A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Information preferences for the evaluation of coastal development impacts on ecosystem services: A multi-criteria assessment in the Australian context

Ecosystem based management requires the integration of various types of assessment indicators. Understanding stakeholders' information preferences is important, in selecting those indicators that best support management and policy. Both the preferences of decision-makers and the general public may matter, in democratic participatory management institutions. This paper presents a multi-criteria analysis aimed at quantifying the relative importance to these groups of economic, ecological and socio-economic indicators usually considered when managing ecosystem services in a coastal development context. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied within two nationwide surveys in Australia, and preferences of both the general public and decision-makers for these indicators are elicited and compared. Results show that, on average across both groups, the priority in assessing a generic coastal development project is for the ecological assessment of its impacts on marine biodiversity. Ecological assessment indicators are globally preferred to both economic and socio-economic indicators regardless of the nature of the impacts studied. These results are observed for a significantly larger proportion of decision-maker than general public respondents, questioning the extent to which the general public's preferences are well reflected in decision-making processes.

A systematic review of instruments for assessment of capacity in activities of daily living in children with developmental co-ordination disorder

Children with developmental co-ordination disorder (DCD) face evident motor difficulties in activities of daily living (ADL). Assessment of their capacity in ADL is essential for diagnosis and intervention, in order to limit the daily consequences of the disorder. The aim of this study is to systematically review potential instruments for standardized and objective assessment of children's capacity in ADL, suited for children with DCD. As a first step, databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsycINFO were searched to identify studies that described instruments with potential for assessment of capacity in ADL. Second, instruments were included for review when two independent reviewers agreed that the instruments: (1) are standardized and objective; (2) assess at activity level and comprise items that reflect ADL, and; (3) are applicable to school-aged children that can move independently. Out of 1507 publications, 66 publications were selected, describing 39 instruments. Seven of these instruments were found to fulfil the criteria and were included for review: the Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Performance-2 (BOT2); the Do-Eat (Do-Eat); the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 (MABC2); the school-Assessment of Motor and Process Skills (schoolAMPS); the Tuffts Assessment of Motor Performance (TAMP); the Test of Gross Motor Development (TGMD); and the Functional Independence Measure for Children (WeeFIM). As a third step, for the included instruments, suitability for children with DCD was discussed based on the ADL comprised, ecological validity and other psychometric properties. We concluded that current instruments do not provide comprehensive and ecologically valid assessment of capacity in ADL as required for children with DCD.

Development and psychometric properties of the DCDDaily: a new test for clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living in children with developmental coordination disorder

Objective To develop the DCDDaily, an instrument for objective and standardized clinical assessment of capacity in activities of daily living (ADL) in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD), and to investigate its usability, reliability, and validity. Subjects Five to eight-year-old children with and without DCD. Main measures The DCDDaily was developed based on thorough review of the literature and extensive expert involvement. To investigate the usability (assessment time and feasibility), reliability (internal consistency and repeatability), and validity (concurrent and discriminant validity) of the DCDDaily, children were assessed with the DCDDaily and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test, and their parents filled in the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Checklist and Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire. Results 459 children were assessed (DCD group, n = 55; normative reference group, n = 404). Assessment was possible within 30 minutes and in any clinical setting. For internal consistency, Cronbach’s α = 0.83. Intraclass correlation = 0.87 for test–retest reliability and 0.89 for inter-rater reliability. Concurrent correlations with Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 Test and questionnaires were ρ = −0.494, 0.239, and −0.284, p < 0.001. Discriminant validity measures showed significantly worse performance in the DCD group than in the control group (mean (SD) score 33 (5.6) versus 26 (4.3), p < 0.001). The area under curve characteristic = 0.872, sensitivity and specificity were 80%. Conclusions The DCDDaily is a valid and reliable instrument for clinical assessment of capacity in ADL, that is feasible for use in clinical practice.

Gap acceptance behavior of mobile phone distracted drivers at roundabouts

While mobile phones have become ubiquitous in modern society, the use of mobile phones while driving is increasing at an alarming rate despite the associated crash risks. A significant safety concern is that driving while distracted by a mobile phone is more prevalent among young drivers, a less experienced driving cohort with elevated crash risk. The objective of this study was to examine the gap acceptance behavior of distracted young drivers at roundabouts. The CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator was used to test participants on a simulated gap acceptance scenario at roundabouts. Conflicting traffic from the right approach of a four-legged roundabout were programmed to have a series of vehicles having the gaps between them proportionately increased from two to six seconds. Thirty-two licensed young drivers drove the simulator under three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free and handheld phone conversations. Results show that distracted drivers started responding to the gap acceptance scenario at a distance closer to the roundabout and approached the roundabout at slower speeds. They also decelerated at faster rates to reduce their speeds prior to gap acceptance compared to non-distracted drivers. Although accepted gap sizes were not significantly different across phone conditions, differences in the safety margins at various gap sizes—measured by Post Encroachment Time (PET) between the driven vehicle and the conflicting vehicle—were statistically significant across phone conditions. PETs for distracted drivers were smaller across different gap sizes, suggesting a lower safety margin taken by distracted drivers compared to non-distracted drivers. The results aid in understanding how cognitive distraction resulting from mobile phone conversations while driving influences driving behavior during gap acceptance at roundabouts.

A multi-criteria approach for hospital capacity analysis

Hospitals are critical elements of health care systems and analysing their capacity to do work is a very important topic. To perform a system wide analysis of public hospital resources and capacity, a multi-objective optimization (MOO) approach has been proposed. This approach identifies the theoretical capacity of the entire hospital and facilitates a sensitivity analysis, for example of the patient case mix. It is necessary because the competition for hospital resources, for example between different entities, is highly influential on what work can be done. The MOO approach has been extensively tested on a real life case study and significant worth is shown. In this MOO approach, the epsilon constraint method has been utilized. However, for solving real life applications, with a large number of competing objectives, it was necessary to devise new and improved algorithms. In addition, to identify the best solution, a separable programming approach was developed. Multiple optimal solutions are also obtained via the iterative refinement and re-solution of the model.

The role of 25-hydroxyvitamin D deficiency in promoting insulin resistance and inflammation in patients with chronic kidney disease: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Approximately 50% of patients with stage 3 Chronic Kidney Disease are 25-hydroxyvitamin D insufficient, and this prevalence increases with falling glomerular filtration rate. Vitamin D is now recognised as having pleiotropic roles beyond bone and mineral homeostasis, with the vitamin D receptor and metabolising machinery identified in multiple tissues. Worryingly, recent observational data has highlighted an association between hypovitaminosis D and increased cardiovascular mortality, possibly mediated via vitamin D effects on insulin resistance and inflammation. The main hypothesis of this study is that oral Vitamin D supplementation will ameliorate insulin resistance in patients with Chronic Kidney Disease stage 3 when compared to placebo. Secondary hypotheses will test whether this is associated with decreased inflammation and bone/adipocyte-endocrine dysregulation. METHODS/DESIGN This study is a single-centre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. Inclusion criteria include; estimated glomerular filtration rate 30-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2); aged >or=18 on entry to study; and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <75 nmol/L. Patients will be randomised 1:1 to receive either oral cholecalciferol 2000IU/day or placebo for 6 months. The primary outcome will be an improvement in insulin sensitivity, measured by hyperinsulinaemic euglycaemic clamp. Secondary outcome measures will include serum parathyroid hormone, cytokines (Interleukin-1beta, Interleukin-6, Tumour Necrosis Factor alpha), adiponectin (total and High Molecular Weight), osteocalcin (carboxylated and under-carboxylated), peripheral blood mononuclear cell Nuclear Factor Kappa-B p65 binding activity, brachial artery reactivity, aortic pulse wave velocity and waveform analysis, and indirect calorimetry. All outcome measures will be performed at baseline and end of study. DISCUSSION To date, no randomised controlled trial has been performed in pre-dialysis CKD patients to study the correlation between vitamin D status with supplementation, insulin resistance and markers of adverse cardiovascular risk. We remain hopeful that cholecalciferol may be a safe intervention, with health benefits beyond those related to bone-mineral homeostasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12609000246280.

Researching effective approaches to cleaning in hospitals: Protocol of the REACH study, a multi-site stepped-wedge randomised trial

Background The Researching Effective Approaches to Cleaning in Hospitals (REACH) study will generate evidence about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a novel cleaning initiative that aims to improve the environmental cleanliness of hospitals. The initiative is an environmental cleaning bundle, with five interdependent, evidence-based components (training, technique, product, audit and communication) implemented with environmental services staff to enhance hospital cleaning practices. Methods/design The REACH study will use a stepped-wedge randomised controlled design to test the study intervention, an environmental cleaning bundle, in 11 Australian hospitals. All trial hospitals will receive the intervention and act as their own control, with analysis undertaken of the change within each hospital based on data collected in the control and intervention periods. Each site will be randomised to one of the 11 intervention timings with staggered commencement dates in 2016 and an intervention period between 20 and 50 weeks. All sites complete the trial at the same time in 2017. The inclusion criteria allow for a purposive sample of both public and private hospitals that have higher-risk patient populations for healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). The primary outcome (objective one) is the monthly number of Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemias (SABs), Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) and vancomycin resistant enterococci (VRE) infections, per 10,000 bed days. Secondary outcomes for objective one include the thoroughness of hospital cleaning assessed using fluorescent marker technology, the bio-burden of frequent touch surfaces post cleaning and changes in staff knowledge and attitudes about environmental cleaning. A cost-effectiveness analysis will determine the second key outcome (objective two): the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from implementation of the cleaning bundle. The study uses the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (iPARIHS) framework to support the tailored implementation of the environmental cleaning bundle in each hospital. Discussion Evidence from the REACH trial will contribute to future policy and practice guidelines about hospital environmental cleaning. It will be used by healthcare leaders and clinicians to inform decision-making and implementation of best-practice infection prevention strategies to reduce HAIs in hospitals. Trial registration Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12615000325​505

Malaria rapid diagnostic test performance: Results of WHO product testing of malaria RDTs: Round 6 (2014-2015)

Overview This report, published in conjunction with a summary overview of results of rounds 1–6, is the sixth in a series of laboratory-based evaluations of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria. It provides a comparative measure of their performance in a standardized way to distinguish between well and poorly performing tests. It can be used by malaria control programmes and guide WHO procurement recommendations for these diagnostic tools. The evaluation reported here was a joint project of the WHO Global Malaria Programme, the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND) and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) within the WHO-FIND Malaria RDT Evaluation Programme. The project was financed by FIND through a grant from UNITAID.

Significance of a short-term test drive for prospective plug-in electric vehicle consumers: An exploratory study

The test drive is a well-known step in car buying. In the emerging plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market, however, the influence of a pre-purchase test drive on a consumer's inclination to purchase is unknown. Policy makers and industry participants both are eager to understand what factors motivate vehicle consumers at the point-of-sale. A number of researchers have used choice models to shed light on consumer perceptions of PEVs, and others have investigated consumer change in disposition toward a PEV over the course of a trial, wherein test driving a PEV may take place over a number of consecutive days, weeks or months. However, there is little written on the impact of a short-term test drive - a typical experience at dealerships or public "ride-and-drive" events. The impact of a typical test drive, often measured in minutes of driving, is not well understood. This paper first presents a synthesis of the literature on the effect of PEV test drives as they relate to consumer disposition toward PEVs. An analysis of data obtained from an Australian case study whereby attitudinal and stated preference data were collected pre- and post- test drive at public "ride-and-drive" event held Brisbane, Queensland in March 2014 using a custom-designed iPad application. Motorists' perceptions and choice preferences around PEVs were captured, revealing the relative importance of their experience behind the wheel. Using the Australian context as a case-study, this paper presents an exploratory study of consumers' stated preferences toward PEVs both before and after a short test drive.

Eye movements and road hazard detection: Effects of blur and distractors

Purpose To examine the effects of optical blur, auditory distractors and age on eye movement patterns while performing a driving hazard perception test (HPT). Methods Twenty young (mean age 27.1 ± 4.6 years) and 20 older (73.3 ± 5.7 years) drivers with normal vision completed a HPT in a repeated-measures counterbalanced design while their eye movements were recorded. Testing was performed under two visual (best-corrected vision and with +2.00DS blur) and two distractor (with and without auditory distraction) conditions. Participants were required to respond to road hazards appearing in the HPT videos of real-world driving scenes and their hazard response times were recorded. Results Blur and distractors each significantly delayed hazard response time, by 0.42 and 0.76s respectively (p<0.05). A significant interaction between age and distractors indicated that older drivers were more affected by distractors than young drivers (response with distractors delayed by 0.96 and 0.60s respectively). There were no other two- or three-way interaction effect on response time. With blur, both groups fixated significantly longer on hazards before responding compared to best-corrected vision. In the presence of distractors, both groups exhibited delayed first fixation on the hazards and spent less time fixating on the hazards. There were also significant differences in eye movement characteristics between groups, where older drivers exhibited smaller saccades, delayed first fixation on hazards, and shorter fixation duration on hazards compared to the young drivers. Conclusions Collectively, the findings of delayed hazard response times and alterations in eye movement patterns with blur and distractors provide further evidence that visual impairment and distractors are independently detrimental to driving safety given that delayed hazard response times are linked to increased crash risk.