Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

An explorative qualitative analysis of participants' experience of using kava versus placebo in an RCT. (Clinical report)

Many randomised controlled trials (RCT) have been conducted using Piper methysticum (kava), however no qualitative research exploring the experience of taking kava during a clinical trial has previously been reported. ---------- Patients and methods: A qualitative research component (in the form of semi structured and open ended written questions) was incorporated into an RCT to explore the experiences of those participating in a clinical trial of kava. The written questions were provided to participants at weeks 2 and 3 (after randomisation, after each controlled phase). The researcher and participants were blinded as to whether they were taking kava or placebo. Two open ended questions were posed to elucidate their experiences from taking either kava or placebo. Thematic analysis was undertaken and researcher triangulation employed to ensure analytical rigour. Key themes after the kava phases were a reduction in anxiety and stress, and calming or relaxing mental effects. Other themes related to improvement in sleep and in somatic anxiety symptoms. ---------- Results: Kava use did not cause any serious adverse reactions although a few respondents reported nausea or other gastrointestinal side effects. This represents the first documented qualitative investigation of the experience of taking kava during a clinical trial. The primary themes involved anxiolytic and calming effects, with only a minor theme reflecting side effects. Our exploratory qualitative data was consistent with the significant quantitative results revealed in the study and provides additional support to suggest the trial results did not exclude any important positive or negative effects (at least as experienced by the trial participants).

Impacts and opportunities : resident's view on sustainable development of tourism in regional Queensland, Australia

Tourism development is a priority for rural and regional areas of Australia. The challenge is how to develop the tourism industry in a sustainable manner. As part of a larger project investigating community perceptions of opportunities, strategies and challenges in regional sustainable development, this article explores participant's views and opinions of tourism development. Through purposive sampling, 28 local community leaders and residents in the Darling Downs region in Queensland, Australia, participated in four semi-structured focus groups. This paper focuses on two of these focus groups, where tourism was a critical issue. Participants were generally positive about the tourism industry and its impacts on their community, although they expressed several triple bottom line concerns about economic, environmental and scoial issues. Four key themes emerged: appropriate land use management, limited resources and ageing/insufficient infrastructure, preservaation of community heritage and lifestyle, and regional conflict. Residents supported sustainable tourism development and wanted to be more actively involved in decision-making, demanding greater transparency - and true engagement - from local government.

Loneliness and classroom participation in adolescents with learning disabilities : a social cognitive view

Students with learning disabilities (LD) often experience significant feelings of loneliness. There is some evidence to suggest that these feelings of loneliness may be related to social difficulties that are linked to their learning disability. Adolescents experience more loneliness than any other age group, primarily because this is a time of identity formation and self-evaluation. Therefore, adolescents with learning disabilities are highly likely to experience the negative feelings of loneliness. Many areas of educational research have highlighted the impact of negative feelings on learning. This begs the question, =are adolescents with learning disabilities doubly disadvantaged in regard to their learning?‘ That is, if their learning experience is already problematic, does loneliness exacerbate these learning difficulties? This thesis reveals the findings of a doctoral project which examined this complicated relationship between loneliness and classroom participation using a social cognitive framework. In this multiple case-study design, narratives were constructed using classroom observations and interviews which were conducted with 4 adolescent students (2 girls and 2 boys, from years 9-12) who were identified as likely to be experiencing learning disabilities. Discussion is provided on the method used to identify students with learning disabilities and the related controversy of using disability labels. A key aspect of the design was that it allowed the students to relate their school experiences and have their stories told. The design included an ethnographic element in its focus on the interactions of the students within the school as a culture and elements of narrative inquiry were used, particularly in reporting the results. The narratives revealed all participants experienced problematic social networks. Further, an alarmingly high level of bullying was discovered. Participants reported that when they were feeling rejected or were missing a valued other they had little cognitive energy for learning and did not want to be in school. Absenteeism amongst the group was high, but this was also true for the rest of the school population. A number of relationships emerged from the narratives using social cognitive theory. These relationships highlighted the impact of cognitive, behavioural and environmental factors in the school experience of lonely students with learning disabilities. This approach reflects the social model of disability that frames the research.

Pondering policy and parental perspectives : how parents view their role in shaping early childhood public policy

The focus of this paper is the role of Australian parents in early childhood education and care (ECEC), in particular, their role in shaping ECEC public policy. The paper reports the findings of a study investigating the different ways in which a group of parents viewed and experienced this role. Set against a policy backdrop where parents are positioned as 'consumers' and 'participants' in ECEC, the study employed a phenomenographic research approach to describe this role as viewed and experienced by parents. The study identified four logically related, qualitatively different ways of constituting this role among this group of parents, ranging from 'no role in shaping public policy' (the no role conception) to 'participating in policy decision-making, particularly where policy was likely to affect their child and family (the participating in policy decision-making conception). The study provides an insider-perspective on the role of parents in shaping policy and highlights variation in how this role is constituted by parents. The study also identifies factors perceived by parents as influencing their participation and discusses their implications for both policy and practice.

The international search for ethics norms : which consumer behaviors do consumers consider (un)acceptable?

Purpose: Businesses cannot rely on their customers to always do the right thing. To help researchers and service providers better understand the dark (and light) side of customer behavior, this study aims to aggregate and investigate perceptions of consumer ethics from young consumers on five continents. The study seeks to present a profile of consumer behavioral norms, how ethical inclinations have evolved over time, and country differences. ---------- Design/methodology/approach: Data were collected from ten countries across five continents between 1997 and 2007. A self-administered questionnaire containing 14 consumer scenarios asked respondents to rate acceptability of questionable consumer actions. ---------- Findings: Overall, consumers found four of the 14 questionable consumer actions acceptable. Illegal activities were mostly viewed as unethical, while some legal actions that were against company policy were viewed less harshly. Differences across continents emerged, with Europeans being the least critical, while Asians and Africans shared duties as most critical of consumer actions. Over time, consumers have become less tolerant of questionable behaviors. ---------- Practical implications: Service providers should use the findings of this study to better understand the service customer. Knowing what customers in general believe is ethical or unethical can help service designers focus on the aspects of the technology or design most vulnerable to customer deviance. ---------- Multinationals already know they must adapt their business practices to the market in which they are operating, but they must also adapt their expectations as to the behavior of the corresponding consumer base. Originality/value: This investigation into consumer ethics helps businesses understand what their customer base believes is the right thing in their role as customer. This is a large-scale study of consumer ethics including 3,739 respondents on five continents offering an evolving view of the ethical inclinations of young consumers.

Integrating the resource-based view and transaction cost economics in immigrant business performance

This paper presents a new integrated framework that integrates the resource-based view and transaction cost economics to explain the phenomenon of immigrant entrepreneurship. We extend the existing literature on immigrant entrepreneurship by identifying different types of ethnic network resources and demonstrating how these resources interact with transaction costs in the context of Chinese immigrants. Thus, our study contributes to the literature by providing a theoretical framework which identifies mechanisms immigrant entrepreneurs use to strategically deploy resources to minimize costs and maximize performance outcomes.

Theoretical model of user acceptance : in the view of measuring success in web personalization

This paper attempts to develop a theoretical acceptance model for measuring Web personalization success. Key factors impacting Web personalization acceptance are identified from a detailed literature review. The final model is then cast in a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework comprising nineteen manifest variables, which are grouped into three focal behaviors of Web users. These variables could provide a framework for better understanding of numerous factors that contribute to the success measures of Web personalization technology. Especially, those concerning the quality of personalized features and how personalized information through personalized Website can be delivered to the user. The interrelationship between success constructs is also explained. Empirical validations of this theoretical model are expected on future research.

Effects of reduced contrast on the perception and control of speed when driving

Misperception of speed under low-contrast conditions has been identified as a possible contributor to motor vehicle crashes in fog. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the effects of reduced contrast on drivers’ perception and control of speed while driving under real-world conditions. Fourteen participants drove around a 2.85 km closed road course under three visual conditions: clear view and with two levels of reduced contrast created by diffusing filters on the windscreen and side windows. Three dependent measures were obtained, without view of the speedometer, on separate laps around the road course: verbal estimates of speed; adjustment of speed to instructed levels (25 to 70 km h-1); and estimation of minimum stopping distance. The results showed that drivers traveled more slowly under low-contrast conditions. Reduced contrast had little or no effect on either verbal judgments of speed or estimates of minimum stopping distance. Speed adjustments were significantly slower under low-contrast than clear conditions, indicating that, contrary to studies of object motion, drivers perceived themselves to be traveling faster under conditions of reduced contrast. Under real-world driving conditions, drivers’ ability to perceive and control their speed was not adversely affected by large variations in the contrast of their surroundings. These findings suggest that perceptions of self-motion and object motion involve neural processes that are differentially affected by variations in stimulus contrast as encountered in fog.

Lolipop: A downtown Auckland view on Japanese street fashion

Loli-Pop brings together the relationships between the Loli-Goth and popular culture, and the strong association of the Loli-Goth with the doll, including a selection from Hardy Bernal’s personal collection of Japanese Lolita dolls. This display is supported by the highlight of the show, five full-sized garments created and constructed by AUT University Fashion staff members, Angie Finn, Yvonne Stewart, Lize Niemczyk, Gabriella Trussardi, Carmel Donnelly and Kathryn Hardy Bernal, which demonstrate the designers’ own interpretations of Gothic & Lolita, inspired by Japanese street style. The exhibit is complimented by a backdrop of photographs that illustrate the impact of the outfits when worn, modelled by AUT University Bachelor of Fashion Design students, Emily Huang, Shangshang Cookie Wang, Emily Wang, Shiahug-Wen Sean Kuo and Yanling Wang.

Similarity metrics within a point of view

In vector space based approaches to natural language processing, similarity is commonly measured by taking the angle between two vectors representing words or documents in a semantic space. This is natural from a mathematical point of view, as the angle between unit vectors is, up to constant scaling, the only unitarily invariant metric on the unit sphere. However, similarity judgement tasks reveal that human subjects fail to produce data which satisfies the symmetry and triangle inequality requirements for a metric space. A possible conclusion, reached in particular by Tversky et al., is that some of the most basic assumptions of geometric models are unwarranted in the case of psychological similarity, a result which would impose strong limits on the validity and applicability vector space based (and hence also quantum inspired) approaches to the modelling of cognitive processes. This paper proposes a resolution to this fundamental criticism of of the applicability of vector space models of cognition. We argue that pairs of words imply a context which in turn induces a point of view, allowing a subject to estimate semantic similarity. Context is here introduced as a point of view vector (POVV) and the expected similarity is derived as a measure over the POVV's. Different pairs of words will invoke different contexts and different POVV's. Hence the triangle inequality ceases to be a valid constraint on the angles. We test the proposal on a few triples of words and outline further research.

A Stochastic View of Optimal Regret through Minimax Duality

We study the regret of optimal strategies for online convex optimization games. Using von Neumann's minimax theorem, we show that the optimal regret in this adversarial setting is closely related to the behavior of the empirical minimization algorithm in a stochastic process setting: it is equal to the maximum, over joint distributions of the adversary's action sequence, of the difference between a sum of minimal expected losses and the minimal empirical loss. We show that the optimal regret has a natural geometric interpretation, since it can be viewed as the gap in Jensen's inequality for a concave functional--the minimizer over the player's actions of expected loss--defined on a set of probability distributions. We use this expression to obtain upper and lower bounds on the regret of an optimal strategy for a variety of online learning problems. Our method provides upper bounds without the need to construct a learning algorithm; the lower bounds provide explicit optimal strategies for the adversary. Peter L. Bartlett, Alexander Rakhlin