Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

'Not a Local Win': Rural Australian perceptions of the sustainable impacts of forest plantations

Australian forestry plantations have doubled in the past 15 years, with rural communities harbouring a diverse range of positive and negative of economic, environmental and social impacts – the so-called triple bottom line (TBL). Utilising two Australian rural communities in Eden/Gippsland and Tasmania as qualitative case studies, this research explores how 23 non-forestry affiliated rural residents perceived and experienced the TBL economic, environmental and social impacts of plantation forestry. Residents criticised the economic plantation forestry benefits because of lengthy periods of inactivity and limited local employment, explaining that their community was reliant on the industry yet the promised economic benefits had never fully materialised. There was a sense the industry ‘plant and walk away.’ Residents were concerned about the environment impact on water quality, water tables and fire hazards, although they praised plantation forestry for carbon sequestering, eradicating erosion and water run-off. Negative social impacts were described, specifically how the land-use change from farming to forestry had significantly reduced the local population, employment and need for services. Natural resource management and communication strategies are offered, derived from non-forestry affiliated rural resident perspectives on how best to ensure sustainable forest development in their community.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Forest reflections

Interactive art installation Artist in Residence Queensland Government grant. Awarded June 2011 for period July-September 2011. This project involved co-creating an interactive artwork on site and in the forest with Grovely Primary school children aged 6-10, some with high needs. Affiliated with the United Nations International Year of the Forest. Final work is tangible, real-time visualization created using participatory design methods.

Financial Reserves : A Necessary Condition for Not-for-Profit Sustainability?

Should not-for-profit (NFP) organisations hold reserves to hedge uncertainty and protect mission delivery? This chapter outlines the nature and contxt of NFP reserves. many would accept that actors within NFP organisations have a broad accountability to ensure sustinability where an appropriate mission exists, and that sustinability is assisted or ensured through the purposeful accumulation of reserves. This chapter examins current relevant literature on reserves, reviews various approaches to reserves accumulation across jurisdictions and reports what is known about practice. We highlight the tension faced by NFP organisations, balancing mission spending against the need to hedge uncertainty. We investigate the role of reserves, and how an appropriate level is determined to ensure a NFP board's accountability for organisational sustinability. This issue is particularly significant in the period following the global financial crisis, and while practitioner interest is evident, there has been little academic attention paid to the topic of NFP reserves, and 'very few [articles] have even forcused on related topics' (Calabrese, 2011, p. 282).

Sex-specific roost selection by bats in clearfell harvested plantation forest : improved knowledge advises management

To maximize energetic savings, female bats often roost communally whilst pregnant or with non-volant dependents, whereas male bats more often roost alone; however, differences in selection of roosts by sex have not often been investigated. Better understanding of female colony locations could focus management to protect the majority of bats. New Zealand's long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) roost in exotic plantation forest, where sex-specific roost selection has not been investigated, and therefore such management is not possible. We investigated sex-specific roost selection by long-tailed bats for the first time. Roosts and paired nonroosts were characterized testing predictions that males and females select roosts that differ from non-roosts, and males and females select different roosts. Females and males chose Pinus radiata roosts that differed from non-roost trees. Results suggest each sex chose roosts that maximized energetic savings. Female bats used roosts closer to water sources, that warmed earlier in the day, which allowed maintenance of high temperatures. Males appeared to choose roosts that allowed torpor use for long periods of the day. Males may be less selective with their roost locations than females, as they roosted further from water sources. This could allow persistence of male bats in marginal habitat. As all female long-tailed bats chose roosts within 150 m of waterways, management to protect bats could be focused here. To protect bats least able to escape when roosts are harvested, harvest of forest stands selected by female bats as roost sites should be planned when bats are not heavily pregnant nor have non-volant dependents.

Bat colony size reduction coincides with clear-fell harvest operations and high rates of roost loss in plantation forest

Clear-fell harvest of forest concerns many wildlife biologists because of loss of vital resources such as roosts or nests, and effects on population viability. However, actual impact has not been quantified. Using New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) as a model species we investigated impacts of clear-fell logging on bats in plantation forest. C. tuberculatus roost within the oldest stands in plantation forest so it was likely roost availability would decrease as harvest operations occurred. We predicted that post-harvest: (1) roosting range sizes would be smaller, (2) fewer roosts would be used, and (3) colony size would be smaller. We captured and radiotracked C. tuberculatus to day-roosts in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest, over three southern hemisphere summers (Season 1 October 2006–March 2007; Season 2 November 2007–March 2008; and Season 3 November 2008–March 2009). Individual roosting ranges (100% MCPs) post harvest were smaller than those in areas that had not been harvested, and declined in area during the 3 years. Following harvest, bats used fewer roosts than those in areas that had not been harvested. Over 3 years 20.7% of known roosts were lost: 14.5% due to forestry operations and 6.2% due to natural tree fall. Median colony size was 4.0 bats (IQR = 2.0–8.0) and declined during the study, probably because of locally high levels of roost loss. Post harvest colonies were smaller than colonies in areas that had not been harvested. Together, these results suggest the impact of clear-fell harvest on long-tailed bat populations is negative.

Home range and habitat selection by a threatened bat in exotic plantation forest

Individuals' home ranges are constrained by resource distribution and density, population size, and energetic requirements. Consequently, home ranges and habitat selection may vary between individuals of different sex and reproductive conditions. Whilst home ranges of bats are well-studied in native habitats, they are often not well understood in modified landscapes, particularly exotic plantation forests. Although Chalinolobus tuberculatus (Vespertilionidae, Chiroptera) are present in plantation forests throughout New Zealand their home ranges have only been studied in native forest and forest-agricultural mosaic and no studies of habitat selection that included males had occurred in any habitat type. Therefore, we investigated C. tuberculatus home range and habitat selection within exotic plantation forest. Home range sizes did not differ between bats of different reproductive states. Bats selected home ranges with higher proportions of relatively old forest than was available. Males selected edges with open unplanted areas within their home ranges, which females avoided. We suggest males use these edges, highly profitable foraging areas with early evening peaks in invertebrate abundance, to maintain relatively low energetic demands. Females require longer periods of invertebrate activity to fulfil their needs so select older stands for foraging, where invertebrate activity is higher. These results highlight additional understanding gained when data are not pooled across sexes. Mitigation for harvest operations could include ensuring that areas suitable for foraging and roosting are located within a radius equal to the home range of this bat species.

The importance of exotic plantation forest for the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Environmental certification schemes have stimulated increasing interest in biodiversity and its management within exotic plantation forests. These schemes expect management to be scientifically-based, even though little is known about how often, or which, native species use exotic plantation forests. Greater knowledge of the ecology of native species within exotic plantation forests is required to advise management and reduce risks to native species, particularly those that are rare, such as the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus). Long-tailed bats use exotic plantation forests throughout New Zealand but need protection from the impacts of forest management, and particularly clear-fell harvest, that is achievable only through a better understanding of their biology. The consequences of the current reduced re-planting, and the conversion of plantation forests into pasture resulting in smaller forested areas, should not be ignored because they may be associated with reductions in long-tailed bat populations. We review the current knowledge of long-tailed bats' use of exotic plantation forests, and report for the first time which exotic plantations long-tailed bats are known to use. We make recommendations for the design of monitoring programmes to detect long-tailed bats within plantation forests, and for research into the effects of forest management, especially logging, and comment on the likely impacts of reductions in forested areas on long-tailed bats.

Long-tailed bats' use of a Pinus radiata stand in Kinleith Forest : Recommendations for monitoring

Targeted monitoring of threatened species within plantations is becoming more important due to forest certification programmes’ requirement to consider protection of threatened species, and to increase knowledge of the distribution of species. To determine patterns of long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) activity in different habitat structures, with the aim of improving the likelihood of detection by targeting monitoring, we monitored one stand of 26 year-old Pinus radiata over seven months between December 2007 and June 2008 in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest centred around Tokoroa, South Waikato, New Zealand. Activity was determined by acoustic recording equipment, which is able to detect and record bats’ echolocation calls. We monitored activity from sunset to sunrise along a road through the stand, along stand edges, and in the interior of the stand. Bats were recorded on 80% of the 35 nights monitored. All activity throughout the monitoring period was detected on the edge of the stand or along the road. No bats were detected within the interior of the stand. Bat activity was highest along the road through the stand (40.4% of all passes), followed by an edge with stream running alongside (35.2%), along the road within a skidsite (19.8%), and along an edge without a stream (4.6%). There was a significant positive relationship between bat pass rate (bat passes h-1) and the feeding buzz rate (feeding buzzes h-1) indicating that bat activity was associated with feeding and not just commuting. Bat feeding activity was also highest along the road through the stand (59.2% of feeding buzzes), followed by the road within the skidsite (30.6%), and along the stream-side edge (10.2%). No feeding buzzes were recorded in either the interior or along the edge without the stream. Differences in overall feeding activity were significant only between the road and edge and between edges with and without a stream. Bat activity was detected each month and always by the second night of monitoring, and in this stand was highest during April. We recommend targeted monitoring for long-tailed bats be focused on road-side and stand edge habitat, and along streams, and that monitoring take place for at least three nights to maximise probability of detection.

Soil moisture variability in a temperate deciduous forest: insights from electrical resistivity and throughfall data

Hydrogeophysics is a growing discipline that holds significant promise to help elucidate details of dynamic processes in the near surface, built on the ability of geophysical methods to measure properties from which hydrological and geochemical variables can be derived. For example, bulk electrical conductivity is governed by, amongst others, interstitial water content, fluid salinity, and temperature, and can be measured using a range of geophysical methods. In many cases, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is well suited to characterize these properties in multiple dimensions and to monitor dynamic processes, such as water infiltration and solute transport. In recent years, ERT has been used increasingly for ecosystem research in a wide range of settings; in particular to characterize vegetation-driven changes in root-zone and near-surface water dynamics. This increased popularity is due to operational factors (e.g., improved equipment, low site impact), data considerations (e.g., excellent repeatability), and the fact that ERT operates at scales significantly larger than traditional point sensors. Current limitations to a more widespread use of the approach include the high equipment costs, and the need for site-specific petrophysical relationships between properties of interest. In this presentation we will discuss recent equipment advances and theoretical and methodological aspects involved in the accurate estimation of soil moisture from ERT results. Examples will be presented from two studies in a temperate climate (Michigan, USA) and one from a humid tropical location (Tapajos, Brazil).

Now we can “see the forest and the trees too” but there are risks : Camera trapping and privacy law in Australia

The use of camera traps in wildlife management is an increasingly common practice. A phenomenon which is also becoming more common is for such camera traps to unintentionally film individuals engaged in a variety of activities, ranging from the innocent to the nefarious and including lewd or potentially embarrassing behaviour. It is therefore possible for the use of camera traps to accidentally encroach upon the privacy rights of persons who venture into the area of surveillance. In this chapter we describe the legal framework of privacy in Australia and discuss the potential risk of this sleeping tiger for users of camera traps. We also present the results of a survey of camera trap users to assess the frequency of such unintended captures and the nature of activity being filmed before discussing the practical implications of these laws for camera traps users in this country and make recommendations.

Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species - white-backed woodpecker - shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations. © 2013 Elsevier GmbH.