Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks : understanding probability

An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

Integrated approach for HP-LNG pump diagnosis and prognostics based on health state probability estimation

This paper presents an innovative prognostics model based on health state probability estimation embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To employ an appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed prognostic model, the comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault levels of three faults in HP-LNG pump. Two sets of impeller-rubbing data were employed for the prediction of pump remnant life based on estimation of discrete health state probability using an outstanding capability of SVM and a feature selection technique. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Default judgment set aside without costs

A recent District Court case is believed to be the first in Queensland in which UCPR r 5 has been used to support the setting aside of a regularly entered default judgment without a costs order.

Probability analysis of machine angle stability with non-gaussian wind power input

The security of power transfer across a given transmission link is typically a steady state assessment. This paper develops tools to assess machine angle stability as affected by a combination of faults and uncertainty of wind power using probability analysis. The paper elaborates on the development of the theoretical assessment tool and demonstrates its efficacy using single machine infinite bus system.

A quantum probability perspective on borderline vagueness

The term “vagueness” describes a property of natural concepts, which normally have fuzzy boundaries, admit borderline cases, and are susceptible to Zeno’s sorites paradox. We will discuss the psychology of vagueness, especially experiments investigating the judgment of borderline cases and contradictions. In the theoretical part, we will propose a probabilistic model that describes the quantitative characteristics of the experimental finding and extends Alxatib’s and Pelletier’s (2011) theoretical analysis. The model is based on a Hopfield network for predicting truth values. Powerful as this classical perspective is, we show that it falls short of providing an adequate coverage of the relevant empirical results. In the final part, we will argue that a substan- tial modification of the analysis put forward by Alxatib and Pelletier and its probabilistic pendant is needed. The proposed modification replaces the standard notion of probabilities by quantum probabilities. The crucial phenomenon of borderline contradictions can be explained then as a quantum interference phenomenon.

Estimating the probability of an invalid match for matching using the rank transform

A fundamental problem faced by stereo matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. A wide range of algorithms have been proposed for the correspondence problem. For all matching algorithms, it would be useful to be able to compute a measure of the probability of correctness, or reliability of a match. This paper focuses in particular on one class for matching algorithms, which are based on the rank transform. The interest in these algorithms for stereo matching stems from their invariance to radiometric distortion, and their amenability to fast hardware implementation. This work differs from previous work in that it derives, from first principles, an expression for the probability of a correct match. This method was based on an enumeration of all possible symbols for matching. The theoretical results for disparity error prediction, obtained using this method, were found to agree well with experimental results. However, disadvantages of the technique developed in this chapter are that it is not easily applicable to real images, and also that it is too computationally expensive for practical window sizes. Nevertheless, the exercise provides an interesting and novel analysis of match reliability.

Default, deadlock and remedies

The primary purpose of this chapter is to examine the effectiveness of common default provisions and the range of common law and equitable remedies available to a joint venture partner in the event of default by a co-venturer. Because of the various joint venture vehicles such as trusts, corporations, partnerships and others, it is proposed to deal only generally with these questions.

On the probability density function of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables

In this paper we investigate the distribution of the product of Rayleigh distributed random variables. Considering the Mellin-Barnes inversion formula and using the saddle point approach we obtain an upper bound for the product distribution. The accuracy of this tail-approximation increases as the number of random variables in the product increase.

The probability archive : from essence to uncertainty in the mediation of knowledge

This volume puts together the works of a group of distinguished scholars and active researchers in the field of media and communication studies to reflect upon the past, present, and future of new media research. The chapters examine the implications of new media technologies on everyday life, existing social institutions, and the society at large at various levels of analysis. Macro-level analyses of changing techno-social formation – such as discussions of the rise of surveillance society and the "fifth estate" – are combined with studies on concrete and specific new media phenomena, such as the rise of Pro-Am collaboration and "fan labor" online. In the process, prominent concepts in the field of new media studies, such as social capital, displacement, and convergence, are critically examined, while new theoretical perspectives are proposed and explicated. Reflecting the inter-disciplinary nature of the field of new media studies and communication research in general, the chapters interrogate into the problematic through a range of theoretical and methodological approaches. The book should offer students and researchers who are interested in the social impact of new media both critical reviews of the existing literature and inspirations for developing new research questions.

Setting aside default judgment - whether judgment regularly or irregularly entered - service under Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) s109X(1) - requirements for affadavit of service

In Hill v Robertson Suspension Systems Pty Ltd [2009] QDC 165 McGill DCJ considered the procedural requirements for the service of originating process on a company, and for proving that service for the purpose of obtaining default judgment.The judge’s views adopt a strict and technical construction of the requirements for an affidavit of service under r 120(1)(b). Though clearly obiter, they may well affect the approach taken on applications to enter or set aside default judgments in the lower courts. Pending further judicial consideration of the issue, it is suggested the prudent course is to ensure that the deponent of an affidavit for service effected under s 109X(1)(a) of the Act deposes not only to the location of the registered office of the company but also, at a minimum, provides the source of that information.