Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Fatty acid synthesis and pyruvate metabolism pathways remain active in dihydroartemisinin induced dormant ring stages of Plasmodium falciparum

Artemisinin (ART) based combination therapy (ACT) is used as the first line treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria worldwide. However, despite high potency and rapid action there is a high rate of recrudescence associated with ART monotherapy or ACT long before the recent emergence of ART resistance. ART induced ring stage dormancy and recovery has been implicated as possible cause of recrudescence; however, little is known about the characteristics of dormant parasites including whether dormant parasites are metabolically active. We investigated the transcription of 12 genes encoding key enzymes in various metabolic pathways in P. falciparum during dihydroartemisinin (DHA) induced dormancy and recovery. Transcription analysis showed an immediate down regulation for 10 genes following exposure to DHA, but continued transcription of 2 genes encoding apicoplast and mitochondrial proteins. Transcription of several additional genes encoding apicoplast and mitochondrial proteins, particularly genes encoding enzymes in pyruvate metabolism and fatty acid synthesis pathways, were also maintained. Additions of inhibitors for biotin acetyl CoA carbozylase and enoyl-acyl carrier reductase of the fatty acid synthesis pathways delayed the recovery of dormant parasites by 6 and 4 days, respectively following DHA treatment. Our results demonstrate most metabolic pathways are down regulated in DHA induced dormant parasites. In contrast fatty acid and pyruvate metabolic pathways remain active. These findings highlight new targets to interrupt recovery of parasites from ART-induced dormancy and to reduce the rate of recrudescence following ART treatment.

Conceptual framework for understanding the demand for emergency health services

Background & Objectives Emergency health services (EHS) throughout the world are increasingly congested. As more people use EHS, factors such as population growth and aging cannot fully explain this increase. Also, focus on patients’ clinical characteristics ignores the role that attitudinal and perceptual factors and motivations play in directing their decisions and actions. The aim of this study is to review and synthesize an integrated conceptual framework for understanding social psychological factors underpinning demand for EHS. Methodology A comprehensive search and review of empirical and theoretical studies about the utilization of EHS was conducted using major medical, health, social and behavioral sciences databases. Results A small number of studies used a relevant conceptual framework (e.g. Health Services Utilization Model or Health Belief Model) or their components to analyze patients’ decision to use EHS. The studies evidenced that demand was affected by perceived severity of the condition; perceived costs and benefits (e.g. availability, accessibility and affordability of alternative services); experience, preference and knowledge; perceived and actual social support; and demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, marital and living circumstances, place of residence). Conclusions Conceptual models that are commonly used in areas like social and behavioral sciences have rarely been applied in the EHS utilization field. Understanding patients’ decision-making and associated factors will lay the groundwork for identification of the evidence to inform improved policy responses and the development of demand management strategies. An integrated conceptual framework will be introduced as part of this study.

Satisfaction with emergency department service among non-English-speaking background patients

Objective: The present study aims to investigate non-English-speaking background (NESB) patients’ satisfaction with hospital ED service and compare it with that of English-speaking background (ESB) patients. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted at the ED of an adult tertiary referral hospital in Queensland, Australia. Patients assigned an Australasian Triage Scale score of 3, 4 or 5 were surveyed in the ED, before and after their ED service. Pearson χ2- test and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the differences between the ESB and NESB groups in terms of patient-reported satisfaction. Results: In total, 828 patients participated in the present study. Although the overall satisfaction with the service was high – 95.1% (ESB) and 90.5% (NESB) – the NESB patients who did not use an interpreter were less satisfied with their ED service than the ESB patients (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3–0.8, P = 0.013). The promptness of service received the lowest satisfaction rates (ESB 85.4% [82.4–88.0], NESB 74.5% [68.5– 79.7], P < 0.001), whereas courtesy and friendliness received the highest satisfaction rates (ESB 98.8 [97.6–99.4], NESB 97.0 [93.9–98.5], P = 0.063). All participants reported the promptness of service (33.5%), quality and professional care (18.5%) and communication (17.6%) as the most important elements of ED service. Conclusion: The NESB patients were significantly less satisfied than the ESB patients with the ED service. Use of an interpreter improved the NESB patients’ level of satisfaction. Further research is required to examine what NESB patients’ expectations of ED service are.

Validation of a framework for measuring hospital disaster resilience using factor analysis

Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as “the ability of hospitals to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining and surging essential health services, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one.” This article aims to provide a framework which can be used to comprehensively measure hospital disaster resilience. An evaluation framework for assessing hospital resilience was initially proposed through a systematic literature review and Modified-Delphi consultation. Eight key domains were identified: hospital safety, command, communication and cooperation system, disaster plan, resource stockpile, staff capability, disaster training and drills, emergency services and surge capability, and recovery and adaptation. The data for this study were collected from 41 tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province in China, using a specially designed questionnaire. Factor analysis was conducted to determine the underpinning structure of the framework. It identified a four-factor structure of hospital resilience, namely, emergency medical response capability (F1), disaster management mechanisms (F2), hospital infrastructural safety (F3), and disaster resources (F4). These factors displayed good internal consistency. The overall level of hospital disaster resilience (F) was calculated using the scoring model: F = 0.615F1 + 0.202F2 + 0.103F3 + 0.080F4. This validated framework provides a new way to operationalise the concept of hospital resilience, and it is also a foundation for the further development of the measurement instrument in future studies.

Disaster resilience in tertiary hospitals : a cross-sectional survey in Shandong Province, China

Background: Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as a hospital’s ability to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining critical functions, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one. This study aims to explore the status of resilience among tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province, China. Methods: A stratified random sample (n = 50) was derived from tertiary A, tertiary B, and tertiary C hospitals in Shandong Province, and was surveyed by questionnaire. Data on hospital characteristics and 8 key domains of hospital resilience were collected and analysed. Variables were binary, and analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies. Results: A response rate of 82% (n = 41) was attained. Factor analysis identified four key factors from eight domains which appear to reflect the overall level of disaster resilience. These were hospital safety, disaster management mechanisms, disaster resources and disaster medical care capability. The survey demonstrated that in regard to hospital safety, 93% had syndromic surveillance systems for infectious diseases and 68% had evaluated their safety standards. In regard to disaster management mechanisms, all had general plans, while only 20% had specific plans for individual hazards. 49% had a public communication protocol and 43.9% attended the local coordination meetings. In regard to disaster resources, 75.6% and 87.5% stockpiled emergency drugs and materials respectively, while less than a third (30%) had a signed Memorandum of Understanding with other hospitals to share these resources. Finally in regard to medical care, 66% could dispatch an on-site medical rescue team, but only 5% had a ‘portable hospital’ function and 36.6% and 12% of the hospitals could surge their beds and staff capacity respectively. The average beds surge capacity within 1 day was 13%. Conclusions: This study validated the broad utility of a framework for understanding and measuring the level of hospital resilience. The survey demonstrated considerable variability in disaster resilience arrangements of tertiary hospitals in Shandong province, and the difference between tertiary A hospitals and tertiary B hospitals was also identified in essential areas.

Development and pilot study of the Primary Care Practice Improvement Tool (PC-PIT) : an innovative approach

Objective To assess the usability and validity of the Primary Care Practice Improvement Tool (PC-PIT), a practice performance improvement tool based on 13 key elements identified by a systematic review. It was co-created with a range of partners and designed specifically for primary health care. Design This pilot study examined the PC-PIT using a formative assessment framework and mixed-methods research design. Setting and participants Six high-functioning general practices in Queensland, Australia, between February and July 2013. A total of 28 staff participated — 10 general practitioners, six practice or community nurses, 12 administrators (four practice managers; one business manager and eight reception or general administrative staff). Main outcome measures Readability, content validity and staff perceptions of the PC-PIT. Results The PC-PIT offers an appropriate and acceptable approach to internal quality improvement in general practice. Quantitative assessment scores and qualitative data from all staff identified two areas in which the PC-PIT required modification: a reduction in the indicative reading age, and simplification of governance-related terms and concepts. Conclusion The PC-PIT provides an innovative approach to address the complexity of organisational improvement in general practice and primary health care. This initial validation will be used to develop a suite of supporting, high-quality and free-to-access resources to enhance the use of the PC-PIT in general practice. Based on these findings, a national trial is now underway.

Psychotropics and challenging behaviour in people with an intellectual disability

Hilmer and Gnjidic drew attention to the pharmacological management of behavioural problems in nursing home residents, and called for a reduction in inappropriate prescribing and the development of alternative management strategies.1 We extend these concerns to another vulnerable population — people with intellectual disability. Historically, this population is one of the most medicated groups in modern society.

Crafting and retelling everyday lives : disabled people's contribution to bioethical concerns

This commentary draws out themes from the narrative symposium on “living with the label “disability”” from the perspective of auto/biography and critical disability studies in the humanities. It notes the disconnect between the experiences discussed in the stories and the preoccupations of bioethicists. Referencing Rosemarie Garland-Thompson’s recent work, it suggests that life stories by people usually described as “disabled” offer narrative, epistemic and ethical resources for bioethics. The commentary suggests that the symposium offers valuable conceptual tools and critiques of taken-for-granted terms like “dependency”. It notes that these narrators do not un–problematically embrace the term “disability”, but emphasize the need to redefine, strategically deploy or reject this term. Some accounts are explicitly critical of medical practitioners while others redefine health and wellbeing, emphasizing the need for reciprocity and respect for the knowledge of people with disability, including knowledge from their experience of “the variant body” (Leach Scully, 2008).

Identification of optimal epitopes for Plasmodium falciparum rapid diagnostic tests that target histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) represent important tools to diagnose malaria infection. To improve understanding of the variable performance of RDTs that detect the major target in Plasmodium falciparum, namely, histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), and to inform the design of better tests, we undertook detailed mapping of the epitopes recognized by eight HRP-specific monoclonal antibodies (MAbs). To investigate the geographic skewing of this polymorphic protein, we analyzed the distribution of these epitopes in parasites from geographically diverse areas. To identify an ideal amino acid motif for a MAb to target in HRP2 and in the related protein HRP3, we used a purpose-designed script to perform bioinformatic analysis of 448 distinct gene sequences from pfhrp2 and from 99 sequences from the closely related gene pfhrp3. The frequency and distribution of these motifs were also compared to the MAb epitopes. Heat stability testing of MAbs immobilized on nitrocellulose membranes was also performed. Results of these experiments enabled the identification of MAbs with the most desirable characteristics for inclusion in RDTs, including copy number and coverage of target epitopes, geographic skewing, heat stability, and match with the most abundant amino acid motifs identified. This study therefore informs the selection of MAbs to include in malaria RDTs as well as in the generation of improved MAbs that should improve the performance of HRP-detecting malaria RDTs.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Global sequence variation in the histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3 of Plasmodium falciparum: implications for the performance of malaria rapid diagnostic tests

Background Accurate diagnosis is essential for prompt and appropriate treatment of malaria. While rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer great potential to improve malaria diagnosis, the sensitivity of RDTs has been reported to be highly variable. One possible factor contributing to variable test performance is the diversity of parasite antigens. This is of particular concern for Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2)-detecting RDTs since PfHRP2 has been reported to be highly variable in isolates of the Asia-Pacific region. Methods The pfhrp2 exon 2 fragment from 458 isolates of P. falciparum collected from 38 countries was amplified and sequenced. For a subset of 80 isolates, the exon 2 fragment of histidine-rich protein 3 (pfhrp3) was also amplified and sequenced. DNA sequence and statistical analysis of the variation observed in these genes was conducted. The potential impact of the pfhrp2 variation on RDT detection rates was examined by analysing the relationship between sequence characteristics of this gene and the results of the WHO product testing of malaria RDTs: Round 1 (2008), for 34 PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Results Sequence analysis revealed extensive variations in the number and arrangement of various repeats encoded by the genes in parasite populations world-wide. However, no statistically robust correlation between gene structure and RDT detection rate for P. falciparum parasites at 200 parasites per microlitre was identified. Conclusions The results suggest that despite extreme sequence variation, diversity of PfHRP2 does not appear to be a major cause of RDT sensitivity variation.

No genetic bottleneck in Plasmodium falciparum wild-type Pfcrt alleles reemerging in Hainan Island, China, following high-level chloroquine resistance

Chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium falciparum was highly prevalent in Hainan, China, in the 1970s. Twenty-five years after cessation of chloroquine therapy, the prevalence of P. falciparum wild-type Pfcrt alleles has risen to 36% (95% confidence interval, 22.1 to 52.4%). The diverse origins of wild-type alleles indicate that there was no genetic bottleneck caused by high chloroquine resistance.

Parent's socio-economic status and social support as risks for child mortality : consideration of health equity in The Gambia

A matched case-control study of mortality to children under age five was conducted to consider associations with parents' socio-economic status and social support in the Farafenni Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS). Cases and controls were selected from Farafenni DSS, matched on date of birth, and parents were interviewed about personal resources and social networks. Parents with the lowest personal socio-economic status and social support were identified. Multivariate multinomial regression was used to consider whether the children of these parents were at increased risk of either infant or 1-4 mortality, in separate models using either parents' characteristics. There was no benefit found for higher SES or better social support with respect to child mortality. Children of fathers who had the poorest social support had lower 1-4 mortality risk (OR=0.52, p=0.037). Given that socio-economic status was not associated with child mortality, it seems unlikely that the explanation for the link between father's social support and mortality is linked to resource availability. Explanations for the risk effect of father's social ties may lie in decision-making around health maintenance and health care for children.