A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Anglican Church knew clergyman Robert Waddington was a risk

AUSTRALIAN church officials knew of child-sex allegations in Britain against a senior clergymen when they pushed a victim into accepting a compensation payout on the basis that there was no evidence to back up his claims of abuse. Former Church of England investigator Ray Morris says he prepared a 2004 report about allegations in Britain and Australia - from the 1960s and 80s - against Robert Waddington. He sent it to north Queensland diocese officials, who were at the time involved in mediation with the Australian victim over his claims that he was abused weekly by Waddington between 1964 and 1968, who was headmaster of St Barnabas boarding school in Ravenshoe, southwest of Cairns.

Robert Waddington's cycle of abuse stretches beyond 50 years

THE Church of England banished serial pedophile priest Robert Waddington to Australia, where he abused children across a decade, after suspicions were raised about him molesting choirboys in his London parish. In an alleged church cover-up spanning almost 60 years, Waddington was suddenly and unexpectedly sent to a small school in regional Queensland in 1956 amid claims he was molesting the son of an English politician. Last month the Church of England ordered an independent inquiry into the handling of allegations against Waddington, after a joint investigation by The Australian and The Times of London. But it can now be revealed that Waddington - who died in 2007, facing allegations he abused students in Australia in the 1960s and English choirboys in the 80s and 90s - was molesting children as soon as he joined the church in 1953. The latest allegations have been made by Ray Munn, 70, who was recruited by Waddington, then a curate at St John's church in Bethnal Green, East London, to sing in the choir in 1953. He was almost immediately groomed by the Cambridge University-educated clergyman, who took him on holidays in the English countryside, before he began molesting the then 11-year-old.

Cungellela by William ‘Dura Danje’ Leisha and Shem ‘Curan Danje’ Leisha

Research background: Cungelela is an intercultural music project undertaken in collaboration with William ‘Dura Danje’ Leisha and Shem ‘Curan Danje’ Leisha. The project contributes to cultural maintenance for Australian First Nations peoples, and is informed by prior work in this area by scholars including Peter Dunbar-Hall, Chris Gibson and Karl Neuenfeldt. These existing studies have discussed the complexities of intercultural collaboration, and the types of cultural politics that are involved when Indigenous and non-Indigenous musicians and scholars work together on projects of cultural significance. Critical race theory has also informed the creative work, as a means of interpreting the implicit and explicit discourses of race that arise through intercultural creative practice. The project asked the research question, in what ways can collaborative music making contribute to intercultural understanding and support cultural maintenance for Australian First Nations people affected by the Stolen Generations? Research contribution: This project has identified that collaborative production of recorded popular music can produce shared affective, embodied and transformative forms of knowledge about the impact of the Stolen Generations on Australian First Nations peoples. Research significance: The compact disc was presented by Aunty Anne Leisha as part of an invited presentation at the World Indigenous Nations Higher Education Consortium in New Mexico, 2013. The work also formed part of a refereed conference presentation at the 2013 conference of the International Association for the Study of Popular Music held at the University of Oviedo, Gijon, Spain.

Challenges for integrated design and delivery solutions

A new approach of integrated design and delivery solutions (IDDS) aims to radically improve the performance of the construction industries. IDDS builds upon recent trends in the construction industries that have seen the widespread adoption of technologies such as building information modelling (BIM) and innovative processes such as integrated project delivery. However, these innovations are seen to develop in isolation, with little consideration of the overarching interactions between people, process and technology. The IDDS approach is holistic in that it recognizes that it is only through a combination of initiatives such as skill development, process re-engineering, responsive information technology, enhanced interoperability and integrating knowledge management, among others, that radical change can be achieved. To implement IDDS requires step changes in many project aspects, and this gap between current performance and that required for IDDS is highlighted. The research required to bridge the gaps is identified in four major aspects of collaborative processes, workforce skills, integrated information and knowledge management.

Evidence based physical activity for school-age youth

Objectives To review the effects of physical activity on health and behavior outcomes and develop evidence-based recommendations for physical activity in youth. Study design A systematic literature review identified 850 articles; additional papers were identified by the expert panelists. Articles in the identified outcome areas were reviewed, evaluated and summarized by an expert panelist. The strength of the evidence, conclusions, key issues, and gaps in the evidence were abstracted in a standardized format and presented and discussed by panelists and organizational representatives. Results Most intervention studies used supervised programs of moderate to vigorous physical activity of 30 to 45 minutes duration 3 to 5 days per week. The panel believed that a greater amount of physical activity would be necessary to achieve similar beneficial effects on health and behavioral outcomes in ordinary daily circumstances (typically intermittent and unsupervised activity). Conclusion School-age youth should participate daily in 60 minutes or more of moderate to vigorous physical activity that is developmentally appropriate, enjoyable, and involves a variety of activities.

Scleral matrix metalloproteinases, serine proteinase activity and hydrational capacity are increased in myopia induced by retinal image degradation

In the avian model of myopia, retinal image degradation quickly leads to ocular enlargement. We now give evidence that regionally specific changes in ocular size are correlated with both biomechanical indices of scleral remodeling, e.g. hydration capacity and with biochemical changes in proteinase activities. The latter include a 72 kDa matrix metalloproteinase (putatively MMP-2), other gelatin-binding MMPs, an acid pH MMP and a serine protease. Specifically, we have found that increases in scleral hydrational capacity parallel increases in collagen degrading activities. Gelatin zymography reveals that eyes with 7 days of retinal image degradation have elevated levels (1.4-fold) of gelatinolytic activities at 72 and 67 kDa M(r) in equatorial and posterior pole regions of the sclera while, after 14 days of treatment, increases are no longer apparent. Lower M(r) zymographic activities at 50, 46 and 37 kDa M(r) are collectively increased in eyes treated for both 7 and 14 days (1.4- and 2.4-fold respectively) in the equator and posterior pole areas of enlarging eyes. Western blot analyses of scleral extracts with an antibody to human MMP-2 reveals immunoreactive bands at 65, 30 and 25 kDa. Zymograms incubated under slightly acidic conditions reveal that, in enlarging eyes, MMP activities at 25 and 28 kDa M(r) are increased in scleral equator and posterior pole (1.6- and 4.5-fold respectively). A TIMP-like protein is also identified in sclera and cornea by Western blot analysis. Finally, retinal-image degradation also increases (~2.6-fold) the activity of a 23.5 kDa serine proteinase in limbus, equator and posterior pole sclera that is inhibited by aprotinin and soybean trypsin inhibitor. Taken together, these results indicate that eye growth induced by retinal-image degradation involves increases in the activities of multiple scleral proteinases that could modify the biomechanical properties of scleral structural components and contribute to tissue remodeling and growth.

Label-free SERS for natural product provenance

Introduction Natural product provenance is important in the food, beverage and pharmaceutical industries, for consumer confidence and with health implications. Raman spectroscopy has powerful molecular fingerprint abilities. Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy’s (SERS) sharp peaks allow distinction between minimally different molecules, so it should be suitable for this purpose. Methods Naturally caffeinated beverages with Guarana extract, coffee and Red Bull energy drink as a synthetic caffeinated beverage for comparison (20 µL ea.) were reacted 1:1 with Gold nanoparticles functionalised with anti-caffeine antibody (ab15221) (10 minutes), air dried and analysed in a micro-Raman instrument. The spectral data was processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). Results The PCA showed Guarana sourced caffeine varied significantly from synthetic caffeine (Red Bull) on component 1 (containing 76.4% of the variance in the data). See figure 1. The coffee containing beverages, and in particular Robert Timms (instant coffee) were very similar on component 1, but the barista espresso showed minor variance on component 1. Both coffee sourced caffeine samples varied with red Bull on component 2, (20% of variance). ************************************************************ Figure 1 PCA comparing a naturally caffeinated beverage containing Guarana with coffee. ************************************************************ Discussion PCA is an unsupervised multivariate statistical method that determines patterns within data. Figure 1 shows Caffeine in Guarana is notably different to synthetic caffeine. Other researchers have revealed that caffeine in Guarana plants is complexed with tannins. Naturally sourced/ lightly processed caffeine (Monster Energy, Espresso) are more inherently different than synthetic (Red Bull) /highly processed (Robert Timms) caffeine, in figure 1, which is consistent with this finding and demonstrates this technique’s applicability. Guarana provenance is important because it is still largely hand produced and its demand is escalating with recognition of its benefits. This could be a powerful technique for Guarana provenance, and may extend to other industries where provenance / authentication are required, e.g. the wine or natural pharmaceuticals industries.

Capital cost model for Robert evaporators

ROBERT EVAPORATORS in Australian sugar factories are traditionally constructed with 44.45 mm outside diameter stainless steel tubes of ~2 m length for all stages of evaporation. There are a few vessels with longer tubes (up to 2.8 m) and smaller and larger diameters (38.1 and 50.8 mm). Queensland University of Technology is undertaking a study to investigate the heat transfer performance of tubes of different lengths and diameters for the whole range of process conditions typically encountered in the evaporator set. Incorporation of these results into practical evaporator designs requires an understanding of the cost implications for constructing evaporator vessels with calandrias having tubes of different dimensions. Cost savings are expected for tubes of smaller diameter and longer length in terms of material, labour and installation costs in the factory. However these savings must be considered in terms of the heat transfer area requirements for the evaporation duty, which will likely be a function of the tube dimensions. In this paper a capital cost model is described which provides a relative cost of constructing and installing Robert evaporators of the same heating surface area but with different tube dimensions. Evaporators of 2000, 3000, 4000 and 5000 m2 are investigated. This model will be used in conjunction with the heat transfer efficiency data (when available) to determine the optimum tube dimensions for a new evaporator at a specified evaporation duty. Consideration is also given to other factors such as juice residence time (and implications for sucrose degradation and control) and droplet de-entrainment in evaporators of different tube dimensions.

‘Only a pawn in their game’ : crime, risk and politics in the case of Robert Fardon

In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first prisoner to be detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003 (Qld), the first of the new generation preventive detention laws enacted in Australia and directed at keeping sex offenders in prison or under supervision beyond the expiry of their sentences where a court decides, on the basis of psychiatric assessments, that unconditional release would create an unacceptable risk to the community. A careful examination of Fardon’s case shows the extent to which the administration of the regime was from the outset governed by politics and political calculation rather than the logic of risk management and community protection. In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first person detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003 (Qld) (hereafter DPSOA), a newly enacted Queensland law aimed at the preventive detention of sex offenders. It was the first of a new generation of such laws introduced in Australia, now also in force in NSW, Western Australia and Victoria. The laws have been widely criticized by lawyers, academics and others (Keyzer and McSherry 2009; Edgely 2007). In this article I want to focus on the details of how the Queensland law was administered in Fardon’s case, he being perhaps the most well-known prisoner detained under such laws and certainly the longest held. It will show, I hope, that seemingly abstract rule of law principles invoked by other critics are not simply abstract: they afford a crucial practical safeguard against the corruption of criminal justice in which the ends both of community protection and of justice give way to opportunistic exploitation of ‘the mythic resonance of crime and punishment for electoral purposes’ (Scheingold 1998: 888).

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

High-throughput bone and cartilage micropellet manufacture, followed by assembly of micropellets into biphasic osteochondral tissue

Engineered biphasic osteochondral tissues may have utility in cartilage defect repair. As bone-marrow-derived mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSC) have the capacity to make both bone-like and cartilage-like tissues, they are an ideal cell population for use in the manufacture of osteochondral tissues. Effective differentiation of MSC to bone-like and cartilage-like tissues requires two unique medium formulations and this presents a challenge both in achieving initial MSC differentiation and in maintaining tissue stability when the unified osteochondral tissue is subsequently cultured in a single medium formulation. In this proof-of-principle study, we used an in-house fabricated microwell platform to manufacture thousands of micropellets formed from 166 MSC each. We then characterized the development of bone-like and cartilage-like tissue formation in the micropellets maintained for 8–14 days in sequential combinations of osteogenic or chondrogenic induction medium. When bone-like or cartilage-like micropellets were induced for only 8 days, they displayed significant phenotypic changes when the osteogenic or chondrogenic induction medium, respectively, was swapped. Based on these data, we developed an extended 14-day protocol for the pre-culture of bone-like and cartilage-like micropellets in their respective induction medium. Unified osteochondral tissues were formed by layering 12,000 osteogenic micropellets and 12,000 chondrogenic micropellets into a biphasic structure and then further culture in chondrogenic induction medium. The assembled tissue was cultured for a further 8 days and characterized via histology. The micropellets had amalgamated into a continuous structure with distinctive bone-like and cartilage-like regions. This proof-of-concept study demonstrates the feasibility of micropellet assembly for the formation of osteochondral-like tissues for possible use in osteochondral defect repair.

The rapid manufacture of uniform composite multicellular-biomaterial micropellets, their assembly into macroscopic organized tissues, and potential applications in cartilage tissue engineering

We and others have published on the rapid manufacture of micropellet tissues, typically formed from 100-500 cells each. The micropellet geometry enhances cellular biological properties, and in many cases the micropellets can subsequently be utilized as building blocks to assemble complex macrotissues. Generally, micropellets are formed from cells alone, however when replicating matrix-rich tissues such as cartilage it would be ideal if matrix or biomaterials supplements could be incorporated directly into the micropellet during the manufacturing process. Herein we describe a method to efficiently incorporate donor cartilage matrix into tissue engineered cartilage micropellets. We lyophilized bovine cartilage matrix, and then shattered it into microscopic pieces having average dimensions < 10 μm diameter; we termed this microscopic donor matrix "cartilage dust (CD)". Using a microwell platform, we show that ~0.83 μg CD can be rapidly and efficiently incorporated into single multicellular aggregates formed from 180 bone marrow mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSC) each. The microwell platform enabled the rapid manufacture of thousands of replica composite micropellets, with each micropellet having a material/CD core and a cellular surface. This micropellet organization enabled the rapid bulking up of the micropellet core matrix content, and left an adhesive cellular outer surface. This morphological organization enabled the ready assembly of the composite micropellets into macroscopic tissues. Generically, this is a versatile method that enables the rapid and uniform integration of biomaterials into multicellular micropellets that can then be used as tissue building blocks. In this study, the addition of CD resulted in an approximate 8-fold volume increase in the micropellets, with the donor matrix functioning to contribute to an increase in total cartilage matrix content. Composite micropellets were readily assembled into macroscopic cartilage tissues; the incorporation of CD enhanced tissue size and matrix content, but did not enhance chondrogenic gene expression.