Anticipatory timing in algorithmic rhythm generation

Generative music algorithms frequently operate by making musical decisions in a sequence, with each step of the sequence incorporating the local musical context in the decision process. The context is generally a short window of past musical actions. What is not generally included in the context is future actions. For real-time systems this is because the future is unknown. Offline systems also frequently utilise causal algorithms either for reasons of efficiency [1] or to simulate perceptual constraints [2]. However, even real-time agents can incorporate knowledge of their own future actions by utilising some form of planning. We argue that for rhythmic generation the incorporation of a limited form of planning - anticipatory timing - offers a worthwhile trade-off between musical salience and efficiency. We give an example of a real-time generative agent - the Jambot - that utilises anticipatory timing for rhythmic generation. We describe its operation, and compare its output with and without anticipatory timing.

GYAN: A methodology for rule extraction from artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) learning methods provide a robust and non-linear approach to approximating the target function for many classification, regression and clustering problems. ANNs have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide variety of practical problems. However, there are strong arguments as to why ANNs are not sufficient for the general representation of knowledge. The arguments are the poor comprehensibility of the learned ANN, and the inability to represent explanation structures. The overall objective of this thesis is to address these issues by: (1) explanation of the decision process in ANNs in the form of symbolic rules (predicate rules with variables); and (2) provision of explanatory capability by mapping the general conceptual knowledge that is learned by the neural networks into a knowledge base to be used in a rule-based reasoning system. A multi-stage methodology GYAN is developed and evaluated for the task of extracting knowledge from the trained ANNs. The extracted knowledge is represented in the form of restricted first-order logic rules, and subsequently allows user interaction by interfacing with a knowledge based reasoner. The performance of GYAN is demonstrated using a number of real world and artificial data sets. The empirical results demonstrate that: (1) an equivalent symbolic interpretation is derived describing the overall behaviour of the ANN with high accuracy and fidelity, and (2) a concise explanation is given (in terms of rules, facts and predicates activated in a reasoning episode) as to why a particular instance is being classified into a certain category.

Complaining in cyberspace : the motives and forms of hotel guests’ complaints online

Traditionally, consumers who have been dissatisfied with service have typically complained to the frontline personnel or to a manager in either a direct (face-to-face, over the phone) manner, indirect by writing, or done nothing but told friends and family of the incident. More recently, the Internet has provided various “new” ways to air a grievance, especially when little might have been done at the point of service failure. With the opportunity to now spread word-of-mouth globally, consumers have the potential to impact the standing of a brand or a firm's reputation. The hotel industry is particularly vulnerable, as an increasing number of bookings are undertaken via the Internet and the decision process is likely to be influenced by what other previous guests might post on many booking-linked sites. We conducted a qualitative study of a key travel site to ascertain the forms and motives of complaints made online about hotels and resorts. 200 web-based consumer complaints were analyzed using NVivo 8 software. Findings revealed that consumers report a wide range of service failures on the Internet. They tell a highly descriptive, persuasive, and credible story, often motivated by altruism or, at the other end of the continuum, by revenge. These stories have the power to influence potential guests to book or not book accommodation at the affected properties. Implications for managers of hotels and resorts are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of a central venous catheter care bundle

Background: A bundled approach to central venous catheter care is currently being promoted as an effective way of preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). Consumables used in the bundled approach are relatively inexpensive which may lead to the conclusion that the bundle is cost-effective. However, this fails to consider the nontrivial costs of the monitoring and education activities required to implement the bundle, or that alternative strategies are available to prevent CR-BSI. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a bundle to prevent CR-BSI in Australian intensive care patients. ---------- Methods and Findings: A Markov decision model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the bundle relative to remaining with current practice (a non-bundled approach to catheter care and uncoated catheters), or use of antimicrobial catheters. We assumed the bundle reduced relative risk of CR-BSI to 0.34. Given uncertainty about the cost of the bundle, threshold analyses were used to determine the maximum cost at which the bundle remained cost-effective relative to the other approaches to infection control. Sensitivity analyses explored how this threshold alters under different assumptions about the economic value placed on bed-days and health benefits gained by preventing infection. If clinicians are prepared to use antimicrobial catheters, the bundle is cost-effective if national 18-month implementation costs are below $1.1 million. If antimicrobial catheters are not an option the bundle must cost less than $4.3 million. If decision makers are only interested in obtaining cash-savings for the unit, and place no economic value on either the bed-days or the health benefits gained through preventing infection, these cost thresholds are reduced by two-thirds.---------- Conclusions: A catheter care bundle has the potential to be cost-effective in the Australian intensive care setting. Rather than anticipating cash-savings from this intervention, decision makers must be prepared to invest resources in infection control to see efficiency improvements.

Note sequence morphing algorithms for performance of electronic dance music

This paper describes algorithms that can musically augment the realtime performance of electronic dance music by generating new musical material by morphing. Note sequence morphing involves the algorithmic generation of music that smoothly transitions between two existing musical segments. The potential of musical morphing in electronic dance music is outlined and previous research is summarised; including discussions of relevant music theoretic and algorithmic concepts. An outline and explanation is provided of a novel Markov morphing process that uses similarity measures to construct transition matrices. The paper reports on a ‘focus-concert’ study used to evaluate this morphing algorithm and to compare its output with performances from a professional DJ. Discussions of this trial include reflections on some of the aesthetic characteristics of note sequence morphing. The research suggests that the proposed morphing technique could be effectively used in some electronic dance music contexts.

Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation

Gradient-based approaches to direct policy search in reinforcement learning have received much recent attention as a means to solve problems of partial observability and to avoid some of the problems associated with policy degradation in value-function methods. In this paper we introduce GPOMDP, a simulation-based algorithm for generating a biased estimate of the gradient of the average reward in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) controlled by parameterized stochastic policies. A similar algorithm was proposed by Kimura, Yamamura, and Kobayashi (1995). The algorithm's chief advantages are that it requires storage of only twice the number of policy parameters, uses one free parameter β ∈ [0,1) (which has a natural interpretation in terms of bias-variance trade-off), and requires no knowledge of the underlying state. We prove convergence of GPOMDP, and show how the correct choice of the parameter β is related to the mixing time of the controlled POMDP. We briefly describe extensions of GPOMDP to controlled Markov chains, continuous state, observation and control spaces, multiple-agents, higher-order derivatives, and a version for training stochastic policies with internal states. In a companion paper (Baxter, Bartlett, & Weaver, 2001) we show how the gradient estimates generated by GPOMDP can be used in both a traditional stochastic gradient algorithm and a conjugate-gradient procedure to find local optima of the average reward. ©2001 AI Access Foundation and Morgan Kaufmann Publishers. All rights reserved.

Which procurement system? Towards a universal procurement selection technique

Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.

Perspectives on research in project management : the nine schools

This paper demonstrates that project management is a developing field of academic study in management, of considerable diversity and richness, which can make a valuable contribution to the development of management knowledge, as well as being of considerable economic importance. The paper reviews the substantial progress and trends of research in the subject, which has been grouped into nine major schools of thought: optimization, modelling, governance, behaviour, success, decision, process, contingency, and marketing. The paper addresses interactions between the different schools and with other related management fields, and provides insights into current and potential research in each and across these schools.

Selection criteria in the search for a sperm donor: Behavioural traits versus physical appearance

Despite extensive literature on female mate choice, empirical evidence on women’s mating preferences in the search for a sperm donor is scarce, even though this search, by isolating a male’s genetic impact on offspring from other factors like paternal investment, offers a naturally ”controlled” research setting. In this paper, we work to fill this void by examining the rapidly growing online sperm donor market, which is raising new challenges by offering women novel ways to seek out donor sperm. We not only identify individual factors that influence women’s mating preferences but find strong support for the proposition that behavioural traits (inner values) are more important in these choices than physical appearance (exterior values). We also report evidence that physical factors matter more than resources or other external cues of material success, perhaps because the relevance of good character in donor selection is part of a female psychological adaptation throughout evolutionary history. The lack of evidence on a preference for material resources, on the other hand, may indicate the ability of peer socialization and better access to resources to rapidly shape the female decision process. Overall, the paper makes useful contributions to both the literature on human behaviour and that on decision-making in extreme and highly important situations.

Positioning as a source of competitive advantage: Benchmarking Rotorua’s position as a domestic short break holiday destination

Travellers are spoilt by holiday choice, and yet will usually only seriously consider a few destinations during the decision process. With thousands of destination marketing organisations (DMOs) competing for attention, places are becoming increasingly substitutable. The study of destination competitiveness is an emerging field, and thesis contributes to an enhanced understanding by addressing three topics that have received relatively little attention in the tourism literature: destination positioning, the context of short break holidays, and domestic travel in New Zealand. A descriptive model of positioning as a source of competitive advantage is developed, and tested through 12 propositions. The destination of interest is Rotorua, which was arguably New Zealand’s first tourist destination. The market of interest is Auckland, which is Rotorua’s largest visitor market. Rotorua’s history is explored to identify factors that may have contributed to the destination’s current image in the Auckland market. A mix of qualitative and quantitative procedures is then utilised to determine Rotorua’s position, relative to a competing set of destinations. Based on an applied research problem, the thesis attempts to bridge the gap between academia and industry by providing useable results and benchmarks for five regional tourism organisations (RTOs). It is proposed that, in New Zealand, the domestic short break market represents a valuable opportunity not explicitly targeted by the competitive set of destinations. Conceptually, the thesis demonstrates the importance of analysing a destination’s competitive position, from the demand perspective, in a travel context; and then the value of comparing this ‘ideal’ position with that projected by the RTO. The thesis concludes Rotorua’s market position in the Auckland short break segment represents a source of comparative advantage, but is not congruent with the current promotional theme, which is being used in all markets. The findings also have implications for destinations beyond the context of the thesis. In particular, a new definition for ‘destination attractiveness’ is proposed, which warrants consideration in the design of future destination positioning analyses.

The differential impact of monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases on the Australian interest rate futures market

Unlike US and Continental European jurisdictions, Australian monetary policy announcements are not followed promptly by projections materials or comprehensive summaries that explain the decision process. This information is disclosed 2 weeks later when the explanatory minutes of the Reserve Bank board meeting are released. This paper is the first study to exploit the features of the Australian monetary policy environment in order to examine the differential impact of monetary policy announcements and explanatory statements on the Australian interest rate futures market. We find that both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases have a significant impact on the implied yield and volatility of Australian interest rate futures contracts. When the differential impact of these announcements is examined using the full sample, no statistically significant difference is found. However, when the sample is partitioned based on stable periods and the Global Financial Crisis, a differential impact is evident. Further, contrary to the findings of Kim and Nguyen (2008), Lu et al. (2009), and Smales (2012a), the response along the yield curve, is found to be indifferent between the short and medium terms.

Investigating stakeholder concerns during public participation

Developing major infrastructure and construction (MIC) projects is complicated, since it involves multifaceted policy issues. As a result, appropriate participatory mechanisms have been increasingly employed to improve the legitimacy of the project decision process. Yet it cannot always guarantee a mutually acceptable solution since the expectations and requirements of multiple stakeholders involved can be diverse and even conflicting. Overcoming this necessitates a thorough identification and careful analysis of the expectations of various stakeholder groups in MIC projects. On the other hand, though most project stakeholder concerns are consistent across the globe, contextual differences may lead to diverse priority levels being attached to these factors. This research, therefore, aimed to examine the perceptual differences between paired stakeholder groups from mainland China mega-cities and Hong Kong in rating their concerns over MIC projects. The research findings are expected to benefit both the Central Government of China and the Government of Hong Kong SAR for coping better with the rapid expansion of MIC projects in the territory and the increasing expectations of social equality, and therefore achieving the much desired harmonious development of the community.

Thai word segmentation with hidden Markov Model and decision tree

The Thai written language is one of the languages that does not have word boundaries. In order to discover the meaning of the document, all texts must be separated into syllables, words, sentences, and paragraphs. This paper develops a novel method to segment the Thai text by combining a non-dictionary based technique with a dictionary-based technique. This method first applies the Thai language grammar rules to the text for identifying syllables. The hidden Markov model is then used for merging possible syllables into words. The identified words are verified with a lexical dictionary and a decision tree is employed to discover the words unidentified by the lexical dictionary. Documents used in the litigation process of Thai court proceedings have been used in experiments. The results which are segmented words, obtained by the proposed method outperform the results obtained by other existing methods.

A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.