A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the bias-adjusted estimators of the fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating between short-length time series. As the length of the time series increases, the performance of the proposed test improves, but the benefit of bias-adjustment reduces. The proposed hypothesis test is applied to two real data sets: the annual real GDP per capita of six European countries, and quarterly real GDP per capita of five European countries. The application results demonstrate that the proposed test displays reasonably good performance in classifying relatively short time series.

Emotional climate and behavioral management during sleep time in early childhood education settings

The majority of children cease napping between 3 and 5 years of age yet, internationally, the allocation of a sleep time during the day for children of this age remains a practice in many early childhood education (ECE) settings. These dual circumstances present a disjuncture between children's sleep needs and center practices, that may cause conflict for staff, increase stress for children and escalate negative emotional climate in the room. Testing this hypothesis requires observation of both the emotional climate and behavioral management used in ECE rooms that extends into the sleep time. This study was the first to apply the Classroom Assessment and Scoring System (CLASS) Pre-K (Pianta, La Paro, & Hamre, 2008) to observe the emotional climate and behavioral management during sleep time. Pilot results indicated that the CLASS Pre-K functioned reliably to measure emotional climate and behavioral management in sleep time. However, new sleep-specific examples of the dimensions used were developed, to help orient fieldworkers to the CLASS Pre-K rating system in the sleep time context. The CLASS was then used to assess emotional climate and behavior management between the non-sleep and sleep time sessions, in 113 ECE rooms in Queensland, Australia. In these rooms 2.114 children were observed. Of these children, 71% did not sleep at any point during the allotted sleep times. There was a significant drop in emotional climate and behavioral management between the non-sleep and sleep-time sessions. Furthermore, the duration of mandated sleep time (a period of time where no activities are provided to non-sleeping children) accounted for significant independent variance in the observed emotional climate during sleep-time. The CLASS Pre-K presents a valuable tool to assess the emotional climate and behavior management during sleep-time and draws attention to the need for further studies of sleep time in ECE settings.

Characterization of the tail-specific protease (Tsp) from Legionella

Bacterial tail-specific proteases (Tsps) have been attributed a wide variety of functions including intracellular virulence, cell wall morphology, proteolytic signal cascades and stress response. This study tested the hypothesis that Tsp has a key function for the transmissive form of Legionella pneumophila. A tsp mutant was generated in Legionella pneumophila 130b and the characteristics of this strain and the isogenic wild-type were examined using a range of growth and proteomic analyses. Recombinant Tsp protein was also produced and analyzed. The L. pneumophila tsp mutant showed no defect in growth on rich media or during thermo-osmotic stress conditions. In addition, no defects in cellular morphology were observed when the cells were examined using transmission electron microscopy. Purified recombinant Tsp was found to be an active protease with a narrow substrate range. Proteome analysis using iTRAQ (5% coverage of the proteome) found that, of those proteins detected, only 5 had different levels in the tsp mutant compared to the wild type. ACP (Acyl Carrier Protein), which has a key role for Legionella differentiation to the infectious form, was reduced in the tsp mutant; however, tsp(-) was able to infect and replicate inside macrophages to the same extent as the wild type. Combined, these data demonstrate that Tsp is a protease but is not essential for Legionella growth or cell infection. Thus, Tsp may have functional redundancy in Legionella.

Predicting transactive memory systems in multidisciplinary teams : The interplay between team and professional identities

In explaining how communication quality predicts TMS in multidisciplinary teams, we drew on the social identity approach to investigate the mediating role of team identification and the moderating role of professional identification. Recognizing that professional identification could trigger intergroup biases among professional subgroups, or alternatively, could bring resources to the team, we explored the potential moderating role of professional identification in the relationship between team identification and TMS. Using data collected from 882 healthcare personnel working in 126 multidisciplinary hospital teams, results supported our hypothesis that perceived communication quality predicted TMS through team identification. Furthermore, findings provided support for a resource view of professional subgroup identities with results indicating that high levels of professional identification compensated for low levels of team identification in predicting TMS. We provide recommendations on how social identities may be used to promote TMS in multidisciplinary teams.

Cryptanalysis of SIMON Variants with Connections

SIMON is a family of 10 lightweight block ciphers published by Beaulieu et al. from the United States National Security Agency (NSA). A cipher in this family with K -bit key and N -bit block is called SIMON N/K . We present several linear characteristics for reduced-round SIMON32/64 that can be used for a key-recovery attack and extend them further to attack other variants of SIMON. Moreover, we provide results of key recovery analysis using several impossible differential characteristics starting from 14 out of 32 rounds for SIMON32/64 to 22 out of 72 rounds for SIMON128/256. In some cases the presented observations do not directly yield an attack, but provide a basis for further analysis for the specific SIMON variant. Finally, we exploit a connection between linear and differential characteristics for SIMON to construct linear characteristics for different variants of reduced-round SIMON. Our attacks extend to all variants of SIMON covering more rounds compared to any known results using linear cryptanalysis. We present a key recovery attack against SIMON128/256 which covers 35 out of 72 rounds with data complexity 2123 . We have implemented our attacks for small scale variants of SIMON and our experiments confirm the theoretical bias presented in this work.

Inference and hypothesis in ethnographic studies

This chapter explores the possibility and exigencies of employing hypotheses, or educated guesses, as the basis for ethnographic research design. The authors’ goal is to examine whether using hypotheses might provide a path to resolve some of the challenges to knowledge claims produced by ethnographic studies. Through resolution of the putative division between qualitative and quantitative research traditions , it is argued that hypotheses can serve as inferential warrants in qualitative and ethnographic studies.

The subcortical confinement hypothesis: A neurological model for schizotypal hallucinations

Introduction Different types of hallucinations are symptomatic of different conditions. Schizotypal hallucinations are unique in that they follow existing delusional narrative patterns: they are often bizarre, they are generally multimodal, and they are particularly vivid (the experience of a newsreader abusing you personally over the TV is both visual and aural. Patients who feel and hear silicone chips under their skin suffer from haptic hallucinations as well as aural ones, etc.) Although there are a number of hypotheses for hallucinations, few cogently grapple the sheer bizarreness of the ones experienced in schizotypal psychosis. Methods A review-based hypothesis, traversing theory from the molecular level to phenomenological expression as a distinct and recognizable symptomatology. Conclusion Hallucinations appear to be caused by a two-fold dysfunction in the mesofrontal dopamine pathway, which is considered here to mediate attention of different types: in the anterior medial frontal lobe, the receptors (largely D1 type) mediate declarative awareness, whereas the receptors in the striatum (largely D2 type) mediate latent awareness of known schemata. In healthy perception, most of the perceptual load is performed by the latter: by the top-down predictive and mimetic engine, with the bottom-up mechanism being used as a secondary tool to bring conscious deliberation to stimuli that fails to match up against expectations. In schizophrenia, the predictive mode is over-stimulated, while the bottom-up feedback mechanism atrophies. The dysfunctional distribution pattern effectively confines dopamine activity to the striatum, thereby stimulating the structural components of thought and behaviour: well-learned routines, narrative structures, lexica, grammar, schemata, archetypes, and other procedural resources. Meanwhile, the loss of activity in the frontal complex reduces the capacity for declarative awareness and for processing anything that fails to meet expectations.

The origins and radiation of Australian Coptotermes termites: From rainforest to desert dwellers

The termite genus Coptotermes (Rhinotermitidae) is found in Asia, Africa, Central/South America and Australia, with greatest diversity in Asia. Some Coptotermes species are amongst the world’s most damaging invasive termites, but the genus is also significant for containing the most sophisticated mound-building termites outside the family Termitidae. These mound-building Coptotermes occur only in Australia. Despite its economic and evolutionary significance, the biogeographic history of the genus has not been well investigated, nor has the evolution of the Australian mound-building species. We present here the first phylogeny of the Australian Coptotermes to include representatives from all described species. We combined our new data with previously generated data to estimate the first phylogeny to include representatives from all continents where the genus is found. We also present the first estimation of divergence dates during the evolution of the genus. We found the Australian Coptotermes to be monophyletic and most closely related to the Asian Coptotermes, with considerable genetic diversity in some Australian taxa possibly representing undescribed species. The Australian mound-building species did not form a monophyletic clade. Our ancestral state reconstruction analysis indicated that the ancestral Australian Coptotermes was likely to have been a tree nester, and that mound-building behaviour has arisen multiple times. The Australian Coptotermes were found to have diversified ∼13 million years ago, which plausibly matches with the narrowing of the Arafura Sea allowing Asian taxa to cross into Australia. The first diverging Coptotermes group was found to be African, casting doubt on the previously raised hypothesis that the genus has an Asian origin.

Molecular data extend Australian Cricotopus midge (Chironomidae) species diversity, and provide a phylogenetic hypothesis for biogeography and freshwater monitoring

Resolving species relationships and confirming diagnostic morphological characters for insect clades that are highly plastic, and/or include morphologically cryptic species, is crucial for both academic and applied reasons. Within the true fly (Diptera) family Chironomidae, a most ubiquitous freshwater insect group, the genera CricotopusWulp, 1874 and ParatrichocladiusSantos-Abreu, 1918 have long been taxonomically confusing. Indeed, until recently the Australian fauna had been examined in just two unpublished theses: most species were known by informal manuscript names only, with no concept of relationships. Understanding species limits, and the associated ecology and evolution, is essential to address taxonomic sufficiency in biomonitoring surveys. Immature stages are collected routinely, but tolerance is generalized at the genus level, despite marked variation among species. Here, we explored this issue using a multilocus molecular phylogenetic approach, including the standard mitochondrial barcode region, and tested explicitly for phylogenetic signal in ecological tolerance of species. Additionally, we addressed biogeographical patterns by conducting Bayesian divergence time estimation. We sampled all but one of the now recognized Australian Cricotopus species and tested monophyly using representatives from other austral and Asian locations. Cricotopus is revealed as paraphyletic by the inclusion of a nested monophyletic Paratrichocladius, with in-group diversification beginning in the Eocene. Previous morphological species concepts are largely corroborated, but some additional cryptic diversity is revealed. No significant relationship was observed between the phylogenetic position of a species and its ecology, implying either that tolerance to deleterious environmental impacts is a convergent trait among many Cricotopus species or that sensitive and restricted taxa have diversified into more narrow niches from a widely tolerant ancestor.

A model to explain specific cellular communications and cellular harmony: - a hypothesis of coupled cells and interactive coupling molecules

Background The various cell types and their relative numbers in multicellular organisms are controlled by growth factors and related extracellular molecules which affect genetic expression pathways. However, these substances may have both/either inhibitory and/or stimulatory effects on cell division and cell differentiation depending on the cellular environment. It is not known how cells respond to these substances in such an ambiguous way. Many cellular effects have been investigated and reported using cell culture from cancer cell lines in an effort to define normal cellular behaviour using these abnormal cells. A model is offered to explain the harmony of cellular life in multicellular organisms involving interacting extracellular substances. Methods A basic model was proposed based on asymmetric cell division and evidence to support the hypothetical model was accumulated from the literature. In particular, relevant evidence was selected for the Insulin-Like Growth Factor system from the published data, especially from certain cell lines, to support the model. The evidence has been selective in an attempt to provide a picture of normal cellular responses, derived from the cell lines. Results The formation of a pair of coupled cells by asymmetric cell division is an integral part of the model as is the interaction of couplet molecules derived from these cells. Each couplet cell will have a receptor to measure the amount of the couplet molecule produced by the other cell; each cell will be receptor-positive or receptor-negative for the respective receptors. The couplet molecules will form a binary complex whose level is also measured by the cell. The hypothesis is heavily supported by selective collection of circumstantial evidence and by some direct evidence. The basic model can be expanded to other cellular interactions. Conclusions These couplet cells and interacting couplet molecules can be viewed as a mechanism that provides a controlled and balanced division-of-labour between the two progeny cells, and, in turn, their progeny. The presence or absence of a particular receptor for a couplet molecule will define a cell type and the presence or absence of many such receptors will define the cell types of the progeny within cell lineages.

Improved linear cryptanalysis of reduced-round SIMON-32 and SIMON-48

In this paper we analyse two variants of SIMON family of light-weight block ciphers against variants of linear cryptanalysis and present the best linear cryptanalytic results on these variants of reduced-round SIMON to date. We propose a time-memory trade-off method that finds differential/linear trails for any permutation allowing low Hamming weight differential/linear trails. Our method combines low Hamming weight trails found by the correlation matrix representing the target permutation with heavy Hamming weight trails found using a Mixed Integer Programming model representing the target differential/linear trail. Our method enables us to find a 17-round linear approximation for SIMON-48 which is the best current linear approximation for SIMON-48. Using only the correlation matrix method, we are able to find a 14-round linear approximation for SIMON-32 which is also the current best linear approximation for SIMON-32. The presented linear approximations allow us to mount a 23-round key recovery attack on SIMON-32 and a 24-round Key recovery attack on SIMON-48/96 which are the current best results on SIMON-32 and SIMON-48. In addition we have an attack on 24 rounds of SIMON-32 with marginal complexity.

The dopamine-mediation of perception hypothesis and the implications for schizophrenia

- Background Following Kapur’s hypothesis [1] that schizophrenia is the intensification of phenomenological experience caused by the upregulation of dopamine, a survey of observed dopamine responses to phenomenal information was conducted. - Method An integrative study. - Results When considered in the light of the ecological theory of perception (ETP) [2] and global workspace theory (GBT) [3] Kapur’s hypothesis makes sense: Both the ETP and the GBT require an agent to attribute salience to perceptual information in order to filter an infinite array of available information and usefully sort information by importance. Dopamine may be the primary agent for this purpose. Thus perception itself is suspected as being a dopamine-mediated, and the symptoms and signs of schizophrenia may therefore be the result of dopamine dysfunction. - Conclusions The application of both ETP and GBT to the dopamine hypothesis gives the hypothesis a much-needed causal mechanism and the confl uence of these theories also provides ETP with a neurological perceptual fi lter. This paper provides a compelling model for schizophrenia; a hypothesis that ties perceptual theory to Kapur ’ s concept of dopamine-mediated salience.

Clinical reasoning: The relative contribution of identification, interpretation and hypothesis errors to misdiagnosis

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the types of errors in clinical reasoning that contribute to poor diagnostic performance at different levels of medical training and experience. Three cohorts of subjects, second- and fourth- (final) year medical students and a group of general practitioners, completed a set of clinical reasoning problems. The responses of those whose scores fell below the 25th centile were analysed to establish the stage of the clinical reasoning process - identification of relevant information, interpretation or hypothesis generation - at which most errors occurred and whether this was dependent on problem difficulty and level of medical experience. Results indicate that hypothesis errors decrease as expertise increases but that identification and interpretation errors increase. This may be due to inappropriate use of pattern recognition or to failure of the knowledge base. Furthermore, although hypothesis errors increased in line with problem difficulty, identification and interpretation errors decreased. A possible explanation is that as problem difficulty increases, subjects at all levels of expertise are less able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant clinical features and so give equal consideration to all information contained within a case. It is concluded that the development of clinical reasoning in medical students throughout the course of their pre-clinical and clinical education may be enhanced by both an analysis of the clinical reasoning process and a specific focus on each of the stages at which errors commonly occur.