Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge

1. In conservation decision-making, we operate within the confines of limited funding. Furthermore, we often assume particular relationships between management impact and our investment in management. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty - there is model uncertainty. We investigate how these two fundamentally limiting factors in conservation management, money and knowledge, impact optimal decision-making. 2. We use information-gap decision theory to find strategies for maximizing the number of extant subpopulations of a threatened species that are most immune to failure due to model uncertainty. We thus find a robust framework for exploring optimal decision-making. 3. The performance of every strategy decreases as model uncertainty increases. 4. The strategy most robust to model uncertainty depends not only on what performance is perceived to be acceptable but also on available funding and the time horizon over which extinction is considered. 5. Synthesis and applications. We investigate the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that subpopulation triage can be a natural consequence of robust decision-making. We highlight the need for managers to consider triage not as merely giving up, but as a tool for ensuring species persistence in light of the urgency of most conservation requirements, uncertainty and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park. © 2008 The Authors.

Resource allocation in two species systems: Is it worth acknowledging species interactions?

It is becoming increasingly popular to consider species interactions when managing ecological foodwebs. Such an approach is useful in determining how management can affect multiple species, with either beneficial or detrimental consequences. Identifying such actions is particularly valuable in the context of conservation decision making as funding is severely limited. This paper outlines a new approach that simplifies the resource allocation problem in a two species system for a range of species interactions: independent, mutualism, predator-prey, and competitive exclusion. We assume that both species are endangered and we do not account for decisions over time. We find that optimal funding allocation is to the conservation of the species with the highest marginal gain in expected probability of survival and that, across all except mutualist interaction types, optimal conservation funding allocation differs between species. Loss in efficiency from ignoring species interactions was most severe in predator-prey systems. The funding problem we address, where an ecosystem includes multiple threatened species, will only become more commonplace as increasing numbers of species worldwide become threatened. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Understanding expectations with multiple controllers in an augmented reality videogame

Player experiences and expectations are connected. The presumptions players have about how they control their gameplay interactions may shape the way they play and perceive videogames. A successfully engaging player experience might rest on the way controllers meet players' expectations. We studied player interaction with novel controllers on the Sony PlayStation Wonderbook, an augmented reality (AR) gaming system. Our goal was to understand player expectations regarding game controllers in AR game design. Based on this preliminary study, we propose several interaction guidelines for hybrid input from both augmented reality and physical game controllers

Optimizing preventative maintenance strategies for linear assets

Linear assets are engineering infrastructure, such as pipelines, railway lines, and electricity cables, which span long distances and can be divided into different segments. Optimal management of such assets is critical for asset owners as they normally involve significant capital investment. Currently, Time Based Preventive Maintenance (TBPM) strategies are commonly used in industry to improve the reliability of such assets, as they are easy to implement compared with reliability or risk-based preventive maintenance strategies. Linear assets are normally of large scale and thus their preventive maintenance is costly. Their owners and maintainers are always seeking to optimize their TBPM outcomes in terms of minimizing total expected costs over a long term involving multiple maintenance cycles. These costs include repair costs, preventive maintenance costs, and production losses. A TBPM strategy defines when Preventive Maintenance (PM) starts, how frequently the PM is conducted and which segments of a linear asset are operated on in each PM action. A number of factors such as required minimal mission time, customer satisfaction, human resources, and acceptable risk levels need to be considered when planning such a strategy. However, in current practice, TBPM decisions are often made based on decision makers’ expertise or industrial historical practice, and lack a systematic analysis of the effects of these factors. To address this issue, here we investigate the characteristics of TBPM of linear assets, and develop an effective multiple criteria decision making approach for determining an optimal TBPM strategy. We develop a recursive optimization equation which makes it possible to evaluate the effect of different maintenance options for linear assets, such as the best partitioning of the asset into segments and the maintenance cost per segment.

A framework for identification of similarities between multiple algorithms

This thesis in software engineering presents a novel automated framework to identify similar operations utilized by multiple algorithms for solving related computing problems. It provides a new effective solution to perform multi-application based algorithm analysis, employing fundamentally light-weight static analysis techniques compared to the state-of-art approaches. Significant performance improvements are achieved across the objective algorithms through enhancing the efficiency of the identified similar operations, targeting discrete application domains.

Interactive relationships among multiple dimensions of professional commitment: Implications for stress outcomes in lawyers

The purpose of this study was to examine the main and interactive effects of four dimensions of professional commitment on strain (i.e., depression, anxiety, perceived health status, and job dissatisfaction) for a sample of 176 law professionals. The study utilized a two-wave design in which professional commitment and strain were measured at Time 1 and strain was measured again at Time 2 (T2), 2 months later. A significant two-way interaction indicated that high affective commitment was related to less T2 job dissatisfaction only for lawyers with low accumulated costs. A significant four-way interaction indicated that high affective professional commitment was only related to fewer symptoms of T2 anxiety for lawyers with high normative professional commitment and both low limited alternatives and accumulated costs. A similar pattern of results emerged in regard to T2 perceived health status. The theoretical and practical implications of these results for career counselors are discussed.

Towards making informed decisions on selecting promising work zone safety treatments

Lack of detailed and accurate safety records on incidents in Australian work zones prevents a thorough understanding of the relevant risks and hazards. Consequently it is difficult to select appropriate treatments for improving the safety of roadworkers and motorists alike. This paper outlines development of a conceptual framework for making informed decisions about safety treatments by: 1) identifying safety issues and hazards in work zones; 2) understanding the attitudes and perceptions of both roadworkers and motorists; 3) reviewing the effectiveness of work zone safety treatments according to existing research, and; 4) incorporating local expert opinion on the feasibility and usefulness of the safety treatments. Using data collected through semi-structured interviews with roadwork personnel and online surveys of Queensland drivers, critical safety issues were identified. The effectiveness of treatments for addressing the issues was understood through rigorous literature review and consultations with local road authorities. Promising work zone safety treatments include enforcement, portable rumble strips, perceptual measures to imply reduced lane width, automated or remotely-operated traffic lights, end of queue measures, and more visible and meaningful signage.

Inventory of pedagogy and practice: Confirmatory factor analysis of multiple facets of teaching

Student perceptions of teaching have often been used in tertiary education for evaluation purposes. However, there is a paucity of research on the validity, reliability, and applicability of instruments that cover a wide range of student perceptions of pedagogies and practices in high school settings for descriptive purposes. The study attempts to validate an inventory of pedagogy and practice (IPP) that provides researchers and practitioners with a psychometrically sound instrument that covers the most salient factors related to teaching. Using a sample of students (N = 1515) from 39 schools in Singapore, 14 factors about teaching in English lessons from the students’ perspective were tested with confirmatory factor analysis (classroom task goal, structure and clarity, curiosity and interest, positive class climate, feedback, questioning, quality homework, review of students’ work, conventional teaching, exam preparation, behaviour management, maximizing learning time, student-centred pedagogy, and subject domain teaching). Two external criterion factors were used to further test the IPP factor structure. The inventory will enable teachers to understand more about their teaching and researchers to examine how teaching may be related to learning outcomes.

Effective communication during disasters: What effects community decision making & action?

Study/Objective This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. Background In recent years, media reports have consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under stress. This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency instruction. Methods To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for compliance improvement. Results Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. Conclusion The research described here will contribute improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and multiple channels of communication including social media.

Multiple perspectives on quality of life for residents with dementia in long term care facilities: Protocol for a comprehensive Australian study

Background Dementia is a chronic illness without cure or effective treatment, which results in declining mental and physical function and assistance from others to manage activities of daily living. Many people with dementia live in long term care facilities, yet research into their quality of life (QoL) was rare until the last decade. Previous studies failed to incorporate important variables related to the facility and care provision or to look closely at the daily lives of residents. This paper presents a protocol for a comprehensive, multi-perspective assessment of QoL of residents with dementia living in long term care in Australia. A secondary aim is investigating the effectiveness of self-report instruments for measuring QoL. Methods The study utilizes a descriptive, mixed methods design to examine how facility, care staff, and resident factors impact QoL. Over 500 residents with dementia from a stratified, random sample of 53 facilities are being recruited. A sub-sample of 12 residents is also taking part in qualitative interviews and observations. Conclusions This national study will provide a broad understanding of factors underlying QoL for residents with dementia in long term care. The present study uses a similar methodology to the US-based Collaborative Studies of Long Term Care (CS-LTC) Dementia Care Study, applying it to the Australian setting.

Effective communication during disasters

This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. In recent years, media reports have consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under stress. This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency instruction. To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for compliance improvement. Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. The research described here will contribute improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and multiple channels of communication including social media.

Global environmental emissions estimate: Application of multiple imputation

A new database called the World Resource Table is constructed in this study. Missing values are known to produce complications when constructing global databases. This study provides a solution for applying multiple imputation techniques and estimates the global environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO2, SO2, PM10, and BOD. Policy implications for each type of emission are derived based on the results of the EKC using WRI. Finally, we predicted the future emissions trend and regional share of CO2 emissions. We found that East Asia and South Asia will be increasing their emissions share while other major CO2 emitters will still produce large shares of the total global emissions.

Women's perceptions of communication in pregnancy and childbirth: Influences on participation and satisfaction with care

In this study, 3531 Queensland women, who had recently given birth, completed a questionnaire that included questions about their participation in decision making during pregnancy, their ratings of client centred care and perceived quality of care. These data tested a version of Street’s (2001) linguistic model of patient participation in care (LMOPPC), adapted to the maternity context. We investigated how age and education influenced women’s perceptions of their participation and quality of care. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that women’s perceived ability to make decisions, and the extent of client-centred communication with maternity care providers were the most influential predictors of participation and perceived quality of care. Participation in care predicted perceived quality of care, but the influence of client-centred communication by a care provider and a woman’s confidence in decision making were stronger predictors of perceived quality of care. Age and education level were not important predictors. These findings extend and support the use of LMOPPC in the maternity context.

Use of online health information to manage children’s health care: A prospective study investigating parental decisions

Background The use of the internet to access information is rapidly increasing; however, the quality of health information provided on various online sites is questionable. We aimed to examine the underlying factors that guide parents' decisions to use online information to manage their child's health care, a behaviour which has not yet been explored systematically. Methods Parents (N=391) completed a questionnaire assessing the standard theory of planned behaviour (TPB) measures of attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control (PBC), and intention as well as the underlying TPB belief-based items (i.e., behavioural, normative, and control beliefs) in addition to a measure of perceived risk and demographic variables. Two months later, consenting parents completed a follow-up telephone questionnaire which assessed the decisions they had made regarding their use of online information to manage their child's health care during the previous 2 months. Results We found support for the TPB constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and PBC as well as the additional construct of perceived risk in predicting parents' intentions to use online information to manage their child's health care, with further support found for intentions, but not PBC, in predicting parents' behaviour. The results of the TPB belief-based analyses also revealed important information about the critical beliefs that guide parents' decisions to engage in this child health management behaviour. Conclusions This theory-based investigation to understand parents' motivations and online information-seeking behaviour is key to developing recommendations and policies to guide more appropriate help-seeking actions among parents.

The origin of a large (>3km) maar volcano by coalescence of multiple shallow craters: Lake Purrumbete maar, southeastern Australia

Lake Purrumbete maar is located in the intraplate, monogenetic Newer Volcanics Province in southeastern Australia. The extremely large crater of 3000. m in diameter formed on an intersection of two fault lines and comprises at least three coalesced vents. The evolution of these vents is controlled by the interaction of the tectonic setting and the properties of both hard and soft rock aquifers. Lithics in the maar deposits originate from country rock formations less than 300. m deep, indicating that the large size of the crater cannot only be the result of the downwards migration of the explosion foci in a single vent. Vertical crater walls and primary inward dipping beds evidence that the original size of the crater has been largely preserved. Detailed mapping of the facies distributions, the direction of transport of base surges and pyroclastic flows, and the distribution of ballistic block fields, form the basis for the reconstruction of the complex eruption history,which is characterised by alternations of the eruption style between relatively dry and wet phreatomagmatic conditions, and migration of the vent location along tectonic structures. Three temporally separated eruption phases are recognised, each starting at the same crater located directly at the intersection of two local fault lines. Activity then moved quickly to different locations. A significant volcanic hiatus between two of the three phases shows that the magmatic system was reactivated. The enlargement of especially the main crater by both lateral and vertical growth led to the interception of the individual craters and the formation of the large circular crater. Lake Purrumbete maar is an excellent example of how complicated the evolution of large, seemingly simple, circular maar volcanoes can be, and raises the question if these systems are actually monogenetic.