Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Identification of key environmental issues for building materials

Manufacture, construction and use of buildings and building materials make a significant environmental impact internally (inside the building), locally (neighbourhood) and globally. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is being applied for evaluating the environmental impact of building/or building materials. One of the major applications of LCA is to identify key issues of a product system from cradle to grave. Key issues identified in an LCA lead one to the right direction in assessing the environmental aspects of a product system and help to identify the areas for improvement of the environmental performance of a product as well. The purpose of this paper is to suggest two methods for identifying key issues using an integrated tool (LCADesign), which has been developed to provide a method of determining the best alternative for reducing environmental impacts from a building or building materials, and compare both methods in the case study. This paper assists the designers or marketers related to building or building materials in their decision making by giving information on activities or alternatives which are identified as key issues for environmental impacts.

Integrating eco-efficiency assessment of commercial buildings into the design process : LCADesign

The ability to assess a commercial building for its impact on the environment at the earliest stage of design is a goal which is achievable by integrating several approaches into a single procedure directly from the 3D CAD representation. Such an approach enables building design professionals to make informed decisions on the environmental impact of building and its alternatives during the design development stage instead of at the post-design stage where options become limited. The indicators of interest are those which relate to consumption of resources and energy, contributions to pollution of air, water and soil, and impacts on the health and wellbeing of people in the built environment as a result of constructing and operating buildings. 3D object-oriented CAD files contain a wealth of building information which can be interrogated for details required for analysis of the performance of a design. The quantities of all components in the building can be automatically obtained from the 3D CAD objects and their constituent materials identified to calculate a complete list of the amounts of all building products such as concrete, steel, timber, plastic etc. When this information is combined with a life cycle inventory database, key internationally recognised environmental indicators can be estimated. Such a fully integrated tool known as LCADesign has been created for automated ecoefficiency assessment of commercial buildings direct from 3D CAD. This paper outlines the key features of LCADesign and its application to environmental assessment of commercial buildings.

The cost-effectiveness of routine follow-up after primary total hip arthroplasty

Routine postsurgery assessment of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) is recommended in many countries. Whether the benefits of this activity are justified by the costs is not known. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of 3 different follow-up strategies after primary THA. If there is no routine follow-up of patients for 7 years after primary THA, there would be cost savings between AU$6.5 and $11.9 million and gains of between 1.8 and 8.8 quality-adjusted life years. Policy makers should investigate less resource-intensive alternatives to common routine postsurgical assessment.

The effect of bone graft type on fusion rates following anterior thoracoscopic scoliosis correction

Bone graft is generally considered fundamental in achieving solid fusion in scoliosis correction and pseudarthrosis following instrumentation may predispose to implant failure. In thoracoscopic anterior-instrumented scoliosis surgery, autologous rib or iliac crest graft has been utilised traditionally but both techniques increase operative duration and cause donor site morbidity. Allograft bone and bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) alternatives may improve fusion rates but this remains controversial. This study's objective was to compare two-year postoperative fusion rates in a series of patients who underwent thoracoscopic anterior instrumentation for thoracic scoliosis utilising various bone graft types.

Determinants of listed property trust bond ratings : Australian evidence

Using artificial neural networks (ANN) and ordinal regression (OR) as alternative methods to predict LPT bond ratings, we examine the role that various financial and industry variables have on Listed Property Trust (LPT) bond ratings issued by Standard and Poor’s from 1999-2006. Our study shows that both OR and ANN provide robust alternatives to rating LPT bonds and that there are no significant differences in results between the two full models. OR results show that of the financial variables used in our models, debt coverage and financial leverage ratios have the most profound effect on LPT bond ratings. Further, ANN results show that 73.0% of LPT bond rating is attributable to financial variables and 23.0% to industry-based variables with office LPT sector accounting for 2.6%, retail LPT 10.9% and stapled management structure 13.5%.

Application of system dynamics for evaluating truck load regulations in Anhui, China

In the critical situation of prevailing overweight transportation and crag-fast enforcement in Chinese highway networks, this paper develops a methodological framework for truck weight regulation (TWR) evaluation using System Dynamics (SD). Composed of five interrelated subsystems, the framework is able to capture the highway, vehicle and freight variables that influence the effect of TWR and transportation efficiency over time. It specifically describes the development and use of the Truck Weight Regulation Evaluating Model (TWREM) for the highway freight system in Anhui province, China. Three policy alternatives are analyzed: 1) tolerant policy approach, which allows heavy-duty freight activity to continue in its current state, and is shown to lead to nearly catastrophic results; 2) rigid policy approach, which would terminate all heavy-duty freight activities immediately, and is shown to be economically infeasible; and 3) moderate policy approach, which advocates a gradual reduction of heavy-duty freight activities to a moderate state. The simulation results shows that the moderate policy approach is the most appropriate option to solve the social and economic problems arising from the activities of the heavy-duty freight transportation in Anhui. In addition, some suggestions of TWR policy in China are also made in this paper.

Examining the issues and dynamics of ethical dilemmas faced by school leaders

The roles and responsibilities of school leaders in most countries across the world have become more complex and challenging in recent years. In large part, this complexity has resulted from the discontinuously changing contexts and day-to-day dynamics within which principals lead their schools. Indeed, principals are now faced with having to make a plethora of decisions in an environment of competing priorities, and with consideration for the interests of students, teachers, parents and the school and wider community. Many of these decisions present as dilemmas for school leaders, where the choices for action often involve not just choosing from ‘right’ versus ‘wrong’ alternatives but also frequently from ‘right’ versus ‘right’ alternatives (Kidder, 1995). Underlying many such decisions are issues of values, principles and ethics. Dilemmas of an ethical nature arise such that principals enter a complicated ‘minefield’ of decision-making (Dempster & Berry, 2003) where significant implications results not only for those at the core of the particular decisions but also potentially for the wider school community and beyond.

Infrastructure project planning decision making : challenges for decision support system applications

Most infrastructure projects share the same characteristics in term of management aspects and shortcomings. Human factor is believed to be the major drawbacks due to the nature of unstructured problems which can further contribute to management conflicts. This growing complexity in infrastructure projects has shift the paradigm of policy makers to adopt Information Communication Technology (ICT) as a driving force. For this reason, it is vital to fully maximise and utilise the recent technologies to accelerate management process particularly in planning phase. Therefore, a lot of tools have been developed to assist decision making in construction project management. The variety of uncertainties and alternatives in decision making can be entertained by using useful tool such as Decision Support System (DSS). However, the recent trend shows that most DSS in this area only concentrated in model development and left few fundamentals of computing. Thus, most of them were found complicated and less efficient to support decision making within project team members. Due to the current incapability of many software aspects, it is desirable for DSS to provide more simplicity, better collaborative platform, efficient data manipulation and reflection to user needs. By considering these factors, the paper illustrates four challenges for future DSS development i.e. requirement engineering, communication framework, data management and interoperability, and software usability

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0909, September 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, A few weeks have now passed since our 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, which was held at the Adelaide Convention Centre from 5 to 7 August. I personally had a most enjoyable and enriching time at the Conference and felt these same “vibes” all around me. Top marks go to the South Australia organising committee, convened by Andrew Leedham, for their dedication to this our flagship event for the year. I could go on to cite my highlights but there were too many to give due diligence here. I had a number of official functions to perform at the Conference, but one in particular worth mentioning was being interviewed by radio stations 5AA, the main news/talk commercial broadcaster in Adelaide, and 891 ABC Adelaide. All interviewers were focussed on the issue of congestion charging, which is interesting in its emergence as a public conversation piece. My main responses focussed on the importance of providing alternatives for travel to the motorist otherwise being charged by a scheme, if and when decisions were made to implement congestion charging. I found that these opportunities to present AITPM as a professional peak body were very fruitful. The Queensland organising committee is now in full swing organising the 2010 AITPM National Conference, What’s New?, so please keep a lookout for related content. You’ll also find within this edition a transcript of my President’s Report to the 2009 AITPM National Annual General Meeting, which was held during the Adelaide Conference. Best regards to all, Jon Bunker

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0911, November 2009 : President's Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, It is interesting to follow the news at present, where transport costs are getting a significant airing. Treasury Secretary Dr Ken Henry has enunciated something Australians may have considered extremely radical just a few years back, but in the present time appears to quite a few to be a realistic alternative. That being a rethink of the way we are charged for using our vehicles. It appears that serious consideration is being given to congestion charging, perhaps in place at least to some extent, of fuel excise. As a transport professional I am pleased that the debate has elevated to the national level, and would look forward that AITPM might contribute appropriately to it. As a motorist though, I naturally have my concerns about being hit in the hip pocket. Not that I actually drive during congested periods very much. I am fortunate to live five minutes either side of two well serviced bus corridors, one of which will eventually become a busway, and work in the central business district, which is hub from all spokes in Brisbane. As such, bus and foot are my preferred commute modes. Ah but I should not gloat, as my smart card fare is about to increase by 20 percent in the New Year! And if the newspapers are to be believed, further substantial increments are proposed over the coming few years. This is reported to recoup some more of the costs of actually providing the quality public transport system that we enjoy in our region. So I expect it will be very interesting to see how transport economics will play out in reality in the coming few years, and how governments cater to Australians who either cannot afford substantial increases in transport costs or have no viable alternatives to those facilities whose costs will increase. The 2010 AITPM National Conference, “What’s New?”, still has the opportunity for authors to submit an abstract for consideration so please consider how you might contribute to the event. Best regards to all, Jon Bunker

Innovative approaches to intervention for problem drinking

Purpose of review: To critique the recent literature on telephone, correspondence-based, and computerized interventions for alcohol problems, which enhance or substitute for practitioner-delivered treatments. Recent findings: There is an unmet need for screening, assessment and intervention for alcohol problems, in part because of the difficulty in accessing such treatment within the current health care system. Research on the efficacy of correspondence or electronic (for example Internet-based) interventions is beginning to emerge. In the period 2003–2004 we identified nine acceptability or feasibility studies of these approaches and seven efficacy trials covering a wide range of settings. These modes of intervention are acceptable to patients and the public, and with careful planning, can be implemented in a variety of settings. Treatment trials demonstrate the efficacy of these interventions in reducing hazardous drinking by university students, in delaying initiation of heavy drinking in children and adolescents, and, intriguingly, in addressing insomnia among recovering alcoholics. Summary: There is strong support among potential users for alcohol interventions that employ telephone assistance, written correspondence, and the Internet. These new technologies offer the prospect of increasing the reach of interventions for problem drinking and being cost- effective alternatives or supplements to face-to-face health service delivery.

Rethinking youth cultures : the case of the 'Gothics'

This paper has argued that subcultural social formations, such as the Gothics, did not evolve as resistance to a dominant culture. Instead, they are a response to the governmental construction of youth as an object of knowledge—the by-product of particular forms of government, generated by specific power/knowledge relations. Accordingly, attempts to account for the phenomenon of ‘subcultures’ should begin, not with notions of a shared, resistant class/generational consciousness, but rather with detailed investigations of specific forms of government, such as those involving conventions and customs within the fashion and music industries, the distribution of technologies of marketing and consumption, the adoption of various techniques of self-shaping, the prevalence of different journalistic practices, routines of policing, and so on. ‘Subcultural style’ is not an expression of relationship between a given social class, its material conditions and its economic and cultural aspirations. Rather, it constitutes the construction of particular habitus, shaped by fashion and leisure activities, through which certain youthful personae are given their form.

Sewage disposal and wildlife health in Antarctica

Sewage and its microbiology, treatment and disposal are important to the topic of Antarctic wildlife health because disposal of untreated sewage effluent into the Antarctic marine environment is both allowed and commonplace. Human sewage contains enteric bacteria as normal flora, and has the potential to contain parasites, bacteria and viruses which may prove pathogenic to Antarctic wildlife. Treatment can reduce levels of micro-organisms in sewage effluent, but is not a requirement of the Environmental Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty (the Madrid Protocol). In contrast, the deliberate release of non-native organisms for any other reason is prohibited. Hence, disposal of sewage effluent to the marine environment is the only activity routinely undertaken in Antarctica knowing that it will likely result in the release of large numbers of potentially non-native species. When the Madrid Protocol was negotiated, the decision to allow release of untreated sewage effluent was considered the only pragmatic option, as a prohibition would have been costly, and may not have been achievable by many Antarctic operators. In addition, at that time the potential for transmission of pathogens to wildlife from sewage was not emphasised as a significant potential risk. Since then, the transmission of disease-causing agents between species is more widely recognised and it is now timely to consider the risks of continued discharge of sewage effluent in Antarctica and whether there are practical alternatives.

Structural health monitoring of bridges using acoustic emission technology and signal processing techniques

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is the term applied to the procedure of monitoring a structure’s performance, assessing its condition and carrying out appropriate retrofitting so that it performs reliably, safely and efficiently. Bridges form an important part of a nation’s infrastructure. They deteriorate due to age and changing load patterns and hence early detection of damage helps in prolonging the lives and preventing catastrophic failures. Monitoring of bridges has been traditionally done by means of visual inspection. With recent developments in sensor technology and availability of advanced computing resources, newer techniques have emerged for SHM. Acoustic emission (AE) is one such technology that is attracting attention of engineers and researchers all around the world. This paper discusses the use of AE technology in health monitoring of bridge structures, with a special focus on analysis of recorded data. AE waves are stress waves generated by mechanical deformation of material and can be recorded by means of sensors attached to the surface of the structure. Analysis of the AE signals provides vital information regarding the nature of the source of emission. Signal processing of the AE waveform data can be carried out in several ways and is predominantly based on time and frequency domains. Short time Fourier transform and wavelet analysis have proved to be superior alternatives to traditional frequency based analysis in extracting information from recorded waveform. Some of the preliminary results of the application of these analysis tools in signal processing of recorded AE data will be presented in this paper.