477 resultados para common method variance


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The common brown leafhopper Orosius orientalis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is a polyphagous vector of a range of economically important pathogens, including phytoplasmas and viruses, which infect a diverse range of crops. Studies on the plant penetration behaviour by O. orientalis were conducted using the electrical penetration graph (EPG) technique to assist in the characterisation of pathogen acquisition and transmission. EPG waveforms representing different probing activities were acquired from adult O. orientalis probing in planta, using two host species, tobacco Nicotiana tabacum and bean Phaseolus vulgaris, and in vitro using a simple sucrose-based artificial diet. Five waveforms (O1–O5) were evident when O. orientalis fed on bean, whereas only four waveforms (O1–O4) and three waveforms (O1–O3) were observed when the leafhopper fed on tobacco and on the artificial diet, respectively. Both the mean duration of each waveform and waveform type differed markedly depending on the food substrate. Waveform O4 was not observed on the artificial diet and occurred relatively rarely on tobacco plants when compared with bean plants. Waveform O5 was only observed with leafhoppers probing on beans. The attributes of the waveforms and comparative analyses with previously published Hemipteran data are presented and discussed, but further characterisation studies will be needed to confirm our suggestions.

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Prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer related deaths in Western men. Despite the significant improvements in current treatment techniques, there is no cure for advanced metastatic, castrate-resistant disease. Early detection and prevention of progression to a castrate-resistant state may provide new strategies to improve survival. A number of growth factors have been shown to act in an autocrine/paracrine manner to modulate prostate cancer tumour growth. Our laboratory has previously shown that ghrelin and its receptors (the functional GHS-R1a and the non-functional GHS-R1b) are expressed in prostate cancer specimens and cell lines. We have shown that ghrelin increases cell proliferation in the PC3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell lines through activation of ERK1/2, suggesting that ghrelin could regulate prostate cancer cell growth and play a role in the progression of the disease. Ghrelin is a 28 amino-acid peptide hormone, identified to be the natural ligand of the growth hormone secretagogue receptor (GHS-R1a). It is well characterised as a growth hormone releasing and as an orexigenic peptide that stimulates appetite and feeding and regulates energy expenditure and bodyweight. In addition to its orexigenic properties, ghrelin has been shown to play a regulatory role in a number of systems, including the reproductive, immune and cardiovascular systems and may play a role in a number of pathological conditions such as chronic heart failure, anorexia, cachexia, obesity, diabetes and cancer. In cancer, ghrelin and its receptor are expressed in a range of tumours and cancer cell lines and ghrelin has been demonstrated to modulate cell proliferation, apoptosis, migration and invasion in some cell types. The ghrelin gene (GHRL) encodes preproghrelin peptide, which is processed to produce three currently known functional peptides - ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin. Prohormone convertases (PCs) have been shown to cleave the preproghrelin peptide into two primary products - the 28 amino acid peptide, ghrelin, and the remaining 117 amino acid C-terminal peptide, C-ghrelin. C-ghrelin can then be further processed to produce the 23 amino acid peptide, obestatin. Ghrelin circulates in two different forms - an octanoylated form (known as ghrelin) and a non-octanoylated form, desacyl ghrelin. The unique post-translational addition of octanoic acid to the serine 3 residue of the propeptide chain to form acylated ghrelin is catalysed by ghrelin O-acyltransferase (GOAT). This modification is necessary for binding of ghrelin to its only known functional receptor, the GHS-R1a. As desacyl ghrelin cannot bind and activate the GHS-R1a, it was initially thought to be an inactive peptide, despite the fact that it circulates at much higher levels than ghrelin. Further research has demonstrated that desacyl ghrelin is biologically active and shares some of the actions of ghrelin, as well as having some opposing and distinct roles. Interestingly, both ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin have been shown to modulate apoptosis, cell differentiation and proliferation in some cell types, and to stimulate cell proliferation through activation of ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt pathways. The third known peptide product of the ghrelin preprohormone, obestatin, was initially thought to oppose the actions of ghrelin in appetite regulation and food intake and to mediate its effects through the G protein-coupled receptor 39 (GPR39). Subsequent research failed to reproduce the initial findings, however, and the possible anorexigenic effects of obestatin, as well as the identity of its receptor, remain unclear. Obestatin plays some important physiological roles, including roles in improving memory, the inhibition of thirst and anxiety, increased secretion of pancreatic juice, and regulation of cell proliferation, survival, apoptosis and differentiation. Preliminary studies have also shown that obestatin stimulates cell proliferation in some cell types through activation of ERK1/2, Akt and PKC pathways. Overall, however, at the commencement of this PhD project, relatively little was known regarding the functions and mechanisms of action of the preproghrelin-derived functional peptides in modulating prostate cancer cell proliferation. The roles of obestatin, and desacyl ghrelin as potential growth factors had not previously been investigated, and the potential expression and regulation of the preproghrelin processing enzymes, GOAT and prohormone convertases was unknown in prostate cancer cell lines. Therefore, the overall objectives of this study were to: 1. investigate the effects of obestatin on cell proliferation and signaling in prostate cancer cell lines 2. compare the effects of desacyl ghrelin and ghrelin on cell proliferation and signaling in prostate cancer cell lines 3. investigate whether prostate cancer cell lines possess the necessary enzymatic machinery to produce ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin and if these peptides can regulate GOAT expression Our laboratory has previously shown that ghrelin stimulates cell proliferation in the PC3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell line through activation of the ERK1/2 pathway. In this study it has been demonstrated that treatments with either ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin or obestatin over 72 hours significantly increased cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line but had no significant effect in the RWPE-1 transformed normal prostate cell line. Ghrelin (1000nM) stimulated cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line by 31.66 6.68% (p<0.01) with the WST-1 method, and 13.55 5.68% (p<0.05) with the CyQUANT assay. Desacyl ghrelin (1000nM) increased cell proliferation in PC3 cells by 21.73 2.62% (p<0.01) (WST-1), and 15.46 7.05% (p<0.05) (CyQUANT) above untreated control. Obestatin (1000nM) induced a 28.37 7.47% (p<0.01) (WST-1) and 12.14 7.47% (p<0.05) (CyQUANT) significant increase in cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line. Ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin treatments stimulated Akt and ERK phosphorylation across a range of concentrations (p<0.01). Obestatin treatment significantly stimulated Akt, ERK and PKC phosphorylation (p<0.05). Through the use of specific inhibitors, the MAPK inhibitor U0126 and the Akt1/2 kinase inhibitor, it was demonstrated that ghrelin- and obestatin-induced cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line is mediated through activation of ERK1/2 and Akt pathways. Although desacyl ghrelin significantly stimulated Akt and ERK phosphorylation, U0126 failed to prevent desacyl ghrelin-induced cell proliferation suggesting ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin might act through different mechanisms to increase cell proliferation. Ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin have shown a proliferative effect in osteoblasts, pancreatic -cells and cardiomyocytes through activation of ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt pathways. Here it has been shown that ghrelin and its non-acylated form exert the same function and stimulate cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line through activation of the Akt pathway. Ghrelin-induced proliferation was also mediated through activation of the ERK1/2 pathway, however, desacyl ghrelin seems to stimulate cell proliferation in an ERK1/2-independent manner. As desacyl ghrelin does not bind and activate GHSR1a, the only known functional ghrelin receptor, the finding that both ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin stimulate cell proliferation in the PC3 cell line suggests that these peptides could be acting through the yet unidentified alternative ghrelin receptor in this cell type. Obestatin treatment also stimulated PKC phosphorylation, however, a direct role for this pathway in stimulating cell proliferation could not be proven using available PKC pathway inhibitors, as they caused significant cell death over the extended timeframe of the cell proliferation assays. Obestatin has been shown to stimulate cell proliferation through activation of PKC isoforms in human retinal epithelial cells and in the human gastric cancer cell line KATO-III. We have demonstrated that all of the prostate-derived cell lines examined (PC3, LNCaP, DU145, 22Rv1, RWPE-1 and RWPE-2) expressed GOAT and at least one of the prohormone convertases, which are known to cleave the proghrelin peptide, PC1/3, PC2 and furin, at the mRNA level. These cells, therefore, are likely to possess the necessary machinery to cleave the preproghrelin protein and to produce the mature ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin peptides. In addition to prohormone convertases, the presence of octanoic acid is essential for acylated ghrelin production. In this study octanoic acid supplementation significantly increased cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line by over 20% compared to untreated controls (p<0.01), but surprisingly, not in the DU145, LNCaP or 22Rv1 prostate cancer cell lines or in the RWPE-1 and RWPE-2 prostate-derived cell lines. In addition, we demonstrated that exogenous ghrelin induced a statistically significant two-fold decrease in GOAT mRNA expression in the PC3 cell line (p<0.05), suggesting that ghrelin could pontentially downregulate its own acylation and, therefore, regulate the balance between ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin. This was not observed, however, in the DU145 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell lines. The GOAT-ghrelin system represents a direct link between ingested nutrients and regulation of ghrelin production and the ghrelin/desacyl ghrelin ratio. Regulation of ghrelin acylation is a potentially attractive and desirable tool for the development of better therapies for a number of pathological conditions where ghrelin has been shown to play a key role. The finding that desacyl ghrelin stimulates cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line, and responds to ghrelin in the same way, suggests that this cell line expresses an alternative ghrelin receptor. Although all the cell lines examined expressed both GHS-R1a and GHS-R1b mRNA, it remains uncertain whether these cell lines express the unidentified alternative ghrelin receptor. It is possible that the varied responses seen could be due to the expression of different ghrelin receptors in different cell lines. In addition to GOAT, prohormone convertases and octanoic acid availability may regulate the production of different peptides from the ghrelin preprohormone. The studies presented in this thesis provide significant new information regarding the roles and mechanisms of action of the preproghrelin-derived peptides, ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin, in modulating prostate cancer cell line proliferation. A number of key questions remain to be resolved, however, including the identification of the alternative ghrelin/desacyl ghrelin receptor, the identification of the obestatin receptor, a clarification of the signaling mechanisms which mediate cell proliferation in response to obestatin treatment and a better understanding of the regulation at both the gene and post-translational levels of functional peptide generation. Further studies investigating the role of the ghrelin axis using in vivo prostate cancer models may be warranted. Until these issues are determined, the potential for the ghrelin axis, to be recognised as a novel useful target for therapy for cancer or other pathologies will be uncertain.

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This article sets out the results of an empirical research study into the uses to which the Australian patent system is being put in the early 21st century. The focus of the study is business method patents, which are of interest because they are a controversial class of patent that are thought to differ significantly from the mechanical, chemical and industrial inventions that have traditionally been the mainstay of the patent system. The purpose of the study is to understand what sort of business method patent applications have been lodged in Australia in the first decade of this century and how the patent office is responding to those applications.

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Background: Mass migration to Asian cities is a defining phenomenon of the present age, as hundreds of millions of people move from rural areas or between cities in search of economic prosperity. Although many do prosper, large numbers of people experience significant social disadvantage. This is especially the case among poorly educated, migrant unskilled unregistered male laborers who do much of the manual work throughout the cities. These men are at significant risk for many health problems, including HIV infection. However, to date there has been little research in developing countries to explain the determinants of this risk, and thereby to suggest feasible preventive strategies. Objectives and Methodology: Using combined qualitative and quantitative methods, the aim of this study was to explore the social contexts that affect health vulnerabilities and to develop conceptual models to predict risk behaviors for HIV [illicit drug use, unsafe sex, and non-testing for HIV] among male street laborers in Hanoi, Vietnam. Qualitative Research: Sixteen qualitative interviews revealed a complex variety of life experiences, beliefs and knowledge deficits that render these mostly poor and minimally educated men vulnerable to health problems including HIV infection. This study formed a conceptual model of numerous stressors related to migrants’ life experiences in urban space, including physical, financial and social factors. A wide range of coping strategies were adopted to deal with stressors – including problem-focused coping (PFC) and emotion-focused coping (EFC), pro-social and anti-social, active and passive. These men reported difficulty in coping with stressors because they had weak social networks and lacked support from formal systems. A second conceptual model emerged that highlighted equivalent influences of individual psychological factors, social integration, social barriers, and accessibility regarding drug use and sexual risk behavior. Psychological dimensions such as tedium, distress, fatalism and revenge, were important. There were strong effects of collective decision-making and fear of social isolation on shaping risk behaviors. These exploratory qualitative interviews helped to develop a culturally appropriate instrument for the quantitative survey and informed theoretical models of the factors that affect risk behaviors for HIV infection. Quantitative Research: The Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model was adopted as the theoretical framework for a large-scale survey. It was modified to suit the contexts of these Vietnamese men. By doing a social mapping technique, 450 male street laborers were interviewed in Hanoi, Vietnam. The survey revealed that the risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV was high among these men. One in every 12 men reported homosexual or bisexual behavior. These men on average had 3 partners within the preceding year, and condom use was inconsistent. One third had had sex with commercial sex workers (CSW) and only 30% of them reported condom use; 17% used illicit drugs sometimes, with 66.7% of them frequently sharing injecting equipment with peers. Despite the risks, only 19.8% of men had been tested for HIV during the previous 12 months. These men have limited HIV knowledge and only moderate motivation and perceived behavioral skills for protective behavior. Although rural-to-urban migration was not associated with sexual risk behavior, three elements of the IMB model and depression associated with the process of mobility were significant determinants of sexual behavior. A modified model that incorporated IMB elements and psychosocial stress was found to be a better fit than the original IMB model alone in predicting protected sex behavior among the men. Men who were less psychologically and socially stressed, better informed and motivated for HIV prevention were more likely to demonstrate behavioral skills, and in turn were more likely to engage in safer sexual behavior. With regard to drug use, although the conventional model accounted for slightly less variance than the modified IMB model, data were of better fit for the conventional model. Multivariate analyses revealed that men who originated from urban areas, those who were homo- or bi-sexually identified and had better knowledge and skills for HIV prevention were more likely to access HIV testing, while men who had more sexual partners and those who did not use a condom for sex with CSW were least likely to take a test. The modified IMB model provided a better fit than the conventional model, as it explained a greater variance in HIV testing. Conclusions and Implications: This research helps to highlight a potential hidden HIV epidemic among street male, unskilled, unregistered laborers. This group has multiple vulnerabilities to HIV infection through both their partners and peers. However, most do not know their HIV status and have limited knowledge about preventing infection. This is the first application of a modified IMB model of risk behaviors for HIV such as drug use, condom use, and uptake of HIV testing to research with male street laborers in urban settings. The study demonstrated that while the extended IMB model had better fit than the conventional version in explaining the behaviors of safe sex and HIV testing, it was not so for drug use. The results provide interesting directions for future research and suggest ways to effectively design intervention strategies. The findings should shed light on culturally appropriate HIV preventive education and support programs for these men. As Vietnam has much in common with other developing countries in Southeast Asia, this research provides evidence for policy and practice that may be useful for public health systems in similar countries.

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Many common diseases, such as the flu and cardiovascular disease, increase markedly in winter and dip in summer. These seasonal patterns have been part of life for millennia and were first noted in ancient Greece by both Hippocrates and Herodotus. Recent interest has focused on climate change, and the concern that seasons will become more extreme with harsher winter and summer weather. We describe a set of R functions designed to model seasonal patterns in disease. We illustrate some simple descriptive and graphical methods, a more complex method that is able to model non-stationary patterns, and the case–crossover for controlling for seasonal confounding.

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A vertex-centred finite volume method (FVM) for the Cahn-Hilliard (CH) and recently proposed Cahn-Hilliard-reaction (CHR) equations is presented. Information at control volume faces is computed using a high-order least-squares approach based on Taylor series approximations. This least-squares problem explicitly includes the variational boundary condition (VBC) that ensures that the discrete equations satisfy all of the boundary conditions. We use this approach to solve the CH and CHR equations in one and two dimensions and show that our scheme satisfies the VBC to at least second order. For the CH equation we show evidence of conservative, gradient stable solutions, however for the CHR equation, strict gradient-stability is more challenging to achieve.

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This paper presents an approach to derive requirements for an avionics architecture that provides onboard sense-and-avoid and autonomous emergency forced landing capabilities to a UAS. The approach is based on two design paradigms that (1) derive requirements analyzing the common functionality between these two functions to then derive requirements for sensors, computing capability, interfaces, etc. (2) consider the risk and safety mitigation associated with these functions to derive certification requirements for the system design. We propose to use the Aircraft Certification Matrix (ACM) approach to tailor the system Development Assurance Levels (DAL) and architecture requirements in accordance with acceptable risk criteria. This architecture is developed under the name “Flight Guardian”. Flight Guardian is an avionics architecture that integrates common sensory elements that are essential components of any UAS that is required to be dependable. The Flight Guardian concept is also applicable to conventionally piloted aircraft, where it will serve to reduce cockpit workload.

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Breast cancer is a leading contributor to the burden of disease in Australia. Fortunately, the recent introduction of diverse therapeutic strategies have improved the survival outcome for many women. Despite this, the clinical management of breast cancer remains problematic as not all approaches are sufficiently sophisticated to take into account the heterogeneity of this disease and are unable to predict disease progression, in particular, metastasis. As such, women with good prognostic outcomes are exposed to the side effects of therapies without added benefit. Furthermore, women with aggressive disease for whom these advanced treatments would deliver benefit cannot be distinguished and opportunities for more intensive or novel treatment are lost. This study is designed to identify novel factors associated with disease progression, and the potential to inform disease prognosis. Frequently overlooked, yet common mediators of disease are the interactions that take place between the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system and the extracellular matrix (ECM). Our laboratory has previously demonstrated that multiprotein insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I): insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP): vitronectin (VN) complexes stimulate migration of breast cancer cells in vitro, via the cooperative involvement of the insulin-like growth factor type I receptor (IGF-IR) and VN-binding integrins. However, the effects of IGF and ECM protein interactions on the dissemination and progression of breast cancer in vivo are unknown. It was hypothesised that interactions between proteins required for IGF induced signalling events and those within the ECM contribute to breast cancer metastasis and are prognostic and predictive indicators of patient outcome. To address this hypothesis, semiquantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC) analyses were performed to compare the extracellular and subcellular distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins between matched normal, primary cancer, and metastatic cancer among archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) breast tissue samples collected from women attending the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression survival models in conjunction with a modified „purposeful selection of covariates. method were applied to determine the prognostic potential of these proteins. This study provides the first in-depth, compartmentalised analysis of the distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. As protein function and protein localisation are closely correlated, these findings provide novel insights into IGF signalling and ECM protein function during breast cancer development and progression. Distinct IGF signalling and ECM protein immunoreactivity was observed in the stroma and/or in subcellular locations in normal breast, primary cancer and metastatic cancer tissues. Analysis of the presence and location of stratifin (SFN) suggested a causal relationship in ECM remodelling events during breast cancer development and progression. The results of this study have also suggested that fibronectin (FN) and ¥â1 integrin are important for the formation of invadopodia and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) events. Our data also highlighted the importance of the temporal and spatial distribution of IGF induced signalling proteins in breast cancer metastasis; in particular, SFN, enhancer-of-split and hairy-related protein 2 (SHARP-2), total-akt/protein kinase B 1 (Total-AKT1), phosphorylated-akt/protein kinase B (P-AKT), extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (ERK1/2) and phosphorylated-extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (P-ERK1/2). Multivariate survival models were created from the immunohistochemical data. These models were found to fit well with these data with very high statistical confidence. Numerous prognostic confounding effects and effect modifications were identified among elements of the ECM and IGF signalling cascade and corroborate the survival models. This finding provides further evidence for the prognostic potential of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. In addition, the adjusted measures of associations obtained in this study have strengthened the validity and utility of the resulting models. The findings from this study provide insights into the biological interactions that occur during the development of breast tissue and contribute to disease progression. Importantly, these multivariate survival models could provide important prognostic and predictive indicators that assist the clinical management of breast disease, namely in the early identification of cancers with a propensity to metastasise, and/or recur following adjuvant therapy. The outcomes of this study further inform the development of new therapeutics to aid patient recovery. The findings from this study have widespread clinical application in the diagnosis of disease and prognosis of disease progression, and inform the most appropriate clinical management of individuals with breast cancer.

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The most common software analysis tools available for measuring fluorescence images are for two-dimensional (2D) data that rely on manual settings for inclusion and exclusion of data points, and computer-aided pattern recognition to support the interpretation and findings of the analysis. It has become increasingly important to be able to measure fluorescence images constructed from three-dimensional (3D) datasets in order to be able to capture the complexity of cellular dynamics and understand the basis of cellular plasticity within biological systems. Sophisticated microscopy instruments have permitted the visualization of 3D fluorescence images through the acquisition of multispectral fluorescence images and powerful analytical software that reconstructs the images from confocal stacks that then provide a 3D representation of the collected 2D images. Advanced design-based stereology methods have progressed from the approximation and assumptions of the original model-based stereology(1) even in complex tissue sections(2). Despite these scientific advances in microscopy, a need remains for an automated analytic method that fully exploits the intrinsic 3D data to allow for the analysis and quantification of the complex changes in cell morphology, protein localization and receptor trafficking. Current techniques available to quantify fluorescence images include Meta-Morph (Molecular Devices, Sunnyvale, CA) and Image J (NIH) which provide manual analysis. Imaris (Andor Technology, Belfast, Northern Ireland) software provides the feature MeasurementPro, which allows the manual creation of measurement points that can be placed in a volume image or drawn on a series of 2D slices to create a 3D object. This method is useful for single-click point measurements to measure a line distance between two objects or to create a polygon that encloses a region of interest, but it is difficult to apply to complex cellular network structures. Filament Tracer (Andor) allows automatic detection of the 3D neuronal filament-like however, this module has been developed to measure defined structures such as neurons, which are comprised of dendrites, axons and spines (tree-like structure). This module has been ingeniously utilized to make morphological measurements to non-neuronal cells(3), however, the output data provide information of an extended cellular network by using a software that depends on a defined cell shape rather than being an amorphous-shaped cellular model. To overcome the issue of analyzing amorphous-shaped cells and making the software more suitable to a biological application, Imaris developed Imaris Cell. This was a scientific project with the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, which has been developed to calculate the relationship between cells and organelles. While the software enables the detection of biological constraints, by forcing one nucleus per cell and using cell membranes to segment cells, it cannot be utilized to analyze fluorescence data that are not continuous because ideally it builds cell surface without void spaces. To our knowledge, at present no user-modifiable automated approach that provides morphometric information from 3D fluorescence images has been developed that achieves cellular spatial information of an undefined shape (Figure 1). We have developed an analytical platform using the Imaris core software module and Imaris XT interfaced to MATLAB (Mat Works, Inc.). These tools allow the 3D measurement of cells without a pre-defined shape and with inconsistent fluorescence network components. Furthermore, this method will allow researchers who have extended expertise in biological systems, but not familiarity to computer applications, to perform quantification of morphological changes in cell dynamics.

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Phenomenology is a term that has been described as a philosophy, a research paradigm, a methodology, and equated with qualitative research. In this paper first we clarify phenomenology by tracing its movement both as a philosophy and as a research method. Next we make a case for the use of phenomenology in empirical investigations of management phenomena. The paper discusses a selection of central concepts pertaining to phenomenology as a scientific research method, which include description, phenomenological reduction and free imaginative variation. In particular, the paper elucidates the efficacy of Giorgi’s descriptive phenomenological research praxis as a qualitative research method and how its utility can be applied in creating a deeper and richer understanding of management practice.

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Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

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INTRODUCTION: Little research has examined recognized pregnancy losses in a general population. Data from an Australian cohort study provide an opportunity to quantify this aspect of fecundity at a population level. METHOD: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 28-33 years in 2006 (n = 9,145) completed up to 4 mailed surveys over 10 years. Participants were categorized according to the recognized outcome of their pregnancies, including live birth, miscarriage/stillbirth, termination/ectopic, or no pregnancy. RESULTS: At age 18-23, more women reported terminations (7%) than miscarriages (4%). By 28-33 years, the cumulative frequency of miscarriage (15%) was as common as termination (16%). For women aged 28-33 years who had ever been pregnant (n = 5,343), pregnancy outcomes were as follows: birth only (50%); loss only (18%); and birth and loss (32%), of which half (16%) were birth and miscarriage. A comparison between first miscarriage and first birth (no miscarriage) showed that most first miscarriages occurred in women aged 18-23 years who also reported a first birth at the same survey (15%). Half (51%) of all first births and first miscarriages in women aged 18-19 ended in miscarriage. Early childbearers (<28 years) often had miscarriages around the same time period as their first live birth, suggesting proactive family formation. Delayed childbearers (32-33 years) had more first births than first miscarriages. CONCLUSION: Recognized pregnancy losses are an important measure of fecundity in the general population because they indicate successful conception and maintenance of pregnancy to varying reproductive endpoints.

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Background: This longitudinal analysis examines how patterns of contraceptive use changed over 11 years among Australian women born between 1973 and 1978. Study Design: The analysis included 6708 women sampled from the Australian universal health insurance database who completed four self-report postal surveys between 1996 and 2006. Change over time in use of any method of contraception and the common single methods of the oral contraceptive pill and condom was examined using a longitudinal logistic regression model. Results: The oral contraceptive pill was the most commonly used single method at each survey (27-44%) but decreased over time. Over time, contraceptive users were increasingly more likely to be single or in a de facto relationship or to have had two or more births. Conclusions: Women's contraceptive use and the factors associated with contraceptive use change over time as women move into relationships, try to conceive, have babies and complete their families.

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The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that a statistical-based method based on likelihood theory and an economic loss function based on portfolio variance are the most effective means of identifying optimal forecasts of conditional covariance matrices.

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This paper describes a method for measuring the creative potential of computer games. The research approach applies a behavioral and verbal protocol to analyze the factors that influence the creative processes used by people as they play computer games from the puzzle genre. Creative potential is measured by examining task motivation and domain-relevant and creativity-relevant skills. This paper focuses on the reliability of the factors used for measurement, determining those factors that are more strongly related to creativity. The findings show that creative potential may be determined by examining the relationship between skills required and the effect of intrinsic motivation within game play activities.