Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Identifying the presence of psychopathy in the community

Aim: Researchers have suggested that approximately 1% of individuals with psychopathic tendencies can successfully function within the community, although there has been a lack of research to support this claim. The current study aimed to identify individuals with psychopathic tendencies within a community sample and furthermore the socio-demographic correlates of this community integrated psychopath (e.g. relationship stability, substance use, and employment status). Procedure: 300 participants completed the Self-Reported Psychopathy scale – version 3 which contains four core psychopathy subfactors: (a) Interpersonal Manipulation, (b) Callous Affect, (c) Erratic Lifestyle and (d) Criminal Tendencies as well as the Paulhus Deception Scales to explore the effect of impression management and self-deception on the identification of psychopathy. Findings: Results indicated that at least 1% of the current community displayed characteristics consistent with psychopathic tendencies. A series of bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted which indicated that gender, age and alcohol misuse were predictive of psychopathy scores for this sample. More specifically, younger males who tend to misuse alcohol were found to be most likely to have psychopathic tendencies. Interestingly, impression management and self-deception was not associated with such tendencies. Discussion: The results provide some support for the assertion that individuals with psychopathic tendencies can be identified within the community (regardless of impression management techniques) and that such tendencies are associated with specific socio-demographic characteristics.

The role of the rule of law in virtual communities

There is a severe tendency in cyberlaw theory to delegitimize state intervention in the governance of virtual communities. Much of the existing theory makes one of two fundamental flawed assumptions: that communities will always be best governed without the intervention of the state; or that the territorial state can best encourage the development of communities by creating enforceable property rights and allowing the market to resolve any disputes. These assumptions do not ascribe sufficient weight to the value-laden support that the territorial state always provides to private governance regimes, the inefficiencies that will tend to limit the development utopian communities, and the continued role of the territorial state in limiting autonomy in accordance with communal values. In order to overcome these deterministic assumptions, this article provides a framework based upon the values of the rule of law through which to conceptualise the legitimacy of the private exercise of power in virtual communities. The rule of law provides a constitutional discourse that assists in considering appropriate limits on the exercise of private power. I argue that the private contractual framework that is used to govern relations in virtual communities ought to be informed by the values of the rule of law in order to more appropriately address the governance tensions that permeate these spaces. These values suggest three main limits to the exercise of private power: that governance is limited by community rules and that the scope of autonomy is limited by the substantive values of the territorial state; that private contractual rules should be general, equal, and certain; and that, most importantly, internal norms be predicated upon the consent of participants.

Statistical modeling to determine resonant frequency information present in combustion chamber pressure signals

A statistical modeling method to accurately determine combustion chamber resonance is proposed and demonstrated. This method utilises Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) through the use of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to yield a probability density function for the combustion chamber frequency and find the best estimate of the resonant frequency, along with uncertainty. The accurate determination of combustion chamber resonance is then used to investigate various engine phenomena, with appropriate uncertainty, for a range of engine cycles. It is shown that, when operating on various ethanol/diesel fuel combinations, a 20% substitution yields the least amount of inter-cycle variability, in relation to combustion chamber resonance.

Years 2 to 6 students' ability to generalise : models, representations and theory for teaching and learning

Over the last three years, in our Early Algebra Thinking Project, we have been studying Years 3 to 5 students’ ability to generalise in a variety of situations, namely, compensation principles in computation, the balance principle in equivalence and equations, change and inverse change rules with function machines, and pattern rules with growing patterns. In these studies, we have attempted to involve a variety of models and representations and to build students’ abilities to switch between them (in line with the theories of Dreyfus, 1991, and Duval, 1999). The results have shown the negative effect of closure on generalisation in symbolic representations, the predominance of single variance generalisation over covariant generalisation in tabular representations, and the reduced ability to readily identify commonalities and relationships in enactive and iconic representations. This chapter uses the results to explore the interrelation between generalisation and verbal and visual comprehension of context. The studies evidence the importance of understanding and communicating aspects of representational forms which allowed commonalities to be seen across or between representations. Finally the chapter explores the implications of the studies for a theory that describes a growth in integration of models and representations that leads to generalisation.

Survey of Spring Oats for Barley Yellow Dwarf Viruses in Illinois

During the spring of 1987, 1,215 samples of spring oats (Avena sativa L.) were collected in Madison, Champaign, Woodford, Warren, and DeKalb counties, Illinois. At each site on each of three sampling dates, 45 samples were collected (regardless of symptoms) in a W pattern in I ha and tested for the PAY, MAV, RPV, and RMV serotypes of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) by direct doubleantibody sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RMV was not detected at any location. PAY and RPV were detected at all locations, as early as 17 April in Champaign County. The incidences of P A V and RPV from all plants sampled ranged from 2 to 64% and from 2 to 88%, respectively. Highest incidences of both strains were in May samples [rom Woodford County. MAV was detected in lower incidences (2-16%) only in samples from the central region of the state (Champaign, Woodford, and Warren counties). The presence of MA V serotypes was confirmed in triple-antibody sandwich ELISA with the MA V -specific MAFF2 monoclonal antibody from L. Torrance. In the last previous survey for BYDV in Illinois during 1967-1968 (1), about 75% of the isolates were PAY and about 20% were RPV; single isolates of RMV and MAV were found. Twenty years later, 55% were PAY, 39% were RPV, and 6% were MAV.

Unaided stereo vision based pose estimation

This paper presents the development of a low-cost sensor platform for use in ground-based visual pose estimation and scene mapping tasks. We seek to develop a technical solution using low-cost vision hardware that allows us to accurately estimate robot position for SLAM tasks. We present results from the application of a vision based pose estimation technique to simultaneously determine camera poses and scene structure. The results are generated from a dataset gathered traversing a local road at the St Lucia Campus of the University of Queensland. We show the accuracy of the pose estimation over a 1.6km trajectory in relation to GPS ground truth.

A robust structure and motion replacement for bundle adjustment

This paper demonstrates the application of a robust form of pose estimation and scene reconstruction using data from camera images. We demonstrate results that suggest the ability of the algorithm to rival methods of RANSAC based pose estimation polished by bundle adjustment in terms of solution robustness, speed and accuracy, even when given poor initialisations. Our simulated results show the behaviour of the algorithm in a number of novel simulated scenarios reflective of real world cases that show the ability of the algorithm to handle large observation noise and difficult reconstruction scenes. These results have a number of implications for the vision and robotics community, and show that the application of visual motion estimation on robotic platforms in an online fashion is approaching real-world feasibility.

Vision only pose estimation and scene reconstruction on airborne platforms

We aim to demonstrate unaided visual 3D pose estimation and map reconstruction using both monocular and stereo vision techniques. To date, our work has focused on collecting data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, which generates a number of significant issues specific to the application. Such issues include scene reconstruction degeneracy from planar data, poor structure initialisation for monocular schemes and difficult 3D reconstruction due to high feature covariance. Most modern Visual Odometry (VO) and related SLAM systems make use of a number of sensors to inform pose and map generation, including laser range-finders, radar, inertial units and vision [1]. By fusing sensor inputs, the advantages and deficiencies of each sensor type can be handled in an efficient manner. However, many of these sensors are costly and each adds to the complexity of such robotic systems. With continual advances in the abilities, small size, passivity and low cost of visual sensors along with the dense, information rich data that they provide our research focuses on the use of unaided vision to generate pose estimates and maps from robotic platforms. We propose that highly accurate (�5cm) dense 3D reconstructions of large scale environments can be obtained in addition to the localisation of the platform described in other work [2]. Using images taken from cameras, our algorithm simultaneously generates an initial visual odometry estimate and scene reconstruction from visible features, then passes this estimate to a bundle-adjustment routine to optimise the solution. From this optimised scene structure and the original images, we aim to create a detailed, textured reconstruction of the scene. By applying such techniques to a unique airborne scenario, we hope to expose new robotic applications of SLAM techniques. The ability to obtain highly accurate 3D measurements of an environment at a low cost is critical in a number of agricultural and urban monitoring situations. We focus on cameras as such sensors are small, cheap and light-weight and can therefore be deployed in smaller aerial vehicles. This, coupled with the ability of small aerial vehicles to fly near to the ground in a controlled fashion, will assist in increasing the effective resolution of the reconstructed maps.

Graphcut-based interactive segmentation using colour and depth cues

Segmentation of novel or dynamic objects in a scene, often referred to as background sub- traction or foreground segmentation, is critical for robust high level computer vision applica- tions such as object tracking, object classifca- tion and recognition. However, automatic real- time segmentation for robotics still poses chal- lenges including global illumination changes, shadows, inter-re ections, colour similarity of foreground to background, and cluttered back- grounds. This paper introduces depth cues provided by structure from motion (SFM) for interactive segmentation to alleviate some of these challenges. In this paper, two prevailing interactive segmentation algorithms are com- pared; Lazysnapping [Li et al., 2004] and Grab- cut [Rother et al., 2004], both based on graph- cut optimisation [Boykov and Jolly, 2001]. The algorithms are extended to include depth cues rather than colour only as in the original pa- pers. Results show interactive segmentation based on colour and depth cues enhances the performance of segmentation with a lower er- ror with respect to ground truth.

Policy into practice : adoption of hazard mitigation measures by local government in Queensland : a collaborative research project between Queensland University of Technology and Emergency Management Queensland in association with Local Government of Queensland Disaster Management Alliance

The focus of the present research was to investigate how Local Governments in Queensland were progressing with the adoption of delineated DM policies and supporting guidelines. The study consulted Local Government representatives and hence, the results reflect their views on these issues. Is adoption occurring? To what degree? Are policies and guidelines being effectively implemented so that the objective of a safer, more resilient community is being achieved? If not, what are the current barriers to achieving this, and can recommendations be made to overcome these barriers? These questions defined the basis on which the present study was designed and the survey tools developed. While it was recognised that LGAQ and Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) may have differing views on some reported issues, it was beyond the scope of the present study to canvass those views. The study resolved to document and analyse these questions under the broad themes of: • Building community capacity (notably via community awareness). • Council operationalisation of DM. • Regional partnerships (in mitigation/adaptation). Data was collected via a survey tool comprising two components: • An online questionnaire survey distributed via the LGAQ Disaster Management Alliance (hereafter referred to as the “Alliance”) to DM sections of all Queensland Local Government Councils; and • a series of focus groups with selected Queensland Councils

Re-engaging adolescent students in science : an experienced teachers' classroom

Adolescents are both aware of and have the impetuous to exploit aspects of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) within their personal lives. Whether they are surfing, cycling, skateboarding or shopping, STEM concepts impact their lives. However science, mathematics, engineering and technology are still treated in the classroom as separate fragmented entities in the educational environment where most classroom talk is seemingly incomprehensible to the adolescent senses. The aim of this study was to examine the experiences of young adolescents with the aim of transforming school learning at least of science into meaningful experiences that connected with their lives using a self-study approach. Over a 12-month period, the researcher, an experienced secondary-science teacher, designed, implemented and documented a range of pedagogical practices with his Year-7 secondary science class. Data for this case study included video recordings, journals, interviews and surveys of students. By setting an environment empathetic to adolescent needs and understandings, students were able to actively explore phenomena collaboratively through developmentally appropriate experiences. Providing a more contextually relevant environment fostered meta-cognitive practices, encouraged new learning through open dialogue, multi-modal representations and assessments that contributed to building upon, re-affirming, or challenging both the students' prior learning and the teacher’s pedagogical content knowledge. A significant outcome of this study was the transformative experiences of an insider, the teacher as researcher, whose reflections provided an authentic model for reforming pedagogy in STEM classes.