Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

The political in the age of the digital: propositions for empirical investigation

This article establishes whether there is a case for revising traditional accounts of politics and the public sphere given the ways in which digital technology is now being used in Western and non-Western settings to engage people politically. The article presents a case for framing this inquiry in terms of imaginaries. It then argues for a new political imaginary which helps to specify what is required for deliberative democratic practice in a way that shifts us away from the dominant liberal-utilitarian political imaginary that currently informs the political value systems of most Western nations. Drawing on the work of key political theorists such as Habermas and Dahlgren, five propositions or conditions for deliberative practice are identified that can be used in empirical investigation to help determine the democratic capacity and potential of new political communication and civic spaces being opened by means of digital media.

Inducible resistance to maize streak virus

Maize streak virus (MSV), which causes maize streak disease (MSD), is the major viral pathogenic constraint on maize production in Africa. Type member of the Mastrevirus genus in the family Geminiviridae, MSV has a 2.7 kb, single-stranded circular DNA genome encoding a coat protein, movement protein, and the two replication-associated proteins Rep and RepA. While we have previously developed MSV-resistant transgenic maize lines constitutively expressing ‘‘dominant negative mutant’’ versions of the MSV Rep, the only transgenes we could use were those that caused no developmental defects during the regeneration of plants in tissue culture. A better transgene expression system would be an inducible one, where resistance-conferring transgenes are expressed only in MSV-infected cells. However, most known inducible transgene expression systems are hampered by background or ‘‘leaky’’ expression in the absence of the inducer. Here we describe an adaptation of the recently developed INPACT system to express MSV-derived resistance genes in cell culture. Split gene cassette constructs (SGCs) were developed containing three different transgenes in combination with three different promoter sequences. In each SGC, the transgene was split such that it would be translatable only in the presence of an infecting MSV’s replication associated protein. We used a quantitative real-time PCR assay to show that one of these SGCs (pSPLITrepIII-Rb-Ubi) inducibly inhibits MSV replication as efficiently as does a constitutively expressed transgene that has previously proven effective in protecting transgenic maize from MSV. In addition, in our cell-culture based assay pSPLITrepIII-Rb-Ubi inhibited replication of diverse MSV strains, and even, albeit to a lesser extent, of a different mastrevirus species. The application of this new technology to MSV resistance in maize could allow a better, more acceptable product.

Subduing power : Indigenous sovereignty matters

The concept of ‘power’ can refer to the institutionalised and embodied capacity and right to dominate through a variety of means including ideology, politics, science, religion, class, race, gender and sexuality. Early feminist theorising within the West, for example, conceptualised the structure and nature of power as being connected to male domination and authority within society. Marxists, alternately, argue it is the ruling class that holds power and exercises it as owners of the means of production. In a general sense, we can say that as feminists have tied power to patriarchy and Marxists’ definitions of power have been connected to capitalism. The essays in this section, though, are less concerned with such totalising conceptualisations of power than they are with processes of interpellation or subject creation within dominant or dominating discursive spaces.1 Not power as such, but its many workings and apparatuses.

Weight and weight change following breast cancer : evidence from a prospective, population-based, breast cancer cohort study

Background: While weight gain following breast cancer is considered common, results supporting these findings are dated. This work describes changes in body weight following breast cancer over 72 months, compares weight with normative data and explores whether weight changes over time are associated with personal, diagnostic, treatment or behavioral characteristics. Methods: A population-based sample of 287 Australian women diagnosed with early-stage invasive breast cancer was assessed prospectively at six, 12, 18 and 72 months post-surgery. Weight was clinically measured and linear mixed models were used to explore associations between weight and participant characteristics (collected via self-administered questionnaire). Those with BMI changes of one or more units were considered to have experienced clinically significant changes in weight. Results: More than half (57%) of participants were overweight or obese at 6 months post-surgery, and by 72 months post-surgery 68% of women were overweight or obese. Among those who gained more weight than age-matched norms, clinically significant weight gain between 6 and 18 months and 6 and 72 months post-surgery was observed in 24% and 39% of participants, respectively (median [range] weight gain: 3.9kg [2.0-11.3kg] and 5.2kg [0.6-28.7], respectively). Clinically-significant weight losses were observed in up to 24% of the sample (median [range] weight loss between 6 and 72 months post-surgery: -6.4kg [-1.9--24.6kg]). More extensive lymph node removal, being treated on the non-dominant side, receiving radiation therapy and lower physical activity levels at 6 months was associated with higher body weights post-breast cancer (group differences >3kg; all p<0.05). Conclusions: While average weight gain among breast cancer survivors in the long-term is small, subgroups of women experience greater gains linked with adverse health and above that experienced by age-matched counterparts. Weight change post-breast cancer is a contemporary public health issue and the integration of healthy weight education and support into standard breast cancer care has potential to significantly improve the length and quality of cancer survivorship.

Seeing it differently: physical education, teacher education and the possibilities of personal construct theory

The celebrated work of Lortie (1975) alerted teacher educators to the extended period of 'apprenticeship' that student teachers have been through before they arrive at teacher education programmes. The subjective implicit theories (Marland, 1992) developed by prospective teachers are shaped by their lifeworld experiences at school and in the case of physical education teachers, their experiences in sport. The biography of physical education teacher education (PETE) students tends to be characterised by ecto-mesomorphic individuals who have been socialised by the rigours of highly competitive sport (Gore, 1990; Macdonald, 1992; Rossi, 1996). We can add to this, the requirements of teacher preparation in physical education which for the most part are dominated by the traditions and rhetoric of the 'natural' bio-physical sciences; largely a legacy of Henry's (1964) work on physical education as an academic discipline, as well as that of Abernathy and Waltz the same year (Abernathy & Waltz, 1964). In the United Kingdom, Curl (1973) further advanced the argument in an attempt to justify human movement as an independent field of study with its own corpus of knowledge. It is little wonder then, that the dominant pedagogical discourse in physical education is, as Tinning (1991) discusses, one of performance pedagogy (see also Hendry, 1986 for an earlier discussion). The knowledge required to support such a discourse could be described as 'official' (Apple, 1993) and it assumes such status by virtue of the power appropriated by and bestowed upon the scientific community in PETE (Macdonald & Tinning, 1995; Sparkes, 1989, 1993). However, there are social reifiers too, and these tend to relate to the social construction of the body (Kirk, 1993; Kirk & Spiller, 1994; Gilroy, 1994) and what Tinning (1985) has termed the Cult of Slenderness. Furthermore the 'slender image' has become a signifier of 'good health'. This is inextricably linked to what might be considered as a health triplex—'exercise = fitness = health' (see Kirk & Colquhoun, 1989; Tinning & Kirk, 1991) which in Australia, underpins curriculum packages such as Daily Physical Education which teachers (often including physical education primary...

Children’s physical activity, health and physical education in isolated rural contexts : the views of parent educators in Queensland

This paper describes the views of parent educators of their children’s levels and types of physical activity. The study was conducted at two mini-schools in western Queensland. These are occasion where students who undertake formal education through various Schools Distance Education, come together for a week of educational activity. Parents (mostly mothers) were interviewed using a semi-structured approach. The interview data were then analysed for dominant themes using a constant comparison method. The emergent themes related to nutrition and physical activity. Within the physical activity theme, notions of the great outdoors, work and organised sport skill development also emerged.

Teaching young queers a lesson: How police teach lessons about non-heteronormativity in public spaces

This paper analyses qualitative data with LGBT young people to think about police-LGBT youth interactions, and the outcomes of these interactions, as pedagogical moments for LGBT young people, police, and public onlookers. Although the data in this paper could be interpreted in line with dominant ways of thinking about LGBT young people and police, as criminalization for instance, the data suggested something more complex. This paper employs a theoretical framework informed by poststructural theories, queer theories, and pedagogical theories, to theorise LGBT youth-police interactions as instruction about managing police relationships in public spaces. The analysis shows how LGBT young people are learning from police encounters about the need to avoid ‘looking queer’ to minimise police harm.

Is biggest best? A comparative analysis of the financial viability of the Brisbane City Council

Structural reform through forced mergers has been a dominant feature of Australian local government for decades. Advocates of compulsory consolidation contend that larger municipalities perform better across a wide range of attributes, including financial sustainability. While empirical scholars of local government have invested considerable effort into investigating these claims, no-one has yet examined the performance of Brisbane City Council against other local authorities, despite the fact that it is by far the largest council in Australia. This paper seeks to remedy this neglect by comparing Brisbane with Sydney City Council, an average of six south east Queensland councils and an average of ten metropolitan New South Wales councils against four measures of financial performance over the period 2008 to 2011.

On the use of optical flow for scene change detection and description

We propose the use of optical flow information as a method for detecting and describing changes in the environment, from the perspective of a mobile camera. We analyze the characteristics of the optical flow signal and demonstrate how robust flow vectors can be generated and used for the detection of depth discontinuities and appearance changes at key locations. To successfully achieve this task, a full discussion on camera positioning, distortion compensation, noise filtering, and parameter estimation is presented. We then extract statistical attributes from the flow signal to describe the location of the scene changes. We also employ clustering and dominant shape of vectors to increase the descriptiveness. Once a database of nodes (where a node is a detected scene change) and their corresponding flow features is created, matching can be performed whenever nodes are encountered, such that topological localization can be achieved. We retrieve the most likely node according to the Mahalanobis and Chi-square distances between the current frame and the database. The results illustrate the applicability of the technique for detecting and describing scene changes in diverse lighting conditions, considering indoor and outdoor environments and different robot platforms.

Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

Associations between ghrelin and ghrelin receptor polymorphisms and cancer in Caucasian populations: A meta-analysis

Background There is growing evidence that the ghrelin axis, including ghrelin (GHRL) and its receptor, the growth hormone secretagogue receptor (GHSR), play a role in cancer progression. Ghrelin gene and ghrelin receptor gene polymorphisms have been reported to have a range of effects in cancer, from increased risk, to protection from cancer, or having no association. In this study we aimed to clarify the role of ghrelin and ghrelin receptor polymorphisms in cancer by performing a meta-analysis of published case–control studies. We conducted searches of the literature published up to January 2013 in MEDLINE using the PubMed search engine. Individual data on 8,430 cases and 14,008 controls from six case–control studies of an all Caucasian population were evaluated for three ghrelin gene (GHRL; rs696217, rs4684677, rs2075356) and one ghrelin receptor (GHSR; rs572169) polymorphism in breast cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Results In the overall analysis, homozygous and recessive associations indicated that the minor alleles of rs696217 and rs2075356 GHRL polymorphisms conferred reduced cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] 0.61-0.78). The risk was unchanged for breast cancer patients when analysed separately (OR 0.73-0.83). In contrast, the rs4684677 GHRL and the rs572169 GHSR polymorphisms conferred increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.97-1.98, p = 0.08 and OR 1.42-1.43, p = 0.08, respectively). All dominant and co-dominant effects showed null effects (OR 0.96-1.05), except for the rs572169 co-dominant effect, with borderline increased risk (OR 1.08, p = 0.05). Conclusions This study suggests that the rs696217 and rs2075356 ghrelin gene (GHRL) polymorphisms may protect carriers against breast cancer, and the rs4684677 GHRL and rs572169 GHSR polymorphisms may increase the risk among carriers. In addition, larger studies are required to confirm these findings.

Automotive modal lock-in: The role of path dependence and large socio-economic regimes in market failure

This paper addresses less recognised factors which influence the diffusion of a particular technology. While an innovation’s attributes and performance are paramount, many fail because of external factors which favour an alternative. This paper, with theoretic input from diffusion, lock-in and path-dependency, presents a qualitative study of external factors that influenced the evolution of transportation in USA. This historical account reveals how one technology and its emergent systems become dominant while other choices are overridden by socio-political, economic and technological interests which include not just the manufacturing and service industries associated with the automobile but also government and market stakeholders. Termed here as a large socio-economic regime (LSER),its power in ensuring lock-in and continued path-dependency is shown to pass through three stages, weakening eventually as awareness improves. The study extends to transport trends in China, Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia and they all show the dominant role of an LSER. As transportation policy is increasingly accountable to address both demand and environmental concerns and innovators search for solutions, this paper presents important knowledge for innovators, marketers and policy makers for commercial and societal reasons, especially when negative externalities associated with an incumbent transportation technology may lead to market failure.

Lecturing for non-law background students: Assessing the cognitive load of case and legislation-based lecturing approaches

Lecturing is a traditional method for teaching in discipline-based teaching environments and its success in legal discipline depends upon its alignment with learner backgrounds, learning objectives and the lecturing approaches utilised in the classes. In a situation where students do not have any prior knowledge of the given discipline that requires a particular lecturing approach, a mismatch in such an alignment would place learner knowledge acquisition into a challenging situation. From this perspective, this study tests the suitability of two dominant lecturing approaches—the case and the law-based lecturing approaches. It finds that a lecturer should put more emphasis on the case-based approach while lecturing to non-law background business students at the postgraduate level, provided that such an emphasis should be relative to the cognitive ability of the students and their motivation for learning law units.