Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Predicting single-vehicle fatal crashes for two-lane rural highways in Southeastern United States

The rural two-lane highway in the southeastern United States is frequently associated with a disproportionate number of serious and fatal crashes and as such remains a focus of considerable safety research. The Georgia Department of Transportation spearheaded a regional fatal crash analysis to identify various safety performances of two-lane rural highways and to offer guidance for identifying suitable countermeasures with which to mitigate fatal crashes. The fatal crash data used in this study were compiled from Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The database, developed for an earlier study, included 557 randomly selected fatal crashes from 1997 or 1998 or both (this varied by state). Each participating state identified the candidate crashes and performed physical or video site visits to construct crash databases with enhance site-specific information. Motivated by the hypothesis that single- and multiple-vehicle crashes arise from fundamentally different circumstances, the research team applied binary logit models to predict the probability that a fatal crash is a single-vehicle run-off-road fatal crash given roadway design characteristics, roadside environment features, and traffic conditions proximal to the crash site. A wide variety of factors appears to influence or be associated with single-vehicle fatal crashes. In a model transferability assessment, the authors determined that lane width, horizontal curvature, and ambient lighting are the only three significant variables that are consistent for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes for all study locations.

WaterFieldWork : a working lexicon for critical refugia in arid landscapes

Algebuckina Waterhole exists as a permanent waterhole near a north-south dirt road and an old trainline on the Oodnadatta Track - lines that once opened up the arid lands of central South Australia but are now bypassed. It also exists as the final and largest freshwater waterhole at the end of the Neales River system. It is a critical biodiversity site, a cultural place and a working environment. It is seen to need a resilient management plan that encompasses diverse interests and impacts. Its managers sense that the theories and practices emerging out of landscape disciplinary systems may be of help. Work-in-progress research towards a management methodology are presented through posing scenarios on how landscape thinking and design, informed by an emergent textual and visual lexicon for water landscapes, can intersect with scientific fieldwork to produce useful and transferable outcomes for Algebuckina.

Queensland Arts Council road trip : an examination of in-schools touring productions (2005-2008)

This research project explores the nature of In-School Touring Productions that are presented in Queensland classrooms by Queensland Arts Council (QAC). The research emerged from my background as a drama teacher working on secondment at QAC in the Ontour inschools department. The research follows the development of a new production Power Trip: the Adventures of Watty and Volt. The research was guided by the key question: What are some of the production and pragmatic issues that relate to In-school Touring Productions and in what ways do QAC’s Ontour inschools productions offer learning experiences? This research involved the creation of three intersecting elements: (1) a 45 minute personal documentary film, 8 Times Around the Equator. The film follows my enthusiasms for this hybrid form of theatre which developed from my childhood, teaching practice and finally in my role at QAC; (2) a multimedia DVD, Queensland Arts Council 2008 inschools Season, which presents a series of short video clips promoting QAC’s Ontour inschools program; and finally (3) this exegetical paper, Queensland Arts Council Road Trip: an Examination of In-Schools Touring Productions (2005-2008). This exegesis supports the multimedia presentations and provides additional descriptions of QAC's Ontour inschools productions which are contextualised within the history of QAC and the field of Youth Theatre generally. During the project I observed 37 QAC productions and analysed them against set criteria and as a result four types of learning experiences were identified: • Category X: X-periencing the Art Form – providing students with exposure to traditional forms of main stage theatre; • Category L: Learning Through the Art Form – communicating information using an art form to educate. For example using comedy, clowning or slapstick to teach science; • Category U: Unpacking the Art Form – deconstructing art forms and providing students with increased awareness and appreciation; and • Category M: M-bodying the Art Form – workshops and artist residencies that allow students to create their own work. The creative works (documentary film and DVDs) combine to make up 65% of the project. This exegetical paper concludes the final 35% required for submission.

Digital image processing techniques for pavement macro-texture analysis

Road surface macro-texture is an indicator used to determine the skid resistance levels in pavements. Existing methods of quantifying macro-texture include the sand patch test and the laser profilometer. These methods utilise the 3D information of the pavement surface to extract the average texture depth. Recently, interest in image processing techniques as a quantifier of macro-texture has arisen, mainly using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). This paper reviews the FFT method, and then proposes two new methods, one using the autocorrelation function and the other using wavelets. The methods are tested on pictures obtained from a pavement surface extending more than 2km's. About 200 images were acquired from the surface at approx. 10m intervals from a height 80cm above ground. The results obtained from image analysis methods using the FFT, the autocorrelation function and wavelets are compared with sensor measured texture depth (SMTD) data obtained from the same paved surface. The results indicate that coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.8 are obtained when up to 10% of outliers are removed.

Segmentation of scenes of mobile objects and demonstrable backgrounds

In this paper we present a real-time foreground–background segmentation algorithm that exploits the following observation (very often satisfied by a static camera positioned high in its environment). If a blob moves on a pixel p that had not changed its colour significantly for a few frames, then p was probably part of the background when its colour was static. With this information we are able to update differentially pixels believed to be background. This work is relevant to autonomous minirobots, as they often navigate in buildings where smart surveillance cameras could communicate wirelessly with them. A by-product of the proposed system is a mask of the image regions which are demonstrably background. Statistically significant tests show that the proposed method has a better precision and recall rates than the state of the art foreground/background segmentation algorithm of the OpenCV computer vision library.

Variability of input parameters related to pollutants build-up in stormwater quality modelling

The variability of input parameters is the most important source of overall model uncertainty. Therefore, an in-depth understanding of the variability is essential for uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality model outputs. This paper presents the outcomes of a research study which investigated the variability of pollutants build-up characteristics on road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary highly even within the same land use. Additionally, industrial land use showed relatively higher variability of maximum build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution, whilst the commercial land use displayed a relatively higher variability of pollutant-solid ratio. Among the various build-up parameters analysed, D50 (volume-median-diameter) displayed the relatively highest variability for all three land uses.

A probability-based approach for assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties

Skid resistance is a condition parameter characterising the contribution that a road makes to the friction between a road surface and a vehicle tyre. Studies of traffic crash histories around the world have consistently found that a disproportionate number of crashes occur where the road surface has a low level of surface friction and/or surface texture, particularly when the road surface is wet. Various research results have been published over many years and have tried to quantify the influence of skid resistance on accident occurrence and to characterise a correlation between skid resistance and accident frequency. Most of the research studies used simple statistical correlation methods in analysing skid resistance and crash data.----- ------ Preliminary findings of a systematic and extensive literature search conclude that there is rarely a single causation factor in a crash. Findings from research projects do affirm various levels of correlation between skid resistance and accident occurrence. Studies indicate that the level of skid resistance at critical places such as intersections, curves, roundabouts, ramps and approaches to pedestrian crossings needs to be well maintained.----- ----- Management of risk is an integral aspect of the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) strategy for managing its infrastructure assets. The risk-based approach has been used in many areas of infrastructure engineering. However, very limited information is reported on using risk-based approach to mitigate crash rates related to road surface. Low skid resistance and surface texture may increase the risk of traffic crashes.----- ----- The objectives of this paper are to explore current issues of skid resistance in relation to crashes, to provide a framework of probability-based approach to be adopted by QDMR in assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties, and to explain why the probability-based approach is a suitable tool for QDMR in order to reduce accident rates due to skid resistance.

An analysis of the variability in Queensland WiM data

The Queensland Department of Main Roads uses Weigh-in-Motion (WiM) devices to covertly monitor (at highway speed) axle mass, axle configurations and speed of heavy vehicles on the road network. Such data is critical for the planning and design of the road network. Some of the data appears excessively variable. The current work considers the nature, magnitude and possible causes of WiM data variability. Over fifty possible causes of variation in WiM data have been identified in the literature. Data exploration has highlighted five basic types of variability specifically: ----- • cycling, both diurnal and annual;----- • consistent but unreasonable data;----- • data jumps;----- • variations between data from opposite sides of the one road; and ----- • non-systematic variations.----- This work is part of wider research into procedures to eliminate or mitigate the influence of WiM data variability.

AITPM national newsletter president's report April 2010

Well, it has been Clem 7 month here in Brisbane and my impression is “so far, so good!” For those of you who know Brisbane, the four lane twin Clem Jones Tunnel (M7) is approximately 4.5km long, and connects Ipswich Road (A7) at the Princess Alexandra Hospital on the south side with Bowen Bridge Road (A3) at the Royal Brisbane Hospital on the north side. There are also south access ramps to the Pacific Motorway and east access ramps to Shafston Avenue (headed to/from Wynnum). Brisbanites have been enjoying a three week no-toll taste test, and I paced through it one evening with minimal fuss. The tunnel seems to have eased the congestion at the Stanley Street on-ramp to the Pacific Motorway quite a bit, and Ipswich Road – Main Street through the ‘Gabba. One must watch the signage carefully, but once we get used to the infrastructure, this will not likely be problematic. It will be interesting to see how traffic behaves when the system settles after tolling, which has likely commenced by the time you’re reading. I believe a passenger car toll is about $4.20 one way but saves about 24 signalised intersection pass-throughs.

Whole life cycle costing for Malaysia residential property development : the cultural environment

As knowledge of the residential development costing impact on resource and budgeting use increase, developers are moving towards more sustainable solution by implementing whole life cycle costing. Property management requires an understanding of infrastructure management, service life planning and quality management. Today, people are beginning to realize that effective property management in high-rise residential property can sustain the property value and maintain high returns on their investment. The continuous growth of high-rise residential properties indicates that there is a need for an effective property management system to provide a sustainable high-rise residential property development. For such reasons, this paper attempts to study the culture that have been applied due the residential property development in Malaysia as to improve to the best and sustainable practice in providing the best cost effectiveness management system in residential property development.

AITPM national newsletter President's report May 2010

We’ve had a bit of sticker shock in these parts. Well, apparently. Since my last missive, Brisbane’s Clem Jones Tunnel which was initially free now has a toll, at least partially, at the introductory rate of $2.95 for a one-way car ride between 5a.m. and midnight – free overnight. From 9 May 2010 the toll will be $4.28. Since the introductory toll was introduced, use of the tunnel appears to have declined somewhat – no surprise to transport professionals I suppose. An additional factor may have been that the “novelty value” of driving through the tunnel for free had worn off. This demonstrates to me that much of the community may still see the use of road infrastructure as a rite of passage, with only some actually weighing up the true value of their travel time and vehicle wear and tear against their out of pocket (or onto credit card) cost. Thus, we’re in pioneering times and the role of transport economics in the overall transport infrastructure planning realm is of considerable importance – especially as much of the new big ticket infrastructure is likely to be tolled into the future. The Queensland Premier, Anna Bligh, made poignant commentary about Brisbane City Council’s tunnel use in that such infrastructure is built for future times and not just as a quick fix for current traffic problems. My expectation is that once Airport Link, which is really the northern half of the corridor, opens in 2012, there will be a significant spike in Clem7 usage.

Technology, design and process innovation in the built environment

Buildings and infrastructure represent principal assets of any national economy as well as prime sources of environmental degradation. Making them more sustainable represents a key challenge for the construction, planning and design industries and governments at all levels; and the rapid urbanisation of the 21st century has turned this into a global challenge. This book embodies the results of a major research programme by members of the Australia Co-operative Research Centre for Construction Innovation and its global partners, presented for an international audience of construction researchers, senior professionals and advanced students. It covers four themes, applied to regeneration as well as to new build, and within the overall theme of Innovation: Sustainable Materials and Manufactures, focusing on building material products, their manufacture and assembly – and the reduction of their ecological ‘fingerprints’, the extension of their service lives, and their re-use and recyclability. It also explores the prospects for applying the principles of the assembly line. Virtual Design, Construction and Management, viewed as increasing sustainable development through automation, enhanced collaboration (such as virtual design teams), real time BL performance assessment during design, simulation of the construction process, life-cycle management of project information (zero information loss) risk minimisation, and increased potential for innovation and value adding. Integrating Design, Construction and Facility Management over the Project Life Cycle, by converging ICT, design science engineering and sustainability science. Integration across spatial scales, enabling building–infrastructure synergies (such as water and energy efficiency). Convergences between IT and design and operational processes are also viewed as a key platform increased sustainability.

A tale of six fish: achieving social presence through discussion forums in an offline learning environment

It is widely held, through the Socratic tradition, that discussion is at the heart of learning. Moderated discussion forums have been shown to replicate the debate, argument and verbal defence of viewpoints that we have come to expect in face-to-face learning environments and that we generally accept to underpin learning. While much has been written about discussion forums in educational settings, particularly in how to moderate and promote effective interaction with students at a distance, this paper takes a different approach. It looks at how forums may be used to support face-to-face learning in the contemporary context of the massification of on-campus classes. Further to this, it will argue for discussion forums as an indicator of social presence in the learning environment. It will cautiously conclude that, through purposeful design, this form of asynchronous communication has a valuable role to play in creating a positive and supportive environment for students entering university. Discussion forums are tools with a versatility yet to be fully exploited.

Achieving a responsive industrial relations environment for construction industry workers – a project alliancing case study

This paper outlines how the project agreement operating on the Australian National Museum project in Canberra, Australia facilitated a responsible and responsive workplace environment for construction workers. A project alliancing approach was adopted and designed to encourage industrial relations innovation in the workplace. The trigger for this approach was the perceived success of the alliancing working arrangements between key project delivery teams and a desire to extend this arrangement to subcontractors, suppliers and the workforce. Changes in the Australian workplace relations environment and introduction of a national code of practice for the Australian construction industry provided impetus for reaching a new type of workplace agreement. The workplace culture and characteristics of relationships formed between workers and management on that site shaped the agreed terms and conditions of work. It also spurred the pursuit of innovative approaches to project delivery from a technology, management and workplace culture perspective.