A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Evaluating the use of online synchronous communication to enhance learning in statistics

According to social constructivists, learners are active participants in constructing new knowledge in a social process where they interact with others. In these social settings teachers or more knowledgeable peers provide support. This research study investigated the contribution that an online synchronous tutorial makes to support teaching and learning of undergraduate introductory statistics offered by an Australian regional university at a distance. The introductory statistics course which served as a research setting in this study was a requirement of a variety of programs at the University, including psychology, business and science. Often students in these programs perceive this course to be difficult and irrelevant to their programs of study. Negative attitudes and associated anxiety mean that students often struggle with the content. While asynchronous discussion forums have been shown to provide a level of interaction and support, it was anticipated that online synchronous tutorials would offer immediate feedback to move students forward through ―stuck places.‖ At the beginning of the semester the researcher offered distance students in this course the opportunity to participate in a weekly online synchronous tutorial which was an addition to the usual support offered by the teaching team. This tutorial was restricted to 12 volunteers to allow sufficient interaction to occur for each of the participants. The researcher, as participant-observer, conducted the weekly tutorials using the University's interactive online learning platform, Wimba Classroom, whereby participants interacted using audio, text chat and a virtual whiteboard. Prior to the start of semester, participants were surveyed about their previous mathematical experiences, their perceptions of the introductory statistics course and why they wanted to participate in the online tutorial. During the semester, they were regularly asked pertinent research questions related to their personal outcomes from the tutorial sessions. These sessions were recorded using screen capture software and the participants were interviewed about their experiences at the end of the semester. Analysis of these data indicated that the perceived value of online synchronous tutorial lies in the interaction with fellow students and a content expert and with the immediacy of feedback given. The collaborative learning environment offered the support required to maintain motivation, enhance confidence and develop problemsolving skills in these distance students of introductory statistics. Based on these findings a model of online synchronous learning is proposed.

Ross River virus arthritis

“Epidemics” of a benign disease causing polyarthralgia and rash were first described in Australia in 1927.63 Following the recovery of the causative agent and the advent of serologic tests able to diagnose Ross River virus infection, epidemic polyarthritis has been recognized as endemic in Australia and has occurred as epidemics in numerous Pacific nations. Approximately 4000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis are reported in Australia each year, with a peak of 7800 cases in 1996. Some confusion has been generated recently by use of the term Ross River fever to describe clinical Ross River virus infections because fever does not develop in more than half of those with clinical disease.59 Additional confusion has been generated by efforts to describe any polyarthritis caused by an Australian arbovirus as epidemic polyarthritis. The term epidemic polyarthritis should be used to describe only clinical disease caused by Ross River virus.

Murray Valley Encephalitis

Outbreaks of an acute, severe, encephalitic illness, clinically similar to Japanese and St. Louis encephalitis, occurred in rural areas of southeastern Australia in 1917, 1918, 1922, 1925, 1951, and 1974[1,9,14-16] and in north and northwestern Australia in 1981, 1993, and 2000.[8,12,41] Approximately 420 cases were reported in these nine outbreaks.[41] They are thought to represent a single entity for which various names (Australian X disease, Murray Valley encephalitis, Australian encephalitis) have been used. Twenty-two cases were diagnosed in the 5 years between 2007 and 2011; three were fatal, and one of the fatalities occurred in a Canadian tourist on return from a holiday in northern Australia. Case-fatality rates, as high as 70 percent in the early years,[9,11] declined to 20 percent in the 1974 outbreak and have remained at about this level since then.[5,10,12] However, significant residual neurologic disability occurs in as many as 50 percent of survivors.[10,12] The presence of this disease in Papua New Guinea was confirmed in 1956.[20] The causative virus was transmitted to experimental animals as early as 1918,[6,11] although those strains could not be maintained. The definitive isolation and characterization of Murray Valley encephalitis virus in 1951[19] led to epidemiologic studies that suggested its survival in bird-mosquito cycles in northern Australia but not in the area of epidemic occurrence in southern Australia.[1] Murray Valley encephalitis is caused by Murray Valley encephalitis virus. In an effort to dissociate a disease from a specific locality, the term Australian encephalitis was proposed by residents of Murray Valley for the disease caused by Murray Valley encephalitis virus. Some researchers subsequently have attempted to expand the term Australian encephalitis to include encephalitis caused by any Australian arbovirus. Because the term Australian encephalitis has no scientific validity and is ambiguous, it should not be used.

Too early to proclaim the end of the war on childhood obesity

Parents winning childhood war on obesity, Australian Bureau of Statistics data reveals, screamed the headline. Sounds like a good news story to make every parent breathe a sigh of relief, but is it really true? The article in question quoted obesity expert and University of South Australia Professor Tim Olds, who argued that “the media and public health authorities are getting carried away” about childhood obesity. He pointed to the fact that recent ABS data showed rates of overweight and obesity in children plateaued between 2007/08 and between 2011/12. But that still means one in four Australian children is overweight or obese; it’s clear we still have a lot of work to do. As a nutritionist working with parents every day (both in practical obesity programs and in research into reducing this considerable health risk), I was concerned that the article could be taken at face value. Because there’s more, much more, to this story.

Targeting oxidative stress in cancer

Importance of the field: Reactive oxygen species (ROS) occur as natural by-products of oxygen metabolism and have important cellular functions. Normally, the cell is able to maintain an adequate balance between the formation and removal of ROS either via anti-oxidants or through the use specific enzymatic pathways. However, if this balance is disturbed, oxidative stress may occur in the cell, a situation linked to the pathogenesis of many diseases, including cancer. Areas covered in this review: HDACs are important regulators of many oxidative stress pathways including those involved with both sensing and coordinating the cellular response to oxidative stress. In particular aberrant regulation of these pathways by histone deacetylases may play critical roles in cancer progression. What the reader will gain: In this review we discuss the notion that targeting HDACs may be a useful therapeutic avenue in the treatment of oxidative stress in cancer, using chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), NSCLC and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as examples to illustrate this possibility. Take home message: Epigenetic mechanisms may be an important new therapeutic avenue for targeting oxidative stress in cancer. © 2010 Informa UK, Ltd.

Monitoring and benchmarking government policies and actions to improve the healthiness of food environments : a proposed Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index

Government action is essential to increase the healthiness of food environments and reduce obesity, diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and their related inequalities. This paper proposes a monitoring framework to assess government policies and actions for creating healthy food environments. Recommendations from relevant authoritative organizations and expert advisory groups for reducing obesity and NCDs were examined, and pertinent components were incorporated into a comprehensive framework for monitoring government policies and actions. A Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) was developed, which comprises a ‘policy’ component with seven domains on specific aspects of food environments, and an ‘infrastructure support’ component with seven domains to strengthen systems to prevent obesity and NCDs. These were revised through a week-long consultation process with international experts. Examples of good practice statements are proposed within each domain, and these will evolve into benchmarks established by governments at the forefront of creating and implementing food policies for good health. A rating process is proposed to assess a government's level of policy implementation towards good practice. The Food-EPI will be pre-tested and piloted in countries of varying size and income levels. The benchmarking of government policy implementation has the potential to catalyse greater action to reduce obesity and NCDs.

Interpersonal, intrapersonal, extrapersonal? Qualitatively investigating coordinative couplings between rowers in Olympic sculling

Coordinative couplings are commonly classified as interpersonal and intrapersonal. Interpersonal coordination is normally thought of as between organisms but a subset can also be considered where the co-actors movements are coupled to an environmental rhythm. This can be termed extrapersonal coordination. This study explores how coordination is achieved in a situation that demands that at least one actor makes use of extrapersonal sources. In this case multi-seat rowing, where one actor cannot see the other one behind them. A qualitative approach using experiential knowledge from expert rowers (N=9) and coaches (N=4) was used to examine how interpersonal coordination was achieved and maintained in 2 person rowing boats. It was reported that where possible, both rowers coordinated their movements by coupling with an invariant provided by the boat. This invariant is underpinned by perception of water flow past the boat; which is in turn used to determine changes in acceleration - 'rowing with the boat.' Bow seat also identified the rower in front and stroke seat identified the looming of the stern as viable alternative sources for coupling.

Cardiac safety concerns for ondansetron, an antiemetic commonly used for nausea linked to cancer treatment and following anaesthesia

Introduction: Ondansetron is a 5-HT3 receptor antagonist commonly used as an anti-emetic to prevent the nausea and vomiting associated with anti-cancer drugs, cancer radiotherapy, or postoperatively. Recently, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a warning for ondansetron due to a potential for prolongation of the QT interval of the electrocardiogram (ECG), a phenomenon that is associated with an increased risk of the potentially fatal arrhythmia torsade de pointes. Areas covered: We undertook a review of the cardiac safety of ondansetron. Our primary sources of information were PubMed (with downloading of full articles), and the internet. Expert opinion: The dose of ondansetron that the FDA has concerns about is 32 mg iv (or several doses that are equivalent to this), which is only used in preventing nausea and vomiting associated with cancer chemotherapy. This suggests that ondansetron may be safe in the lower doses used to prevent the nausea and vomiting in radiation treatment or postoperatively. However, as there is a report that a lower dose of ondansetron prolonged the QT interval in healthy volunteers, this needs to be clarified by the FDA. More research needs to be undertaken of the relationship between QT prolongation and torsades in order that the FDA can produce clear-cut evidence of pro-arrhythmic risk when introducing warnings for this.

Percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass surgery in subjects with type 2 diabetes : evaluation of: Farkouth ME, Domanski M, Sleeper LA, et al. Strategies for multivessel revascularization in patients with diabetes. N Engl J Med 2012;367(25):2375-84, and Contini GA, Nicolini F, Fortuna D, et al. Five-year outcomes of surgical or percutaneous myocardial revascularization in diabetic patients. Int J Cardiol 2012. [Epub ahead of print]

There is debate as to whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) is the best procedure for subjects with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease requiring revascularization. There is some evidence that following these procedures there is less further revascularization with CABG than PCI in subjects with diabetes. Two recent studies; the FREEDOM (Future Revascularization Evaluation in patients with Diabetes mellitus: Optimal Management of Multivessel Disease) trial, and a trial using a real world diabetic population from a Registry, have shown that the benefits of CABG over PCI in subjects with type 2 diabetes extends to lower rates of death and myocardial infarct, in addition to lower rates of revascularization. However, the rates of stroke may be higher with CABG than PCI with drug-eluting stents in this population. Thus, if CABG is going to be preferred to PCI in subjects with type 2 diabetes and multivessel coronary disease, consideration should be given to how to reduce the rates of stroke with CABG.

Cardiac safety concerns for domperidone, an antiemetic and prokinetic, and galactogogue medicine

Introduction: Domperidone is a dopamine D2-receptor antagonist developed as an antiemetic and prokinetic agents. Oral domperidone is not approved in the US, but is used in many countries to treat nausea and vomiting, gastroparesis, and as a galactogogue (to promote lactation). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have issued a warning about the cardiac safety of domperidone. Areas covered: The authors undertook a review of the cardiac safety of oral domperidone. Expert opinion: The data from preclinical studies are unambiguous in identifying domperidone as able to produce marked hERG channel inhibition and action potential prolongation at clinically relevant concentrations. The compound’s propensity to augment instability of action potential duration and action potential triangulation are also indicative of proarrhythmic potential. Domperidone should not be administered to subjects with pre-existing QT prolongation/LQTS, subjects receiving drugs that inhibit CYP3A4, subjects with electrolyte abnormalities or with other risk factors for QT-prolongation. With these provisos, it is possible that domperidone may be used as a galactogogue without direct risk to healthy breast feeding women but more safety information should be sought in this situation. Also, more safety information is required regarding risk to breast feeding infants or before domperidone is routinely used in gastroparesis or gastroesphageal reflux in children.

Developing an evidence-based clinical pathway for the assessment, diagnosis and management of acute Charcot Neuro-Arthropathy : a systematic review

Background: Charcot Neuro-Arthropathy (CN) is one of the more devastating complications of diabetes. To the best of the authors' knowledge, it appears that no clinical tools based on a systematic review of existing literature have been developed to manage acute CN. Thus, the aim of this paper was to systematically review existing literature and develop an evidence-based clinical pathway for the assessment, diagnosis and management of acute CN in patients with diabetes. Methods: Electronic databases (Medline, PubMed, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane Library), reference lists, and relevant key websites were systematically searched for literature discussing the assessment, diagnosis and/or management of acute CN published between 2002-2012. At least two independent investigators then quality rated and graded the evidence of each included paper. Consistent recommendations emanating from the included papers were then fashioned in a clinical pathway. Results: The systematic search identified 267 manuscripts, of which 117 (44%) met the inclusion criteria for this study. Most manuscripts discussing the assessment, diagnosis and/or management of acute CN constituted level IV (case series) or EO (expert opinion) evidence. The included literature was used to develop an evidence-based clinical pathway for the assessment, investigations, diagnosis and management of acute CN. Conclusions: This research has assisted in developing a comprehensive, evidence-based clinical pathway to promote consistent and optimal practice in the assessment, diagnosis and management of acute CN. The pathway aims to support health professionals in making early diagnosis and providing appropriate immediate management of acute CN, ultimately reducing its associated complications such as amputations and hospitalisations.

Is the clinical Queensland High Risk Foot Form valid or reliable for research?

Background High-risk foot complications such as neuropathy, ischaemia, deformity, infections, ulcers and amputations consume considerable health care resources and typically result from chronic diseases. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and reliability of a Queensland High Risk Foot Form (QHRFF) tool. Methods Phase one involved developing a QHRFF using an existing diabetes high-risk foot tool, literature search, expert panel and several state-wide stakeholder groups. Phase two tested the criterion-related validity along with inter- and intra-rater reliability of the final QHRFF. Three cohorts of patients (n = 94) and four clinicians, representing different levels of expertise, were recruited. Validity was determined by calculating sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). Kappa and intra-class correlation (ICC) statistics were used to establish reliability. Results A QHRFF tool containing 46-items across seven domains was developed and endorsed. The majority of QHRFF items achieved moderate-to-perfect validity (PPV = 0.71 – 1) and reliability (Kappa/ICC = 0.41 – 1). Items with weak validity and/or reliability included those identifying health professionals previously attending the patient, other (non-listed) co-morbidity, previous foot ulcer, foot deformity, optimum offloading and optimum footwear. Conclusions The QHRFF had moderate-to-perfect validity and reliability across the majority of items, particularly identifying individual co-morbidities and foot complications. Items with weak validity or reliability need to be re-defined or removed. Overall, the QHRFF appears to be a valid and reliable tool to assess, collect and measure clinical data pertaining to high-risk foot complications for clinical or research purposes.