Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Validation of the dietetic confidence scale

Dietitians have reported a lack of confidence in counselling clients with mental health issues. Standardised tools are needed to evaluate programs aiming to improve confidence. The Dietetic Confidence Scale (DCS) was developed to assess dietitians’perception of their capability about working with clients experiencing depression. Exploratory research revealed a 13-item, two-factor model. Dietetic confidence was associated with: 1) Confidence using the Nutrition Care Process; and 2) Confidence in Advocacy for Self-care and Client-care. This study aimed to validate the DCS using this two-factor model.The DCS was administered to 458 dietitians. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) assessed the scale’s psychometric validity. Reliability was measured using Cronbach’s alpha (α) co-efficient. CFA results supported the hypothesised two-factor, 13-item model. The Good Fit Index (GFI = 0.95) indicated a strong fit. Item-factor correlations ranged from r = 0.50 to 0.89. The overall scale and subscales showed good reliability (α = 0.93 to 0.76). This is the first study to validate an instrument that measures dietetic confidence about working with clients experiencing depression. The DCS can be used to measure changes in perceived confidence and identify where further training, mentoring or experience is needed. The findings also suggest that initiatives aimed at building dietitians' confidence about working with clients experiencing depression, should focus on improving client-focused nutrition care, foster advocacy, reflective practice, mentoring and encourage professional support networks. Avenues for future research include further validity and reliability testing to expand the generalisability of results; and modifying the scale for other disease or client populations.

Graphene and carbon nanotubes from arc plasmas : experiment and plasma modeling

Graphene and carbon nanotubes are the most promising nanomaterials for application in various modern nanodevices. The successful production of the nanotubes and graphene in a single process was achieved by using a magnetically enhanced arc discharge in helium atmosphere between carbon and metal electrodes. A 3-D fluid model has been used to investigate the discharge parameters.

Structure of the magnetized sheath of a dusty plasma

A three-component fluid model for a dusty plasma-sheath in an oblique magnetic field is presented. The study is carried out for the conditions when the thermophoretic force associated with the electron temperature gradient is one of the most important forces affecting dust grains in the sheath. It is shown that the sheath properties (the sheath size, the electron, ion and dust particle densities and velocities, the electric field potential, and the forces affecting the dust particles) are functions of the neutral gas pressure and ion temperature, the dust size, the dust material density, and the electron temperature gradient. Effects of plasma-dust collisions on the sheath structure are studied. It is shown that an increase in the forces pushing dust particles to the wall is accompanied by a decrease in the sheath width. The results of this work are particularly relevant to low-temperature plasma-enabled technologies, where effective control of nano- and microsized particles near solid or liquid surfaces is required.

Nonlinear electromagnetic fields in 0.5 MHz inductively coupled plasmas

Radial profiles of magnetic fields in the electrostatic (E) and electromagnetic (H) modes of low-frequency (∼500) inductively coupled plasmas (ICP) were measured using miniature magnetic probes. A simplified plasma fluid model explaining the generation of the second harmonics of the azimuthal magnetic field in the plasma source was proposed. Because of apparent similarity in the procedure of derivation of the pondermotive force-caused nonlinear terms, pronounced generation of the nonlinear static azimuthal magnetic field could be expected.

Development of a new index of balance in adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities

Purposes: The first objective was to propose a new model representing the balance level of adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) using Principal Components Analysis (PCA); and the second objective was to use the results from the PCA recorded by regression method to construct and validate summative scales of the standardized values of the index, which may be useful to facilitate a balance assessment in adults with IDD. Methods: A total of 801 individuals with IDD (509 males) mean 33.1±8.5 years old, were recruited from Special Olympic Games in Spain 2009 to 2012. The participants performed the following tests: the timed-stand test, the single leg stance test with open and closed eyes, the Functional Reach Test, the Expanded Timed-Get-up-and-Go Test. Data was analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA) with Oblimin rotation and Kaiser normalization. We examined the construct validity of our proposed two-factor model underlying balance for adults with IDD. The scores from PCA were recorded by regression method and were standardized. Results: The Component Plot and Rotated Space indicated that a two-factor solution (Dynamic and Static Balance components) was optimal. The PCA with direct Oblimin rotation revealed a satisfactory percentage of total variance explained by the two factors: 51.6 and 21.4%, respectively. The median score standardized for component dynamic and static of the balance index for adults with IDD is shown how references values. Conclusions: Our study may lead to improvements in the understanding and assessment of balance in adults with IDD. First, it confirms that a two-factor model may underlie the balance construct, and second, it provides an index that may be useful for identifying the balance level for adults with IDD.

The mechanical and inflammatory low back pain (MIL) index: development and validation

Abstract Background The purpose of this study was the development of a valid and reliable “Mechanical and Inflammatory Low Back Pain Index” (MIL) for assessment of non-specific low back pain (NSLBP). This 7-item tool assists practitioners in determining whether symptoms are predominantly mechanical or inflammatory. Methods Participants (n = 170, 96 females, age = 38 ± 14 years-old) with NSLP were referred to two Spanish physiotherapy clinics and completed the MIL and the following measures: the Roland Morris Questionnaire (RMQ), SF-12 and “Backache Index” (BAI) physical assessment test. For test-retest reliability, 37 consecutive patients were assessed at baseline and three days later during a non-treatment period. Face and content validity, practical characteristics, factor analysis, internal consistency, discriminant validity and convergent validity were assessed from the full sample. Results A total of 27 potential items that had been identified for inclusion were subsequently reduced to 11 by an expert panel. Four items were then removed due to cross-loading under confirmatory factor analysis where a two-factor model yielded a good fit to the data (χ2 = 14.80, df = 13, p = 0.37, CFI = 0.98, and RMSEA = 0.029). The internal consistency was moderate (α = 0.68 for MLBP; 0.72 for ILBP), test-retest reliability high (ICC = 0.91; 95%CI = 0.88-0.93) and discriminant validity good for either MLBP (AUC = 0.74) and ILBP (AUC = 0.92). Convergent validity was demonstrated through similar but weak correlations between the ILBP and both the RMQ and BAI (r = 0.34, p < 0.001) and the MLBP and BAI (r = 0.38, p < 0.001). Conclusions The MIL is a valid and reliable clinical tool for patients with NSLBP that discriminates between mechanical and inflammatory LBP. Keywords: Low back pain; Psychometrics properties; Pain measurement; Screening tool; Inflammatory; Mechanical

A biphasic response to adenosine in the coronary vasculature of the K+-arrested perfused rat heart

Biphasic vasodilatory responses to adenosine and 5'-N-ethylcarboxamidoadenosine (NECA) were observed in the coronary vasculature of K(+)-arrested perfused rat hearts. Dose-response data for both agonists were best represented by two-site models. For adenosine, two sites with negative log ED50 (pED50) values of 8.1 +/- 0.1 (mean +/- S.E.M) and 5.2 +/- 0.1 were obtained, mediating 31 +/- 2% and 69 +/- 2% of the total response. In the presence of 8-phenyltheophylline, the vasodilatory response to adenosine remained best fitted to a two-site model with pED50 values of 7.0 +/- 0.2 and 5.4 +/- 0.2. The relative contribution of each site to the total response remained unchanged. For NECA, pED50 values of 9.6 +/- 0.1 and 6.8 +/- 0.2 were obtained, representing 48 +/- 3% and 52 +/- 3% of the sites, respectively. In contrast, ATP produced a monophasic response with a pED50 value of 8.8 +/- 0.1. These results provide evidence of adenosine receptor and response heterogeneity in the in situ coronary vasculature.

The validity of personal disturbance scale (DSSI/sAD) in people with diabetes mellitus, using longitudinal data

Despite being used since 1976, Delusions-Symptoms-States-Inventory/states of Anxiety and Depression (DSSI/sAD) has not yet been validated for use among people with diabetes. The aim of this study was to examine the validity of the personal disturbance scale (DSSI/sAD) among women with diabetes using Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy (MUSP) cohort data. The DSSI subscales were compared against DSM-IV disorders, the Mental Component Score of the Short Form 36 (SF-36 MCS), and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Factor analyses, odds ratios, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and diagnostic efficiency tests were used to report findings. Exploratory factor analysis and fit indices confirmed the hypothesized two-factor model of DSSI/sAD. We found significant variations in the DSSI/sAD domain scores that could be explained by CES-D (DSSI-Anxiety: 55%, DSSI-Depression: 46%) and SF-36 MCS (DSSI-Anxiety: 66%, DSSI-Depression: 56%). The DSSI subscales predicted DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety disorders. The ROC analyses show that although the DSSI symptoms and DSM-IV disorders were measured concurrently the estimates of concordance remained only moderate. The findings demonstrate that the DSSI/sAD items have similar relationships to one another in both the diabetes and non-diabetes data sets which therefore suggest that they have similar interpretations.

Compressive and shear force generated in the lumbar spine of female rowers

Rowers have and accrue greater lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) associated with mechanical loading produced during rowing. The aim of this study was to estimate the mechanical loading generated at the lumbar spine (LS) that is apparently providing an osteogenic benefit. The cohort comprised 14 female rowers (average age: 19.7yrs; height: 170.9 cm, weight: 59.5 kg) and 14 female matched controls (average age: 20.9 m yrs; height: 167.5 cm; weight: 58.1 kg). BMD was assessed using the Hologic QDR 2000+ bone densitometer, indicating higher lumbar spine BMD in the rowers compared to the control subjects (1,069 +/- 0.1 vs. 1,027 +/- 0.1 g/cm2). No significant difference existed for BMD at any other site. All rowers performed a six-minute simulated race on a Concept II rowing ergometer. Mechanical loading generated at the lumbar spine during this task was assessed using a two-dimensional model of the spine, enabling the calculation of the compressive and shear forces at L4/L5. The shear force was the joint reaction force perpendicular to the spine at the L4/L5 joint. Peak compressive and shear force at the lumbar spine of the rowers were 2,694 +/- 609 (N) and 660 +/- 117 (N), respectively. Peak compressive force at the LS relative to body weight was 4.6 times body weight. The literature would suggest that forces of this magnitude, generated at the LS during maximal rowing, may be contributing to the site specific higher LS BMD found in the rowers.

Commodity taxation and parallel imports

We examine the interaction between commodity taxes and parallel imports in a two-country model with imperfect competition. While governments determine non-cooperatively their commodity tax rate, the volume of parallel imports is determined endogenously by the retailing sector. We compare the positive and normative implications of having commodity taxes based on destination or origin principle. We show that, as the volume of parallel imports increases, non-cooperative origin taxes converge, while destination taxes diverge. Moreover, origin taxes are more similar and lead to higher aggregate welfare levels than destination taxes.

Foreign aid, domestic investment and welfare

This paper examines the welfare implications of temporary foreign aid in a simple two-period, two-country model of trade. Domestic investment is endogenous, providing an important link between aid in period one and the terms of trade in periods one and two. Transfer-induced changes in the terms of trade redistribute present and future income between the donor and the recipient. In the presence of barriers to international borrowing and lending, such redistribution gives rise to the possibility of temporary aid being both potentially and strictly Pareto improving.

Logic of aid in an intertemporal setting

The paper studies the welfare implications of temporary foreign aid in the context of a simple two-country model of trade. In addition to its usual effects, a transfer of income in one period is assumed to influence the preferences of the recipient country in the following period. The implied changes in the terms of trade over the two periods are consistent with a number of possible outcomes with respect to the intertemporal welfare of the donor, the recipient, and the world as a whole. Particular attention is devoted to the conditions for strict Pareto improvement and the circumstances under which temporary aid transactions are likely to occur.

The transfer problem and the intertemporal terms of trade

In this paper the effects of a transfer on the intertemporal terms of trade are examined in the context of a simple two-country, two-period model. When intertemporal trade occurs because the two economies have different rates of time preference, a transfer improves the terms of trade of the paying country. Alternatively, when trade occurs owing to international differences in the endowments of goods over the two periods, the effect of a transfer depends on (a) the relationship between the interest rate and the rates of time preference of the two countries and (b) the relationship between their elasticities of intertemporal consumption substitution.

Optimal fluid injection strategies for in situ mineral leaching in two-dimensions

This paper examines the ground-water flow problem associated with the injection and recovery of certain corrosive fluids into mineral bearing rock. The aim is to dissolve the minerals in situ, and then recover them in solution. In general, it is not possible to recover all the injected fluid, which is of concern economically and environmentally. However, a new strategy is proposed here, that allows all the leaching fluid to be recovered. A mathematical model of the situation is solved approximately using an asymptotic solution, and exactly using a boundary integral approach. Solutions are shown for two-dimensional flow, which is of some practical interest as it is achievable in old mine tunnels, for example.