically important than the remaining nine. Conclusions: CFA appears more appropriate than EFA, given the well-established structure of the QLQ-C30 and its clinical relevance. Further, the confirmatory approach produced more interpretable results than the exploratory approach. Other aspects of the general method remain largely the same. The revised method will be applied to a large number of data sets as part of the international and interdisciplinary project to develop a multi-attribute utility instrument for cancer (MAUCa).

Targeting aurora kinases : a novel approach to curb the growth and chemoresistance of androgen refractory prostate cancer

Aurora Kinase (AK) based therapy targeting AK-A & B is effective against some cancers. We have explored its potential against previously unreported incurable, metastatic androgen depletion independent Prostate Cancer (ADIPC). We used androgen sensitive (AS) and ADI lines derived from Transgenic Adenocarcinoma of the Mouse Prostate (TRAMP) mice. The relevance of this model was unequivocally established through focussed array, quantitative PCR and western blotting studies; significantly greater alteration of genes (fold change and number) representing major cancer pathways was shown in ADI cells compared to AS lines. A marked enhancement of in vivo growth of the ADI subline showing the greatest degree of gene modulations [TRAMP C1 (TC1)-T5: TC1-T5] reflected this. In contrast to the parental AS TC1 line, TC1-T5 cells grew with 100% incidence in the prostate, as lung pseudometastases and migrated to the bone and other soft tissues. The potential involvement of AKs in this transition was indicated by the significant upregulation of AK-A/B and their downstream regulators, survivin and phosphorylated-histone H3 in TC1-T5 cells compared to TC1 cells. This led to enhanced sensitivity of TC1-T5 cells to the pan-AK inhibitor, VX680 and to significant reduction in in vivo tumour growth rates when AK-A and/or B were downregulated in TC1-T5 cells. This cell growth inhibition was markedly enhanced when both AKs were downregulated and also led to substantially greater sensitivity of these cells to docetaxel, the only chemotherapeutic with activity against ADI PC. Finally, use of VX680 with docetaxel led to impressive synergies suggesting promise for treating clinical ADI metastatic PC.

An integrated approach to enhance sustainability in industrialised building systems

Building prefabrication is known as Industrialised Building Systems (IBS) in Malaysia. This construction method possesses unique characteristics that are central to sustainable construction. For example, offsite construction enables efficient management of construction wastage by identifying major causes of waste arising during both the design and construction stages. These causes may then be eliminated by the improvement process in IBS component's manufacturing. However, current decisions on using IBS are typically financial driven and hinder the wider ranged adoption. In addition, current IBS misconceptions and the failure of rating schemes in evaluating the sustainability of IBS affect its implementation. A new approach is required to provide better understanding on the sustainability potential of IBS among stakeholders. Such approach should also help project the outcomes of each levels of decision-making to respond to social, economy and environmental challenges. This paper presents interim findings of research aimed at developing a framework for sustainable IBS development and suggests a more holistic approach to achieve sustainability. A framework of embedding sustainability factors is considered in three main phases of IBS construction; 1) Pre-construction, 2) Construction and 3) Post-construction phase. SWOT analysis was used to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved in the IBS implementations. The action plans are formulated from the analysis of sustainable objectives. This approach will show where and how sustainability should be integrated to improve IBS construction. A mix of quantitative and qualitative methodology was used in this research to explore the potential of IBS in integrating sustainability. The tools used in the study are questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Outcomes from these tools lead to the identification of viable approaches involving 18 critical factors to improve sustainability in IBS constructions. Finally, guidelines for decision-making are being developed to provide a useful source of information and support to mutual benefit of the stakeholders in integrating sustainability issues and concepts into IBS applications.