The three little pigs and the art of playfulness

A number of pictorial based texts for children use animals as models for displaying or approaching aspects of childhood. Although authors and illustrators utilise various tactics for including anthropomorphic animals in their books, those that are used as 'surrogate' children can be seen to focus in the main on issues of behaviour, socialisation and maturity - issues that reflect the everyday life of the growing child. This paper aims to explore three pictorial texts that specifically utilise the pig character as a child model, to facilitate for authors/illustrators the opportunity to deal with examples of childhood experience. The paper also tentatively examines how such roles might encourage a reassessment of other more stereotypical associations some audiences have historically/culturally formed about the pig.

Convexity, Classification, and Risk Bounds

Many of the classification algorithms developed in the machine learning literature, including the support vector machine and boosting, can be viewed as minimum contrast methods that minimize a convex surrogate of the 0–1 loss function. The convexity makes these algorithms computationally efficient. The use of a surrogate, however, has statistical consequences that must be balanced against the computational virtues of convexity. To study these issues, we provide a general quantitative relationship between the risk as assessed using the 0–1 loss and the risk as assessed using any nonnegative surrogate loss function. We show that this relationship gives nontrivial upper bounds on excess risk under the weakest possible condition on the loss function—that it satisfies a pointwise form of Fisher consistency for classification. The relationship is based on a simple variational transformation of the loss function that is easy to compute in many applications. We also present a refined version of this result in the case of low noise, and show that in this case, strictly convex loss functions lead to faster rates of convergence of the risk than would be implied by standard uniform convergence arguments. Finally, we present applications of our results to the estimation of convergence rates in function classes that are scaled convex hulls of a finite-dimensional base class, with a variety of commonly used loss functions.

Classification with a reject option using a hinge loss

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. Just as in the conventional classification problem, minimization of the sample average of the cost is a difficult optimization problem. As an alternative, we propose the optimization of a certain convex loss function φ, analogous to the hinge loss used in support vector machines (SVMs). Its convexity ensures that the sample average of this surrogate loss can be efficiently minimized. We study its statistical properties. We show that minimizing the expected surrogate loss—the φ-risk—also minimizes the risk. We also study the rate at which the φ-risk approaches its minimum value. We show that fast rates are possible when the conditional probability P(Y=1|X) is unlikely to be close to certain critical values.

A note on trader Sharpe Ratios

Traders in the financial world are assessed by the amount of money they make and, increasingly, by the amount of money they make per unit of risk taken, a measure known as the Sharpe Ratio. Little is known about the average Sharpe Ratio among traders, but the Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that traders, like asset managers, should not outperform the broad market. Here we report the findings of a study conducted in the City of London which shows that a population of experienced traders attain Sharpe Ratios significantly higher than the broad market. To explain this anomaly we examine a surrogate marker of prenatal androgen exposure, the second-to-fourth finger length ratio (2D:4D), which has previously been identified as predicting a trader's long term profitability. We find that it predicts the amount of risk taken by traders but not their Sharpe Ratios. We do, however, find that the traders' Sharpe Ratios increase markedly with the number of years they have traded, a result suggesting that learning plays a role in increasing the returns of traders. Our findings present anomalous data for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Surrogacy : is it harder to relinquish genes?

Surrogacy has produced some positive outcomes creating an opportunity for otherwise childless couples to live their dream of parenthood. However it has also been problematic, particularly where the surrogate mother fails to relinquish a child born as a result of the surrogacy arrangement. This article examines whether a surrogate mother, who is genetically related to the child she delivers, is less likely to relinquish the child than one who has no genetic ties. An examination of empirical evidence provides support for this argument. Legislation and case law in three jurisdictions, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, is examined to determine which, if any, of these jurisdictions take into account the existence, or otherwise, of a genetic link between the surrogate mother and the child she bears. The article concludes that surrogacy legislation should, subject to exceptional circumstances, encourage surrogacy arrangements where the child and the surrogate are not genetically related.

Surrogacy and IVF

While in the past surrogacy was illegal in Queensland, since June 2010 the Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) (“the Act”) has made altruistic surrogacy arrangements lawful in Queensland. In addition, it provides a mechanism for transfer of legal parentage from the surrogate to the person(s) wishing to have a child (the intended parent(s)). Commercial surrogacy – where a payment, reward or other material benefit of advantage (other than the reimbursement of the “birth mother’s surrogacy costs” (s11 of the Act) is made for entering into a surrogacy arrangement – remains unlawful. The paramount guiding principle underpinning the Act is that of the wellbeing and best interests of a child born as a result of surrogacy. The Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) allows a single person or a couple (heterosexual or same sex couples) to enter into an agreement with a woman, and her partner (if she has one), to become pregnant with the intention that the child will be relinquished to the intended parent(s). The Act also provides a mechanism for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised as the parent(s) of the child. In order for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised (via a parentage order, discussed below) it must be shown that the surrogacy arrangement was entered into when all the parties were over 25 years of age and the intended parent(s) are male or, in a heterosexual or lesbian couple the female(s) are not likely to conceive or give birth to a healthy child due to medical reasons. The arrangement must be entered into before the surrogate becomes pregnant and all parties must have obtained independent legal advice and counselling about the proposed arrangement, and evidence of this is required at the time a parentage order is applied for. For the purposes of the Act it does not matter how the surrogate conceives the child or if the child is genetically related to the parties. During the period of the pregnancy, the surrogate has the right to manage her pregnancy in the way she wishes. Although she cannot profit from acting as a surrogate, section 11 states that she is entitled to surrogacy costs. These include, for example, reasonable medical costs related to pregnancy and the birth of the child; counselling and legal costs associated with the surrogacy arrangement; actual lost earnings because of leave taken during pregnancy or following birth and any reasonable travel expenses incurred. The surrogacy arrangement itself is not legally enforceable; however, obligations to pay a surrogate’s surrogacy costs are enforceable unless she chooses not to relinquish the child to the intending parents. While the Act does not specifically deal with the situation where the surrogate decides she is unprepared to relinquish the child to the intended parents, there have been examples where parties have entered into these kinds of arrangements, and the arrangements have become difficult. For example, the Family Court case of Re Evelyn (1998) FLC 92–807 involved a child born to a surrogate mother who decided not to surrender her. The child was the genetic child of the surrogate mother and the husband of the couple who had contracted with the surrogate mother. Both sets of parents brought proceedings in the court, seeking that the child live with them. In hearing the application, the court applied the paramount principle of the ‘best interests of the child’. The court made clear that there is no presumption in favour of the birth mother, although in this case the court found that the child may be better placed with the surrogate mother’s family.

The Commercial Surrogacy Dilemma

In November 2009 the England and Wales High Court (Family Division) granted a parental order pursuant to s30 Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 1990 in respect of twins who came to be in the custody and control of the applicants (Mr and Mrs A) through a surrogacy arrangement. The particularly unusual and interesting aspect of this case is that, on the evidence, Mr and Mrs A had paid expenses to the surrogate above and beyond those allowed by the legislation, thus creating a commercial surrogacy arrangement. Commercial surrogacy arrangements involve the payment of money to the surrogate mother in excess of those expenses which have been reasonably incurred pursuant to the surrogacy arrangement. This case is relevant to Queensland law because commercial surrogacy arrangements are also prohibited in Queensland and, as in the United Kingdom, the court cannot make a parentage order unless it is satisfied the surrogacy arrangement is not a commercial surrogacy arrangement.

me as al, you as bobby, me as bobby, you as al

In ‘me as al, you as bobby, me as bobby, you as al’, appropriated footage is looped and supplemented with superimposed text, creating a scenario where Robert De Niro and Al Pacino endlessly stalk each other, with their readied-guns chased by hovering words. These titans of Hollywood screen acting represent opposing approaches to the construction of filmic identity, and as the text labels loosely adhere to one weapon and the next, the action on screen becomes an investigation of the subjective and objective potential within screen surrogate constructions of personalized identity. The work was included in the group show 'Vernacular Terrain' (curated by Lubi Thomas and Steven Danzig) for the Songzhuang Art Museum, Beijing.

The role of insulin in advanced prostate cancer

Advanced prostate cancer is a common and generally incurable disease. Androgen deprivation therapy is used to treat advanced prostate cancer with good benefits to quality of life and regression of disease. Prostate cancer invariably progresses however despite ongoing treatment, to a castrate resistant state. Androgen deprivation is associated with a form of metabolic syndrome, which includes insulin resistance and hyperinsulinaemia. The mitogenic and anti-apoptotic properties of insulin acting through the insulin and hybrid insulin/IGF-1 receptors seem to have positive effects on prostate tumour growth. This pilot study was designed to assess any correlation between elevated insulin levels and progression to castrate resistant prostate cancer. Methods: 36 men receiving ADT for advanced prostate cancer were recruited, at various stages of their treatment, along with 47 controls, men with localised prostate cancer pre-treatment. Serum measurements of C-peptide (used as a surrogate marker for insulin production) were performed and compared between groups. Correlation between serum C-peptide level and time to progression to castrate resistant disease was assessed. Results: There was a significant elevation of C-peptide levels in the ADT group (mean = 1639pmol/L)) compared to the control group (mean = 1169pmol/L), with a p-value of 0.025. In 17 men with good initial response to androgen deprivation, a small negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide level was seen in the ADT group (r = -0.050), however this did not reach statistical significance (p>0.1). Conclusions: This pilot study confirms an increase in serum C-peptide levels in men receiving ADT for advance prostate cancer. A non-significant, but negative trend towards earlier progression to castrate resistance with increasing C-peptide suggests the need for a formal prospective study assessing this hypothesis.

On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Real-time detection of concealed chemical hazards under ambient light conditions using Raman spectroscopy

Current concerns regarding terrorism and international crime highlight the need for new techniques for detecting unknown and hazardous substances. A novel Raman spectroscopy-based technique, spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS), was recently devised for non-invasively probing the contents of diffusely scattering and opaque containers. Here, we demonstrate a modified portable SORS sensor for detecting concealed substances in-field under different background lighting conditions. Samples including explosive precursors, drugs and an organophosphate insecticide (chemical warfare agent surrogate) were concealed inside diffusely scattering packaging including plastic, paper and cloth. Measurements were carried out under incandescent and fluorescent light as well as under daylight to assess the suitability of the probe for different real-life conditions. In each case, it was possible to identify the substances against their reference Raman spectra in less than one minute. The developed sensor has potential for rapid detection of concealed hazardous substances in airports, mail distribution centers and customs checkpoints.

Analysis of marine conflicts

The traffic conflict technique (TCT) is a powerful technique applied in road traffic safety assessment as a surrogate of the traditional accident data analysis. It has subdued the conceptual and implemental weaknesses of the accident statistics. Although this technique has been applied effectively in road traffic, it has not been practised well in marine traffic even though this traffic system has some distinct advantages in terms of having a monitoring system. This monitoring system can provide navigational information as well as other geometric information of the ships for a larger study area over a longer time period. However, for implementing the TCT in the marine traffic system, it should be examined critically to suit the complex nature of the traffic system. This paper examines the suitability of the TCT to be applied to marine traffic and proposes a framework for a follow up comprehensive conflict study.

Biodiversity–productivity relationships in small-scale mixed-species plantations using native species in Leyte province, Philippines

In this study, we investigate the relationship between tree species diversity and production in 18 mixed-species plantations established under the Rainforestation Farming system in Leyte province, the Philippines. The aim was to quantify productivity in the mixed-species plantations in comparison to the monocultures, and identify key drivers of productivity including environmental conditions, stand structural characteristics and surrogate measures of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, Shannon’s diversity index and functional groups. We found that monocultures had a much higher productivity than mixtures of the same and other species. In the mixtures, biodiversity and productivity did not have a simple relationship. Instead the proportion of exotic and native species, and the proportion of fast-growing species had a marginally significant positive effect on stand productivity, but no significant relationship was found with species richness or Shannon’s diversity. Instead stand structural characteristics such as density and age were the strongest drivers of increased productivity. Production levels within the mixed-species plantations varied significantly between sites. Overall, we found that the productivity of mixed species plantations was driven more by the characteristics of species present and stand structural characteristics then by simply the number and abundance of species, which suggests management practices are key for balancing multiple objectives to meet sustainable development needs.

Sustainable Road Management in Texas : network-level flexible pavement structural condition analysis using data mining techniques

The research team recognized the value of network-level Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) testing to evaluate the structural condition trends of flexible pavements. However, practical limitations due to the cost of testing, traffic control and safety concerns and the ability to test a large network may discourage some agencies from conducting the network-level FWD testing. For this reason, the surrogate measure of the Structural Condition Index (SCI) is suggested for use. The main purpose of the research presented in this paper is to investigate data mining strategies and to develop a prediction method of the structural condition trends for network-level applications which does not require FWD testing. The research team first evaluated the existing and historical pavement condition, distress, ride, traffic and other data attributes in the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Pavement Maintenance Information System (PMIS), applied data mining strategies to the data, discovered useful patterns and knowledge for SCI value prediction, and finally provided a reasonable measure of pavement structural condition which is correlated to the SCI. To evaluate the performance of the developed prediction approach, a case study was conducted using the SCI data calculated from the FWD data collected on flexible pavements over a 5-year period (2005 – 09) from 354 PMIS sections representing 37 pavement sections on the Texas highway system. The preliminary study results showed that the proposed approach can be used as a supportive pavement structural index in the event when FWD deflection data is not available and help pavement managers identify the timing and appropriate treatment level of preventive maintenance activities.

Suspended sediment properties and suspended sediment flux estimates in an inundated urban environment during a major flood event

During a major flood event, the inundation of urban environments leads to some complicated flow motion most often associated with significant sediment fluxes. In the present study, a series of field measurements were conducted in an inundated section of the City of Brisbane (Australia) about the peak of a major flood in January 2011. Some experiments were performed to use ADV backscatter amplitude as a surrogate estimate of the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) during the flood event. The flood water deposit samples were predominantly silty material with a median particle size about 25 μm and they exhibited a non-Newtonian behavior under rheological testing. In the inundated urban environment during the flood, estimates of suspended sediment concentration presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. The suspended sediment flux data showed some substantial sediment flux amplitudes consistent with the murky appearance of floodwaters. Altogether the results highlighted the large suspended sediment loads and fluctuations in the inundated urban setting associated possibly with a non-Newtonian behavior. During the receding flood, some unusual long-period oscillations were observed (periods about 18 min), although the cause of these oscillations remains unknown. The field deployment was conducted in challenging conditions highlighting a number of practical issues during a natural disaster.