Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models. ----- ----- Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.

The impact of changes to the graduated driver licensing program in Queensland, Australia on the experiences of learner drivers

Purpose: Graduated driver licensing (GDL) has been introduced in numerous jurisdictions in Australia and internationally in an attempt to ameliorate the significantly greater risk of death and injury for young novice drivers arising from road crashes. The GDL program in Queensland, Australia, was extensively modified in July 2007. This paper reports the driving and licensing experiences of Learner drivers progressing through the current-GDL program, and compares them to the experiences of Learners who progressed through the former-GDL program. ----- ----- Method: Young drivers (n = 1032, 609 females, 423 males) aged 17 to 19 years (M = 17.43, SD = 0.67) were recruited as they progressed from a Learner to a Provisional driver’s licence. They completed a survey exploring their sociodemographic characteristics, driving and licensing experiences as a Learner. Key measures for a subsample (n = 183) of the current-GDL drivers were compared with the former-GDL drivers (n = 149) via t-tests and chi-square analyses. ----- ----- Results: As expected, Learner drivers progressing through the current-GDL program gained significantly more driving practice than those in the former program, which was more likely to be provided by mothers than in the past. Female learners in the current-GDL program reported less difficulty obtaining supervision than those in the former program. The number of attempts needed to pass the practical driving assessment did not change, nor did the amount of professional supervision. The current-GDL Learners held their licence for a significantly longer duration than those in the former program, with the majority reporting that their Logbook entries were accurate on the whole. Compared to those in the former program, a significantly smaller proportion of male current-GDL Learners reported being detected for a driving offence while the females reported significantly lower crash involvement. Most current-GDL drivers reported undertaking their supervised practice at the end of the Learner period. ----- ----- Conclusions: The enhancements to the GDL program in Queensland appear to have achieved many of their intended results. The current-GDL learners participating in the study reported obtaining a significantly greater amount of supervised driving experience compared to former-GDL learners. Encouragingly, the current-GDL Learners did not report any greater difficulty in obtaining supervised driving practice, and there was a decline in the proportion of current-GDL Learners engaging in unsupervised driving. In addition, the majority of Learners do not appear to be attempting to subvert logbook recording requirements, as evidenced by high rates of self-reported logbook accuracy. The results have implications for the development and the evaluation of GDL programs in Australia and around the world.

Assessment for learning in the accountability era : Queensland, Australia

Developments in school education in Australia over the past decade have witnessed the rise of national efforts to reform curriculum, assessment and reporting. Constitutionally the power to decide on curriculum matters still resides with the States. Higher stakes in assessment, brought about by national testing and international comparative analyses of student achievement data, have challenged State efforts to maintain the emphasis on assessment to promote learning while fulfilling accountability demands. In this article lessons from the Queensland experience indicate that it is important to build teachers' assessment capacity and their assessment literacy for the promotion of student learning. It is argued that teacher assessment can be a source of dependable results through moderation practice. The Queensland Studies Authority has recognised and supported the development of teacher assessment and moderation practice in the context of standards-driven, national reform. Recent research findings explain how the focus on learning can be maintained by avoiding an over-interpretation of test results in terms of innate ability and limitations and by encouraging teachers to adopt more tailored diagnosis of assessment data to address equity through focus on achievement for all. Such efforts are challenged as political pressures related to the Australian government’s implementation of national testing and national partnership funding arrangements tied to the performance of students at or below minimum standards become increasingly apparent.

Incidence, severity and correlates of bicycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia

Bicycle injuries, particularly those resulting from single bicycle crashes, are underreported in both police and hospital records. Data on cyclist characteristics and crash circumstances are also often lacking. As a result, the ability to develop comprehensive injury prevention policies is hampered. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, severity, cyclist characteristics, and crash circumstances associated with cycling injuries in a sample of cyclists in Queensland, Australia. A cross-sectional study of Queensland cyclists was conducted in 2009. Respondents (n=2056) completed an online survey about their cycling experiences, including cycling injuries. Logistic regression modelling was used to examine the associations between demographic and cycling behaviour variables with experiencing cycling injuries in the past year, and, separately, with serious cycling injuries requiring a trip to a hospital. Twenty-seven percent of respondents (n=545) reported injuries, and 6% (n=114) reported serious injuries. In multivariable modelling, reporting an injury was more likely for respondents who had cycled <5 years, compared to ≥10 years (p<0.005); cycled for competition (p=0.01); or experienced harassment from motor vehicle occupants (p<0.001). There were no gender differences in injury incidence, and respondents who cycled for transport did not have an increased risk of injury. Reporting a serious injury was more likely for those whose injury involved other road users (p<0.03). Along with environmental and behavioural approaches for reducing collisions and near-collisions with motor vehicles, interventions that improve the design and maintenance of cycling infrastructure, increase cyclists’ skills, and encourage safe cycling behaviours and bicycle maintenance will also be important for reducing the overall incidence of cycling injuries.

Spatial population genetic structure reveals strong natal site fidelity in Echinocladius martini (Diptera: Chironomidae) in northeast Queensland, Australia

1. A diverse array of patterns has been reported regarding the spatial extent of population genetic structure and effective dispersal in freshwater macroinvertebrates. In river systems, the movements of many taxa can be restricted to varying degrees by the natural stream channel hierarchy. 2. In this study, we sampled populations of the non-biting freshwater midge Echinocladius martini in the Paluma bioregion of tropical northeast Queensland to investigate fine scale patterns of within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a purported historical refuge. We amplified a 639 bp fragment of mitochondrial COI and analysed genetic structure using pairwise ΦST, hierarchical AMOVA, Mantel tests and a parsimony network. Genetic variation was partitioned among stream sections using Streamtree to investigate the effect of potential instream dispersal barriers. 3. The data revealed strong natal site fidelity and significant differentiation among neighbouring, geographically proximate streams. We found evidence for only episodic adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, our data suggested that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to within a stream channel. 4. This may arise from a combination of the high density of riparian vegetation physically restricting dispersal and from the joint effects of habitat stability and large population sizes. Together these may mitigate the requirement for movement among streams to avoid inbreeding and local extinction due to habitat change and may thus enable persistence of upstream populations in the absence of regular compensatory upstream flight. Taken together, these data suggest that dispersal of E. martini is highly restricted, to the scale of only a few kilometres, and hence occurs predominantly within the natal stream.

Researching employment relations : a self-reflexive analysis of a multi-method, school-based project

Drawing on primary data and adjunct material, this article adopts a critical self-reflexive approach to a three-year, Australian Research Council-funded projectthat explored themes around 'employment citizenship'for high school students in Queensland. The article addresses three overlapping areas that reflect some of the central dilemmas and challenges arising through the project- consent in the context of research ethics, questionnaire administration in schools, and focus group research practice. It contributes to the broader methodological literature addressing research with young people by canvassing pragmatic suggestions for future school-based research, and research addressing adolescent employment.

Use of 3D visualisation to enhance groundwater stable isotope data and its interpretation, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland

The use of stable isotope ratios δ18O and δ2H are well established in assessment of groundwater systems and their hydrology. The conventional approach is based on x/y plots and relation to various MWL’s, and plots of either ratio against parameters such as Clor EC. An extension of interpretation is the use of 2D maps and contour plots, and 2D hydrogeological vertical sections. An enhancement of presentation and interpretation is the production of “isoscapes”, usually as 2.5D surface projections. We have applied groundwater isotopic data to a 3D visualisation, using the alluvial aquifer system of the Lockyer Valley. The 3D framework is produced in GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System). This format enables enhanced presentation by displaying the spatial relationships and allowing interpolation between “data points” i.e. borehole screened zones where groundwater enters. The relative variations in the δ18O and δ2H values are similar in these ambient temperature systems. However, δ2H better reflects hydrological processes, whereas δ18O also reflects aquifer/groundwater exchange reactions. The 3D model has the advantage that it displays borehole relations to spatial features, enabling isotopic ratios and their values to be associated with, for example, bedrock groundwater mixing, interaction between aquifers, relation to stream recharge, and to near-surface and return irrigation water evaporation. Some specific features are also shown, such as zones of leakage of deeper groundwater (in this case with a GAB signature). Variations in source of recharging water at a catchment scale can be displayed. Interpolation between bores is not always possible depending on numbers and spacing, and by elongate configuration of the alluvium. In these cases, the visualisation uses discs around the screens that can be manually expanded to test extent or intersections. Separate displays are used for each of δ18O and δ2H and colour coding for isotope values.

Developing the atlas of cancer in Queensland : methodological issues

Background: Achieving health equity has been identified as a major challenge, both internationally and within Australia. Inequalities in cancer outcomes are well documented, and must be quantified before they can be addressed. One method of portraying geographical variation in data uses maps. Recently we have produced thematic maps showing the geographical variation in cancer incidence and survival across Queensland, Australia. This article documents the decisions and rationale used in producing these maps, with the aim to assist others in producing chronic disease atlases. Methods: Bayesian hierarchical models were used to produce the estimates. Justification for the cancers chosen, geographical areas used, modelling method, outcome measures mapped, production of the adjacency matrix, assessment of convergence, sensitivity analyses performed and determination of significant geographical variation is provided. Conclusions: Although careful consideration of many issues is required, chronic disease atlases are a useful tool for assessing and quantifying geographical inequalities. In addition they help focus research efforts to investigate why the observed inequalities exist, which in turn inform advocacy, policy, support and education programs designed to reduce these inequalities.

An assessment of development funding for new housing post GFC in Queensland, Australia

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify changes in bank lending criteria due to the GFC and to explore the associated impacts on new housing supply in Queensland, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: This research involves a survey of each of Australia’s big four banks, as well as two prominent arrangers of development finance. Data on key lending criteria was collected: Pre GFC, during the GFC, and GFC recovery stage. Findings: The GFC has resulted in a retraction of funds available for residential development. The few institutions lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive loan covenants including: low loan to value ratios, high cash equity requirements, regional “no go” zones, and demonstrated borrower track record. The ability of developers to proceed with new housing developments is being constrained by their inability to obtain sufficient finance. Research limitations/implications: This research uses survey data, together with an understanding of the project finance process to extrapolate impacts on the residential development industry across Queensland. No regional or sub-market analysis is included. Future research will include subsequent surveys to track any loosening of credit policies over time and sub-market sector analysis. Practical implications: The inability to obtain project finance is identified as a key constraint to new housing supply. This research will inform policy makers and provide important quantitative evidence of the importance of availability of development finance in the housing supply chain. Social implications: Queensland is facing a supply shortfall, which if not corrected, may lead to upward pressure on house prices and falling housing affordability. Originality/value: There is very little academic research on development funding. This research is unique in linking bank lending criteria to new housing supply and demonstrating the impact on the development industry.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

Promoting rural and remote teacher education in Australia through the Over the Hill project

Attracting quality teachers to rural areas is an ongoing international concern. Teacher education institutions have been criticised for contributing to this problem by failing to raise an awareness of teaching in rural areas in their teacher education programs. This study investigates preservice teachers’ perceptions towards teaching in rural areas after participating in a rural experience through the Over the Hill project. A self-selected group of second and third year preservice teachers from a regional campus of an urban Queensland university participated in a six-day rural experience, which included being billeted with local families, attending local community events and observing and teaching in rural primary and secondary schools. Data collected from the preservice teachers before and after the rural teaching experience were analysed to reveal positive perceptions towards teaching and living in rural communities. The findings revealed that even a brief immersion into rural schooling communities can positively influence preservice teachers’ attitudes towards seeking rural teaching placements. These findings have implications for the ways in which teacher education institutions can promote rural teaching opportunities in their teacher education programs.

Safeguarding rural Australia : addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings : framework and scope for secondary data analysis in a rural Australia context

This report is an update of an earlier version produced in January 2010 (see Carrington et al. 2010) which remains as an ePrint through the project’s home page. The report provides an introduction to our analyses of extant secondary data with respect to violent acts and incidents relating to males living in rural settings in Australia using data which were available in public data bases at the time of production. It clarifies important aspects of our overall approach primarily by concentrating on three elements that required early scoping and resolution.

Safeguarding rural Australia: addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings : intentional violent harm to others in an Australian rural context: analysis of secondary data analysis

This report is an update of an earlier one produced in January 2010 (see Carrington et al. 2010) which remains as an ePrint through the project’s home page. This report focuses on our examination of extant data which have been sourced with respect to intentional violence perpetrated or experienced by males living in regional and remote Australia . and which were available in public data bases at production. The nature of intentional violent acts can be physical, sexual or psychological or involve deprivation or neglect.

Safeguarding rural Australia: addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings : unintentional violent harm including injuries in an Australian rural context : analysis of secondary data analysis

This report is an update of an earlier one produced in January 2010 (see Carrington et al. 2010) which remains as an ePrint through the project’s home page. This report focuses on our examination of extant data which have been sourced with respect to unintentional serious and violent harm, including injuries, to males living in regional and remote Australia . and which were available in public data bases at production. Such harm typically might be caused by, for example, transport accidents, occupational exposures and hazards, burns and so on. Thus unintentional violent harm can cause physical trauma the consequences of which can lead to chronic conditions including psychological harm or substance abuse.

Safeguarding rural Australia : addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings : risky behaviour in a rural Australian context : analysis of secondary data analysis

This report is an update of an earlier one produced in January 2010 (see Carrington et al. 2010) which remains as an ePrint through the project’s home page. The report focus on our examination of extant data which have been sourced with respect to personally and socially risky behaviour associated with males living in regional and remote Australia and which were available in public data bases at production.