Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

A meta-analytic clarification of the relationship between posttraumatic growth and symptoms of posttraumatic distress disorder

Traumatic experiences can have a powerful impact on individuals and communities but the relationship between perceptions of beneficial and pathological outcomes are not known. Therefore, this meta-analysis examined both the strength and the linearity of the relationship between symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and perceptions of posttraumatic growth (PTG) as well as identifying the potential moderating roles of trauma type and age. Literature searches of all languages were conducted using the ProQuest, Wiley Interscience, ScienceDirect, Informaworld and Web of Science databases. Linear and quadratic (curvilinear) rs as well as βs were analysed. Forty-two studies (N=11, 469) that examined both PTG and symptoms of PTSD were included in meta-analytic calculations. The combined studies yielded a significant linear relationship between PTG and PTSD symptoms (r=.315, CI = 0.299, 0.331), but also a significantly stronger (as tested by Fisher’s transformation) curvilinear relationship (r=.372, CI = 0.353, 0.391). The strength and linearity of these relationships differed according to trauma type and age. The results remind those working with traumatised people that positive and negative post-trauma outcomes can co-occur. A focus only on PTSD symptoms only may limit or slow recovery and mask the potential for growth.

Vulnerability and damage analysis of reinforced concrete framed buildings subjected to near field blast events

Terrorists usually target high occupancy iconic and public buildings using vehicle borne incendiary devices in order to claim a maximum number of lives and cause extensive damage to public property. While initial casualties are due to direct shock by the explosion, collapse of structural elements may extensively increase the total figure. Most of these buildings have been or are built without consideration of their vulnerability to such events. Therefore, the vulnerability and residual capacity assessment of buildings to deliberately exploded bombs is important to provide mitigation strategies to protect the buildings' occupants and the property. Explosive loads and their effects on a building have therefore attracted significant attention in the recent past. Comprehensive and economical design strategies must be developed for future construction. This research investigates the response and damage of reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings together with their load bearing key structural components to a near field blast event. Finite element method (FEM) based analysis was used to investigate the structural framing system and components for global stability, followed by a rigorous analysis of key structural components for damage evaluation using the codes SAP2000 and LS DYNA respectively. The research involved four important areas in structural engineering. They are blast load determination, numerical modelling with FEM techniques, material performance under high strain rate and non-linear dynamic structural analysis. The response and damage of a RC framed building for different blast load scenarios were investigated. The blast influence region for a two dimensional RC frame was investigated for different load conditions and identified the critical region for each loading case. Two types of design methods are recommended for RC columns to provide superior residual capacities. They are RC columns detailing with multi-layer steel reinforcement cages and a composite columns including a central structural steel core. These are to provide post blast gravity load resisting capacity compared to typical RC column against a catastrophic collapse. Overall, this research broadens the current knowledge of blast and residual capacity analysis of RC framed structures and recommends methods to evaluate and mitigate blast impact on key elements of multi-storey buildings.

An integrated approach for earthwork allocation, sequencing and routing

Planning techniques for large scale earthworks have been considered in this article. To improve these activities a “block theoretic” approach was developed that provides an integrated solution consisting of an allocation of cuts to fills and a sequence of cuts and fills over time. It considers the constantly changing terrain by computing haulage routes dynamically. Consequently more realistic haulage costs are used in the decision making process. A digraph is utilised to describe the terrain surface which has been partitioned into uniform grids. It reflects the true state of the terrain, and is altered after each cut and fill. A shortest path algorithm is successively applied to calculate the cost of each haul, and these costs are summed over the entire sequence, to provide a total cost of haulage. To solve this integrated optimisation problem a variety of solution techniques were applied, including constructive algorithms, meta-heuristics and parallel programming. The extensive numerical investigations have successfully shown the applicability of our approach to real sized earthwork problems.

Analysis of steel structures for first- and second-order element (displacement and force) solutions

Finite element method (FEM) relies on an approximate function to fit into a governing equation and minimizes the residual error in the integral sense in order to generate solutions for the boundary value problems (nodal solutions). Because of this FEM does not show simultaneous capacities for accurate displacement and force solutions at node and along an element, especially when under the element loads, which is of much ubiquity. If the displacement and force solutions are strictly confined to an element’s or member’s ends (nodal response), the structural safety along an element (member) is inevitably ignored, which can definitely hinder the design of a structure for both serviceability and ultimate limit states. Although the continuous element deflection and force solutions can be transformed into the discrete nodal solutions by mesh refinement of an element (member), this setback can also hinder the effective and efficient structural assessment as well as the whole-domain accuracy for structural safety of a structure. To this end, this paper presents an effective, robust, applicable and innovative approach to generate accurate nodal and element solutions in both fields of displacement and force, in which the salient and unique features embodies its versatility in applications for the structures to account for the accurate linear and second-order elastic displacement and force solutions along an element continuously as well as at its nodes. The significance of this paper is on shifting the nodal responses (robust global system analysis) into both nodal and element responses (sophisticated element formulation).

Assessing the threshold temperatures among different age and cause-of-deaths

The relationship between temperature and mortality is non-linear and the effect estimates depend on the threshold temperatures selected. However, little is known about whether threshold temperatures differ with age or cause of deaths in the Southern Hemisphere. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear models to assess the threshold temperatures for mortality from all ages (Dall), aged from 15 to 64 (D15-64), 65- 84(D65-84), ≥85 years (D85+), respiratory (RD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Brisbane, Australia, 1996–2004. We examined both hot and cold thresholds, and the lags of up to 15 days for cold effects and 3 days for hot effects. Results show that for the current day, the cold threshold was 20°C and the hot threshold was 28°C for the groups of Dall, D15-64 and D85+. The cold threshold was higher (23°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (21°C) for the group of CVD. The hot threshold was higher (29°C) for the group of D65-84 and lower (27°C) for the group of RD. Compared to the current day, for the cold effects of up to 15-day lags, the threshold was lower for the group of D15-64, and the thresholds were higher for the groups of D65-84, D85+, RD and CVD; while for the hot effects of 3-day lags, the threshold was higher for the group of D15-64 and the thresholds were lower for the groups of D65-84 and RD. Temperature thresholds appeared to differ with age and death categories. The elderly and deaths from RD and CVD were more sensitive to temperature stress than the adult group. These findings may have implications in the assessment of temperature-related mortality and development of weather/health warning systems.

The QUT innovation space : a trans-disciplinary learning environment for entrepreneurship education : final report

In the current climate of global economic volatility, there are increasing calls for training in enterprising skills and entrepreneurship to underpin the systemic innovation required for even medium-term business sustainability. The skills long-recognised as the essential for entrepreneurship now appear on the list of employability skills demanded by industry. The QUT Innovation Space (QIS) was an experiment aimed at delivering entrepreneurship education (EE), as an extra-curricular platform across the university, to the undergraduate students of an Australian higher education institute. It was an ambitious project that built on overseas models of EE studied during an Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) Teaching Fellowship (Collet, 2011) and implemented those approaches across an institute. Such EE approaches have not been attempted in an Australian university. The project tested resonance not only with the student population, from the perspective of what worked and what didn’t work, but also with every level of university operations. Such information is needed to inform the development of EE in the Australian university landscape. The QIS comprised a physical co-working space, virtual sites (web, Twitter and Facebook) and a network of entrepreneurial mentors, colleagues, and students. All facets of the QIS enabled connection between like-minded individuals that underpins the momentum needed for a project of this nature. The QIS became an innovation community within QUT. This report serves two purposes. First, as an account of the QIS project and its evolution, the report serves to identify the student demand for skills and training as well as barriers and facilitators of the activities that promote EE in an Australian university context. Second, the report serves as a how-to manual, in the tradition of many tomes on EE, outlining the QIS activities that worked as well as those that failed. The activities represent one measure of QIS outcomes and are described herein to facilitate implementation in other institutes. The QIS initially aimed to adopt an incubation model for training in EE. The ‘learning by doing’ model for new venture creation is a highly successful and high profile training approach commonly found in overseas contexts. However, the greatest demand of the QUT student population was not for incubation and progression of a developed entrepreneurial intent, but rather for training that instilled enterprising skills in the individual. These two scenarios require different training approaches (Fayolle and Gailly, 2008). The activities of the QIS evolved to meet that student demand. In addressing enterprising skills, the QIS developed the antecedents of entrepreneurialism (i.e., entrepreneurial attitudes, motivation and behaviours) including high-level skills around risk-taking, effective communication, opportunity recognition and action-orientation. In focusing on the would-be entrepreneur and not on the (initial) idea per se, the QIS also fostered entrepreneurial outcomes that would never have gained entry to the rigid stage-gated incubation model proposed for the original QIS framework. Important lessons learned from the project for development of an innovation community include the need to: 1. Evaluate the context of the type of EE program to be delivered and the student demand for the skills training (as noted above). 2. Create a community that builds on three dimensions: a physical space, a virtual environment and a network of mentors and partners. 3. Supplement the community with external partnerships that aid in delivery of skills training materials. 4. Ensure discovery of the community through the use of external IT services to deliver advertising and networking outlets. 5. Manage unrealistic student expectations of billion dollar products. 6. Continuously renew and rebuild simple activities to maintain student engagement. 7. Accommodate the non-university end-user group within the community. 8. Recognise and address the skills bottlenecks that serve as barriers to concept progression; in this case, externally provided IT and programming skills. 9. Use available on-line and published resources rather than engage in constructing project-specific resources that quickly become obsolete. 10. Avoid perceptions of faculty ownership and operate in an increasingly competitive environment. 11. Recognise that the continuum between creativity/innovation and entrepreneurship is complex, non-linear and requires different training regimes during the different phases of the pipeline. One small entity, such as the QIS, cannot address them all. The QIS successfully designed, implemented and delivered activities that included events, workshops, seminars and services to QUT students in the extra-curricular space. That the QIS project can be considered successful derives directly from the outcomes. First, the QIS project changed the lives of emerging QUT student entrepreneurs. Also, the QIS activities developed enterprising skills in students who did not necessarily have a business proposition, at the time. Second, successful outcomes of the QIS project are evidenced as the embedding of most, perhaps all, of the QIS activities in a new Chancellery-sponsored initiative: the Leadership Development and Innovation Program hosted by QUT Student Support Services. During the course of the QIS project, the Brisbane-based innovation ecosystem underwent substantial change. From a dearth of opportunities for the entrepreneurially inclined, there is now a plethora of entities that cater for a diversity of innovation-related activities. While the QIS evolved with the landscape, the demand endpoint of the QIS activities still highlights a gap in the local and national innovation ecosystems. The freedom to experiment and to fail is not catered for by the many new entities seeking to build viable businesses on the back of the innovation push. The onus of teaching the enterprising skills, which are the employability skills now demanded by industry, remains the domain of the higher education sector.

The renormalization group and the implicit function theorem for amplitude equations

This article lays down the foundations of the renormalization group (RG) approach for differential equations characterized by multiple scales. The renormalization of constants through an elimination process and the subsequent derivation of the amplitude equation [Chen, Phys. Rev. E 54, 376 (1996)] are given a rigorous but not abstract mathematical form whose justification is based on the implicit function theorem. Developing the theoretical framework that underlies the RG approach leads to a systematization of the renormalization process and to the derivation of explicit closed-form expressions for the amplitude equations that can be carried out with symbolic computation for both linear and nonlinear scalar differential equations and first order systems but independently of their particular forms. Certain nonlinear singular perturbation problems are considered that illustrate the formalism and recover well-known results from the literature as special cases. © 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Renormalization group interpretation of the Born and Rytov approximations

In this paper the method of renormalization group (RG) [Phys. Rev. E 54, 376 (1996)] is related to the well-known approximations of Rytov and Born used in wave propagation in deterministic and random media. Certain problems in linear and nonlinear media are examined from the viewpoint of RG and compared with the literature on Born and Rytov approximations. It is found that the Rytov approximation forms a special case of the asymptotic expansion generated by the RG, and as such it gives a superior approximation to the exact solution compared with its Born counterpart. Analogous conclusions are reached for nonlinear equations with an intensity-dependent index of refraction where the RG recovers the exact solution. © 2008 Optical Society of America.

Firm-customer mobile digital connectedness : conceptualization, measurement and implications

Firm-customer digital connectedness for effective sensing and responding is a strategic imperative for contemporary competitive firms. This research-in-progress paper conceptualizes and operationalizes the firm-customer mobile digital connectedness of a smart-mobile customer. The empirical investigation focuses on mobile app users and the impact of mobile apps on customer expectations. Based on pilot data collected from 127 customers, we tested hypotheses pertaining to firm-customer mobile digital connectedness and customer expectations. Our test analysis using linear and non-linear postulations reveals those customers raise their expectations as they increase their digital interactions with a firm.

The psychology of containment : mis/representing emotional and behavioural difficulties in Australian schools

The number of students in special schools has increased at a rapid rate in some Australian states, due in part to increased enrolment under the categories of emotional disturbance (ED) and behaviour disorder (BD). Nonetheless, diagnostic distinctions between ED and BD are unclear. Moreover, despite international findings that students with particular backgrounds are over-represented in special schools, little is known about the backgrounds of students entering such settings in Australia. This study examined the government school enrolment data from New South Wales, the most populous of the Australian states. Linear and quadratic trends were used to describe the numbers and ages of students enrolled in special schools in the ED and BD categories. Changes between 1997 and 2007 were observed. Results showed an over-representation of boys that increased across the decade and a different pattern across age for boys and girls. Consistent with international findings, these results indicate that trends in special school placements are unrelated to disability prevalence in the population. Rather, it is suggested that schools act to preserve time and resources for others by removing their more challenging students: most typically, boys.

The educational context and services of children with additional needs in their first years of school in Australia

In Australia, children with additional needs are now primarily educated in mainstream regular classes and schools. While discussion has focused on teacher attitudes, teacher preparation and professional development to support the academic progress of children with additional needs, there is limited research examining the educational contexts and services provided to such children in Australian schools. This descriptive paper examines the educational contexts of 563 Australian children with additional needs, in reference to 3600 of their typically developing peers. Data in relation to educational setting, retention, prevalence of additional needs, access to specialist services, learning support, and individual programming are reported.

Sport and the transformation of Australian television

This article uses sports coverage as a lens to analyse changes in broadcast television (free-to-air [FTA] and subscription) in Australia from the 1950s to the present. Sport has always been a vital genre for broadcast television. It is now, arguably, more important than ever. It is indisputable – though rarely comprehensively documented – that sport and sports coverage have shaped and transformed Australian television over many years. The significance of sports has incrementally increased with successive technological and industrial developments – such as the introduction of colour in 1975, electronic news gathering from 1976, subscription television in 1995, digital terrestrial broadcasting in 2001 and digital subscription broadcasting in 2004 – to the point where broadcast television’s continuing popularity and ongoing cultural significance relies to a great extent on sports coverage and related programming. In 2015, the launch of a bevy of new subscription video on demand (SVOD) services in Australia might appear to have reinforced drama as the key genre in the battle for attention and engagement, but for both historical and contemporary reasons sport remains the crucial form of audiovisual content.

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Positive associations of serum Perfluoroalkyl substances with uric acid and hyperuricemia in children from Taiwan

To investigate the risk of hyperuricemia in relation to Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in children from Taiwan, 225 Taiwanese children aged 12-15 years were recruited from 2009 to 2010. Linear and logistic regression models were employed to examine the influence of PFASs on serum uric acid levels. Findings revealed that eight of ten PFASs analyses were detected in > 94% of the participants' serum samples. Multivariate linear regression models revealed that perfluorooctanic acid (PFOA) was positively associated with serum uric acid levels (β=0.1463, p<0.05). Of all the PFASs analyses, only PFOA showed a significant effect on elevated levels of hyperuricemia (aOR=2.16, 95%CI: 1.29-3.61). When stratified by gender, the association between serum PFOA and uric acid levels was only evident among boys (aOR=2.76, 95%CI: 1.37-5.56). In conclusion, PFOA was found to be associated with elevated serum levels of uric acid in Taiwanese children, especially boys. Further research is needed to elucidate these links.