A sequential Monte Carlo approach to design for population pharmacokinetics studies

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach that can be used to find optimal designs. Our focus is on the design of phase III clinical trials where the derivation of sampling windows is required, along with the optimal sampling schedule. The search is conducted via a particle filter which traverses a sequence of target distributions artificially constructed via an annealed utility. The algorithm derives a catalogue of highly efficient designs which, not only contain the optimal, but can also be used to derive sampling windows. We demonstrate our approach by designing a hypothetical phase III clinical trial.

Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data

In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios

Monte Carlo verification of gel dosimetry measurements for stereotactic radiotherapy

The quality assurance of stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments requires the use of small-field dose measurements that can be experimentally challenging. This study used Monte Carlo simulations to establish that PAGAT dosimetry gel can be used to provide accurate, high resolution, three-dimensional dose measurements of stereotactic radiotherapy fields. A small cylindrical container (4 cm height, 4.2 cm diameter) was filled with PAGAT gel, placed in the parietal region inside a CIRS head phantom, and irradiated with a 12 field stereotactic radiotherapy plan. The resulting three-dimensional dose measurement was read out using an optical CT scanner and compared with the treatment planning prediction of the dose delivered to the gel during the treatment. A BEAMnrc DOSXYZnrc simulation of this treatment was completed, to provide a standard against which the accuracy of the gel measurement could be gauged. The three dimensional dose distributions obtained from Monte Carlo and from the gel measurement were found to be in better agreement with each other than with the dose distribution provided by the treatment planning system's pencil beam calculation. Both sets of data showed close agreement with the treatment planning system's dose distribution through the centre of the irradiated volume and substantial disagreement with the treatment planning system at the penumbrae. The Monte Carlo calculations and gel measurements both indicated that the treated volume was up to 3 mm narrower, with steeper penumbrae and more variable out-of-field dose, than predicted by the treatment planning system. The Monte Carlo simulations allowed the accuracy of the PAGAT gel dosimeter to be verified in this case, allowing PAGAT gel to be utilised in the measurement of dose from stereotactic and other radiotherapy treatments, with greater confidence in the future.

A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Monte Carlo modeling of a 4 mm conical collimator for a Novalis Tx Linear Accelerator

The work presented in this poster outlines the steps taken to model a 4 mm conical collimator (BrainLab, Germany) on a Novalis Tx linear accelerator (Varian, Palo Alto, USA) capable of producing a 6MV photon beam for treatment of Stereotactic Radiosurgery (SRS) patients. The verification of this model was performed by measurements in liquid water and in virtual water. The measurements involved scanning depth dose and profiles in a water tank plus measurement of output factors in virtual water using Gafchromic® EBT3 film.

Experimental evaluation of MCDTK, the Monte Carlo DICOM Tool-Kit

The Monte Carlo DICOM Tool-Kit (MCDTK) is a software suite designed for treatment plan dose verification, using the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes. MCDTK converts DICOM-format treatment plan information into Monte Carlo input files and compares the results of Monte Carlo treatment simulations with conventional treatment planning dose calculations. In this study, a treatment is planned using a commercial treatment planning system, delivered to a pelvis phantom containing ten thermoluminescent dosimeters and simulated using BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc using inputs derived from MCDTK. The dosimetric accuracy of the Monte Carlo data is then evaluated via comparisons with the dose distribution obtained from the treatment planning system as well as the in-phantom point dose measurements. The simulated beam arrangement produced by MCDTK is found to be in geometric agreement with the planned treatment. An isodose display generated from the Monte Carlo data by MCDTK shows general agreement with the isodose display obtained from the treatment planning system, except for small regions around density heterogeneities in the phantom, where the pencil-beam dose calculation performed by the treatment planning systemis likely to be less accurate. All point dose measurements agree with the Monte Carlo data obtained using MCDTK, within confidence limits, and all except one of these point dose measurements show closer agreement with theMonte Carlo data than with the doses calculated by the treatment planning system. This study provides a simple demonstration of the geometric and dosimetric accuracy ofMonte Carlo simulations based on information from MCDTK.

Monte Carlo evaluation of collapsed-cone convolution calculations in head and neck radiotherapy treatment plans

The presence of air and bone interfaces makes the dose distribution for head and neck cancer treatments difficult to accurately predict. This study compared planning system dose calculations using the collapsed-cone convolution algorithm with EGSnrcMonte Carlo simulation results obtained using the Monte Carlo DICOMToolKit software, for one oropharynx, two paranasal sinus and three nodal treatment plans. The difference between median doses obtained from the treatment planning and Monte Carlo calculations was found to be greatest in two bilateral treatments: 4.8%for a retropharyngeal node irradiation and 6.7% for an ethmoid paranasal sinus treatment. These deviations in median dose were smaller for two unilateral treatments: 0.8% for an infraclavicular node irradiation and 2.8% for a cervical node treatment. Examination of isodose distributions indicated that the largest deviations between Monte Carlo simulation and collapsed-cone convolution calculations were seen in the bilateral treatments, where the increase in calculated dose beyond air cavities was most significant.

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to the sequential design for discriminating between rival continuous data models

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

Radiotherapy Monte Carlo simulation using cloud computing technology

Cloud computing allows for vast computational resources to be leveraged quickly and easily in bursts as and when required. Here we describe a technique that allows for Monte Carlo radiotherapy dose calculations to be performed using GEANT4 and executed in the cloud, with relative simulation cost and completion time evaluated as a function of machine count. As expected, simulation completion time decreases as 1=n for n parallel machines, and relative simulation cost is found to be optimal where n is a factor of the total simulation time in hours. Using the technique, we demonstrate the potential usefulness of cloud computing as a solution for rapid Monte Carlo simulation for radiotherapy dose calculation without the need for dedicated local computer hardware as a proof of principal. Funding source Cancer Australia (Department of Health and Ageing) Research Grant 614217

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries

Using Monte Carlo simulation for radiotherapy dose calculation can provide more accurate results when compared to the analytical methods usually found in modern treatment planning systems, especially in regions with a high degree of inhomogeneity. These more accurate results acquired using Monte Carlo simulation however, often require orders of magnitude more calculation time so as to attain high precision, thereby reducing its utility within the clinical environment. This work aims to improve the utility of Monte Carlo simulation within the clinical environment by developing techniques which enable faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries. This is achieved principally through the use new high performance computing environments and simpler alternative, yet equivalent representations of complex geometries. Firstly the use of cloud computing technology and it application to radiotherapy dose calculation is demonstrated. As with other super-computer like environments, the time to complete a simulation decreases as 1=n with increasing n cloud based computers performing the calculation in parallel. Unlike traditional super computer infrastructure however, there is no initial outlay of cost, only modest ongoing usage fees; the simulations described in the following are performed using this cloud computing technology. The definition of geometry within the chosen Monte Carlo simulation environment - Geometry & Tracking 4 (GEANT4) in this case - is also addressed in this work. At the simulation implementation level, a new computer aided design interface is presented for use with GEANT4 enabling direct coupling between manufactured parts and their equivalent in the simulation environment, which is of particular importance when defining linear accelerator treatment head geometry. Further, a new technique for navigating tessellated or meshed geometries is described, allowing for up to 3 orders of magnitude performance improvement with the use of tetrahedral meshes in place of complex triangular surface meshes. The technique has application in the definition of both mechanical parts in a geometry as well as patient geometry. Static patient CT datasets like those found in typical radiotherapy treatment plans are often very large and present a significant performance penalty on a Monte Carlo simulation. By extracting the regions of interest in a radiotherapy treatment plan, and representing them in a mesh based form similar to those used in computer aided design, the above mentioned optimisation techniques can be used so as to reduce the time required to navigation the patient geometry in the simulation environment. Results presented in this work show that these equivalent yet much simplified patient geometry representations enable significant performance improvements over simulations that consider raw CT datasets alone. Furthermore, this mesh based representation allows for direct manipulation of the geometry enabling motion augmentation for time dependant dose calculation for example. Finally, an experimental dosimetry technique is described which allows the validation of time dependant Monte Carlo simulation, like the ones made possible by the afore mentioned patient geometry definition. A bespoke organic plastic scintillator dose rate meter is embedded in a gel dosimeter thereby enabling simultaneous 3D dose distribution and dose rate measurement. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of applying alternative and equivalent geometry definitions to complex geometries for the purposes of Monte Carlo simulation performance improvement. Additionally, these alternative geometry definitions allow for manipulations to be performed on otherwise static and rigid geometry.