Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Using a longitudinal model to estimate the effect of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection on length of stay in an intensive care unit

Healthcare-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus(MRSA) infection may cause increased hospital stay or, sometimes, death. Quantifying this effect is complicated because it is a time-dependent exposure: infection may prolong hospital stay, while longer stays increase the risk of infection. We overcome these problems by using a multinomial longitudinal model for estimating the daily probability of death and discharge. We then extend the basic model to estimate how the effect of MRSA infection varies over time, and to quantify the number of excess ICU days due to infection. We find that infection decreases the relative risk of discharge (relative risk ratio = 0.68, 95% credible interval: 0.54, 0.82), but is only indirectly associated with increased mortality. An infection on the first day of admission resulted in a mean extra stay of 0.3 days (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 10, and 1.2 days (95% CI: 0.5, 2.0) for a patient with an APACHE II score of 30. The decrease in the relative risk of discharge remained fairly constant with day of MRSA infection, but was slightly stronger closer to the start of infection. These results confirm the importance of MRSA infection in increasing ICU stay, but suggest that previous work may have systematically overestimated the effect size.

Amniotic fluid stem cells produce robust mineral deposits on biodegradable scaffolds

Insufficient availability of osteogenic cells limits bone regeneration through cell-based therapies. This study investigated the potential of amniotic fluid–derived stem (AFS) cells to synthesize mineralized extracellular matrix within porous medical-grade poly-e-caprolactone (mPCL) scaffolds. The AFS cells were initially differentiated in two-dimensional (2D) culture to determine appropriate osteogenic culture conditions and verify physiologic mineral production by the AFS cells. The AFS cells were then cultured on 3D mPCL scaffolds (6-mm diameter9-mm height) and analyzed for their ability to differentiate to osteoblastic cells in this environment. The amount and distribution of mineralized matrix production was quantified throughout the mPCL scaffold using nondestructive micro computed tomography (microCT) analysis and confirmed through biochemical assays. Sterile microCT scanning provided longitudinal analysis of long-term cultured mPCL constructs to determine the rate and distribution of mineral matrix within the scaffolds. The AFS cells deposited mineralized matrix throughout the mPCL scaffolds and remained viable after 15 weeks of 3D culture. The effect of predifferentiation of the AFS cells on the subsequent bone formation in vivo was determined in a rat subcutaneous model. Cells that were pre-differentiated for 28 days in vitro produced seven times more mineralized matrix when implanted subcutaneously in vivo. This study demonstrated the potential of AFS cells to produce 3D mineralized bioengineered constructs in vitro and in vivo and suggests that AFS cells may be an effective cell source for functional repair of large bone defects

Cryoreservation of alginate-fibrin beads involving bone marrow derived mesenchymal stromal cells by vitrification

Application of cell-–biomaterial systems in regenerative medicine can be facilitated by their successful low temperature preservation. Vitrification, which avoids ice crystal formation by amorphous solidification, is an emerging approach to cryopreservation. Developing vitrification strategy, effective cryopreservation of alginate–fibrin beads with porcine mesenchymal stromal cells has been achieved in this study. The cell–biomaterial constructs were pre-cultured for 20 days before cryopreservation, allowing for cell proliferation and construct stabilization. Ethylene glycol (EG) was employed as the basic cryoprotectant for two equilibration solutions. Successful cryopreservation of the constructs was achieved using vitrification solution composed of penetrating (EG MW 62 Da) and non-penetrating (sucrose MW 342 Da) cryoprotectants. Stepwise procedure of introduction to and removal of cryoprotectants was brief; direct plunging into liquid nitrogen was applied. Cell viability, evaluated by combining live/death staining and confocal laser microscopy, was similar for both control and vitrified cells in the beads. No detectable damage of microstructure of cryopreserved beads was found as shown by scanning electron microscopy. Both osteogenically induced control and vitrified cells in the constructs were equally capable of mineral production and deposition. There was no statistically significant difference in metabolic activity and proliferation between both groups during the entire culture period. Our study leads to the conclusion that the developed cryopreservation protocol allowed to maintain the integrity of the beads while preserving the ability of the pig bone marrow derived mesenchymal stromal cells to proliferate and subsequently differentiate; demonstrating that vitrification is a promising approach for cryopreser-vation of “ready-to-use” cell–biomaterial constructs.

CSI Lincoln : an investigation into a declining housing market

The residential property market in New Zealand has been experiencing a boom and bubble period from 2001 through to mid 2007. Following a number of increases in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank and a decline in net migration numbers the housing market was perceived to be over inflated and due for a major correction. Numerous media, Government Departments, property experts and economists have been predicting significant reductions in the median price of residential property throughout New Zealand. This paper will analyse house prices in specific socio-economic locations within Christchurch over the past 12 months to determine how significant the current housing decline is. This study will review the change in residential property prices, variations in property listings since April 2008, sale volumes and days on the market across a range of housing sectors to determine the extent and range of any residential property downturn in the NZ recession.

Dopamine and visually regulated eye growth in chick

Retinal image properties such as contrast and spatial frequency play important roles in the development of normal vision. For example, visual environments comprised solely of low contrast and/or low spatial frequencies induce myopia. The visual image is processed by the retina and it then locally controls eye growth. In terms of the retinal neurotransmitters that link visual stimuli to eye growth, there is strong evidence to suggest involvement of the retinal dopamine (DA) system. For example, effectively increasing retinal DA levels by using DA agonists can suppress the development of form-deprivation myopia (FDM). However, whether visual feedback controls eye growth by modulating retinal DA release, and/or some other factors, is still being elucidated. This thesis is chiefly concerned with the relationship between the dopaminergic system and retinal image properties in eye growth control. More specifically, whether the amount of retinal DA release reduces as the complexity of the image degrades was determined. For example, we investigated whether the level of retinal DA release decreased as image contrast decreased. In addition, the effects of spatial frequency, spatial energy distribution slope, and spatial phase on retinal DA release and eye growth were examined. When chicks were 8-days-old, a cone-lens imaging system was applied monocularly (+30 D, 3.3 cm cone). A short-term treatment period (6 hr) and a longer-term treatment period (4.5 days) were used. The short-term treatment tests for the acute reduction in DA release by the visual stimulus, as is seen with diffusers and lenses, whereas the 4.5 day point tests for reduction in DA release after more prolonged exposure to the visual stimulus. In the contrast study, 1.35 cyc/deg square wave grating targets of 95%, 67%, 45%, 12% or 4.2% contrast were used. Blank (0% contrast) targets were included for comparison. In the spatial frequency study, both sine and square wave grating targets with either 0.017 cyc/deg and 0.13 cyc/deg fundamental spatial frequencies and 95% contrast were used. In the spectral slope study, 30% root-mean-squared (RMS) contrast fractal noise targets with spectral fall-off of 1/f0.5, 1/f and 1/f2 were used. In the spatial alignment study, a structured Maltese cross (MX) target, a structured circular patterned (C) target and the scrambled versions of these two targets (SMX and SC) were used. Each treatment group comprised 6 chicks for ocular biometry (refraction and ocular dimension measurement) and 4 for analysis of retinal DA release. Vitreal dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC) was analysed through ion-paired reversed phase high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection (HPLC-ED), as a measure of retinal DA release. For the comparison between retinal DA release and eye growth, large reductions in retinal DA release possibly due to the decreased light level inside the cone-lens imaging system were observed across all treated eyes while only those exposed to low contrast, low spatial frequency sine wave grating, 1/f2, C and SC targets had myopic shifts in refraction. Amongst these treatment groups, no acute effect was observed and longer-term effects were only found in the low contrast and 1/f2 groups. These findings suggest that retinal DA release does not causally link visual stimuli properties to eye growth, and these target induced changes in refractive development are not dependent on the level of retinal DA release. Retinal dopaminergic cells might be affected indirectly via other retinal cells that immediately respond to changes in the image contrast of the retinal image.

Mailed treatment to augment primary care for alcohol disorders : a randomised controlled trial

Introduction and Aims: Remote delivery of interventions is needed to address large numbers of people with alcohol use disorders who are spread over large areas. Previous correspondence trials typically examined its effects as stand-alone treatment. This study aimed to test whether adding postal treatment to general practitioner (GP) support would lower alcohol use more than GP intervention alone. Design and Methods: A single-blind, randomised controlled trial with a crossover design was conducted over 12 months on 204 people with alcohol use disorders. Participants in an immediate correspondence condition received treatment over the first 3 months; those receiving delayed treatment received it in months 3–6. Results: Few participants were referred from GPs, and little intervention was offered by them. At 3 months, 78% of participants remained in the study. Those in immediate treatment showed greater reductions in alcohol per week, drinking days, anxiety, depression and distress than those in the delayed condition. However, post-treatment and follow-up outcomes still showed elevated alcohol use, depression, anxiety and distress. Greater baseline anxiety predicted better alcohol outcomes, although more mental distress at baseline predicted dropout. Discussion and Conclusions: The study gave consistent results with those from previous research on correspondence treatments, and showed that high levels of participant engagement over 3 months can be obtained. Substantial reductions in alcohol use are seen, with indications that they are well maintained. However, many participants continue to show high-risk alcohol use and psychological distress.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0908, August 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, Just a few days to go until the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, being held at the Adelaide Convention Centre from 5 to 7 August. We look forward to catching up with all of our familiar faces as well as many new faces at this year’s conference, which the South Australian Branch has been seaming together like a Singer sewing machine. I’m looking forward to meeting you at the conference and I do hope you can join us for the Institute’s National Annual General Meeting during the event. Until then, best regards to all Jon Bunker

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0910, October 2009 : Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, Well I can’t believe it’s already October! My office is already organising its end of year function and looking to plan for 2010. Our whole School is moving to a different building next year, with the lovely L block eventually making way for a new shiny one. Those of you who have entered the Brisbane CBD from the south side, across the Captain Cook Bridge, would know L block as the big 9 storey brick and concrete Lego block ode to 1970’s functional architecture, which greets you on the right hand side. Onto traffic matters: an issue that has been tossing around in my mind of late is that of speed. I know I am growing older and may be prematurely becoming a “grumpy old man”, but everyone around me locally seems to be accelerating off from the stop line much faster than I was taught to for economical driving, both here and in the United States (yes they made my wife and me resit our written and practical driving tests when we lived there). People here in Australia also seem to be driving right on top of the posted speed limit, on whichever part of the Road Hierarchy, whether urban or rural. I was also taught on both sides of the planet that the posted speed limit is a maximum legal speed, not the recommended driving speed. This message did seem to sink in to the American drivers around me when we lived in Oregon - where people did appear to drive more cautiously. Further, posted speed limits in Oregon were, and I presume still are, set more conservative by about 5mph or 10km/h than Australian limits, for any given part of the Road Hierarchy. Another excellent speed limit treatment used in Oregon was in school zones, where reduced speed limits applied “when children are present” rather than during prescribed hours on school days. This would be especially useful here in Australia, where a lot of extra-curricular activities take place around schools outside of the prescribed speed limit hours. Before and after hours school care is on the increase (with parents dropping and collecting children near dawn and dusk in the winter), and many childcentred land uses are located adjacent to schools, such as Scouts/Guides halls, swimming pools and parks. Consequentially, I believe there needs to be some consideration towards more public campaigning about economical driving and the real purpose of the speed limit = or perhaps even a rethink of the speed limit concept, if people really are driving on top of it and it’s not just me becoming grumpier (our industrial psychology friends at the research centres may be able to assist us here). The Queensland organising committee is now in full swing organising the 2010 AITPM National Conference, What’s New?, so please keep a lookout for related content. Best regards to all, Jon Bunker PS A Cartoonists view of traffic engineers I thought you might enjoy this. http://xkcd.com/277/

Bearing-only SLAM : a vision-based navigation system for autonomous robots

To navigate successfully in a previously unexplored environment, a mobile robot must be able to estimate the spatial relationships of the objects of interest accurately. A Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) sys- tem employs its sensors to build incrementally a map of its surroundings and to localize itself in the map simultaneously. The aim of this research project is to develop a SLAM system suitable for self propelled household lawnmowers. The proposed bearing-only SLAM system requires only an omnidirec- tional camera and some inexpensive landmarks. The main advantage of an omnidirectional camera is the panoramic view of all the landmarks in the scene. Placing landmarks in a lawn field to define the working domain is much easier and more flexible than installing the perimeter wire required by existing autonomous lawnmowers. The common approach of existing bearing-only SLAM methods relies on a motion model for predicting the robot’s pose and a sensor model for updating the pose. In the motion model, the error on the estimates of object positions is cumulated due mainly to the wheel slippage. Quantifying accu- rately the uncertainty of object positions is a fundamental requirement. In bearing-only SLAM, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of landmark position should be uniform along the observed bearing. Existing methods that approximate the PDF with a Gaussian estimation do not satisfy this uniformity requirement. This thesis introduces both geometric and proba- bilistic methods to address the above problems. The main novel contribu- tions of this thesis are: 1. A bearing-only SLAM method not requiring odometry. The proposed method relies solely on the sensor model (landmark bearings only) without relying on the motion model (odometry). The uncertainty of the estimated landmark positions depends on the vision error only, instead of the combination of both odometry and vision errors. 2. The transformation of the spatial uncertainty of objects. This thesis introduces a novel method for translating the spatial un- certainty of objects estimated from a moving frame attached to the robot into the global frame attached to the static landmarks in the environment. 3. The characterization of an improved PDF for representing landmark position in bearing-only SLAM. The proposed PDF is expressed in polar coordinates, and the marginal probability on range is constrained to be uniform. Compared to the PDF estimated from a mixture of Gaussians, the PDF developed here has far fewer parameters and can be easily adopted in a probabilistic framework, such as a particle filtering system. The main advantages of our proposed bearing-only SLAM system are its lower production cost and flexibility of use. The proposed system can be adopted in other domestic robots as well, such as vacuum cleaners or robotic toys when terrain is essentially 2D.

Aligning policy with practice: an evaluation of vocational education and training in the library and information services sector

Vocational education and training for the library and information services (LIS) sector in Australia offers students the career pathway to become library technicians. Library technicians play a valuable role in drawing on sound practical knowledge and skills to support the delivery of library and information services that meet client needs. Over the past forty years, the Australian Library and Information Association (ALIA) has monitored the quality of library technician courses. Since 2005, ALIA has run national professional development days for library technician educators with the goal of establishing an alternative model for course recognition focusing on the process of peer review to benchmark good practice and stimulate continuous improvement in library technician education. This initial developmental work has culminated in 2009 with site visits to all library technician courses in Australia. The paper presents a whole-of-industry case study to critically review the work undertaken to date.

Vitreous cryopreservation of nanofibrous tissue-engineered constructs generated using mesenchymal stromal cells

Development of an effective preservation strategy to fulfill off-the-shelf availability of tissue-engineered constructs (TECs) is demanded for realizing their clinical potential. In this study, the feasibility of vitrification, ice-free cryopreservation, for precultured ready-to-use TECs was evaluated. To prepare the TECs, bone marrow-derived porcine mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) were seeded in polycaprolactone-gelatin nanofibrous scaffolds and cultured for 3 weeks before vitrification treatment. The vitrification strategy developed, which involved exposure of the TECs to low concentrations of cryoprotectants followed by a vitrification solution and sterile packaging in a pouch with its subsequent immersion directly into liquid nitrogen, was accomplished within 11min. Stepwise removal of cryoprotectants, after warming in a 38 degrees C water bath, enabled rapid restoration of the TECs. Vitrification did not impair microstructure of the scaffold or cell viability. No significant differences were found between the vitrified and control TECs in cellular metabolic activity and proliferation on matched days and in the trends during 5 weeks of continuous culture postvitrification. Osteogenic differentiation ability in vitrified and control groups was similar. In conclusion, we have developed a time- and cost-efficient cryopreservation method that maintains integrity of the TECs while preserving MSCs viability and metabolic activity, and their ability to differentiate.

Synthesis and characterization of boehmite nanofibers

Boehmite nanofibers of high quality were synthesized through a wet-gel conversion process without the use of a surfactant. The long nanofibers of boehmite with clear-cut edges were obtained by steaming the wet-gel precipitate at 170 ºC for 2 days under a pH 5. Hydrothermal treatment of the boehmite gels enabled self-assembly through directed crystal growth. Detailed characterization using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Infrared Emission Spectroscopy (IES) and Raman Spectroscopy is presented.

Monitoring the Performance of Complex Projects from Multiple Perspectives over Multiple Time Frames

When complex projects go wrong they can go horribly wrong with severe financial consequences. We are undertaking research to develop leading performance indicators for complex projects, metrics to provide early warning of potential difficulties. The assessment of success of complex projects can be made by a range of stakeholders over different time scales, against different levels of project results: the project’s outputs at the end of the project; the project’s outcomes in the months following project completion; and the project’s impact in the years following completion. We aim to identify leading performance indicators, which may include both success criteria and success factors, and which can be measured by the project team during project delivery to forecast success as assessed by key stakeholders in the days, months and years following the project. The hope is the leading performance indicators will act as alarm bells to show if a project is diverting from plan so early corrective action can be taken. It may be that different combinations of the leading performance indicators will be appropriate depending on the nature of project complexity. In this paper we develop a new model of project success, whereby success is assessed by different stakeholders over different time frames against different levels of project results. We then relate this to measurements that can be taken during project delivery. A methodology is described to evaluate the early parts of this model. Its implications and limitations are described. This paper describes work in progress.

Somatic embryogenesis, organogenesis and plant regeneration in taro (Colocasia esculenta var. esculenta)

Callus was initiated in three different ‘‘esculenta’’ taro cultivars by culturing corm slices in the dark on half-strength MS medium supplemented with 2.0 mg/l 2,4- dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) for 20 days followed by subculture of all corm slices to half-strength MS medium containing 1.0 mg/l thidiazuron (TDZ). Depending on the cultivar, 20–30% of corm slices produced compact, yellow, nodular callus on media containing TDZ. Histological studies revealed the presence of typical embryogenic cells which were small, isodiametric with dense cytoplasms. Somatic embryos formed when callus was transferred to hormone-free medium and *72% of the embryos germinated into plantlets on this medium. Simultaneous formation of roots and shoots during germination, and the presence of shoot and root poles revealed by histology, confirmed that these structures were true somatic embryos. Plants derived from somatic embryos appeared phenotypically normal following 2 months growth in a glasshouse. This method is a significant advance on those previously reported for the esculenta cultivars of taro due to its efficiency and reproducibility.