Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Characterisation of Coal Seam Gas Waters in New Zealand

Coal seam gas (CSG) exploration and development requires the abstraction of significant amounts of water. This is so because gas desorbtion in coal seams takes place only after aquifer pressure has been reduced by prolonged pumping of aquifer water. CSG waters have a specific geochemical signature which is a product of their formation process. These waters have high bicarbonate, high sodium, low calcium, low magnesium, and very low sulphate concentrations. Additionally, chloride concentrations may be high depending on the coal depositional environment. This particular signature is not only useful for exploration purposes, but it also highlights potential environmental issues that can arise as a consequence of CSG water disposal. Since 2002 L&M Coal Seam Gas Ltd and CRL Energy Ltd, have been involved in exploration and development of CSG in New Zealand. Anticipating disposal of CSG waters as a key issue in CSG development, they have been assessing CSG water quality along with exploration work. Coal seam gas water samples from an exploration well in Maramarua closely follow the geochemical signature associated with CSG waters. This has helped to identify CSG potential, while at the same time assessing the chemical characteristics and water generation processes in the aquifer. Neutral pH and high alkalinity suggest that these waters could be easily managed once the sodium and chloride concentrations are reduced to acceptable levels.

Green roofs : understanding their benefits for Australia

Summary of Actions Towards Sustainable Outcomes Environmental Issues / Principal Impacts The increased growth of cities is intensifying its impact on people and the environment through: • increased use of energy for the heating and cooling of more buildings, leading to urban heat islands and more greenhouse gas emissions • increased amount of hard surfaces contributing to higher temperatures in cities and more stormwater runoff • degraded air quality and noise impact • reduced urban biodiversity • compromised health and general well-being of people Basic Strategies In many design situations boundaries and constraints limit the application of cutting EDGe actions. In these circumstances designers should at least consider the following: • Consider green roofs early in the design process in consultation with all stakeholders to enable maximised integration with building systems and to mitigate building cost (avoid constructing as a retrofit). • Design of the green roof as part of a building’s structural, mechanical and hydraulic systems could lead to structural efficiency, the ability to optimise cooling benefits and better integrated water recycling systems. • Inform the selection of the type of green roof by considering its function, for example designing for social activity, required maintenance/access regime, recycling of water or habitat regeneration or a combination of uses. • Evaluate existing surroundings to determine possible links to the natural environment and choice of vegetation for the green roof with availability of local plant supply and expertise. Cutting EDGe Strategies • Create green roofs to contribute positively to the environment through reduced urban heat island effect and building temperatures, to improved stormwater quality, increased natural habitats, provision of social spaces and opportunity for increased local food supply. • Maximise solar panel efficiency by incorporating with design of green roof. • Integrate multiple functions for a single green roof such as grey water recycling, food production, more bio-diverse plantings, air quality improvement and provision of delightful spaces for social interaction. Synergies & references • BEDP Environment Design Guide DES 53: Roof and Facade Gardens GEN 4: Positive Development – designing for Net Positive Impacts TEC 26: Living Walls - a way to green the built environment • Green Roofs Australia: www.greenroofs.wordpress.com • International Green Roof Association: www.igra-world.com • Green Roofs for Healthy Cities (USA): www.greenroofs.org • Centre for Urban Greenery and Ecology (Singapore): http://research.cuge.com.sg

Shijiazhuang ecological landscape planning and design comprehensive improvement program for the Hutuo River

International practice-led design research in landscape architecture has identified water quality and water availability as two of the most important environmental issues in developing countries. China is particularly focused on improving water supplies for its rural and urban populations. However a significant gap in knowledge exists between urban planning and environmental engineering in China as to how to design Chinese public open spaces to reduce water pollution in urban rivers. This project responded to traditional zoning methods in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, by proposing a range of water sensitive design innovations from lake construction to planting design to modify standardised engineering solutions in a Chinese context.

Healthy children and a healthy planet : a role for education

Climate change is an urgent global public health issue with substantial predicted impacts in the coming decades. Concurrently, global burden of disease studies highlight problems such as obesity, mental health problems and a range of other chronic diseases, many of which have origins in childhood. There is a unique opportunity to engage children in both health promotion and education for sustainability during their school years to help ameliorate both environmental and health issues. Evidence exists for the most effective ways to do this, through education that is empowering, action orientated and relevant to children’s day to day interests and concerns, and by tailoring such education to different educational sectors. The aim of this chapter is to argue the case for sustainability education in schools that links with health promotion and that adopts a practical approach to engaging children in these important public health and environmental issues. We describe two internationally implemented whole-school reform movements, Health Promoting Schools (HPS) and Sustainable Schools (SS) which seek to operationalise transformative educational processes. Drawing on international evidence and Australian case examples, we contend that children’s active involvement in such processes is not only educationally engaging and rewarding, it also contributes to human and environmental resilience and health. Further, school settings can play an important ecological public health role, incubating and amplifying the socially transformative changes urgently required to create pathways to healthy, just and sustainable human futures, on a viable planet.

An ecological footprint for an early learning centre : identifying opportunities for early childhood sustainability education through interdisciplinary research

In this study, engineers and educators worked together to adapt and apply the ecological footprint (EF) methodology to an early learning centre in Brisbane, Australia. Results were analysed to determine how environmental impact can be reduced at the study site and more generally across early childhood settings. It was found that food, transport and energy consumption had the largest impact on the centre’s overall footprint. In transport and energy, early childhood centres can reduce their impact through infrastructure and cultural change, in association with changed curriculum strategies. Building design, the type of energy purchased and appliance usage can all be modified to reduce the energy footprint. The transport footprint can be reduced through more families using active and public transport, which can be encouraged by providing information, support and facilities and appropriate siting of new centres. Introducing the concept of ecological footprint in early childhood education may be an effective way to educate children, staff and parents on the links between the food they eat, land usage and environmental impact. This study responds directly to the call in this journal for research focused on early childhood education and for more to be made of interdisciplinary research opportunities.

Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

The implementation of sustainable housing through mutual benefits to key stakeholders

Among the Australian general public, there are increasing concerns about environmental issues. Accordingly, sustainability in the housing industry is also becoming a priority on the development agenda. However, putting the principles of ecological sustainability into practice within social and economic development requires intensive involvement of major stakeholders such as governments, developers, builders, consumers and a range of other professionals. Establishing a sustainable value entails asymmetric life-cycle returns, making it important for major stakeholders to appreciate the benefits of this new agenda not only for the individual businesses but also for other supply chain partners. This context warrants the study to promote collective benefits for key stakeholders by establishing a mutual-benefit framework for sustainable housing implementation. A research was carried out in the hope to establish a mutual-benefit framework by investigating challenges of achieving benefits (CABs) from sustainable housing development in a multi-stakeholder context. In the research work reported in this article, a comparative questionnaire study was first conducted among seven stakeholder groups in the Australian housing industry, to examine the importance and inter-relationships of CABs. In-depth interviews then furthered the survey findings with a focus on stakeholder diversity. The synthesized findings of the survey and interview study lead to the identification of 12 critical mutual-benefit factors and their mutual influence. Based on such a platform, a systematic framework is developed with the aid of Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM), to identify the patterns of stakeholder benefit materialisation, suggest the priority of critical factors and provide related stakeholder-specific action guide for sustainable housing implementation.

Critical Factors of Promoting Market Demand of Sustainable Housing in Australia

Strong regulatory pressure on environmental issues and the improved public awareness will continue to influence the market demand for sustainable housing in the coming years. Despite this potential, the voluntary up-take rate of sustainable practices is not as high as expected within the new built housing industry. This is in contrast to the influx of emerging building technologies, new materials and innovative designs as seen in office buildings and exemplar homes built worldwide. One possible reason for this is that key stakeholders such as developers, builders and consumers do not fully understand and appreciate the tangible and mutual benefits of sustainability in their professional and business activities. This situation warrants the study of a multifaceted strategy that integrates the needs of multiple stakeholders. This research investigates multiple factors that affect key stakeholder’s benefits in sustainable housing implementation. Drawing insights from a quantitative study on a questionnaire survey and a qualitative study of in-depth interviews with key stakeholders in the Australian housing industry, 11 critical factors of driving market demand for sustainable housing were unearthed. Their inter-relationships were identified with the aid of Interpretive Structural Modelling. The study concludes with a hierarchical model that amalgamates the strategies for the decision making of key stakeholders.

Editorial

In May 2011, the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies published Lessons for the Coalition: an end of term report on New Labour and Criminal Justice (Silvestri, 2011). In that collection I described Labour's performance on environmental issues as ‘too little too late’. The UK experienced a period of Blair/Brown environmental governance that demonstrated ‘symbolic success but real failure’. Amongst New Labour's environmental achievements were the establishment of the Climate Change Act 2008, the creation of the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the establishment of numerous green quangos to oversee and implement a range of environmental policies. However, these steps forward were seemingly threatened by the early days of a Cameron-led coalition where austerity measure, trade and the abolition of green quangos were on the cards. In sum, I concluded ‘future UK government report cards on the environment do not look good’ (Walters, 2011). After two and half years of a Conservative/Liberal Democratic coalition, and much rhetoric about it being ‘the greenest government ever’, the interim report card for the Cameron government on environmental matters is grim reading indeed. The demise of green quangos, record carbon emissions, renewable energies policies stultified, environmental criminality and victimisation all but ignored, and billions of pounds lost to environmental corporate fraudsters are just some of the headlines of Tory inspired governance with much environmental rhetoric and no environmental results.

A framework of promoting stakeholder mutual benefits for sustainable housing implementation

Strong regulatory pressure and rising public awareness on environmental issues will continue to influence the market demand for sustainable housing for years to come. Despite this potential, the voluntary uptake rate of sustainable practices is not as high as expected within the new built housing industry. This is in contrast to the influx of emerging building technologies, new materials and innovative designs as showcased in office buildings and exemplar homes worldwide. One of the possible reasons for this under-performance is that key stakeholders such as developers, builders and consumers do not fully understand and appreciate the related challenges, risks and opportunities of pursuing sustainability. Therefore, in their professional and business activities, they may not be able to see the tangible and mutual benefits that sustainable housing may bring. This research investigates the multiple challenges to achieving benefits (CABs) from sustainable housing development, and links these factors to the characteristics of key stakeholders in the housing supply chain. It begins with a comparative survey study among seven stakeholder groups in the Australian housing industry, in order to examine the importance and interrelationships of CABs. In-depth interviews then further explore the survey findings with a focus on stakeholder diversity, which leads to the identification of 12 critical mutual-benefit factors and their interrelationship. Based on such a platform, a mutual-benefit framework is developed with the aid of Interpretive Structure Modelling, to identify the patterns of stakeholder benefit materialisation, suggest the priority of critical factors and provide related stakeholder-specific action guidelines for sustainable housing implementation. The study concludes with a case study of two real-life housing projects to test the application of the mutual-benefit framework for improvement. This framework will lead to a shared value of sustainability among stakeholders and improved stakeholder collaboration, which in turn help to break the "circle of blame" for the current under-performance of sustainable housing implementation.

Media pressures and corporate disclosure of social responsibility performance information : a study of two global clothing and sports retail companies

This paper investigates the social and environmental disclosure practices of two large multinational companies, specifically Nike and Hennes&Mauritz. Utilising a joint consideration of legitimacy theory and media agenda setting theory, we investigate the linkage between negative media attention, and positive corporate social and environmental disclosures. Our results generally support a view that for those industry‐related social and environmental issues attracting the greatest amount of negative media attention, these corporations react by providing positive social and environmental disclosures. The results were particularly significant in relation to labour practices in developing countries – the issue attracting the greatest amount of negative media attention for the companies in question.

Book Review : Criminological and Legal Consequences of Climate Change. Edited by Stephen Farrell, Tawhida Ahmed and Duncan French (Oxford : Hart Publishing, 272 pp.)

The book addresses a number of pressing social and environmental issues of global concern. It takes the reader on a socio-legal journal of climate change and explores a range of challenging and complex topics including renewable energies, emissions reduction, carbon trading, deforestation, migration and corporate governance.

A micro-level indexing model for the assessment of sustainable urban ecosystems

During the last several decades, the quality of natural resources and their services have been exposed to significant degradation from increased urban populations combined with the sprawl of settlements, development of transportation networks and industrial activities (Dorsey, 2003; Pauleit et al., 2005). As a result of this environmental degradation, a sustainable framework for urban development is required to provide the resilience of natural resources and ecosystems. Sustainable urban development refers to the management of cities with adequate infrastructure to support the needs of its population for the present and future generations as well as maintain the sustainability of its ecosystems (UNEP/IETC, 2002; Yigitcanlar, 2010). One of the important strategic approaches for planning sustainable cities is „ecological planning‟. Ecological planning is a multi-dimensional concept that aims to preserve biodiversity richness and ecosystem productivity through the sustainable management of natural resources (Barnes et al., 2005). As stated by Baldwin (1985, p.4), ecological planning is the initiation and operation of activities to direct and control the acquisition, transformation, disruption and disposal of resources in a manner capable of sustaining human activities with a minimum disruption of ecosystem processes. Therefore, ecological planning is a powerful method for creating sustainable urban ecosystems. In order to explore the city as an ecosystem and investigate the interaction between the urban ecosystem and human activities, a holistic urban ecosystem sustainability assessment approach is required. Urban ecosystem sustainability assessment serves as a tool that helps policy and decision-makers in improving their actions towards sustainable urban development. There are several methods used in urban ecosystem sustainability assessment among which sustainability indicators and composite indices are the most commonly used tools for assessing the progress towards sustainable land use and urban management. Currently, a variety of composite indices are available to measure the sustainability at the local, national and international levels. However, the main conclusion drawn from the literature review is that they are too broad to be applied to assess local and micro level sustainability and no benchmark value for most of the indicators exists due to limited data availability and non-comparable data across countries. Mayer (2008, p. 280) advocates that by stating "as different as the indices may seem, many of them incorporate the same underlying data because of the small number of available sustainability datasets". Mori and Christodoulou (2011) also argue that this relative evaluation and comparison brings along biased assessments, as data only exists for some entities, which also means excluding many nations from evaluation and comparison. Thus, there is a need for developing an accurate and comprehensive micro-level urban ecosystem sustainability assessment method. In order to develop such a model, it is practical to adopt an approach that uses a method to utilise indicators for collecting data, designate certain threshold values or ranges, perform a comparative sustainability assessment via indices at the micro-level, and aggregate these assessment findings to the local level. Hereby, through this approach and model, it is possible to produce sufficient and reliable data to enable comparison at the local level, and provide useful results to inform the local planning, conservation and development decision-making process to secure sustainable ecosystems and urban futures. To advance research in this area, this study investigated the environmental impacts of an existing urban context by using a composite index with an aim to identify the interaction between urban ecosystems and human activities in the context of environmental sustainability. In this respect, this study developed a new comprehensive urban ecosystem sustainability assessment tool entitled the „Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX‟ (MUSIX). The MUSIX model is an indicator-based indexing model that investigates the factors affecting urban sustainability in a local context. The model outputs provide local and micro-level sustainability reporting guidance to help policy-making concerning environmental issues. A multi-method research approach, which is based on both quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, was employed in the construction of the MUSIX model. First, a qualitative research was conducted through an interpretive and critical literature review in developing a theoretical framework and indicator selection. Afterwards, a quantitative research was conducted through statistical and spatial analyses in data collection, processing and model application. The MUSIX model was tested in four pilot study sites selected from the Gold Coast City, Queensland, Australia. The model results detected the sustainability performance of current urban settings referring to six main issues of urban development: (1) hydrology, (2) ecology, (3) pollution, (4) location, (5) design, and; (6) efficiency. For each category, a set of core indicators was assigned which are intended to: (1) benchmark the current situation, strengths and weaknesses, (2) evaluate the efficiency of implemented plans, and; (3) measure the progress towards sustainable development. While the indicator set of the model provided specific information about the environmental impacts in the area at the parcel scale, the composite index score provided general information about the sustainability of the area at the neighbourhood scale. Finally, in light of the model findings, integrated ecological planning strategies were developed to guide the preparation and assessment of development and local area plans in conjunction with the Gold Coast Planning Scheme, which establishes regulatory provisions to achieve ecological sustainability through the formulation of place codes, development codes, constraint codes and other assessment criteria that provide guidance for best practice development solutions. These relevant strategies can be summarised as follows: • Establishing hydrological conservation through sustainable stormwater management in order to preserve the Earth’s water cycle and aquatic ecosystems; • Providing ecological conservation through sustainable ecosystem management in order to protect biological diversity and maintain the integrity of natural ecosystems; • Improving environmental quality through developing pollution prevention regulations and policies in order to promote high quality water resources, clean air and enhanced ecosystem health; • Creating sustainable mobility and accessibility through designing better local services and walkable neighbourhoods in order to promote safe environments and healthy communities; • Sustainable design of urban environment through climate responsive design in order to increase the efficient use of solar energy to provide thermal comfort, and; • Use of renewable resources through creating efficient communities in order to provide long-term management of natural resources for the sustainability of future generations.

Perceived barriers to healthy lifestyle activities in midlife and older Australian women with type 2 diabetes

Background Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in midlife and older Australian women with known modifiable risk factors for type 2 diabetes including smoking, nutrition, physical activity and obesity. In Australia little research has been done to investigate the perceived barriers to healthy lifestyle activities in midlife and older women with type 2 diabetes. Aims The primary aim of this study was to explore the level and type of perceived barriers to health promotion activities. The secondary aim was to explore the relationship of perceived barriers to smoking behaviour, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity, and body mass index. Methods The study was a cross sectional survey of women, aged over 45 with type 2 diabetes, recruited from four metropolitan community health clinics (n = 41). Data were collected from self-report questionnaires and analysed using quantitative methods. Results Women in the study had average total barriers scores similar to those reported in the literature for women with a range of physical disabilities and illnesses. The leading barriers for this group of women were: lack of interest, concern about safety, too tired, lack of money and feeling what they do does not help. There was no association between total barriers scores and body mass index, physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake or socio-demographic variables. Conclusion This study contributes to understanding the perceptions of midlife and older women with type 2 diabetes about the level and type of barriers to healthy lifestyle activities that they experience. The participants reported a high level perceived barriers with a range of personal, social and environmental issues identified and described. This study suggests that health promotion education and interventions for risk factor reduction in women with type 2 diabetes may be enhanced by explicitly addressing perceived barriers to healthy lifestyle activities.