Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Effects of transportation accessibility on residential property values: Application of spatial hedonic price model in Seoul, South Korea, metropolitan area

A number of studies have focused on estimating the effects of accessibility on housing values by using the hedonic price model. In the majority of studies, estimation results have revealed that housing values increase as accessibility improves, although the magnitude of estimates has varied across studies. Adequately estimating the relationship between transportation accessibility and housing values is challenging for at least two reasons. First, the monocentric city assumption applied in location theory is no longer valid for many large or growing cities. Second, rather than being randomly distributed in space, housing values are clustered in space—often exhibiting spatial dependence. Recognizing these challenges, a study was undertaken to develop a spatial lag hedonic price model in the Seoul, South Korea, metropolitan region, which includes a measure of local accessibility as well as systemwide accessibility, in addition to other model covariates. Although the accessibility measures can be improved, the modeling results suggest that the spatial interactions of apartment sales prices occur across and within traffic analysis zones, and the sales prices for apartment communities are devalued as accessibility deteriorates. Consistent with findings in other cities, this study revealed that the distance to the central business district is still a significant determinant of sales price.

Business Process Model Merging : An Approach to Business Process Consolidation

This paper addresses the problem of constructing consolidated business process models out of collections of process models that share common fragments. The paper considers the construction of unions of multiple models (called merged models) as well as intersections (called digests). Merged models are intended for analysts who wish to create a model that subsumes a collection of process models - typically representing variants of the same underlying process - with the aim of replacing the variants with the merged model. Digests, on the other hand, are intended for analysts who wish to identify the most recurring fragments across a collection of process models, so that they can focus their efforts on optimizing these fragments. The paper presents an algorithm for computing merged models and an algorithm for extracting digests from a merged model. The merging and digest extraction algorithms have been implemented and tested against collections of process models taken from multiple application domains. The tests show that the merging algorithm produces compact models and scales up to process models containing hundreds of nodes. Furthermore, a case study conducted in a large insurance company has demonstrated the usefulness of the merging and digest extraction operators in a practical setting.

Thinking spatially, acting collaboratively : a GIS-based health decision support system for improving the collaborative health-planning practice

The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges due to the lack of effective information, systems and the absence of a framework to make informed decisions. These challenges have been magnified by the rise of the healthy cities movement, consequently, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-driven decision-making. Some studies in the past have reported that the use of decision support systems (DSS) for planning healthy cities may lead to: increase collaboration between stakeholders and the general public, improve the accuracy and quality of the decision-making processes and improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers. These links have not yet been fully tested and only a handful of studies have evaluated the impact of DSS on stakeholders, policy-makers and health planners. This study suggests a framework for developing healthy cities and introduces an online Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based DSS for improving the collaborative health planning. It also presents preliminary findings of an ongoing case study conducted in the Logan-Beaudesert region of Queensland, Australia. These findings highlight the perceptions of decision-making prior to the implementation of the DSS intervention. Further, the findings help us to understand the potential role of the DSS to improve collaborative health planning practice.

A prioritised fuzzy constraint satisfaction approach to model agent negotiation for railway scheduling

With the recent regulatory reforms in a number of countries, railways resources are no longer managed by a single party but are distributed among different stakeholders. To facilitate the operation of train services, a train service provider (SP) has to negotiate with the infrastructure provider (IP) for a train schedule and the associated track access charge. This paper models the SP and IP as software agents and the negotiation as a prioritized fuzzy constraint satisfaction (PFCS) problem. Computer simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effects on the train schedule when the SP has different optimization criteria. The results show that by assigning different priorities on the fuzzy constraints, agents can represent SPs with different operational objectives.

Applying psychological model of personality to the study of leadership

Cloninger’s psychobiological model of temperament and character is a general model of personality that has been widely used in clinical psychology, but has seldom been applied in other domains. In this research we apply Cloninger’s model to the study of leadership. Our study comprised 81 participants who took part in a diverse range of small group tasks. Participants rotated through tasks and groups and rated each other on “emergent leadership.” As hypothesized, leader emergence tended to be consistent regardless of the specific tasks and groups. It was found that personality factors from Cloninger, Svrakic, and Przybeck’s (1993) model could explain trait-based variance in emergent leadership. Results also highlight the role of “cooperativeness” in the prediction of leadership emergence. Implications are discussed in terms of our theoretical understanding of trait-based leadership, and more generally in terms of the utility of Cloninger’s model in leadership research.

Weighted fairness with MCR guarantee and a general-purpose explicit rate allocation algorithm for ATM ABR service

In this paper, weighted fair rate allocation for ATM available bit rate (ABR) service is discussed with the concern of the minimum cell rate (MCR). Weighted fairness with MCR guarantee has been discussed recently in the literature. In those studies, each ABR virtual connection (VC) is first allocated its MCR, then the remaining available bandwidth is further shared among ABR VCs according to their weights. For the weighted fairness defined in this paper, the bandwidth is first allocated according to each VC's weight; if a VC's weighted share is less than its MCR, it should be allocated its MCR instead of the weighted share. This weighted fairness with MCR guarantee is referred to as extended weighted (EXW) fairness. Certain theoretical issues related to EXW, such as its global solution and bottleneck structure, are first discussed in the paper. A distributed explicit rate allocation algorithm is then proposed to achieve EXW fairness in ATM networks. The algorithm is a general-purpose explicit rate algorithm in the sense that it can realise almost all the fairness principles proposed for ABR so far whilst only minor modifications may be needed.

An enhanced explicit rate algorithm for ABR traffic control in ATM networks

A high performance, low computational complexity rate-based flow control algorithm which can avoid congestion and achieve fairness is important to ATM available bit rate service. The explicit rate allocation algorithm proposed by Kalampoukas et al. is designed to achieve max–min fairness in ATM networks. It has several attractive features, such as a fixed computational complexity of O(1) and the guaranteed convergence to max–min fairness. In this paper, certain drawbacks of the algorithm, such as the severe overload of an outgoing link during transient period and the non-conforming use of the current cell rate field in a resource management cell, have been identified and analysed; a new algorithm which overcomes these drawbacks is proposed. The proposed algorithm simplifies the rate computation as well. Compared with Kalampoukas's algorithm, it has better performance in terms of congestion avoidance and smoothness of rate allocation.

Integrated sustainable urban infrastructure management: the Brisbane urban growth model

Sustainable urban development and the liveability of a city are increasingly important issues in the context of land use planning and infrastructure management. In recent years, the promotion of sustainable urban development in Australia and overseas is facing various physical, socio-economic and environmental challenges. These challenges and problems arise from the lack of capability of local governments to accommodate the needs of the population and economy in a relatively short timeframe. The planning of economic growth and development is often dealt with separately and not included in the conventional land use planning process. There is also a sharp rise in the responsibilities and roles of local government for infrastructure planning and management. This increase in responsibilities means that local elected officials and urban planners have less time to prepare background information and make decisions. The Brisbane Urban Growth Model has proven initially successful in providing a dynamic platform to ensure timely and coordinated delivery of urban infrastructure. Most importantly, this model is the first step for local governments in moving toward a systematic approach to pursuing sustainable and effective urban infrastructure management.

An event-based traffic flow model for traffic control at railway junctions

This paper introduces an event-based traffic model for railway systems adopting fixed-block signalling schemes. In this model, the events of trains' arrival at and departure from signalling blocks constitute the states of the traffic flow. A state transition is equivalent to the progress of the trains by one signalling block and it is realised by referring to past and present states, as well as a number of pre-calculated look-up tables of run-times in the signalling block under various signalling conditions. Simulation results are compared with those from a time-based multi-train simulator to study the improvement of processing time and accuracy.

Developing a sustainability assessment model : the sustainable infrastructure, land-use, environment and transport model

Measuring the comparative sustainability levels of cities, regions, institutions and projects is an essential procedure in creating sustainable urban futures. This paper introduces a new urban sustainability assessment model: “The Sustainable Infrastructure, Land-use, Environment and Transport Model (SILENT)”. The SILENT Model is an advanced geographic information system and indicator-based comparative urban sustainability indexing model. The model aims to assist planners and policy makers in their daily tasks in sustainable urban planning and development by providing an integrated sustainability assessment framework. The paper gives an overview of the conceptual framework and components of the model and discusses the theoretical constructs, methodological procedures, and future development of this promising urban sustainability assessment model.

Bridging the gap between tertiary education and work : a model of situated learning in accountancy

In professions such as teaching, health sciences (medicine, nursing, allied health), and built environment (engineering), significant work-based learning through practica is an essential element before graduation. However, there is no such requirement in Accountancy. This thesis reports the findings of a qualitative case study of the development and implementation of a Workplace Learning Experience Program in Accountancy at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in Australia. The case study of this intervention, based on sociocultural learning theory, provides the grounds for the development of a new model of teaching and learning for accounting education. The survey and interview-based study documents the responses of two cohorts of university students and a group of employers to a work placement program. The study demonstrates that a 100 hour work placement in Accountancy has elements that enhance student learning. It demonstrates the potential value of the application of sociocultural theories of learning, especially the concept of situated learning involving legitimate peripheral participation (Lave & Wenger, 1991). This research establishes the theoretical base for a paradigm shift for the Accountancy profession to acknowledge work placements prior to graduation as a major element of learning. It is argued that the current model of accounting education requires reform to better align university and workplace learning.