A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

ASEAN and ADB implementing new approaches to building road safety capacity

Following the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) senior transport officials meeting in May 2011, the Secretariat requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide assistance to improve road safety in ASEAN. In response, ADB, funded by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, has begun an innovative approach to capacity building that has already been adapted and replicated in other sub-regions. This paper will discuss the model central to the project. The Road Safety Capacity Building for ASEAN Project commenced in May 2013. Each country has appointed a National Focal Point (NFP) to identify and coordinate information. A team of International Experts were appointed to develop materials and present a comprehensive train the trainer program focused on five key areas. Thirty eight senior Government officers from across ASEAN attended a two week program at ADB headquarters in Manila and will arrange and deliver specific training and associated activities to other colleagues within their country. ADB has appointed a National Consultant to work in partnership with the trainees on a range of activities including development of “pipeline project proposals” for funding consideration investors and donors. As part of the project, a draft ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy document has been prepared and consultation will further refine its directions and contents. The project will reach its conclusion in 2015 and a follow up phase three project is being considered.

Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Spin it to win it: A comparison of constraints-led versus traditional coaching approaches

This thesis aimed to compare the effects of constraints-led and traditional coaching approaches on young cricket spin bowlers, with a specific research focus on increasing spin rates (i.e., Revolutions per Minute). Participants were 22 spin bowlers from either an Australia state youth squad or an academy in England. Results indicate that adopting a constraints-led approach can benefit younger, inexperienced bowlers, whilst a traditional approach may assist more skilled, older bowlers. The findings are discussed with regards to how they may inform the learning design of training programs by cricket coaches.

Disease mapping using Bayesian hierarchical models

description and analysis of geographically indexed health data with respect to demographic, environmental, behavioural, socioeconomic, genetic, and infectious risk factors (Elliott andWartenberg 2004). Disease maps can be useful for estimating relative risk; ecological analyses, incorporating area and/or individual-level covariates; or cluster analyses (Lawson 2009). As aggregated data are often more readily available, one common method of mapping disease is to aggregate the counts of disease at some geographical areal level, and present them as choropleth maps (Devesa et al. 1999; Population Health Division 2006). Therefore, this chapter will focus exclusively on methods appropriate for areal data...

Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

K-12 transitions: Approaches and lessons learned

More than 140 countries offer what has become the international norm for preteritiary education, namely a kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) system. Why kindergarten? Because, research attests to the long-term learning and social benefits of school readiness programs. Why 12 grades? Because experience in many countries shows that a K-12 system of schooling is the minimum necessary to acquire the knowledge and expertise for university education, employment training, or decent work.

Abstract concepts made real: A pilot study examining pedagogical approaches in thermodynamics tutorials

BACKGROUND OR CONTEXT Thermodynamics is a core concept for mechanical engineers yet notoriously difficult. Evidence suggests students struggle to understand and apply the core fundamental concepts of thermodynamics with analysis indicating a problem with student learning/engagement. A contributing factor is that thermodynamics is a ‘science involving concepts based on experiments’ (Mayhew 1990) with subject matter that cannot be completely defined a priori. To succeed, students must engage in a deep-holistic approach while taking ownership of their learning. The difficulty in achieving this often manifests itself in students ‘not getting’ the principles and declaring thermodynamics ‘hard’. PURPOSE OR GOAL Traditionally, students practice and “learn” the application of thermodynamics in their tutorials, however these do not consider prior conceptions (Holman & Pilling 2004). As ‘hands on’ learning is the desired outcome of tutorials it is pertinent to study methods of improving their efficacy. Within the Australian context, the format of thermodynamics tutorials has remained relatively unchanged over the decades, relying anecdotally on a primarily didactic pedagogical approach. Such approaches are not conducive to deep learning (Ramsden 2003) with students often disengaged from the learning process. Evidence suggests (Haglund & Jeppsson 2012), however, that a deeper level and ownership of learning can be achieved using a more constructivist approach for example through self generated analogies. This pilot study aimed to collect data to support the hypothesis that the ‘difficulty’ of thermodynamics is associated with the pedagogical approach of tutorials rather than actual difficulty in subject content or deficiency in students. APPROACH Successful application of thermodynamic principles requires solid knowledge of the core concepts. Typically, tutorial sessions guide students in this application. However, a lack of deep and comprehensive understanding can lead to student confusion in the applications resulting in the learning of the ‘process’ of application without understanding ‘why’. The aim of this study was to gain empirical data on student learning of both concepts and application, within thermodynamic tutorials. The approach taken for data collection and analysis was: - 1 Four concurrent tutorial streams were timetabled to examine student engagement/learning in traditional ‘didactic’ (3 weeks) and non-traditional (3 weeks). In each week, two of the selected four sessions were traditional and two non-traditional. This provided a control group for each week. - 2 The non-traditional tutorials involved activities designed to promote student-centered deep learning. Specific pedagogies employed were: self-generated analogies, constructivist, peer-to-peer learning, inquiry based learning, ownership of learning and active learning. - 3 After a three-week period, teaching styles of the selected groups was switched, to allow each group to experience both approaches with the same tutor. This also acted to mimimise any influence of tutor personality / style on the data. - 4 At the conclusion of the trial participants completed a ‘5 minute essay’ on how they liked the sessions, a small questionnaire, modelled on the modified (Christo & Hoang, 2013)SPQ designed by Biggs (1987) and a small formative quiz to gauge the level of learning achieved. DISCUSSION Preliminary results indicate that overall students respond positively to in class demonstrations (inquiry based learning), and active learning activities. Within the active learning exercises, the current data suggests students preferred individual rather than group or peer-to-peer activities. Preliminary results from the open-ended questions such as “What did you like most/least about this tutorial” and “do you have other comments on how this tutorial could better facilitate your learning”, however, indicated polarising views on the nontraditional tutorial. Some student’s responded that they really like the format and emphasis on understanding the concepts, while others were very vocal that that ‘hated’ the style and just wanted the solutions to be presented by the tutor. RECOMMENDATIONS/IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSION Preliminary results indicated a mixed, but overall positive response by students with more collaborative tutorials employing tasks promoting inquiry based, peer-to-peer, active, and ownership of learning activities. Preliminary results from student feedback supports evidence that students learn differently, and running tutorials focusing on only one pedagogical approached (typically didactic) may not be beneficial to all students. Further, preliminary data suggests that the learning / teaching style of both students and tutor are important to promoting deep learning in students. Data collection is still ongoing and scheduled for completion at the end of First Semester (Australian academic calendar). The final paper will examine in more detail the results and analysis of this project.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

A taxonomic approach to understanding managerial ethical decision making approaches of clinically and non-clinically trained healthcare managers in Australia

Objective To understand differences in the managerial ethical decision-making styles of Australian healthcare managers through the exploratory use of the Managerial Ethical Profiles (MEP) Scale. Background Healthcare managers (doctors, nurses, allied health practitioners and non-clinically trained professionals) are faced with a raft of variables when making decisions within the workplace. In the absence of clear protocols and policies healthcare managers rely on a range of personal experiences, personal ethical philosophies, personal factors and organizational factors to arrive at a decision. Understanding the dominant approaches to managerial ethical decision-making, particularly for clinically trained healthcare managers, is a fundamental step in both increasing awareness of the importance of how managers make decisions, but also as a basis for ongoing development of healthcare managers. Design Cross-sectional. Methods The study adopts a taxonomic approach that simultaneously considers multiple ethical factors that potentially influence managerial ethical decision-making. These factors are used as inputs into cluster analysis to identify distinct patterns of influence on managerial ethical decision-making. Results Data analysis from the participants (n=441) showed a similar spread of the five managerial ethical profiles (Knights, Guardian Angels, Duty Followers, Defenders and Chameleons) across clinically trained and non-clinically trained healthcare managers. There was no substantial statistical difference between the two manager types (clinical and non-clinical) across the five profiles. Conclusion This paper demonstrated that managers that came from clinical backgrounds have similar ethical decision-making profiles to non-clinically trained managers. This is an important finding in terms of manager development and how organisations understand the various approaches of managerial decision-making across the different ethical profiles.

Marker selection by Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

We carried out a discriminant analysis with identity by descent (IBD) at each marker as inputs, and the sib pair type (affected-affected versus affected-unaffected) as the output. Using simple logistic regression for this discriminant analysis, we illustrate the importance of comparing models with different number of parameters. Such model comparisons are best carried out using either the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). When AIC (or BIC) stepwise variable selection was applied to the German Asthma data set, a group of markers were selected which provide the best fit to the data (assuming an additive effect). Interestingly, these 25-26 markers were not identical to those with the highest (in magnitude) single-locus lod scores.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.